Examination of Witnesses (Questions 200-219)
BERR AND UKTI
28 APRIL 2008
Q200 Chairman: You have made your
point.
Lord Jones of Birmingham: In terms
of the UK, as you know, I get a long haul, a short haul and a
regional visit in every single month. I came back from Romania
and Bulgaria last week and I am going up to Liverpool tonight.
On that part of the question, I have to say the support I have
received from the UK Government in me doing this job differently
and getting me enabled to get round the world and bang the drum
and attract inward investment and also promote British values
in the wider sense has been incredible because it has been a change
and a lot of people, the media especially, do not like change.
I have to say I have had no problem whatsoever from inside Government
on this. From the point of view generally of you saying has this
Government gone away from supporting business and do I find that
frustrating, I have not seen this Government do anything from
my point of view which has in any way harmed UKTI. In fact, if
anything, we had a very good settlement in the Comprehensive Spending
Review, better than a lot of other departments did. We have had
more people. Number 10 itself has been very supportive of my drive
in Britain for what UKTI does and also of course in terms of the
Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform and
what it is trying to do. From a wider point of view, do I find
they have been supportive in the way that I am trying to do this
job? I have had 100% support from the Prime Minister which is
why I am 100% supportive of him. What we agreed we would do last
July he has kept his word and I have kept mine.
Q201 Mr Binley: Forgive me, but you
have raised the Prime Minister and you will know what The Times
said about your ability to stay with this Government up to the
next election and through it. I believe that you being there is
a very important factor. Can you clarify whether what The Times
said was true or not?
Lord Jones of Birmingham: I was
incredibly surprised to see what I said given the front page headline
in The Times that day. It was old news and I had been saying
it publicly ever since I got the job, and there was nothing new
in it whatsoever and there was nothing that in any way was a change
of anything at all. I had always said that I would have a finite
position. I had always said that I would go before the next election.
That was when I had started the job, it was not anything I had
changed my mind or anything else. At the same time I had always
prided myself, and I still do, on my ability to take this job
away from the factionalism of party politics, and I have found
that very popular with the business community. I have to say the
Prime Minister's decision to allow me to do this job in a non-party
political way is one of the great things he has done to show support
of the business community. That was always how we agreed to do
it and I have to say he has kept his word and I have kept mine.
I was just amazed, it must have been a slow news day or they had
prejudices of their own they wished to fulfil, but to say I had
said it in a private meeting (and that implied that for some reason
it was secret), no. It was in April and even they said it was
a lunch in January. Get real, this was not sensational news, this
was not front-page news. I have to say if the person who had rung
up The Times and told them all about it had been true to
his word in terms of telling the whole content of what I have
said, I actually said what I have just told you, which is that
the Prime Minister has been very supportive of the way I am doing
this job, and I am 100% behind the Prime Minister in what he is
doing at the moment.
Q202 Mr Binley: But are you going
to be here after the next election if the Government gets returned?
Lord Jones of Birmingham: I do
not know. At the end of the day whether I am here in the morning
is down to the Prime Minister; he can hire you and sack you, and
I suppose the same would apply then.
Mr Binley: Digby, at our age, whether
either of us is here is a question, quite frankly! Can I move
on to the question of Turkey. You would want to get back to that,
Chairman.
Chairman: I would. Lord Jones likes talking
Turkey.
Q203 Mr Binley: I know he does and
he likes talking Turkish delight as well, I am sure that is the
case. There is a view amongst some in Turkey that it has shot
itself in the foot and you have already referred to that. Indeed,
some commentators have highlighted Turkey as a high risk amongst
the current world economic turbulence. Can Turkey weather the
storm of the global credit crunch? If so, does that show that
the country has arrived as a market choice and how do you consider
Turkey compares with India, China and the other BRIC countries
in that respect?
Lord Jones of Birmingham: From
the point of view firstly, if you take a snapshot today of where
it has come from and where it is going to, it has made huge progress
over the past few years, it has reduced inflation to single digit
levels, it has reduced its fiscal deficit, it has certainly cleaned
up its banking system, which was crisis-ridden every year, and
it has had a very successful IMF programme. It is showing all
the signs of putting in place the shock-absorbing capability to
deal with global economic crises that start from things outside
their control. So do I think they are in shape to weather the
storm? Yes. Will it be difficult? Of course it will. By the way,
it will be difficult for every economy, China as well. Have I
confidence that they will be in a position to weather the storm?
