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18 Nov 2008 : Column 408W—continued
Greater Manchester
Mr. Pickles: To ask the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster how much funding (a) his Department, (b) its agencies and (c) Capacitybuilders has given to the Manchester-based organisations (i) Transport Pool and (ii) the Community Network for Manchester in the last 24 months. [233238]
Kevin Brennan: Neither the Cabinet Office, the Central Office of Information nor Capacitybuilders have awarded any grants to Transport Pool or the Community Network for Manchester in the last 24 months.
Immigration
Mr. Frank Field: To ask the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster what, on the basis of the most recent population projections, is the level of immigration at which the population of the UK would remain below 70 million on unchanged assumptions about birth rates and mortality. [236159]
Kevin Brennan: The information requested falls within the responsibility of the UK Statistics Authority. I have asked the authority to reply.
Letter from Karen Dunnell, dated November 2008:
As National Statistician I have been asked to reply to your question, regarding what, on the basis of the most recent population projections, is the level of immigration at which the population of the UK would remain below 70 million on unchanged assumptions about birth rates and mortality. (236159)
The information requested cannot be calculated directly from the latest national population projections published by the Office for National Statistics in October 2007. These projections included a principal (or central) projection, and a range of variant projections. The variant projections included a low migration variant and a zero migration (natural change only) variant.
In the principal projection, which assumes a long-term net inward flow of +190,000 persons a year, the population of the UK is projected to reach 70 million in 2028. In the low migration variant, which assumes a long-term net inward flow of +130,000 persons a year, the population of the UK is projected to reach 70 million in 2035. In the zero migration variant, which shows the effect of the principal assumptions of fertility and mortality in the absence of migration (or where migration inflows and outflows are equal at every age), the population of the UK is projected to reach almost 64 million in the year 2032 and then start to decline.
Assumptions for national population projections are conventionally expressed in terms of net migration (immigration less emigration) rather than for the gross flows separately. However, nominal immigration and emigration totals are used in the projection process mainly to enable plausible age distributions to be calculated for the assumed net migration totals.
It is apparent from the 2006-based projections that a level of annual net inward migration, somewhere between zero and +130,000, could be assumed at which the population would remain below 70 million. However, there are a range of combinations of immigration and emigration levels which could achieve this outcome. For example, a lower level of immigration could be used than in the 2006-based projections but with no change to emigration.
Alternatively, both immigration and emigration could be reduced. In practice, it is likely that lower levels of immigration than those experienced in recent years would, in time, lead to a reduction in the level of emigration as well.
Non-profit Making Associations
Margaret Moran: To ask the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster what further steps he plans to take to ensure that social enterprises compete for Government contracts on the same basis as other bidders. [236224]
Kevin Brennan: The Glover review is examining what further steps may be needed to remove barriers for small and medium sized enterprises and social enterprises in competing for public sector contracts. The review will be published shortly.
Plain English
David T.C. Davies: To ask the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster how many documents produced by his Department were submitted to the Plain English Campaign for approval for Crystal Mark status in each year since 2005; and how many documents achieved such status in each year. [230507]
Philip Davies: To ask the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster how many documents produced by the Cabinet Office were submitted to the Plain English Campaign for approval for Crystal Mark status in each year since 2005; and how many documents achieved such status in each year. [231113]
Mr. Watson: The information can be provided only at disproportionate cost.
Population
Mr. Clappison: To ask the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster what the most recent forecast is from the Office for National Statistics of the proportion of population growth (a) directly attributable and (b) indirectly attributable to migration in each of its projections of population size. [234137]
Kevin Brennan [holding answer 10 November 2008]: The information requested falls within the responsibility of the UK Statistics Authority. I have asked the authority to reply.
Letter from Karen Dunnell, dated November 2008:
As National Statistician I have been asked to reply to your question asking what the most recent forecast is of the proportion of population growth (a) directly attributable and (b) indirectly attributable to migration in each of its projections of population size (234137).
The most recent national population projections, based on mid-2006 population estimates, were published by the Office for National Statistics on 23 October 2007. The principal projection was produced using the main assumptions of future levels of fertility, mortality and migration. However, to give users of the projections an indication of the effect of higher or lower assumptions, a number of variant population projections were also produced.
An understanding of the overall effect of migration on population growth can be obtained by comparing the results of the principal and high and low migration variant projections with those of the ‘natural change’ (or zero migration) variant projection. Table A below gives projected components of population change for the UK in the period to 2031 in the principal projection, the high and low migration variants and the natural change variant projection.
Table B shows how the projected population growth to 2031 is broken down between the assumed level of net migration and projected natural change. Natural change is then further broken down into that projected in the absence of migration and the additional natural change from the assumed level of net migration. So, taking the principal projection for example, some 47 per cent of population growth is therefore directly attributable to the assumed number of net migrants. The remaining 53 per cent is attributable to projected natural increase (of which 31 per cent would occur in the absence of net migration and 23 per cent arises from the effect of net migration on natural change). In total, therefore, some 69 per cent of population growth in the period to 2031 in the principal projection is attributable, directly or indirectly, to future net migration.
Projected population figures are unchanged since my previous response to PQ 169089 (3 December 2007) concerning the same subject.
| Table B: Projected population growth by component, United Kingdom, 2006 -31 | |||
| High migration variant | Principal projection | Low migration variant | |
|
Additional natural change from assumed level of net migration | |||
|
Additional natural change from assumed level of net migration | |||
| Source: Migration and Population. Growth: http://www.gad.gov.uk/Demography_Data/Population/2006/methodology/mignote.asp | |||
Voluntary Work
Chris Ruane: To ask the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster what estimate he has made of the number of (a) formal and (b) informal volunteers in England and Wales in each of the last 15 years. [235567]
Kevin Brennan [holding answer 13 November 2008]: The number of formal and informal volunteers are measured each year by the Citizenship Survey, which began in 2001. There are no comparable figures available before this date. Figures since 2001 in England and Wales are as follows:
| England | ||||||||
| At least once a month | At least once a year | |||||||
| 2001 | 2003 | 2005 | 2007-08 | 2001 | 2003 | 2005 | 2007-08 | |
| (1) 2007-08 population figures based on Office for National Statistics 2006 mid-year estimates. | ||||||||
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