Select Committee on Environmental Audit Minutes of Evidence


Examination of Witnesses (Questions 1-19)

MR CHARLIE KRONICK, MR CÉDRIC PHILIBERT AND DR SALEEMUL HUQ

19 FEBRUARY 2008

  Q1 Chairman: Good morning and welcome. I have suggested that when our third witness arrives he just joins as soon as he can. We are quite strictly time limited ourselves. Would you just like to introduce yourselves to the Committee and just explain who you are and where you are from?

  Mr Kronick: My name is Charlie Kronick. I am the Senior Climate Advisor for Greenpeace UK.

  Dr Huq: My name is Saleemul Huq. I head the climate change programme at the International Institute for Environment and Development.

  Q2  Chairman: Thank you. The latest IPCC report gives the strongest indication so far about what is needed if we are going to avoid dangerous climate change. Do you think that the international negotiations have enough urgency about them to reflect the conclusions that the scientists are now producing?

  Mr Kronick: I was not at the last round, but I have been to a number. I think there is a sense of urgency around the process just by the sheer weight of numbers of interest that have come to bear on it. As for within the actual negotiating process itself, no, I do not. You only have to look at the exclusion of even guiding targets from the main tests about declaration for 2020 to see that not only could they not agree on targets to negotiate towards, they could not even agree to get them in for a very, very short period of time. I would say that urgency is lacking from the core of the process. In terms of the general circus itself, I think it is building a lot of speed. It might be more heat than light.

  Dr Huq: I was in Bali and I would agree with Charlie's analysis. However, I would put a slightly better spin on it in that Bali was never going to be a decision-making process. It was to set us a timeline and we did, we have Copenhagen as a timeline. Countries are not going to reveal all their cards until the end of that timeline. To expect them to put all their proposals on the table this early in the process I think was unrealistic. They are keeping their cards close to their chest. They are going to be in very intense negotiations. We now have a two-year timeline up to Copenhagen in December 2009, which was a major outcome of Bali. I agree with Charlie, not getting certain words into the agreement from the IPCC was not a good sign but, nevertheless, it was not fatal to the process.

  Mr Kronick: I would agree with that.

  Q3  Chairman: And you are happy that the IPCC dates and targets that are in the latest assessment are the right starting point for the negotiations?

  Dr Huq: Absolutely. The advantage of them is that they are consensus driven; no country can disagree with them. Some of us might disagree with them being not enough, but at least at the level they are at countries cannot disagree with them.

  Mr Kronick: One of the important things to remember about the IPCC is the rear view mirror. It looks at the peer reviewed literature from the period before which it was published, which means inevitably it is not the most current. Climate science moves so fast that the most current data is not included and that sense of urgency even came out from the IPCC meetings, that certain things could just not make it into the papers.

  Q4  Chairman: Without wanting to be too gloomy about it, it seems to me that the science is getting stronger and stronger and the threat is more and more urgent and more serious, but even the most forward looking countries are struggling to get anywhere near the current targets, which has almost universally meant not one will be prepared to touch it. That is quite a gloomy background if we say that no one, even the best countries, is going to reach what we thought was needed five years ago. We now know much more is included. You would have to be a pretty optimistic person to think that is the starting point from which a satisfactory conclusion is going to be reached, would you not?

  Mr Kronick: You would not do this work if you were not quite an optimistic sort of person! That is a reasonable analysis. I guess what I would add to that or try to unpack a little bit is the way the process has been led since 1997 in the Kyoto Protocol that has been around what seemed at the time almost peripheral mechanisms, which were the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol, the CDM and the provisions for emissions trading. They were included for a very particular purpose and that was to get the United States and other big market economies to participate. Unfortunately, for the people who took that gamble—and that includes the NGOs who supported it post-1997—it has not worked in that way and yet the kind of incredible momentum of the market and the idea of carbon markets being able to deliver all the results that we need mean that it is not surprising that we are not anywhere close to achieving a sense of urgency or the level of engagement that is needed. Greenpeace is very happy that carbon markets are a part of this process, but the idea that a market mechanism and a price on carbon was ever going to be enough to completely shift away infrastructure investment across the developing and developed world was very optimistic and I think totally unrealistic.