Yes, better than most. Will it be difficult? Yes. Looking forward,
it will only continue to be in a position to deal with further
problems successfully if it continues with its economic reform
and if it continues with opening up and being a place where it
is easier to do business than it is today and more welcoming to
inward investment than it is today. It is on its way and that
is good to see, and Britain is very supportive of it, but it is
not a perfect picture. In terms of comparative to other economies,
I think the jury is out on several of these economies, and by
the way, the jury is out on several of the economies of the developed
world as well as the emerging markets. America is entering a period
when she is going to have company at the top table. Her omnipotence
economically over the last six decades is basically over. That
does not mean she is falling off the top; it just means people
are going to join her. China obviously comes to mind and could
be there. I want the European Union to be there as a group which
can wield serious economic clout at the top table. The current
economic issues facing the economies of the world, developed and
developing, will force some fall-out, will force change, and will
change the pecking order as we go through into the second decade
of the 21st century.
Q204 Chairman: Can I just push you
on that because I saw a hugely pessimistic quote from one expert
saying: "I wouldn't want to keep any money in the Turkish
lira and the puzzle is how long it has stayed so high for so long.
There are huge imbalances in the economy. The current account
deficit is nearly 8% of GDP, and the chief prosecutor is trying
to shut down the Government" and Standard and Poor's rating
is BB-. It is not quite India, is it?
Lord Jones of Birmingham: No,
and apart from that, how was the play Mrs Lincoln? I could paint
a picture that is pretty bad for an awful lot of economies at
the moment. All of that is probably factually accurate but for
a moment I thought you were describing one or two economies of
the developed world. Of course current account deficits often
are products of swift and immediate inward investment and a private
sector catching up and capacity catching up, so that is a snapshot,
but I would tend to say you ought to ask me that question and
I should give you a considered answer in about a year or two's
time.
Q205 Miss Kirkbride: Minister, forgive
me, I will have to leave early from your session but I did want
to come along and see you a little bit. I am off to campaign for
Boris and I wonder as the Minister for Business Investment whether
you have any advice to offer Londoners?
Lord Jones of Birmingham: I will
tell you one thing I have got advice to offer on Thursday, and
I learned this going round the world, at the moment London is
the capital of the world. I do not say that with any degree of
arrogance, it is just factual, that wherever I go in the world
people look to London as the current capital, financially yes,
if you want raise your money, insure your risk, get your advice,
borrow your dosh, you come to London, so financially for sure,
but also creative industries and also with the Olympic Games coming
up and everything else, and I would just say to any Londoner,
have a bit of confidence, understand the place you are in the
world at the moment and think accordingly when you vote on Thursday.
Past that I am not saying a word to you today.
Q206 Miss Kirkbride: So no advice
on who should be the leader of the greatest capital city in the
world?
Lord Jones of Birmingham: I knew
that is what you were asking me and the answer is I keep that
to myself.
Q207 Miss Kirkbride: How disappointing
and so rare that you disappoint us! I am absolutely gutted but
let us come back to the EU. You will be aware that France and
Germany and other European countries are hostile to the idea of
Turkey joining the EU. How damaging do you think this is to their
prospects of coming in and what impact do you think it is having
on Turkey? Do you think there is anything that the UK can do to
help the cause along a bit more?
