House of Commons - Communities and Local Government Committee

Select Committee on Communities and Local Government Committee Written Evidence

Memorandum by Westminster City Council

SUMMARY

Westminster City Council is pleased to respond to the Communities and Local Government Committee's Inquiry into Community Cohesion and Migration. Our response focuses very specifically on our concerns in relation to impacts of migration and specifically the impact caused by the use of inadequate population estimates and projections and the implications for the distribution of funding to English local authorities with regard to community cohesion. This response therefore focuses on the first two elements of the Committee's inquiry focusing specifically on the implications for the distribution of scarce financial resources:

— the effect of recent inward migration on community cohesion; and

— the effectiveness of local and central government action.

International migration levels to Westminster and surrounding boroughs have been traditionally significant, and recently published ONS figures, covering the years 2001-06 show Westminster as having the highest volume of international migration per 1,000 population in England & Wales. Westminster is uniquely placed therefore, to comment on the problems caused by non-robust national migration statistics on the resources of Local Authorities and the consequent the benefits of international in-migration as well as the relative impact on community cohesion.

Westminster has been at the forefront of research in a growing consensus within the public sector, that flaws in national migration figures and the current definitions and formulae used to drive local authority, police and health service resources, are so significant that they threaten mainstream services and community cohesion.

It should be noted that although there are direct impacts of migration to local authority areas such as the pressures to the private rented sector, overcrowded accommodation, rough sleeping, increased cleansing and refuse collection, the indirect impacts are greater still. Indirect impacts are those caused by the lack of accurate government management data. In the case of population estimates this is extremely urgent and will cause severe detrimental impacts as they can lead to a systemic underfunding within local government and NHS funding distribution system.

THE EFFECT OF RECENT INWARD MIGRATION ON COMMUNITY COHESION

The Challenges Faced by Westminster as a First Point of Arrival

Westminster faces particular challenges as it is the first point of arrival for a large proportion of new arrivals from overseas. An estimated 2,000 migrants arrive at Victoria Coach station each week on coaches which originate on the continent. This figure excludes migrants arriving on train, tube, bus and coach services from the major London airports.

Since the 2001 census Westminster has seen rapid population growth linked to increasing levels of international migration. The following research results outline the issues raised by Westminster regarding current population estimates.

— Westminster is the number one destination for working migrants accepted through the Workers Registration scheme—over 16,000 have registered in Westminster between May 2004 to March 2007.

— Over 34,000 residents of Westminster received a New National Insurance Number between 2002-06—equivalent to 17% of our 2001 census population.

— Around half the rough sleepers in central London are now A8 migrants (Council survey December 2006).

— There has been a large rise in the numbers of migrants being supported through voluntary groups. Destitution amongst A2 migrants from Bulgaria and Romania who are not entitled to work permits is becoming an increasing issue in the City according to voluntary bodies in the Victoria and Pimlico areas who support refugees and migrants.

— Our 2006 Housing Needs survey has identified increasing overcrowding and household sizes linked in significant part to a growth in housing of multiple occupation. This is adding further to the acute pressures on affordable housing in the City where 44% of children already live in overcrowded accommodation.

— Innovative research using ethnographic techniques conducted by ESRO suggests that some migrant communities in Westminster may be twice as likely to register for bank accounts and mobile phones than with the state institutions such as with a GP or for National Insurance numbers that are used either directly or as proxies to estimate population figures.

— The ESRO research also found that the Office of National Statistics' definition of a "household" does not accurately reflect the complex living arrangements of migrants in the twenty first century. Westminster is increasingly finding multiple fluid households in properties across the housing sector.

— Research conducted by SQW and Local Government Futures shows that official estimates are not "fit for purpose" in areas as diverse as Westminster. This is backed up by the fact that the Office for National Statistics, responsible for compiling population estimates, refused to include Westminster in a test of the forthcoming 2011 census that was undertaken in May 2007. The ONS said: "our methods might be sufficiently good enough for more typical cities".

— Local Government Futures research revealed: "We have found no evidence to suggest that the combination of the City of Westminster's extreme characteristics have been considered, or addressed, by the current or proposed ONS methodologies for calculating mid year population estimates between 2002 and 2005".

— At a population summit held by Westminster City Council and attended by approximately thirty other councils identified the non-measurement of short term migration as a major problem: "Short term migration has a significant impact on the provision of public services in many local authority areas but migrants who are identified by the International Passenger Survey as planning to stay in the country for less than 12 months are excluded from the existing population estimates used to distribute grant funding". This approach will by definition exclude many international students planning to stay in the UK for a single academic year or migrants from Old Commonwealth nations such as Australia and South Africa as well as individuals from A8 migrant states whose intentions are not firm when they arrive in the UK.

— The summit also found a lack of clarity on the minimum standards of accuracy for population estimates and raised concerns about the relocation of the ONS to Wales linked to inadequate funding of migration estimates methodology.

THE EFFECTIVENESS OF LOCAL AND CENTRAL GOVERNMENT ACTION

Poor management data impacts on local communities

The cumulative effect of the population revisions changes announced on 24 April in London was a loss in population of over 60,000 residents between mid-2001 and mid-2005, most of which is attributable to the introduction of the LFS to supplement the IPS at the regional level. Westminster saw a reduction to its previous migrant allocation of around 15,500 which the City Council believes is counterintuitive. This resulting relative loss of population does not reflect our experience on the ground and evidence from a number of boroughs and other authorities to the contrary.