  Dr Huq: I think during Kyoto and just post-Kyoto there was still a prevailing view that we needed to make an incremental change and tinker with the system and we would be able to deliver. That view is now shattered. It just is not going to work that way. We will need quite a severe paradigm shift in terms of legislation, policies, technologies and business involvement. More and more of the public in general, even the business community, are becoming aware that that is what is going to be needed. What we therefore need to do is to get the political will amongst the leadership to come to an agreement that does deliver that. It will not happen on its own; it will require a top-down political agreement at the global level with all countries on board.

  Q5  Mark Lazarowicz: The UN process is obviously crucial, but it certainly has been suggested that it is equally important to have progress in negotiations and other fora. Do you agree it is important to take that forward? If you do, what do you think is the objective that we should be taking forward in the Japanese presidency of the G8?

  Mr Kronick: I think the G8 has obviously taken climate change as a bit of core business for them. In terms of the Japanese presidency, until the US presidency changes and there is someone different in the White House in 2009 there is going to be very little likelihood of a big resolution on these issues by the end of the Japanese presidency. I guess it depends on which other processes you mean. I think the G8 is powerful because of the power of the economies. Some of the parallel processes that have been put forward by the US administration, for example, or Australia pre their election, like the Asia-Pacific partnerships, are a genuine distraction from the Kyoto and post-Kyoto process. We would encourage any national governments that are positively engaging with the Kyoto process not to be distracted by the things that the Bush administration has put forward. Having said that, there are other processes that are pretty important, eg the Convention on Biological Diversity, which has big impacts on global deforestation, which in turn has a very important role to play in avoiding dangerous climate change, and could be very, very powerful, but it is being marginalized at the moment. There are some processes that are getting no attention that could be much more important and there are some that are getting lots of attention that are, frankly, nothing but a distraction.

  Dr Huq: The climate change issue or problem is such an over-arching and all-encompassing one that it is not going to be solved by one particular process alone. It does require engagement by different actors, including the summit meetings of the G8 leaders and the G8 plus five leaders as well as processes led by the Secretary General at the UN General Assembly, for example, or even meetings like Davos where the business community come together. They all have a role to play in bringing together, but fundamentally they must support the UNFCC process because without a global deal—and that is the only binding treaty we have—voluntary agreements amongst the big emitters are not going to deliver. The UNFCC is the only place where 100 of the poorest most vulnerable countries, the countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa, the least developed countries, the small island states, who are not big emitters but who will suffer the consequences of climate change and the lack of action by the big emitters, can hold the big emitters to account. They are not invited to the G8 plus five.

  Q6  Mark Lazarowicz: Equally, if the G8 plus five were pressing hard in this area then it would obviously, one would assume, lead to a greater possibility of progress, but as you suggest, if we cannot expect much from the Japanese presidency that is not very encouraging, is it?

  Dr Huq: We should try and get as much as we can. As Charlie says, I think the general consensus of most people following this is that the Bush White House is not going to change its tune. The post-Bush White House will almost certainly change its tune. The major contenders right now are all on board with climate change and the US is coming back on board. Negotiating with them perhaps around the Bush White House might be the way forward with the US. The others can take action or at least agree on certain things that they need to do. They should all reinforce an agreement under the UNFCC process.

  Q7  Mark Lazarowicz: Do you see any possibility of a Japanese government during the G8 process adopting the 25-40% reduction target?

  Dr Huq: Not by consensus. The US will not agree to that. The Japanese may do it voluntarily. The Japanese Prime Minister has proposed something similar along those lines himself.

  Q8  Dr Turner: It is not only the science that has moved on at a great pace since the start of the Kyoto process, but some of the developing countries have been growing economically very fast and becoming very major CO2 emitters in their own right. How do you feel about the attitude of developing countries in accepting that climate change is an issue that they have to contribute towards the mitigation of?

