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18 Feb 2008 : Column 362W—continued
Population
Mr. Clappison: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer (1) what the population density is of each region of England; [177451]
(2) how many estimates of population density in (a) the UK, (b) England, (c) Scotland, (d) Wales, (e) Northern Ireland and (f) the regions of England have been made since 1987; and what each estimate was; [177464]
(3) what assessment he has made of the likely effects of (a) migration on population density in England and (b) the increase in population density implied by Office for National Statistics population projections; [177465]
(4) what his most recent estimates are of the likely population densities of (a) the UK, (b) England, (c) Scotland, (d) Wales and (e) Northern Ireland in 2056; [177466]
(5) what the population densities are expected to be of each of the regions of England on the basis of the change in population forecast by the Government Actuary Department and the Office for National Statistics in (a) 2031 and (b) 2056; [177467]
(6) pursuant to the answer of 3 December 2007, Official Report, columns 1035-36W, on population, if he will rank the regions of England in terms of the population density of each region of the EU, giving the population density of each EU region according to the most recent available figures. [178317]
Angela Eagle: The information requested falls within the responsibility of the National Statistician, who has been asked to reply.
Letter from Colin Mowl, dated 18 February 2008:
The National Statistician has been asked to reply to your questions on population density:
what the population density is of each region of England. (177451)
how many estimates of population density in (a) the UK, (b) England, (c) Scotland, (d) Wales, (e) Northern Ireland and (f) the regions of England have been made since 1987; and what each estimate was. (177464)
what assessment has been made of the likely effects of (a) migration on population density in England and (b) the increase in population density implied by Office for National Statistics population projections. (177465)
what the most recent estimates are of the likely population densities of (a) the UK, (b) England, (c) Scotland, (d) Wales and (e) Northern Ireland in 2056. (177466)
what the population densities are expected to be of each of the regions of England on the basis of the change in population forecast by the Government Actuary Department and the Office for National Statistics in (a) 2031 and (b) 2056. (177467)
pursuant to the Answer of 3(rd) December 2007, Official Report, Columns 1035-6W, on population, what is the ranking of the regions of England in terms of the population density of each region of the EU, giving the population density of each EU region according to the most recent available figures. (178317)
I am replying in her absence.
Table 1 (parts 1 and 2), attached, shows population density figures calculated for each mid-year estimate from 1987 to 2006 for the UK and constituent countries, and regions in England. This includes (on part 2) the latest, mid-2006, estimate of densities for each region of England. In terms of the number of population density estimates, population estimates are produced annually but may be subject to later revision. Population density calculations are readily produced from these estimates and are normally published each year.
Population projections are demographic trend-based projections that indicate what the population levels of an area are likely to be if recently observed trends in fertility, mortality and migration were to continue. They take no account of future developments which may affect trends. Projections should not be seen as predictions. If, as in recent years, there is an increase in migration levels then the assumptions are changed to reflect this.
Table 2 below shows projected population densities for England for the period to mid-2031 based on the ONS 2006-based principal population projection. It also shows what the projected densities would be if net migration at each age was assumed to be zero from 2006 onwards, but making the same fertility and mortality assumptions as the principal projection.
| Table 2: Actual and projected population density of England, 2006 to 2031 | ||||||
| Person per sq km | ||||||
| 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | |
| Source: Office for National Statistics. | ||||||
Table 3, below shows the projected population density of the UK and constituent countries in 2056.
| Table 3: Projected population density of UK and constituent countries in mid-2056 | |
| Person per sq km | |
| Source: Office for National Statistics. | |
Table 4, below, shows the projected population density for English regions in 2029, the closest year available to your question. The most recent subnational population projections, published in September 2007, are 2004-based projections and cover a 25 year projection period from 2005 to 2029; this means that it is not possible to provide data for subnational population projections for 2031 or 2056. Please note that as these data are based on 2004 based subnational projections they are not directly comparable with the latest (2006-based) national projections given in Table 2. 2006 based subnational population projections are due to be published in June and these will allow calculation of population densities for 2031 on a comparable basis with the latest (2006 based) national projections.
| Table 4: Mid-2029 projected population density for England by Government office region | |
| Person per sq km | |
| Source: Office for National Statistics. | |
The ONS does not hold data on population density for EU regions (outside of the UK).
| Table 1, part 1: Population density for mid-year estimates, 1987 to 2006 | ||||||||||
| Person per sq km | ||||||||||
| 1987 | 1988 | 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | |
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