Memorandum submitted by Neighbours Against
Demolition
What has been the effect of Housing Market
Renewal Initiative (HMRI) on levels of supply, demand and availability
of social rented housing (SRH) in Pathfinder (PF) participating
local authorities?
NAO/HMR 9-11-07 at para 6/p31 states, "HMR/PF's,
have a higher concentration of social (& private) rented housing."
The report makes no further reference to the issue. Social rented
housing lies within the multi-level, multi-factor complex dynamics
of housing market analysis, but nevertheless should be identified
as a separate issue for investigation.
What studies has DCLG commissioned to monitor
and evaluate the continuing effects of HMR programme on SRH?
BACKGROUND
1. PAT 7 Unpopular Housing 1999, reported
low demand with prevalence in private sector and significant levels
in LA and RSL stock in the North West Region.
2. CURS Report M62 Corridor Study/February
2001 was commissioned by social rented housing providers on the
basis of increasing vacancies and high turnover of some stock
in the sector. CURS found patterns of changing demand for housing
from inner urban to suburban and from SRH to owner occupation,
leaving areas characterised by predominance of one tenure, large
scale provision of a single dwelling type, together with socio-economic
and demographic factors.
3. CURS concluded that "neighbourhoods
at risk (of changing demand) are predominantly social housing
areas." Their analysis also demonstrated "an almost
perfect statistical relationship between fall in male unemployment
and the fall in waiting lists for social housing 1992-99."
Their main recommendation was a "strategic restructuring
of housing markets."
4. ODPM/April 2002 announcement on creation
of HMRI Pathfinders, expressly included the need to address long
term voids and low demand in social rented housing stock within
the programme for restructuring housing markets. ODPM had published
the Decent Homes Standard by 2010 for all SRH stock.
CURRENT PATTERNS
OF CHANGE
5. The North West Region contains 4 x HMR
PF's. Regional Policy documents from 2000 onwards incorporated
issues of changing demand, low demand, obsolescence, unfitness
and disrepair.
6. North West Regional Housing Strategy
2003 (NWRHS) showed the Region contained the highest proportion
of empty property in England at 4.5% of the stock across all tenures,
with low demand affecting 14.7% of the Regions homes. The NWRHS
2003 & 2005 prioritised the HMR restructuring programme.
7. The DCLG statistics for the NW Region
show:
— In 1999 total social rented housing
stock was 666,818, contained 25,700 voids with a waiting list
118,829 (households).
— In 2001 the social rented housing
stock was 640,606, voids were 28,651 and the waiting list was
112,405 (households). 2001 had the lowest waiting lists figure.
— By 2006 the stock had reduced to
590,756, the voids reduced to 16,764; the waiting list had increased
to 217,397 (households).
— Between 2001 and 2006 the social
rented housing stock has reduced by 49,850 (7.8%), voids have
reduced by 11,887 (41.5% of voids) and the waiting list has increased
by 104,992 households (93%).
8. The NewHeartlands (NH) Pathfinder/Prospectus/October
2003/Executive Summary employing the CURS indicators stated that
"significant parts of Merseyside have seen a collapse in
their local housing markets". These areas are "characterised
by low value, monolithic terraced housing with a low level of
owner occupation housing with higher levels of social housing
and generally high levels of private rented stock . . . (with)
symptoms of high vacancy levels, abandonment, sluggish market
conditions and physical and environmental decay linked with wider
economic malaise."
9. NewHeartlands Scheme Update 2005, shows the tenure
profile in the local authorities HMRI Intervention areas 2004;
— Liverpool CC- Private 51,358 (62.1%),
Social 31,343 (37.9%), total households at 82,701.
— Sefton MBC- Private 14,626 (63.6%),
Social 8,376 (36.4%), total households at 23,002.
— Wirral MBC- Private 14,460 (61.1%),
Social 9,187 (38.9%), total households at 23,647.
Total stock tenure profile; Private is 80,444
(62.2%), Social is 48,906 (37.9%).
10. NH Prospectus 2003 p.51, HMRI intervention
in these areas through new housing was to achieve a restructuring
70% owner occupation and 30% affordable housing.
11. In 2001 NH total social rented housing
stocks in Liverpool, Sefton & Wirral was 114,528, with a waiting
list 17,172. By 2006 social rented housing stock had reduced by
11,936 to 102,592 (-10.4%) and the waiting list had increase by
21,708 to 38,870 (126%).
12. Sefton MBC HMRI in NH Prospectus 2003,
"displays many of the characteristics of low demand—supply
is dominated in places by monolithic provision of pre 1919 terraced
housing—market decline is evident in increasing vacancies,
high RSL ownership and private landlord activity: local neighbourhood
markets are sustained by an overwhelming local population."
13. Sefton MBC appointed consultants in
April 2001 and, using the CURS indicators, identified seven areas
of pre 1919 terraced housing. Sefton Appendix to NH Prospectus
2003 showed overall dwelling vacancy levels was 7.6%. Long term
voids were 4.1% LA stock and 3.3% in RSL stock. of 3.3%. However
"low demand" extended to 60% private dwellings, 18.5%
LA dwellings and 54.6% in the RSL dwellings.
