Select Committee on Environmental Audit Minutes of Evidence


Examination of Witnesses (Questions 1-19)

MR SIMON ROBERTS AND MR JOSHUA THUMIN

10 JULY 2007

  Q1 Chairman: Good morning and a warm welcome for you both. This is the very first evidence session we have had on this subject although quite a number of us are extremely interested in it and therefore have been thinking about it for some time. But as it is the first one and you are the first witnesses do you want to give an outline of how you think a personal carbon trading system would actually work and what it would mean for the individuals who are taking part?

  Mr Roberts: That is quite a big question. What I would say is that you would end up with a situation where the government or an independent committee determined the amount of emissions that the domestic sector was allowed to emit. In most of the models of domestic carbon trading you then divide those equally amongst the domestic population of individuals within the household sector, and you can give them each an equal share of that amount of carbon, rights to emit on an annual basis. People would then submit those rights or give up those credits as they used up energy through buying fuel, electricity, gas, or buying petrol for cars or by buying air travel—those are usually the combination of things that are included. You would also almost inevitably have some kind of "pay as you go" systems for those people who did not have access to their credits or run out and they would be able to buy some on an open market. Individuals would end up having to make decisions about the best way in which they could reduce their carbon emissions. They would have to take the carbon content of their purchasing decisions into account and they would have a choice across these either to reduce their own emissions or to pay someone else through the trading system in effect to reduce it for them. This will effectively increase the cost of their lifestyle if it is a carbon intensive lifestyle: or it would reduce the cost of their lifestyle if it was a less carbon intensive lifestyle.

  Q2  Chairman: The tax system reflects through varying allowances, extra allowances and so on, the different position of certain individuals or indeed families and given that, for example, people with certain physical conditions might of necessity have to keep their houses at a warmer temperature than other people, do you envisage that to make such a system equitable and indeed acceptable it would be necessary to complicate it by having a series of allowances or differences in the allocations which reflected the different circumstances of the individual people?

  Mr Roberts: I think you can either complicate the system, which is probably an approach you would not want to follow through, or you look at ways in which you support households that would find it harder, for example, to respond to a limited allowance because of their need. You would look at ways of doing that outside the system, as we do at the moment, for example, with schemes for giving grants for insulation to low income households; as deliberate intervention above and beyond whatever system one has. You also need to remember that this is not coming into a system which is fair and equitable at the moment, as you are indicating that some people have more opportunities to reduce emissions than others. What the cap and trade system would actually mean is that those people who have most opportunities to reduce and the lowest cost opportunity to reduce would take those steps first.

  Q3  Chairman: Do you think it is a concept that would lend itself to having a pilot model, say in a local authority area so that people could get used to how it would work and it could be done without financial penalties for a trial period?

  Mr Thumim: I think there are some problems with that approach, partly because one of the fundamental definitions of a national personal carbon trading scheme would be its compulsory nature and the fact that everybody was included, which, by definition, would not be true of a local area pilot. Two, you would have boundary problems with people going outside and obtaining energy services with carbon content that they would then use within the area, so it might be difficult to establish and run. Also a lot of the public reactions to the system will be based around the way it works and the way they interface with it. With a pilot you would probably be in a situation where it was a very sub optimal version of what you would end up rolling out. So people's first encounter with this concept would be a slightly rough and ready version of the system which you might end up with, and that might contaminate public opinion unnecessarily. A couple of examples of systems, whether you like them or not, where that was avoided (so that any objections are not on the way the system operates), would be, for example, the London Congestion Charge where there was not a pilot and it works, and the introduction of the Euro, which, whether you like it or not, was fairly operationally smoothly handled and is a very geographically wide area system.

  Mr Roberts: I think the key question is what questions are you trying to answer with a pilot. What you will not be able to answer is "do the systems work?" because you will have a sub-optimal system that you have kind of knocked together to try and create a transaction based system for a local area. People have talked about annexing the Isle of Wight for this benefit but I suspect the Member representing that constituency might decide that that was not the best place to do it, but the way you try and constrain it. But the transaction system, which is actually the interface most people will have with it and the ability to keep track of where they are with their allowance and get feedback on it and think about products and services so that they are labelled and all the other accoutrements of the scheme, you hope would be put in place in order to make people find it as easy as possible to act within a scheme. But those will not be there within any pilot because it will be too limited geographically. And I think there is a danger, as Josh is saying, of contaminating the concept and people's response to it when actually their response is to a poorly working operational system. You could liken it to putting in ATMs before they actually really work so that sometimes you get the right cash out of it and sometimes you do not and sometimes when you go on the system has crashed, and all those kinds of things. What people will get is not a response to getting cash out of a bank by putting in a card but actually a response to a system which was sub optimal and not working properly, and I think you would contaminate any assessment of the public's response to such a system.

