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The agreement of the Bali roadmap was hailed as a defining moment in the global response to climate change. The roadmap charted a course for negotiations on a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol when it expires in 2012. However, although the roadmap recognised that developed countries will have to make deep cuts in emissions and that more needs to be done to help developing countries adapt to and mitigate climate change, there remain real and substantial uncertainties about the pace and eventual outcome of the negotiations.
A post-2012 agreement will only be a success if it is guided by the science, which warns us that developed countries must reduce emissions by 25-40% by 2020 and 80-95% by 2050. Given that these emission reductions only translate to a 50-50 chance of avoiding dangerous climate change the international community should aspire to even greater reductions. Although most developing countries are not required to reduce emissions, they will need to commit to certain actions that will limit the growth of and eventually stabilise their emissions. We believe that the targets for developed countries and commitment to actions by developing countries are the minimum that the UK and EU should accept in the negotiations.
Diplomacy will be key in helping to reach agreement on the effort required. As domestic politics will have an impact on the positions taken in the negotiations, diplomatic efforts should be directed at both governments and influential stakeholder groups in other countries. We welcome the greatly increased resources the Government has provided for climate change diplomacy and the priority now given to climate change by FCO. At the same time it is important that international negotiations do not get mired in problems about process.
The Government must take a subtle approach to the negotiations, particularly with respect to developing countries. It will have to work closely with them to explore the actions that they might be willing to commit to. The post-2012 agreement can be more flexible and creative than its predecessor in responding to the different needs of different countries. For example it might include energy efficiency or sectoral targets. Emission reduction targets for developing countries would not be equitable in all cases given historic emissions. All developing countries will need to commit to a range of actions, but those in which per capita GDP is growing quickly will need to commit to more robust measures. It is clear that substantial developed country financing will be required in order to shift developing countries onto a low-carbon path and also to encourage them to agree to mitigation actions. The Government will have to work hard to persuade developed countries to agree to the creation of effective funding mechanisms able to deliver the billions of pounds that will be required per year. Useful lessons can be learned from the experience of the CDM so far.
The UK Government has a credible voice in international negotiations. It is important that it does not undermine this position by supporting domestic policies that run counter to climate change objectives. An over-reliance on the use of international credits to meet domestic targets or watering down green initiatives in the face of a slowing economy could have this effect.
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