14. Whilst PF house price analyses remains
focused on comparisons to and differentials with external Regional/
National indices (NAO /table 14-15 page 22-23/GONW August 2004),
house price inflation within Sefton is significant and is sustained
so far. Sefton MBC Housing Needs Surveys 2003 & 2005 clearly
demonstrated the impact on affordability and increasing need for
"affordable housing" ie social rented housing.
15. The HNS April 2003 for Sefton MBC including
HMRI area, at p. 62 showed 38.9% of households in existing need
and 49.6% of newly arising need, were unable to afford to buy
or rent in the market. P. 64 showed a shortfall of 986 pa social
rented housing units in the middle and north of the borough (from
Waterloo to Southport), with a surplus in Bootle HMRI area of
120 units pa and a surplus of 244 units pa in the pre/post WWW2
suburban estates to the east of the borough. The overall net need
of 622 pa social rented housing units.
16. By HNS August 2005 minimum house prices
in Bootle had increased by 118%, compared with 68% across the
rest of the Borough. Affordable housing needs had doubled to 1,261
pa for the whole Borough because of price rises and also because
of the decrease in availability of social rented housing stock
taken out of letting by RSL's in HMRI programme (HSSA shows a
net loss of 844 SRH units from April 2002 to April 2004).
17. The HNS 2005 survey at p. 23 (Affordability
& Tenure) showed households unable to afford market housing:
24.5% of all Sefton households, 84% of all SRH households, 73%
of all private rented sector households and also 11.3% of all
households with a mortgage. The figures for Bootle HMRI shows
39% of all households, 82% of SRH households, 76.7% of PRS households
& 7.9% of all households with a mortgage were unable to afford
market housing.
18. The Sefton MBC HNS 2005 used the ODPM
March 2005 draft guidance on mortgage affordability test of 3.5/2.9
(single/dual income respectively) to assess affordability of access
to market housing. NHF/Home Truths/ November 2007 shows that the
Sefton ratio in 2006 is now 10.
19. A core outcome in the Sefton MBC Appendix
to the NH Prospectus 2003 approved ODPM February 2004, was to
restructure the tenure profile of the 22,090 properties in the
HMRI area from 47% owner occupation, 16% private rented sector,
37% social rented housing, to 70% private dwellings and 30% social
rented. The Scheme Update 2005 (schedules A & E), confirmed
this tenure restructuring by a net increase of 18,117 (30%) in
private sector dwellings and by a net reduction of 767 (9.4%)
in social rented sector for the whole life programme.
20. The Regional/National tenure profile
is claimed to be 70:20:10. Sefton MBC's tenure profile at 2005
was 76:15.7:7.9 ie An oversupply of OO, an undersupply of SRH.
The SRH stock of 37% in the HMRI area contributes 45% of boroughs
total SRH stock comprising the 15.7% tenure of SRH. Reducing that
SRH to 30% in the HMRI area will have a substantial impact on
the overall supply of SRH in the borough. There are, of course
off HMRI plan developments.
21. Sefton MBC/Interim Planning Guidance
Committee Report May 2007, acknowledges that the amount of affordable
housing in the HNS 2005 survey cannot be met as the 1,261 units
pa exceeds the annual average of new dwellings permitted by RPG13.
This is a function of the housing restraint policy and it is to
focus development in urban priority areas and to aid the HMRI
implementation.
22. Sefton MBC/Interim Planning Guidance
June 2007 at Appendix 2, "the key issues in South Sefton
are not so much to do with low demand and the abandonment of the
existing housing stock . . . but . . . an unbalanced housing market
with a very low proportion of owner occupied properties and a
very high proportion of social rented properties compared with
the rest of Sefton and regional and national averages."
APPENDIX 1
SOCIAL RENTED HOUSING STOCK & WAITING
LIST IN NEWHEARTLANDS LOCAL AUTHORITIES
| | |
|
| SOCIAL RENTED HOUSING STOCK
| | |
| | |
|
| Local Authority Area | 2001
| 2006 | % Difference
|
| | |
|
| Liverpool | |
| |
| Social Rented | 32,259
| 43,799 | 36% |
| Local Authority | 35,859
| 17,379 | -52% |
| Total | 68,118 | 61,178
| -10% |
| Sefton | |
| |
| Social Rented | 6,866 |
7,466 | 8.7% |
| Local Authority | 15,087
| 11,472 | -24% |
| Total | 21,953 | 18,938
| -14% |
Wirral
| |
| |
| Social Rented | 8,150 |
22,476 | 176% |
| Local Authority | 16,237
| 0 | 0% |
| Total | 24,387 | 22,476
| -8% |
| Total | 114,528 | 102,592
| -10.4% |
| HOUSING WAITING LIST
| | | |
| Liverpool | 4,696 | 12,924
| 175% |
| Sefton | 4,605 | 12,694
| 176% |
| Wirral | 7,861 | 13,252
| 69% |
| Total | 17,162 | 38,870
| 126% |
19 November 2007
|