  Q4  Chairman: Do you think it is a desirable idea?

  Mr Roberts: I think it is best to say that we are probably agnostic on the issue at the moment because there are a lot of issues that need to be sorted out as we identified in the report, the work we did for Defra. Having said agnostic, as with all agnostics there is something about it that is quite appealing and that is basically that it is very difficult to see how you get individuals around the UK engaged with the carbon impacts of their lifestyle and starting to have to do something about it on a long-term sustained basis, which is fair, and where the burden is not carried by those people who have done cuts and where the cost is not borne by them while other people who cannot be bothered to do something about their lifestyle carry on without any implication for them. On that basis in terms of actually constraining carbon in the economy it is one of the few policy tools that makes you have to face up to that fact and think about it, so it is quite useful from the political science point of view. But on a medium to long-term basis how else do you get 60 million people to think about the carbon implications of what they are doing. It does it in terms of consciousness, I think, in ways that things like taxes do not do because we are rather used to money and we are rather used to dealing with fluctuations in the prices of things which actually go up and down all the time. What we are not used to dealing with is trading in our minds a decision between whether I fly to New York or insulate my house, and that becomes very interesting. It also takes away from the issue any moral dimension about whether flying to New York is better or worse than any other kinds of carbon emissions—it just treats them all as equal and you make your decisions. If you want to fly but live in a carbon zero home then that is a choice you would actually be forced to make in the end or you would have to be paying someone else to do it and paying for the pollution that you are currently causing for free.

  Q5  Mr Challen: I can confirm, Chair, that I have already been upbraided by the Member for the Isle of Wight for volunteering his constituency for a pilot scheme, so that is pretty clear! If we did introduce personal carbon allowances what kind of contribution do you think they could make to help the government to achieve its overall carbon reductions target, which is currently set at at least 60%?

  Mr Roberts: It depends on how tight politicians were prepared to set the cap, basically, and over what timescale, but obviously if you have 42% of the emissions being caused directly by individuals buying energy for their use in the home or travelling by petrol or aviation in any system—and I do not think the government has yet been entirely clear about how it shares out the burden of achieving those reductions across the economy—if you have a situation of 42% emissions which need constraining then you need some mechanism for doing that. If you set the cap effectively on the trajectory you want to achieve you do not actually need to have another instrument to do it somewhere else. You might know what instruments stimulate markets for any of these services and so forth, but you could set it so that it was actually on a trajectory from now until the target you want to achieve on a drop down, steep curve, or a gentle start curve or a straight line, whatever you wanted. There is a separate question though: "are politicians prepared to sustain that?" because it will get harder as you go further down and the costs will go up, but it has the potential to do precisely that, which is one of the reasons why it has that enticing element to it.

  Mr Thumim: It is really important to add that you must not confuse the instrument with the target that is in place to deliver. So any target can be delivered this way. You can deliver an increase in emissions with it by setting the cap at 20% higher than current emissions. So the issue is that it does create the thinking which faces up to the target as a reality because that is what is exciting and perhaps kind of scary about this policy idea, when you think it through you actually think, "Hang on a minute, that is going to constrain carbon emissions in the economy in all these different ways, there can be a lot of effects from that, what are they going to be like, do we like them?" That is completely separate from have we got a carbon emissions target, do we want to cut emissions, and it links them effectively. So the answer to your question is any target, but the tighter the target the more profound the effects.

  Q6  Mr Challen: The target we have is up to 2050 but you have already referred to one of the problems that we might have with such a system in that if you have a shallow curve you might be able to introduce it more smoothly and iron out any problems before people started complaining, but on the other hand Stern reminds us that early benefits can be gained by disproportionate effort at the very beginning. Do you have any evidence that would show which kind of approach is the most optimal?