  Dr Huq: I sense a change in attitude. It used to be the case that the G77 in general and particularly countries like India, China and Brazil said, "It's an Annex 1 country problem. You solve it. Don't ask us to do anything about it." I sense that they have changed their attitude for two reasons. Firstly, there is a lot more analysis being done within countries like India, China and Brazil about the potential impacts of climate change on them and it is not good news for them. Their own scientists are telling them that this is a severe problem for their own populations, particularly the more vulnerable populations within those countries and therefore they need to become part of the solution and not just leave it to others. That has not necessarily moved them to changing their negotiating positions, although it has softened it a bit. The Chinese, for example, in Bali are no longer saying they will not do anything; they are saying, "We are willing to do our bit, but we need technology and we need funding and so on." The debate goes into technology transfer and funding for technology transfer and not unwillingness on their part to take action but willingness provided they are given support. In India it is a bit more confused. The Indian government tends to be a bit more intransigent. Even so, within India there is a growing debate amongst civil society, amongst the scientific community and amongst the private sector in India that has been very much involved in the CDM, for example. It is a very small but strong and growing cohort of business people in India that like the carbon market and CDM want more of it and want India to be part of that post-2012 regime where there are more CDM opportunities available. There is a growing sense within these countries that they need to become part of the solution and the governments ought to take on some form of commitments. What those form of commitments will be remains to be seen. There are a lot of hard negotiations needed to do that.

  Q9  Colin Challen: Could I just take on this issue of India's alleged reluctance because at the UK-India summit last month the two prime ministers agreed that a future framework might well be the convergence model on a per capita basis. Does that not show that India is engaged but wants to be so on a basis which is fair and equitable?

  Dr Huq: Absolutely. The Indians have always pushed for the notion of equity to be fundamental, which it had not been in Kyoto. Kyoto was grandfathering rights to pollution, whereas the Indians have always championed the cause or at least incorporating an element of equity in terms of per capita emissions to be recognised. India's per capita emissions are very, very low. China, on the other hand, will reach the global average fairly soon, but India has a long way to go.

  Mr Kronick: You have to drill down a little bit into that. India is around 1.2 billion and growing. 750 million of those people live on less than a dollar a day and then there are about 300 million people, roughly the size of the EU 15, who live roughly at a European level of consumption and sometimes higher level of consumption. Greenpeace India, did a very interesting report, which I would happily submit to the Committee, which is called "Hiding behind the poor", which says that at least the `global consumer' class that is resident in India—and that includes the government—does need to get a grip on infrastructure investments, which is what is really driving emissions in India, not poverty eradication, sadly. It is more complicated than saying India has low per capita emissions just as in China the averages are growing up. It is where there can be a genuine attempt to develop a solution to that problem which has got to be about infrastructure and not about accounting that will begin to address the problem. Greenpeace feels very strongly that that is where the real opportunity for commitments from those big emerging economies in the developing world will come from, which is focusing on particular sectors where not only technology and money can be shared but you can set up a genuine political objective, which is not just about the science, it is an awful lot about the politics.

  Chairman: Can I just welcome Mr Philibert to the Committee. It is a very informal session with people just throwing questions out. If there is one that you want to answer, do not wait to be called, just jump in.

  Q10  Dr Turner: Phil Woolas MP, our own Climate Change Minister, recently criticised India for not seeming to wish to address climate change because he thought that India saw the question as a trade-off and a choice between either economic growth or mitigating climate change. Do you think that is a fair analysis of Indian attitudes and, if so, how do you think we can address that one?

  Dr Huq: I think it is a fair description of the attitude of some people and perhaps also fair of the attitude of the Indian government in the past. In India now there is a growing sense of debate and different attitudes arising amongst civil society and the scientific community, the business community and even within different parts of the government where they are looking at a much more nuanced view of this issue. The view that it does not necessarily require compromising development and improving quality of life, particularly of the poor, by taking a cleaner pathway to the future energy and infrastructure requirements of the country is something that is becoming a part of that argument as well. I do not think it is a monolithic view any more, if it was at any time. The Indian government and people will take a much more sophisticated view of this in future, particularly in the negotiations.

  Q11  Dr Turner: Do you think that developing countries now recognise that in the likes of their different circumstances they need to adopt different responsibilities and to take account of those circumstances in their approach to climate change mitigation?

