Memorandum 81
Supplementary submission from the UK Energy
Research Centre
RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY
CONTRIBUTION TO
MEETING EU RENEWABLE
ENERGY TARGETS
The UK contribution to the EU renewable Energy
Targets has been agreed at 15% of total energy supply by 2020.
There is general acceptance that due to the greater technical
difficulties of meeting heat and transport needs from renewable
sources, the proportion of electricity from renewable sources
is likely to be significantly higher than 15% if the overall target
is to be achieved.
The electricity contribution can be estimated
only by making assumptions about the inherent growth in demand
for energy services, the impact of measures to reduce this demand
through technology developments, energy efficiency measures deployment,
and behavioural modification, and the success in deployment of
renewable energy sources in the transport and heat sectors.
EU targets include a 20% overall reduction in
demand. We have assumed that this can be met in the heat sector,
but based on technical opportunity and historical trends energy
demand in 2020 will be the same as in 2006.
We have assumed that 10% of transport fuel will
be sourced from renewables and can then calculate the percentage
of electrical energy required from renewable sources for any given
level of renewable contribution to heat. In the table below the
results are given for two cases: 5% and 10% of heat energy from
renewables.
|
| Target % of energy from renewables |
% needed from Electricity assuming 5% renewable heat
| % needed from Electricity assuming 10% renewable heat
|
|
| 10% | 25.8%
| 14.0% |
| 11% | 31.5%
| 19.8% |
| 12% | 37.3%
| 25.5% |
| 13% | 43.0%
| 31.3% |
| 14% | 48.8%
| 37.0% |
| 15% | 54.5%
| 42.8% |
|
| April 2008 | |
|
| 
