Examination of Witnesses (Questions 60
- 63)
TUESDAY 26 JUNE 2007
DR ALI
ANSARI, DR
TOBY DODGE,
DR ERIC
HERRING, DR
GLEN RANGWALA
AND PROFESSOR
SAMI ZUBAIDA
Q60 Linda Gilroy: Not recently trained
to operate under a democracy, of sorts?
Professor Zubaida: Democracy is
laughable.
Dr Rangwala: If one wants to talk
opinion polls, and a number of my colleagues have cited opinion
polls, I think the most revealing answer in a recent opinion poll
from March this year to "Who do you think runs Iraq?"
was that over half the population said they believed the US Governments
still run Iraq. I think, there, at least, the question of who
one is obeying when one takes one's orders becomes the relevant
indicator, not the question of "Can I do this if I want to
do this?" which is the training question.
Q61 Linda Gilroy: Was that throughout
the whole of Iraq, and we are discussing southern Iraq at the
moment and the role of the British in training there. As I have
understood it, when we were there last year, there was a programme
that would take a period of time; there was always the thought
that we would be withdrawing. Clearly, we are not going to say
precisely when we are going to withdraw because that would be
a hostage to fortune, but we are talking as if that had never
been, as if there had never been any differences in the southern
area at all, and is not, in fact, the essential difficulty linked
to what the US position is? The point drawn out in relation to
David Hamilton's question, that in fact you are talking about
the lines of exit for the US troops, important lines of exit,
being through the south?
Dr Rangwala: I think I would disagree
slightly with Dr Dodge on that point; the US can protect the roads
and the exit route, as it were, without having to take control
of Basra city, in keeping the transit route through from Kuwait.
My sense is, at least, that the sense that the Iraqis do not own
their country, which I think is prevalent, both amongst the Sunnis
as well as amongst the Shi'a population of Iraq, not so much amongst
the Kurds but amongst the Arab population of Iraq, is a very damaging
one. It is why there is, I think, such rampant corruption, why
there is tapping of oil pipelines by political parties which otherwise
are in charge of the country. They have those resources at their
disposal in any case, but they are still profiteering from the
use of these resources on the side because they feel that this
is, as it were, "a process that we need to exploit rather
than a process that we need to manage," so I think that is
a very damaging perception.
Q62 Mr Jenkin: Can I just ask a rather
provocative question; there was a poll done in March which suggested
that still the majority of Iraqis would not bring back Saddam
Hussein. Is it the opinion of Iraqis that it was still the right
thing, to get rid of Saddam Hussein, in your view?
Dr Herring: Polling on that has
gradually declined to a position where overall nationally you
have a relatively even split either way, all things considered.
Was it the right thing? You can find one recent poll, in March,
when there was actually a very narrow favour saying, all things
considered, the invasion was wrong. My recollection was that was
the first time ever, but there has been a decline. Obviously,
when you break that down in sectarian terms you tend to get a
much happier view in the north, which of course mostly was the
north-east, which mostly was not occupied, and of course, pretty
relentlessly, critical views in Sunni Arab areas. Of course, no-one
has asked two million Iraqis, who are now scattered into surrounding
countries, how positive they are about the invasion, we suspect
they might be pretty not positive, or dead people, if they could
vote on this, what they would say. I think it is looking pretty
bad, even on that measure now it is not looking good at all, and
in terms of what Iraqis are being asked about what they would
prefer, a strong man democracy, and so on, the first preference
is democracy, as in choosing to change your leader, the second
preference is then some form of Islamic state, and the third preference
is a strong man for life, and that does trail still, the distant
third.
Q63 Chairman: Two million dead; where
do you get that figure from?
Dr Herring: No; sorry, two million
refugees, so not dead.
Professor Zubaida: From another
long-term perspective, and I have seen many years of Iraqi history,
every regime change, in its wake, makes people nostalgic for the
previous one. I think, given the dire situation in Iraq at the
moment, all the previous regimes appear preferable to the present
situation.
Mr Hamilton: That is also true of governments.
Chairman: Thank you, gentlemen. Thank
you very much indeed for giving up your morning to us in so informative
and helpful a way. We are deeply grateful. It was most interesting
and helpful. I am now going to declare a short break while we
wait for our next witness, but thank you very much indeed.
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