  Mr Roberts: No, is the simple answer to that. I think it comes back to the political reality, which is that the cap is set politically and not scientifically—although under the Climate Change Bill there would be a committee, in theory, which would be contributing to that process, but ultimately the ministers decide. I think it is a question: "how are we going to constrain carbon issues in the economy and achieve those reductions?" And you need some policy tools to achieve that. What you get with a cap and trade is some certainty over the fact that you are going to achieve that; what you do not know is what the price of doing that is going to be. It may well be, because we do not have a lot of data about it, that the cost of reducing carbon emissions for most households is relatively slim because they can simply choose to take a holiday that does not involve flying or they can actually take advantage of one of the many energy supply schemes to insulate their home or just improve their habits and reduce the carbon intensive lifestyle through behaving differently. All those things are relatively low cost, if not zero cost, and therefore the cost of getting down that curve to start off with may be very, very low. In which case the cost of carbon in that particular system would be low as well. What we do not know at the moment is where you start to hit the steep part of the marginal abatement cost curve? Where does it suddenly get steep and how does that distribute across different types of households, different types of people? Some people have very immediate, very high costs to reduce emissions and other people have an awful lot of spare capacity to cut emissions through choices they are making which are actually just about habit and behaviour, and I think you need much more of that kind of information to start to map out who would be suffering and where the squeeze would be depending on what curve you introduced. My suspicion would be that taking history as a lesson it will be introduced gently. But then I think we are seeing that in terms of the way in which the efforts are being made to constrain carbon in the economy at the moment: we are introducing it very, very gently at the moment, certainly in the sense we are not actually managing to do it! So on that basis it at least has the potential for doing rather more than that.

  Q7  Mr Challen: Looking at the technology of such a scheme I think it is correct to say that the Tesco Clubcard has about 40 billion transactions a year and it is envisaged that this scheme might have about 15 billion, does that indicate that the technology side of it is going to be a bit of a doddle or are we not really comparing like with like?

  Mr Roberts: From the work we have done—and we have not gone into that side in a lot of depth, but from some time in my background working in the banking sector where I had a brief foray—we have a very good transaction system and we have a very good accounting system—we have a banking system and a system for transacting—so think of your carbon account as being another type of financial account. If the banks are happy to do it, which I have no doubt they would for the right price, you could have a euro account a dollar account a pound account and you could create a carbon account. And you could link it up with the transaction systems and you do not need to build anything new to do that. That holds far more information than the Tesco Clubcard system does at the moment in terms of the banking system as a whole. Where I think you have an issue is with the allocation system: how do you identify and get the right amount of carbon credits to the right accounts smoothly with a tolerable level of fraud—you are never going to eradicate it altogether—and I think that is the bit where you have more systems. We have at the moment government systems which get money to people, child benefit, tax allowances, all kinds of other things like that—your Public Accounts Committee equivalent has raised some interesting points on that. It is a question of how accurate you want it to be and how resilient to fraud you want it to be. I think the systems bit is probably the most straightforward as long as you are not asking for something completely independent to be set up, which you would not want for this; you would want it to be part of the transaction system, which is effectively what the club card is—it goes through the till, it is not complicated.

  Q8  Martin Horwood: Simon, it is good to see you again after all these years—a strange place to meet up. You and I both have some experience of marketing and the systems a bit like club card and I think you are probably right that this is a relatively simple system to set up. But surely the complications of these systems is not actually in setting them up, it is in operating them and that is when the cards get nicked, they get lost, people misunderstand them, people run up huge bills without understanding the consequences, and that is with a voluntary scheme like a club card or a credit card. This is going to compel people who cannot even cope with those kinds of schemes to take part, and is that not going to be where the real practical problems happen?