Lord Jones of Birmingham: I think
not only is that an extremely responsible question but I wish
that that issue was elevated more in our public domain, and more
often, because we have got to keep this issue on the front foot,
and I am really glad that you have raised it. Let us first distinguish
between France's attitude and Germany's. Chancellor Merkel basically
has expressed her opposition to Turkey coming in but is not hostile
and has said she will respect the decision that was taken previously,
so hers is a more "I wouldn't do it but we are where we are"
attitude. President Sarkozy is definitely hostile and has definitely
said no. Indeed, there is an argument that it was one of the promises
and pledges he made on his manifesto for getting elected so I
would say there is a distinction between France and Germany on
this. The second issue is that is directly against where Britain
is. We have a track record—and I was in Romania last week
and I said it there and I will repeat it now—where we are
the only major economy in the European Union that from beginning
to end never waivered in our support of the accession states coming
in, the first ten, then the next two, and we are in favour of
Turkey, and all the way through we are the one nation that has
always been supportive. I find as I get round those countries
that it has borne us in extremely good stead when it comes to
trade and investment and therefore I believe it is in Britain's
best interests from a trade and investment point of view, as I
have described already, but I do believe it is in the European
Union's best interests geopolitically, location-wise, reaching
out and trying to deal with a 21st century that has fundamentally
changed. The 21st century belongs to Asia and how the European
Union deals with that in all respects is going to define whether
our children and their children in the next 100 years are successful
in so many ways or not—security-wise, economically, culturally—and
we have to as the European Union become more competitive. We have
got to put our turnover over a wider market to increase our productivity,
increase our home market, have a more mobile workforce and have
all the transport infrastructure abilities that, say, the Americans
get from being big and putting their people across that turnover,
so in that respect I think that France's attitude is wrong. I
think if we keep Turkey out, our children and their children will
rue the day economically because their size will give us clout,
their getting wealthy will give us clout, they will be a skilled
workforce, but also from the point of view of security, because
it is important that one of the great enduring commercial geographic
supply lines of the world, which is the Bosphorus, is in the hands
of a friendly nation, a nation that looks West, sees Europe as
their natural home and is on the page of democratic capitalism,
and that is what Turkey offers Europe. They also are a secular
nation and in a century that belongs to Asia and in a world that
is embracing different religions more than ever before, the way
to kill prejudice, the way to stop evil men on both sides of the
argument from influencing and having their way is to embrace those
who are moderate in the different religions of the world. Turkey
represents that and therefore while my job is to promote the economic
connection between the European Union and Turkey, if France's
opposition means that we put up a wall against a friendly, member
of NATO, secular nation then we will be paying the price for a
long, long time.
Q208 Miss Kirkbride: Do you know
whether the issue of France's objections was raised privately
with President Sarkozy when he came to London recently?
Lord Jones of Birmingham: I do
know and it was not.
Q209 Miss Kirkbride: It was not?
That is rather a disappointing opportunity missed, is it not?
Lord Jones of Birmingham: People
can ask away all they like; it is whether they know they are going
to get an answer or not.
Q210 Miss Kirkbride: Do you think
Turkey will soldier on and hope that the political landscape changes
in Europe?
Lord Jones of Birmingham: Yes
I do actually. I think that the economic reforms that are needed
for Turkey to meet the provisions and criteria of the Acquis will
have a double good effect. One is they will get themselves into
better shape to join and, at the same time, it all goes in the
right direction for economic reform which leads to a more successful
economy and a self-fulfilling prophecy. So do I think they will
carry on? Yes, a little bit more in hope than expectation, as
we speak, but I am very hopeful that as the world changes so quickly
and as the European Union sees especially in the next decade of
the 21st century, this changing world with America still at the
top but having company with so many different nations in the world
growing in their clout, I do hope that France will see that a
stronger European Union is one with Turkey in it.
Q211 Miss Kirkbride: What about the
other vexed issue of Europe at the moment, that of Cyprus and
the resolution of issues there certainly with regard to Turkey,
where do you stand on that?
Lord Jones of Birmingham: I can
see why—and rightly too—it is important that we have
Cyprus resolved; that is obvious. I am quite hopeful now that
the Turks and Cypriots seem to be talking more than ever before
and I am hopeful of a speedy resolution. Should that get in the
way? Yes it should; I think it does need to be resolved, for many
reasons, not just in Brussels but for the people. Do I think it
will get in the way at the end of the day? No, I do not.
Q212 Miss Kirkbride: Do you think
the issue is more for Turkey or more for the Greeks in Cyprus?
Lord Jones of Birmingham: When
you say `the issue', is that your shorthand for who gives in?
Q213 Miss Kirkbride: The stumbling
blocks.
Lord Jones of Birmingham: I am
not going to start commenting on who should be giving way; I do
not do that side of life.
Q214 Mr Hoyle: You do not do politics!
