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Over many years, the Trade and Industry Committee, our predecessor, has conducted inquiries into prospects for trade and investment with individual countries. We have continued that process. However, this report is different. In late 2005 Turkey began accession talks with the European Union. Less than three years later, it now seems that some of our EU partners consider Turkish accession inherently undesirable. We strongly support the United Kingdom Government's position that Turkey's accession to the EU offers potential benefits for both sides, and that negotiations should continue with the aim of eventual inclusion of Turkey in the EU.
This not to underplay the difficulties and obstacles. The Irish "No" vote in the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty has led some European leaders to say there can be no enlargement without institutional reform. Turkey itself has faced severe political and constitutional difficulties this year. The country has a relatively large economy, but although it has taken great steps to increase economic growth and reduce inflation, GDP per capita still remains low and inflation high by developed country standards. Turkey's recent growth rate has been very strong, but is now slowing, and there can be no guarantee that Turkey will not suffer from the current global economic turbulence. Political and social reforms will be necessary. Experience from the accession of the new Eastern European member states demonstrates the sensitivities in the EU over flows of labour. At least initially, migration from Turkey will need to be carefully managed. The conflict over Cyprus also has to be resolved. However, the earliest accession can take place is 2014. Given time, these problems can and should be dealt with, but both sides must demonstrate that the will is there.
Our fear is that the negative signals recently sent out by some EU member states will reduce the political will to negotiate. This would be a political disaster. The EU will need to consider the relationship between institutional reform and enlargement, but it should do so in a considered way, rather than by immediately pulling the rug from under all three current candidate countries. Whatever its domestic challenges, Turkey has been pursuing reform. The current crisis, in which its Constitutional Court is considering the legitimacy of the ruling party, is at least taking place within the framework of law, although we recognise it may have extremely serious consequences. However, suspending or frustrating the accession negotiations will signal to a moderate, democratic, secular state that it can never be part of Europe. Whatever the reasons given for any suspension, the belief in Turkey would be likely to be that the country could not join purely because the majority of its population is Muslim. That is not a signal we believe should be given. The EU can afford neither the political nor the economic consequences of a decision by Turkey, however reluctant, to turn its back on Europe.
Whatever its difficulties, Turkey is a large economy, in a key strategic position, with high growth rates, a young population (compared with current EU member states) and sizeable investment flows. Europe risks turning its back on real opportunities whenever individual leaders signal their concerns about Turkish membership. EU accession will also help overcome some of the problems which currently hinder trade between the two parties.
There are risks in accession; but there are also opportunities. The accession negotiations will take years to come to fruition, and there will inevitably be difficulties which both sides will struggle to overcome. A wholehearted approach to accession talks does not mean that these obstacles can be brushed aside, but it increases the chances that they can be dealt with constructively, and that Turkey and the EU will develop their relationship of mutual respect and mutual benefit. The prospect of deepening this relationship still exists, but it is becoming increasingly strained. Turkey needs to be reassured that, if it demonstrates its commitment to negotiation and reform, that commitment will be fully matched by the EU and that the door to membership remains wide open.
We congratulate the Government on its consistent support for Turkey's membership, and hope that it will continue to make the case for Turkey as a future EU member state—and that it will do so both within the UK and throughout the EU. This country's strong support for Turkey's EU membership should give us a competitive advantage over some of our European competitors, just as ties of history and culture gives us an advantage in India. We believe it prudent to strive for a greater UK market share in Turkey now, in advance of accession and further economic reform, to avoid 'missing the boat' in Turkey as we only narrowly avoided 'missing the last train' in India.
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