Filling the research gaps
90. In both written and oral evidence witnesses returned
time and again to the lack of available or reliable research on
personal carbon trading and related areas. A number of these have
already been highlighted in the course of the report. The road
map produced for Defra by the Centre for Sustainable Energy made
filling these research gaps a priority for taking the personal
carbon trading project forward.[71]
91. One of the most striking gaps in the research
lies in the extent and accuracy of assessments of current levels
of household energy use and transport patterns. Simon Roberts
told us that research of this kind was essential to 'get a better
picture of who are the winners and losers'.[72]
Dr Fawcett and Professor Ekins made similar calls for further
research in this area.[73]
Without this type of data it is difficult to assess how the fundamental
question of personal carbon trading would affect households.
92. Many other areas where further research was required
were flagged up by witnesses. Dr Fawcett named research into likely
reactions to personal carbon trading as a second priority,[74]
while Dr Eyre called for more research into the likely price of
carbon allowances and the consequences of a high or low price.[75]
Simon Roberts drew particular attention to the need to assess
the political acceptability and feasibility of personal carbon
trading.[76] Richard
Starkey called for further research on a range of issues, to assess
the relative costs and benefits of personal carbon trading as
compared to other instruments.[77]
93. Witnesses
told us repeatedly that existing research data is too sparse to
allow meaningful decisions in vital politically-sensitive areas
such as public acceptance, distributional impacts, and operational
costs. Crucially, a lack of comprehensive profiling data on current
energy use and transport patterns is restricting the accuracy
of predictions of the effect on personal carbon trading on different
groups. These research gaps are preventing not only the development
of personal carbon trading as a viable policy, but also its fair
comparison against other policy instruments. Without more extensive
data, the merits of personal carbon trading cannot be fully assessed.
94. Defra has been undertaking a pre-feasibility
work programme with the aim of assessing the value of personal
carbon trading. However, the CSE, who have cooperated with Defra
on studies into personal carbon trading, were concerned about
the ability of Defra to pursue the recommendations set out in
their 'road map'.
We do believe there is interest and willingness in
Defra to pursue these recommendations. Moreover, we do not believe
there are coherent efforts to pursue them currently in any other
organisation or research programme on a timely basis. However,
we are concerned that funding restrictions at Defra may undermine
genuine effort (at what should be modest cost) to establish a
robust and coherent research programme.[78]
In oral evidence, Simon Roberts of the CSE told us
bluntly that: 'there is a slight feeling in Defra that it would
be really nice if someone else was doing it already but I do not
see that happening'.[79]
This view was supported by Dr Fawcett, who was particularly concerned
about the inadequate resources dedicated to the topic, both inside
and outside Government.[80]
It is particularly important that Defra's role is one of coordinating
and enabling further research, rather than retreading ground already
covered by academics.
95. Shortly
before publication of our Report, Defra released the results of
their preliminary study into personal carbon trading.[81]
We welcome the level of work and analysis that has gone into
this study, and we hope that it serves to progress the case for
personal carbon trading. We note that Defra's study agrees with
our findings in a number of crucial areas: firstly, that personal
carbon trading is fiscally progressive, and secondly, that there
are no insurmountable technical barriers to such a scheme. We
recognise the extent of the Government's concern over public resistance
to personal carbon trading and the potentially high cost of implementing
it. These are undeniably difficult areas. However, we regret
that, as a result of this, the Government is indicating that it
will wind down its work on personal carbon trading. Public acceptance
of personal carbon trading may seem a distant or unlikely prospect
to the Government, but without some leadership and co-ordination
it is unlikely to move beyond the realm of academic study. Although
we commend the Government for its intention to maintain engagement
in the academic debate, we urge it to do more. Work needs to be
done now if we are to ever reach the point when the concept becomes
acceptable to the public and we would like to see the Government
leading and shaping debate and co-ordinating activity and research.
Without action of this kind it is unlikely that personal carbon
trading could become a viable policy in the foreseeable future.
Pilot scheme
96. At first glance, the complexity and sensitivity
of personal carbon trading seems to demand a pilot scheme. A pilot
scheme could provide valuable evidence about how easily the public
would understand and participate in trading and about what variation
in allowances would be needed to achieve the maximum degree of
fairness. Furthermore a pilot scheme in a defined geographical
area could be operated on a virtual basis with no money changing
hands. However, there are a number of restrictions to a pilot
scheme's effectiveness. Under a fixed-term, geographically-restricted
pilot there might be little incentive to make behavioural changes,
especially if there was no guarantee that the pilot would evolve
into a nationwide scheme. Without this incentive for long-term
investment it would prove difficult to assess the extent of likely
behavioural changes that would occur under a full scheme.
97. There are alternatives to a public pilot scheme
that do not attract the same risks. Broadly, these fall into two
categories: activities which help researchers to assess and improve
different aspects of the project, and activities which help acclimatise
and prepare the population for the implementation of the full
scheme. For example, RSA told us about their plans to undertake
a pilot of a carbon credit card, and the development of their
voluntary online carbon trading model, CarbonDAQ,[82]
while Dr Fawcett discussed the benefit of using focus groups and
small exercises to assess attitudes and responses to personal
carbon trading.[83] A
pilot is not a prerequisite for the implementation of large schemes,
however complex the operation or preparations may be. The CSE
noted that the Congestion Charge was implemented without a pilot,
and instead used simulations and behind the scenes testing to
refine the technology and systems. Complex and wide-reaching schemes
can be implemented successfully without a pilot phase, provided
that there has been significant backroom work, trials and testing
in advance. Trials, focusing on separate, limited aspects of
the whole project offer an opportunity to assess different components
of the scheme without the demands and risks of a full-scale pilot.
98. Personal
carbon trading does not lend itself easily to a pilot or comprehensive
trial. The conditions required accurately to simulate behaviour
and transactions under a full personal carbon trading scheme would
be difficult to replicate in a pilot with limited participation.
We do not believe that it is feasible to address all aspects of
personal carbon trading under a single pilot. An alternative approach
involving smaller, separately targeted activities focused on particular
aspects of the proposed scheme may be preferable.
99. Personal
carbon trading could be essential in helping to reduce our national
carbon footprint. Further work is needed before personal carbon
trading can be a viable policy option and this must be started
urgently, and in earnest. In the meantime there is no barrier
to the Government developing and deploying the policies that will
not only prepare the ground for personal carbon trading, but which
will ensure its effectiveness and acceptance once implemented.
71 Simon Roberts and Joshua Thumim, Centre for Sustainable
Energy, A Rough Guide to Individual Carbon Trading: The ideas,
the issues and the next steps, November 2006, pp 37-39 Back
72
Q 17 Back
73
Q 199 [Dr Fawcett] and Q 216 [Professor Ekins] Back
74
Q 199 Back
75
Q 122 Back
76
Q 45 Back
77
Q 100 Back
78
Ev 3 Back
79
Q 45 Back
80
Q 199 Back
81
Defra, Synthesis report on the findings from Defra's pre-feasibility
study into personal carbon trading, April 2008. Back
82
Ev 58 Back
83
Q 198 Back