Lord Jones of Birmingham: Quite.
It is a prescription I can recommend to many people actually.
Q215 Miss Kirkbride: A second disappointment.
Lord Jones of Birmingham: I do
see, with respect, why it is an issue not just for lawmakers but
also for people who live every day out there and have to deal
with it. I am just very confident that it will come to fruition
and have a successful resolution; I do not think it will be speedy
but in time.
Q216 Chairman: In time to facilitate
the accession talks?
Lord Jones of Birmingham: Spot
on but I do not mean next week.
Q217 Mr Binley: Could we push you
a little further on this, Digby, because we recently visited the
Commission and we were given the impression that, crudely, one
chapter had been closed and another two were hopeful of being
closed shortly. Anyway, a lot of chapters had not been closed,
that is the fact of the matter, and a number of them had not been
opened, and the impression I got was that there was not a great
deal of urgency, a great deal of concern. They said all the right
words but they did not find underneath that there was a great
wish to hurry this process along. I may be wrong and you may have
a different view. When do you think that we might be talking about
for the accession of Turkey in real terms?
Lord Jones of Birmingham: Firstly,
can I just finish off on one other point on Cyprus which is that
in June there are fully-fledged UN-based negotiations starting
so that is one more step on the road which I am quite pleased
about. Have I noticed in the last year/18 months a distinct slow
down or maybe just not as quickly going forward in trying to comply
with the Acquis and indeed just with negotiations? Yes I have
and I think that your comment that it is going off the boil is
fairly said. It is brought about by two or three reasons. I think
the lawsuit with the ruling party has been a diversion. If you
were trying to get into a club and you saw one of the major voters
in that club say they cannot stand you, what would you do?
Q218 Mr Binley: Join another club.
Lord Jones of Birmingham: Exactly,
which would be very worrying, or you would at least think, "I
will go and do a few more things while they make up their minds."
If I were democratically elected in Turkey, does it resonate in
the same way when France is sitting there saying what they have
said? Of course it does not, that is human nature. Have I seen
it going off the boil over the last couple of years? Yes. To answer
your third question then about where does that put it in terms
of the timing of accession, I personally am so much in favour
of Turkey coming in, I would like to see it get back on the front
foot, keep going, keep the faith in Turkey's terms and get to
a point where it is all done. Do I think that will happen in short
order? No. Britain's role in this is to keep it at the front.
That is why when the Chairman rang me up and said would you come
and do this, I jumped at the chance because we have got to get
this issue back on the front foot and back on the radar screen
in Brussels and indeed in the newspapers and in Ankara as well.
So we are talking years, are we not? I hope we are not talking
decades. I would sincerely hope inside the next decade but we
are talking years, and it is very important, for instance, if
you see President Sarkozy saying, "I promised this in my
election promises," well, I think there will be another Presidential
election in France before Turkey get in, and on that basis there
is a role for Britain and there is a role for others to start
trying to influence public opinion in France during this time.
It is a very long haul but it does not mean for a minute that
we should take our foot off the gas, it really does not.
Q219 Mr Hoyle: You have mentioned
France and a change of government there but what about Austria,
Germany, Holland, Greece, how do we persuade the rest? I think
we are in the minority. I know Greece is conciliatory at the moment
but the reality is when it came to a vote we have got to just
hope that they do hold the line. If we look at the Dutch, look
at Austria and look at Germany there is no great will to support
Turkey. What do you think we could do with those countries?
Lord Jones of Birmingham: I think
that point is very well made in terms of we must hope that even
a country whose policy it is to support holds the line if it ever
came to a vote, and Greece is a classic example, I think you are
right. I had a lesson on this when I was at the CBI when I visited
Vienna and I did a Q&A session with a load of small business
people, and I had a businessman stand up and say, "You are
so supportive of Turkey coming in," "Yes I am."
"We turned them back at the gates of this city in 1683 (or
whatever the date was) and they are not coming back now."
This guy said it in public to me in a business session. I tried
to loosen it up by saying, "I would like a written apology
from the Italian Government for what the Romans did to us,"
and I got absolutely nowhere.
Chairman: What did the Romans do?
Mr Hoyle: The rule of law—
Mr Weir: At least they did not get to
us!
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