Memorandum 3
Submission from the British Antarctic
Survey
SCIENCE BUDGET
ALLOCATION
Executive Summary
1. As a stakeholder in UK solar-terrestrial
physics, the British Antarctic Survey is concerned about the impact
of the current Science and Technology Facilities Council Delivery
Plan[3]
on national capability in solar-terrestrial physics, which is
of importance to a variety of stakeholders in science, commerce
and government.
2. We recommend:
2.1 Reviewing the representation of STP within
STFC and whether it should be funded wholly within another research
council.
2.2 Restoring funding for fundamental and
applied research, education and training in solar-terrestrial
physics.
2.3 Reversing the proposed closure of all
ground-based solar-terrestrial physics facilities.
INTRODUCTION
3. The British Antarctic Survey (BAS) is
a research institute of the Natural Environment Research Council
but has traditionally shared a common interest with the Science
and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) and its predecessor PPARC
in conducting research in Solar-Terrestrial Physics (STP).
4. This submission expresses our concern
about the impact of the current STFC Delivery Plan1 on national
capability in STP, which is of importance to a variety of stakeholders
in science, commerce and government.
WHAT IS
SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL
PHYSICS?
5. STP is essentially the study of the effects
of solar variability on the Earth's environment. The most obvious
manifestation of this interaction is the aurora (also known as
the northern or southern lights) but its effects occur from the
ground throughout the Earth's atmosphere to its outer reaches
in near-Earth space. Details of what STP is and the UK's involvement
can be found on the public outreach site www.sunearthplan.net.
6. STP research provides essential knowledge
on the environment occupied by satellites which have become part
of our everyday lives (from communication to GPS to weather forecasting)
and on the influence of solar variability on climate change.
7. STP is traditionally regarded as a sub-discipline
of astronomy. However it is very distinct because it concentrates
on the space environment around Earth whereas astronomy is interested
in much more distant and exotic space environments mostly far
outside our solar system. In this respect STP is more akin to
an environmental science and has direct relevance to the activities
of society and the Government's knowledge exchange agenda as explained
below.
8. Historically, STP has received minority
funding within the overall astronomy budget of STFC and currently
experiences no representation within STFC decision-making bodies.
9. During the consultation process about
the formation of STFC, NERC offered to accept the transfer of
solar physics and STP from STFC with appropriate resources.
Recommendation 1: Review the representation
of STP within STFC and whether it should be funded wholly within
another research council, recognising the distinction between
STP and Astronomy and the lack of representation of STP in the
STFC decision-making process.
WHY IS
SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL
PHYSICS IMPORTANT?
10. STP is of importance to a variety of
stakeholders in science, commerce and government. UK STP research
is internationally recognised as world-leading. The 2005 International
Review of International Perceptions of UK Research in Physics
and Astronomy[4]
stated that "UK researchers have an exceptionally strong
standing in solar physics as well as space-based and ground-based
space physics".
Key areas of importance for STP research are:
11. Sun-climate links. Researchers are becoming
increasingly aware of links between solar variability and the
Earth's climate. It is critical that we establish the relative
importance of solar-induced effects on climate change so we can
predict more accurately the man-made influences on climate. The
InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change[5]
reported that the current level of understanding is very low and
Sir Keith O'Nions in recent evidence to the Public Accounts committee[6]
about the Halley research station in Antarctica asserted that
the "physics of the upper atmosphere there will be a very
key part of climate change". Scientists in the UK are at
the forefront of improving our knowledge of sun-climate links
in a number of areas, many of which are dependant upon our knowledge
of STP and building on it.
12. Space weather. Solar variability has
a very strong influence on the near-earth space environment, including
large transient increases in the amount of radiation there. Such
space weather events are frequent but intermittent and of varying
severity, the prediction of which is an ultimate goal of STP research.
They can lead to temporary loss of service from satellites, or
even the complete loss of satellites worth about $300 million
each. More than half of all space insurance is done through London
and is worth $500 million per year. BAS has conducted research
into the risk to satellites from space weather, commissioned by
City of London satellite insurers. The radiation can also enter
the upper reaches of the atmosphere and poses a risk to air crew,
passengers and sensitive electronics. The monitoring of this radiation
risk is now required by law; understanding its variability helps
airlines manage this risk. These are two areas where the UK is
leading but it is also involved in other applications concerning
the effect of space weather on radio communications, navigation
systems, electricity supply networks, and pipelines. A recent
study[7]
commissioned by the European Space Agency (ESA) identified that
the potential european market for space weather services exceeded
a billion euros over 15 years. BAS has led recent space weather
contracts for ESA.