  Dr Huq: Absolutely. That is already happening. If you look at some of the debates that occurred in Bali, they were not all between north and south, there was also quite a lot of internal debate within the G77 with country groups, eg the small island states and the Least Developed Countries Group, challenging India, China and Brazil and saying, "You cannot continue to say you will not do anything. You are big emitters. You have to become part of the solution. You have to offer something on the table." To some extent I think the change in the nuance and tone of these large countries came from pressure from other countries in the south for them to become more amenable to taking action or at least being more open to the possibilities.

  Q12  Dr Turner: Presumably this is being driven to a large extent by the realization amongst developing countries that they are going to be first in line for suffering adverse consequences.

  Mr Kronick: I think they have known that for quite a while! The realization may be growing. If you look at the initiatives of the small island states, from very early on in this process they have been the ones who have taken the most progressive positions.

  Q13  Dr Turner: Do you think we need to evolve different country groupings to take account of these circumstances? What sort of mitigation actions do you think would be appropriate to these new groupings?

  Dr Huq: The G77, which is the negotiating group of the developing countries, is a very broad church, it has over 140 countries and with a huge differentiation amongst them and a lot of subgroups within them as well. They are already differentiated internally. Within those subgroups there are several that are of particular significance: the Alliance of Small Island States, about 40 island countries, the least developed countries, about 50 of the poorest countries and the Africa group as a whole, another 50 countries. There are overlaps between them, but these are significant subgroups within the G77. For these countries the problem of climate change is how it is going to impact them and how they are going to deal with the impacts, it is not about their emissions. Their emissions do not amount to much at all. Therefore, the question for them is, "What are the big emitters, including the big developing countries, going to do about this?" They are raising these issues. To the extent that countries like the UK and the EU can recognise these subgroups and deal with them, which they have not done very well in the past—Prime Minister Blair invited the five big emitters to the meeting in Gleneagles. He could have invited the Chairman of the LDC Group but he did not do that. They say, "When you want to talk to developing countries all you want to talk about is reducing their emissions and you invite the big emitters. What about us 100 countries who are going to suffer? Are we not part of the problem? Are we not eligible to be invited to the table to talk about this issue? It is going to affect us more than it is going to affect you or them."

  Mr Kronick: These groups are not mandates, they are self-selecting and it is a fluid process. For example, there is no question that some of the newly industrialised, high income countries, ie South Korea, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, should be some of the people with obligations to mitigate and reduce emissions, but they are still in there with Malawi and Saudi Arabia and still arguing for compensation for loss of petrol sales down the road. We need to be a bit more robust amongst ourselves in differentiating between the interests of these groups.

  Dr Turner: Especially given that some of these developing countries have per capita incomes as high as any of the G8.

  Q14  Mr Hurd: Can I just bring you back to this dream of a global deal and probe you a little harder on this because this is the roadmap we are on and we have been on for a very long time. You are painting a vision of some optimism, that now a timeline is established and people are keeping their cards close to their chest there is going to be a mother of all negotiations and everything is going to click into place in Copenhagen. Can I put it to you that the process is tremendously flawed because it is allowed to proceed at the pace of the least ambitious. Let us just pick Saudi Arabia, for example. Saudi Arabia is not going to get us to where we need to get. Is it not time to get a little less visionary and much more pragmatic and recognise the fact that 80% of emissions come from 20 countries? Something like five industrial sectors are responsible for three-quarters of emissions. Is it not time to get very pragmatic and concentrate the conversation around those main players to get a deal done, around the smaller set of people that are actually going to make a difference?

  Dr Huq: Let me answer in two ways. Firstly, that small set of countries are the ones that will have to make the major concessions or changes to reduce or solve the emissions problem. If we just leave it to them to make the decision then in my view it is akin to the slave owners getting together and agreeing, "We don't like slavery, we're going to abolish it, but we will do it in a manner that does the least harm to us. We will phase it out, we will take it easy and it does not matter about the slaves, they're not invited to that decision-making process." For a billion people living in the poorest countries it is not about their emissions, it is about the big countries doing what is right to prevent the kind of dangerous climate change that the others will face. The consequences are not going to be borne by these few countries for their inaction. So being pragmatic may be one way to go but it is not going to solve the problems, it is not going to deliver. The only delivery will come under an agreed treaty, which is the only thing we have under the Framework Convention and that has to be done in Copenhagen. It is a window of opportunity. One has to be optimistic that we can get it there, perhaps unrealistically optimistic, but nevertheless I think that is the only place it will happen. Voluntary action by the big emitters is not going to deliver that.