  Mr Roberts: I think there are some issues about that but I think we need to be careful, because people will be given an allowance so there is a kind of gift for them to use up or possibly sell on the first day. But actually as people who were in the first phase of the EUETS who sold up on the first day will know that might be quite a good financial decision to make, depending on what you think the price of carbon is going to do over time. In relation to the issues, in the work we did for Defra we looked at the financial literacy issues and there is about one-fifth of the population who really are not very good at dealing with money and living within their means and all those kinds of things. But quite a lot of these are actually fairly well off as well, so I would be less concerned about them because they will effectively have to pay for their profligacy. I think it would be quite difficult—and you would not want to encourage it anyway—for people to rack up a huge carbon purchase without meaning to, other than through using an awful lot more energy than they want to, or filling up several cars worth of petrol rather than one. There are certain limits to what you could actually do in terms of how far you could push it. So I think there are serious issues about how you make sure how you support people working with the system and managing it, in the way that they did, for example, with introducing decimalisation, with introducing the Euro, people had to get used to a whole different way of thinking about their money and the systems and the transactions they were undertaking. I think you need to think about that. Any system would have a "pay as you go" element to it which some people would prefer to use from a budgeting point of view, I am quite sure, and obviously there would be a slight spread as there is for most of those things between the sale price and the buy price, but we do not actually know how that would work because we do not know what the price of carbon is going to be; so it may actually be better to sell in the first week and take advantage of the drop of price over time in the first few years.

  Q9  Martin Horwood: But there are people, as we know as MPs, who have difficulty coping with budgeting money, let alone carbon as well. Tax credits and things like this throw people into complete consternation and distress, and these are the people you are going to give a carbon allowance.

  Mr Roberts: But we have not abolished money in order to deal with that, we try and educate them and support them and work through schools, as we are hearing about today, on initiatives to help people deal with money management and so forth. We are not very good at training people on how to manage money. There is a proportion of the population who would find it more difficult than others. The actual financial implication of PCAs may be quite limited in the first instance, so we should not overblow it and suddenly they are going to rack up thousands of pounds worth of carbon debt in some way or whatever because they would have to be buying as they went or using it up. So I think there is a danger of overstating it. You would need to find ways of supporting those people who find it difficult to participate in the system to their maximum advantage, i.e. people who are disadvantaged by the fact that they cannot participate or are unable or do not understand how to participate, you would have to look at ways to do that. But I do not think it would be any more complicated than a money based system, and it is far fewer transactions and it is controlled and they get an allowance to start off with, so it is a bit like saying, "Here is £100, you decide how to spend it and once you have spent it you have to buy things which will cost you more than if you just spend within it."

  Q10  Mr Challen: Here we are talking about a scheme, which will be national, mandatory, so pretty comprehensive, but it occurs to me that it may duplicate things that we already have. The EUETS, for example, already covers great parts of the energy sector and many other things too. Could this co-exist with other schemes? I could see how it could co-exist with taxation and regulation but other trading schemes offsetting, what kinds of impact would it have on those areas where it might begin to duplicate?

  Mr Thumim: There are potential complications, if you imagine a carbon trading system running in parallel with the EUETS, and that arises where you have units of carbon that are effectively operated in both markets, so the overlap between what we are talking about now, which would be the domestic system with the EUETS, will be where you have domestic electricity use, and the domestic users have a permit and the power station operators have a permit on another system, which is in the same geographic area, i.e. Europe. So you have some at first glance (which is the analysis we have done so far), pretty odd effects from that system because if you make a reduction in the domestic system, two trading systems can take it up, one domestically and one somewhere else in Europe, so you get the reverse of what you would have thought. So, yes, that means looking at them very carefully; you could not just say, "Right, we are just going to do this in parallel with what we have already." So I think anything where the system you are talking about is also a carbon trading system you have to look at it very carefully and think about the best way of bringing it in, and it may not be something you do overnight, and you could imagine that it might be something that emerged on a European level anyway later in which we played a part. If you are comparing it to measures that are not carbon trading then there is not a problem and most of those, for example the renewables obligation or other regulatory instruments, are there to facilitate the opportunities to live within the carbon budget and you can look at it in that way. In terms of offsets, unless an offset is actually a carbon credit I am not sure what is worth anyway, so I would not be worried about that. I think this would end the need for offsets effectively; I am not sure what function they would have in a situation where you already have a carbon budget and it was effectively constraining in a real way the emissions that individuals could cause.

  Mr Roberts: Offsets, as we know from the recent work Defra did, only create reductions in carbon if they are actually part of another capped system, so you are effectively trading between two deficits and in other words you are just leaving it—"I have reduced but have they done something else? I do not really know." So what you have here is an opportunity for me to pay you to offset my carbon by you actually doing something in terms of it rather than leaving it to some slightly onerous and difficult to understand process by which someone on the other side of the world might have done something to possibly not increase their emissions by quite as much as they would have done otherwise.