Westminster City Council believes that they will lose up to £12 million before damping in funding per year because the government is not properly counting population—particularly in relation to short term and hidden or illegal migrants.

There is mounting evidence from alternative estimates, the Statistics Commission, the Audit Commission, the Governor of the Bank of England, and the ONS that suggests that the population estimates significantly underestimate the scale of international in-migration nationally. This reflects the weakness of using small sample survey data to generate information on the migration patters of hundreds of thousands of individuals.

Of those sampled by the International Passenger Survey in 2005, for example just under 3,000 were in-migrants as opposed to permanent UK residents. If the samples from the three largest airports (Gatwick, Heathrow and Manchester) are excluded only 79 in migrants were in fact interviewed by the ONS through the IPS in 2004 for all the other UK airports combined (including Liverpool, Stansted and Luton which have the largest proportion of low cost flights from central and eastern Europe). Similarly in 2005 only 17 migrants coming through the Channel Tunnel were interviewed under the IPS. Westminster questions whether these sample sizes—which will drive the data for the distribution of NHS and local authority funding over the CSR 2007 period—are sufficiently robust to measure the true quantum of migration into the UK.

The current assumptions about migration which are derived primarily from survey based methods need to be supplemented by a more rigorous review of local datasets held by local and central government as well as seeking evidence from the business and voluntary sector. This requires a more proactive approach by government departments to data sharing.

There has been widespread criticism of the methodology used by the Office of National Statistics to measure migration dating back to an investigation conducted by the Statistics Commission in October 2003—The 2001 Census in Westminster: Interim Report.

"... it is a fact that whatever the true population in Westminster on Census night, the population now—two years later—could be significantly different. The churn in population in inner urban areas, and especially in Westminster, is high, with up to a quarter of the electorate on the electoral register changing annually. We know that methods currently used for measuring migration into and out of the UK, and between local authority areas, are unreliable. Particularly unreliable are the estimates of international emigration and immigration into and out of Central London. Without improved methods, up-dating population census figures is liable to error".

The Statistics Commission has written to government departments alongside the Office of National Statistics to further reinforce the consequences of using "limited" population data.

"There is now a broad recognition that available estimates of migrant numbers are inadequate for managing the economy, policies and services".

to four government departments

"Until our research has concluded you may wish to consider how the estimates and projections are used and whether there is any scope for recognising the particular uncertainty for those parts of the country that are affected by relatively high levels of migration".

of the Office for National Statistics to Lindsay Bell Director,

Local Government Finance CLG December 2005

Community Cohesion Funding

The recent announcement of the allocation of £34 million of community cohesion funding for local authorities over the next three years by the DCLG applied used questionable criteria to determine funding allocations and fail to consult with local authorities on how this criteria was determined.

The distribution methodology was based on the existing BVPI on community cohesion (% of residents surveyed believing that believe people get along well with each other)—the national average of this BVPI is 81% and only those authorities with a score of 75% or less received a share of the cohesion funding. However because the data is only based on local authority wide information it will not address particular community cohesion challenges at a more local level eg in particular wards. The maximum allocation per authority in year 1 is £120,000 although some eligible Councils will receive only £26,000—insufficient to fund even one full time equivalent post.

At first glance Westminster scores highly on the measure at 84%, likely due to inner London's successful cohesion as a result of hyper-diversity. However closer inspection reveals that in some of our deprived areas, where a perceived competition for resources is more likely, the score is low as 59%.

THE ROLE OF ENGLISH LANGUAGE AS A TOOL IN PROMOTING THE INTEGRATION OF MIGRANTS

Westminster faces particular challenges as the borough with the highest net migration in the country. As a first point of stay for new arrivals, many needing English language training, it is essential that ESOL provision is adequately funded. As such we welcome Government's decision to re-think means testing for ESOL and consult with local authorities on ESOL provision.

TAKING FORWARD THE COMMISSION ON INTEGRATION AND COHESIONS RECOMMENDATIONS RELATING TO MIGRATION

The Commission on Integration & Cohesion highlighted the clear links between discrimination and cohesion with perceived discrimination and fear of discrimination preventing people from engaging with those from different groups. Success in tackling and eliminating discrimination, particularly in a borough as a diverse as Westminster, is an essential part of our approach.

It should be noted that it's anticipated that the proposed Single Equality Act is likely to introduce a positive public sector duty to promote equality across all six strands of equality (Race/Gender/Disability/Age/Religion & Belief and sexual orientation). It is essential that adequate funding is provided to local authorities in order to deliver on this duty.

CONCLUSION

Ted Cantle, Migration Works Seminar Nov 2006 Slough "Community tensions are sometimes caused by the perception of competition between groups over resources and councils have to be able to demonstrate that this is not the case".

"The government needs to look with some urgency at funding areas appropriately where statistics are not keeping pace with what is happening on the ground".

Westminster would like to conclude by noting that the recent three year local government finance settlement published by the DCLG in December 2007 is likely to have been based on inadequate migration data. Unless this is addressed promptly—and before the next three year settlement is announced in 2010—this could create the situation where the perception of communities competing over scarce resources is made worse through the government's lack of engagement on this issue and a wider failure to generate accurate estimates on migration at local authority level.

43 Westminster Population Research. SQW September 2007. Back

44 Westminster City Council Population summit 2nd July 2007. Back



© Parliamentary copyright 2008	Prepared 16 July 2008