  Q15  Chairman: I think the purpose of the question was that the present process is not going to achieve what is necessary. Some of us have just been in Australia and we talked to the head negotiator for the Australians. I came away from the meeting profoundly depressed. It was mired in process discussions and there was absolutely no focus at all on the urgency or the scale of the problem. I think this is a paralysis which allows the more backsliding big countries to hide. They are saying that it is not their fault, that it is all mired in this ridiculous paraphernalia. The only chance of making a substantial action is to narrow it down to a much smaller group.

  Dr Huq: I would put it slightly differently, if I may. I would say that what you are describing is the mindset of the negotiator. What we need is not the negotiator making these decisions but the Prime Minister making those decisions and he has to be visionary.

  Mr Kronick: I would agree that if you put all your eggs in the Kyoto basket you would be bound to be disappointed. It is excruciating, it is glacial—actually, it is not as fast as some glaciers. It is not an either/or proposition. There has to be an overarching framework. I think there is a real opportunity for some of those big countries, including the UK, to claim some of the first mover advantage. I do not want to tread off into domestic politics, but as long as the countries that are supposed to be at the forefront of solving the problems of climate change are still contemplating building new tens of gigawatts of unmitigated coal fired power stations and expanding airport capacity in already the busiest airport in the world it is very hard to see how that process is going to move forward in a way that has anything like goodwill or good faith or even due diligence. The process has lots of flaws, but until there is some real leadership shown not just by the UK but by the significant, highly leveraged economies the process is bound to be tied up in this painful negotiating because it will be a race to the bottom, it will be the slowest.

  Q16  Jo Swinson: I want to pick up on the point you raised about the tension in that you have got these much better developed countries now like Singapore and South Korea that are not being treated in that sort of category. In Australia we heard that there seemed to be very little prospect from this negotiating mindset that there could even be a change and that countries that have developed their economies can be moved into different categories for the purposes of this. What scope is there to take account of what development is taking place and re-evaluate what the responsibilities of different countries should be, and how might that impact on us achieving the goal of halving emissions by 2050?

  Dr Huq: One of the windows of opportunity that we have now in the post-2012 negotiations which we did not have in Kyoto was that Kyoto was a one-size-fits-all solution, it was a target minus from 1990 and that was it. I think we can be more nuanced now. Countries, developing countries in particular, can take on programmatic targets, other kinds of commitments which are not a minus target from a 1990 level. I think that is a good thing. There are opportunities to do that. There are sectoral opportunities, there are many kinds of technology-led opportunities, renewable commitment opportunities and so on which can lead to a much more nuanced regime of commitments that will deliver what we want in terms of a cleaner pathway and less emissions associated with them than just taking a minus X%, which is what they have had to do in Kyoto.

  Mr Kronick: There are some really specific examples one could point to. Clearly the electricity sector in rapidly developing economies is one which always gets pointed to, China and India, what about China and India? Let us develop mechanisms that allow us to support—when I say "us" I mean the developed economies—to support that transformation. It is clearly in our interest to do so. Stern onwards will say that those costs and those investments will be of huge benefit to developed as well as developing countries. Something that Greenpeace also feels is very important is the potential to develop a mechanism for avoided deforestation that allows countries which at the moment are not rapidly emerging economies but if we can avoid their emissions from deforestation it could make a really significant difference and add to the development pathway of those countries. There are mechanisms that I think need to be much more creative than we have been heretofore which genuinely has benefits for those developed countries and an incentive for them to get in as well as the nuanced approach to how you measure the progress.

  Q17  Jo Swinson: When we were in China they were powering ahead with energy efficiency, they were very keen to cut their emissions per unit of GDP, but they are obviously a rapidly developing economy. They have still got great strides forward they want to make for the quality of life of their population. They said that they were expecting their per capita emissions to rise and not stabilise until 2030. Do you think that kind of scenario can fit with the IPCC goals?