13. UK security. The importance of STP to
security is harder to assess by its very nature. We are aware
of at least one university department that provides STP consultancy
services to the Ministry of Defence, and of UK companies who use
STP knowledge in defence contracts. In the U.S.A., where it is
easier to know of the links between the military and research
scientists, the military services support considerable STP research,
including the impact of space weather on radio communications
and satellites and also similar impacts resulting from nuclear
detonation in space. Whilst some of this information may be shared
through NATO, UK scientists have world-leading or unique expertise
in some STP areas and also it would seem important that the UK
maintain a national capability to provide independent advice to
government.
14. Education and training. Space science,
including STP, is known to excite and attract young people into
physics and engineering, which is essential for sustaining a knowledge-based
economy and reversing the decline of science teachers. Higher
education and training is also essential for sustaining national
capability and international leadership in STP.
Recommendation 2: Restore funding for fundamental
and applied research, education and training in STP that is adequate
to maintain national capability.
IMPACT OF
STFC DELIVERY PLAN
ON SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL
PHYSICS
15. The STFC Delivery Plan[8]
states that
"We will cease all support for ground-based
solar-terrestrial physics facilities.
We will target our investment in astronomy grants
taking account of reduced facility availability."
In our opinion, this will lead to the complete
loss of national capability in STP by removing vital experimental
infrastructure and the associated research and people.
16. Effective STP research combines measurements
from the ground and from space—together these provide much
more than the sum of the parts. Indeed, the recent ESA space weather
study[9]
highlighted that ground-based measurements are extremely cost-effective
as methods for monitoring space weather and therefore are a key
element in stimulating the growth of this market. The 2005 International
Review of International Perceptions of UK Research in Physics
and Astronomy[10]
also stated that "The UK has a world-leading role in ground-based
space research using ionospheric radars, auroral observations,
and magnetometer networks" and that "The ground-based
space research is highly cost-effective relative to space-based
science, and increased support would likely yield great dividends
as well as valuable hands-on experience for PhD students and PDRAs."
17. The STFC delivery plan[11]
makes no mention of space-based STP or even the Sun. Given the
current situation that STFC will target astronomy grants to existing
facilities and that existing STP missions are coming to the end
of their operational lives with no commitment yet by STFC to future
missions, the delivery plan effectively removes STP from the UK's
research portfolio.
Recommendation 3: Reverse the proposed closure
of all ground-based STP facilities, recognising the need for combined
space and ground-based STP research to maintain national capability.
RECOMMENDATIONS
18. Recommendation 1: Investigate whether
STP should be funded wholly within another research council—EPSRC
or NERC, recognising the distinction between STP and Astronomy
and the lack of representation of STP in the STFC decision-making
process.
19. Recommendation 2: Restore funding
for fundamental and applied research, education and training in
STP that is adequate to maintain national capability.
20. Recommendation 3: Reverse the proposed
closure of all ground-based STP facilities, recognising the need
for combined space and ground-based STP research to maintain national
capability.
February 2008
3 Science and Technology Facilities Council Delivery
Plan 2008-9-2011-12
http://www.scitech.ac.uk/resources/pdf/delplan_07.pdf Back
4
Second International Review of International Perceptions of UK
Research in Physics and Astronomy 2005, p.18,
http://www.ras.org.uk/images/stories/ras_pdfs/2005review/2005%20Review.pdf Back
5
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/245.htm£fig66 Back
6
Big Science: Public investment in large scientific facilities,
question 65,
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200607/cmselect/cmpubacc/521/521.pdf Back
7
Space Weather Applications Pilot Project: Cost Benefit Analysis-Final
Report, p. 67, ESA publication SEA/06/TN/5482. Back
8
Science and Technology Facilities Council Delivery Plan 2008-9-2011-12
http://www.scitech.ac.uk/resources/pdf/delplan_07.pdf Back
9
Space Weather Applications Pilot Project: Cost Benefit Analysis-Final
Report, p. 67, ESA publication SEA/06/TN/5482. Back
10
Second International Review of International Perceptions of UK
Research in Physics and Astronomy 2005, p.18,
http://www.ras.org.uk/images/stories/ras_pdfs/2005review/2005%20Review.pdf Back
11
Science and Technology Facilities Council Delivery Plan 2008-9-2011-12
http://www.scitech.ac.uk/resources/pdf/delplan_07.pdf Back
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