  Q11  Mr Challen: Are you aware of any other European countries at least that are looking at personal carbon allowances?

  Mr Roberts: I am not aware of it, no. Just to expand on this issue with the EUETS I think there is a point in time where we may need to move from focusing on the point of emitting to the point of demand in terms of where you regulate and I think there is a discussion and issue to be addressed there, particularly in the electricity system where while it might get people switching between coal and gas as a choice and other low carbon technologies at the moment you are specifically not allowed to count demand side measures as part of your process for meeting your EUETS targets.

  Q12  Mr Challen: It does raise the very interesting question of, if I put coal in my hearth—I do not actually have a coal fire, but if I did—and I use that coal and it was actually exported from China who would be responsible for that under a personal carbon allowance scheme?

  Mr Roberts: You would have to give up some of your allowances when you bought the coal.

  Q13  Mr Challen: Would that then relieve China of its need to set stiff targets?

  Mr Roberts: It would only be an issue if you are regulating the amount of carbon emissions by telling China or anyone else how much coal they can mine out of the ground.

  Mr Thumim: You would not apply that to oil necessarily.

  Mr Roberts: So at the moment, like petrol some of it comes from the North Sea but a lot of it comes from elsewhere, if the regulation was on how much carbon you could buy in effect then coal of itself is not a bad thing, it is only when we burn it we start causing problems. So it is the point of combustion that is where you would want to apply the cap and the regulation. Obviously what it would do is reduce your demand for coal imports from China if you decided that rather than burn it, you decided to avoid it.

  Q14  Mr Challen: It begs the question about embedded carbon in all products.

  Mr Roberts: Yes, and that is a broader issue and it is why it is important that you cannot just look at domestic carbon emission rates of itself. Most of the evidence would suggest that the public would expect the rest of society, the economy in effect, to be constrained in some way as well, and some of the proposals for domestic carbon emission trading include some mechanism for auctioning off the rights of the rest of the economy and businesses and organisations and recycling the revenue in various ways, which I think may be an over complication of how one would go about it at this stage and the knowledge about how it would work.

  Q15  Joan Walley: In your report you warned that the whole debate could very easily descend into some kind of confrontational debate and then you had that kind of response in fact to your own report. Could you give the Committee some kind of idea of some of the responses that you got which took you aback slightly?

  Mr Roberts: I think, as has been identified in our evidence, there is quite a lot, particularly from what one might call left of centre analysis, that this is somehow going to constrain the poor and they will be trading their deprivation for cash and this is just a means for the rich to carry on polluting and pay for it. To which the answer is at the moment the poor get no cash for their deprivation and the rich do not pay anyone to pollute. So, yes, it is a point. But what this system actually does if you are constraining carbon emissions is to make sure that those people who are currently constraining get some benefit from those people who are not. So there is a "think it through" answer to that one. Also, more recently there was a situation where a representative of an energy supplier in response to a presentation on the issue from someone from Defra said, "Would I have to cut off my customer if they do not have enough carbon credits?" to which the knee-jerk response is, "Yes, like you do if they do not have enough money," but a more considered response is there would be a pay as you go scheme so they would need to find a way, if they have not any carbon credits, of effectively buying some credits, which no doubt the supplier would have a system to sell them to the customer anyway because that is how they are all set up and that is how it would work, so it would end up having a similar kind of effect—it would be just a price they would be paying rather than some credits they would be giving up. It felt like people very quickly get into a position in relation to that and other people saying, "Absolutely no point, we have a tax system, just use that," and some people say in relation to the regressive nature of it that tax is far more regressive than a personal carbon allowance because you do not give anyone anything before you even start taxing their carbon content, whereas with a carbon allowance you give them the right to emit equally, and effectively you are redistributing rights principally from the rich to the poor on average—not entirely though.

  Mr Thumim: It is interesting that a lot of the objections, certainly from the left of centre, would be not to the rationing aspect of it—because effectively this is a combination of a rationing system where the trading happens not on the black market but above board—and you find that people do not object to the concept of rationing, the right to emit, but they sometimes object to the concept that you should be able to buy and sell that right, the trouble being that the efficiency that is expected of the carbon trading system is a product of that trading, so there is an issue there.