  Dr Huq: The Chinese and the developing countries by and large will have to be allowed a certain period of rising emissions. There is just no way they can turn around their ship that quickly, which means that developed countries may have to take on a bigger responsibility in the overall arena. If there is this major shift towards a cleaner development path globally then I think their ability to turn around will also become quicker because the technology drives for cleaner technologies to replace the old fossil fueling burning and dirtier technologies will be much, much more rapid and the deployment of that will become much more easy for those countries in particular. That is my feeling on that. It may be over-optimistic, I am not sure.

  Q18  Jo Swinson: So you think they might be able to revise that down from 2030 with more technology?

  Dr Huq: I think so, yes. What we have to get the developing countries, particularly the rapidly industrialising ones, to think about is to rethink their development paths, whether they can de-link quality of life improvements and poverty alleviation for the poor people in their countries without taking a very dirty fossil fuel dependent pathway. There are a variety of technologies that can be deployed to do that and if they can be scaled up they can deliver that within a few decades, yes.

  Q19  Jo Swinson: Let us say they are right and they will keep rising to 2030. What does that mean for overall global emissions? Does that throw it off course?

  Mr Philibert: It all depends on what is meant by rising. You can start controlling the growth rate. What you will do before stopping and reducing emissions is to have a slower growth rate and this is compatible with the objective of halving global CO2 emissions by 2050. There is still a little room for an increase in these emissions in the developing countries in the next ten to 15 years, but then we ought to enter into an era where global emissions decrease. I have just received the results of our last modeling exercise which will be published in the next few months on what is needed to achieve a halving of global energy related CO2 emissions by 2050 below 2000 levels and basically half of it will be energy efficiency improvements. So it is very important, it needs to start now and there is a lot to do in this arena. The other half is decarbonising the fuel mix. Basically we found that we could achieve that with about half of electricity production being renewables and the other half being shared in almost equal shares between nuclear and carbon dioxide capture and storage. Of course, if you can think up and implement big changes in the way people live and consume energy you will find different results, but we at the IEA are looking more at the technological aspects of it, not at the ways to reduce energy services, but with energy services kept constant at the baseline we have found that we can achieve this half with energy efficiency and the other half with a mix of renewable, nuclear and CCS.

  Mr Kronick: Greenpeace has also done lots of energy modelling and scenarios which enables you, not surprisingly, to achieve those goals without nuclear and without carbon capture and storage but with a different model for including decentralised energy distributed generation as well as ambitious targets for energy efficiency. I do not think it is all about technology and Greenpeace does not either. An over-emphasis on technology will lead us into a situation where the power politics of the market will determine. Whether it is a global commodity in carbon or a global commodity in coal, gas or even palm oil or biomass, the powerful players will drive it. There is inevitably a tension between ongoing global economic growth --- Nobody is willing at the moment, in the context of the discussion we are currently having, to challenge their right to economic growth and that includes the rich countries as well as the poor ones. So I think it comes back to what Saleemul referred to, how do you describe a quality of life this is not based solely on GDP? That makes it very difficult to square the circle that you have raised here. Why would the Chinese not want to have a quality of life that they would consider broadly comparable with ours? It would be insane and also unjust to insist that they were not allowed to do so. At the moment there is no equity or global justice mechanism within the current set of negotiations on Kyoto Plus and one will have to emerge. I know certain members of the Committee are enthusiastic about some frameworks. Greenpeace is not endorsing a particular framework, but there is no question that a framework will have to come into place. You only have to look at the most recent modelling to realise the fact that there is not very much room for growth in emissions in developing countries. A smooth—and I use this word advisedly—convergence of emissions pathways is not going to happen in the time available so we have to find another mechanism, whether it is the Greenhouse Development Rights that some people have put forward, there is a climate action Network International has put forward, a combined sort of framework, whether it is contraction and convergence or a combination of all of these things with elements, but until that becomes absolutely central to the way we talk about responding to climate change we are not going to solve the problem and China will not limit their emissions because why would they?



 
previous page contents next page

House of Commons home page Parliament home page House of Lords home page search page enquiries index

© Parliamentary copyright 2008
Prepared 8 July 2008