Examination of Witnesses (Questions 20-21)
DR ROY
ALLISON, PROFESSOR
MARGOT LIGHT
AND DR
ALEX PRAVDA
25 APRIL 2007
Q20 Ms Stuart: I have one more question.
It is about Russia's part in international organisations and one
in particular, which is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
We kept coming across it when we went to China and central Asia.
The organisation deals mainly with the security of energy supply,
but also with terrorism in certain parts of the world. How do
you think Russia would wish to shape that organisation and what
is your assessment of the organisation itself?
Professor Light: I see Russia's
interest in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation primarily as
a means of containing Chinese influence in central Asia. In terms
of its activity as an international organisation, there is very
little to indicate that it is going to be any more effective or
any more active than the CIS itself or the Collective Security
Treaty Organisation. So, for me at any rate, it is still a shell
organisation, but extremely useful for this purpose of containing
China.
Q21 Chairman: We are very short of
time. We have five more minutes because other witnesses are waiting.
I apologise to them, but we started slightly late.
What is your assessment of the best way that
the British Government can support democratic developments in
the former Soviet states that border Russia without antagonising
Russia? Or is that impossible?
Professor Light: That is a contradiction
in terms.
Dr Pravda: To go back to the points
made earlier about the best ways to instil greater best practice
within Russia itself and within these other states, the way to
do it is perhaps to steer clear of grand statements about democracy
and about the ways in which democracy should be taking root as
a natural accompaniment to market liberalisation and to adhere
very much more strictly to ways of doing things—to return
to the point made by Roy—not just the rule of law, as such,
but the way in which commercial and contract law operate if you
want to make effective deals. Spread that to the other countries
and also, very importantly, do not restrict your contacts either
to the very high or the very low. Do not restrict your contact
just to the Kremlin, the equivalent presidencies or to the most
dissident NGOs around, but deal also with those who are coming
out critically because they are encouraged by some Western attention.
It would be wrong to abandon them in that way at all. You should
also engage with those in the middle, the small business people
such as people running local authorities, and look at it in more
technical terms and see if we can instil best practice of what
works within their own country, whether that is Ukraine, Russia
or Uzbekistan and proceed from there, rather than come with ready
made models of any kind, let alone talk about normative democracy
as the only way forward.
Dr Allison: One framework that
exists and is likely to be used increasingly is that of the action
plans agreed by individual states such as Ukraine as part of the
new neighbourhood policy of the European Union. These are developed
by those states and in consultation with the EU. They contain
within them commitments and suggestions for development of behaviour
in ways which will help those countries converge in many respects
with expectations of conduct in the EU zone. Quite a lot of this
is technocratic and programmatic. The discussion and references
there are not so much about democratisation as about governance.
There is a lot of low politics. It is not the kind of engagement
that has the higher profile that would tend to attract the critical
commentary from Russia such as politicians making speeches in
capitals urging certain kinds of conduct and giving direct support
to particular political groups. That approach at that level is
more likely to be effective and less likely to attract direct
Russian criticism.
Professor Light: I should like
to plead for even-handedness so that we do not treat the countries
that have natural resources differently from those that do not.
Chairman: Thank you. That is a whole
wider area, but it gives us some food for thought. I am grateful
to all three of you—Dr Allison, Professor Light and Dr Pravda—for
coming along today. It has been a very useful start. I will now
ask anyone who wishes to leave the public gallery to do so now.
Our other witnesses will now come down. We will break for two
minutes while we change over our witnesses.
| 