  Q16  Joan Walley: So do you feel that that response is really representative of the general public at large?

  Mr Roberts: No, I do not think we know enough about the general public; if you ask the general public they go, "What, why would we want to do that?" but you ask them the very direct question actually about a system that you cannot explain very easily, as I demonstrated at the start of this evidence session. But the public response to it will be conditioned by the fact that they have no frame of reference for what we are talking about, so in that sense how could you expect to get a response which would actually be "genuine"? I think the more interesting thing about the responses of people is what it is that they are actually about is a response to genuinely trying to constrain carbon emissions in the UK economy and really having a strong focus on the lifestyles we lead that are too carbon intensive at the moment. So they come up with the various arguments against it but actually they are arguments about constraining carbon in the economy, generally speaking, rather than against this particular tool for doing it. Because as a tool for doing it, on most criteria of users, it is fairer, generally, and it creates a consciousness about the carbon content of decisions in ways that other mechanisms like tax do not. And it sits neatly with all other things around regulation to create the services which people would need in order to respond. So I think a lot of it is, as we said in our evidence, ill considered and not thought through, but people feeling that they desperately need to have a position in relation to it because the Secretary of State made an announcement about it and the latest Secretary of State suggested it should be a manifesto commitment in the next election in his speech at SERA back in March. So there are all kinds of places where it is coming up and people feel the need to have some response and I think in most cases they have not actually thought it through. That is what we would hope would happen, that there would be a more considered exploration of the issue so that we were actually having it based on fact rather than a knee-jerk nice sound bite type reaction to it.

  Q17  Joan Walley: But is not the conundrum how you actually go about having an informed public debate without this sort of detail so that people could actually see how it will work? So what would need to be in place rather than perhaps a pilot project in one part of the country, the Isle of Wight or wherever, to get that informed public debate so that you could have a more seasoned, well judged response to it?

  Mr Roberts: Two things. One is that you would need to deal with the operational feasibility issue, you would need to know roughly how much it is going to cost to get the banks to run it and how you would allocate it and deal with that side of it, which I think is fairly straightforward but needs nailing, not to actually get it done but to know what the issues would be you would have to resolve and what time it would take and how much it would cost. The other side is to get a lot more data about the domestic sector, what the cost of our emissions are and how they distribute across the domestic sector, what opportunity to distribute across the sector as well. So you can actually get a picture of who are the winners and losers because at the moment we do not have a very good picture of that. There is a bit of work which has been done but it is on quite old data. I think you need a better picture of that so that you can go out to the public to have a discussion that is actually based on real fact. But I would actually say that there is a subset of the public which is more important at this stage, which is actually the political subset of the public, politicians. I think the key question at this stage is what will the politicians need to know about how the public will react in order to make a decision about it, and there is a lot of this that "we need to have an informed debate". Well, the politicians maybe should have that informed debate first in terms of actually understanding the issues and thinking it through, but I think the public at this stage are not really ready to have a discussion about whether it should be carbon rationing or carbon taxes or whatever, because they are only just getting to the point where there is a recognition we need to constrain carbon in the economy. It is only if you are having it in that context because it is not a question of doing this or nothing but it is a question of doing this or these other things instead—would you rather have a carbon allowance or a heavy tax on petrol and domestic fuel? That is, in a way, the kind of choice you need to be putting in front of people rather than, "What do you think about this?" If you were going out to the public now what I would say is go out and ask them, "On what basis do you think this would be acceptable? What are the criteria you would apply to it?" And from the limited out of work that has been to date people would say, "We do not want to see any free riders, we want it to be fair, we want it to be part of a system which covers the whole economy and we want some element of understanding that it is going to be fairly resistant to fraud and people are not going to be able to spot exactly how much energy I have bought here, there or everywhere," so that there is not going to be some Big Brother element to it, all of which I think you can address.

  Q18  Joan Walley: As a part of that things that would be needed would you say there should be some kind of an indication of what a year's carbon allowance might consist of and where would you set that?

  Mr Roberts: I think you would set it at the current level minus 2/3%. That is the other thing, people suddenly think—

  Q19  Joan Walley: When you say "current level" whose current level?

  Mr Roberts: The current level of carbon emissions from the domestic sector. We know it is 42% of the total UK emissions.



 
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