Memorandum from Mott MacDonald Ltd (FT
29)
AIR FREIGHT
IN THE
SOUTH-EAST
"Air freight in the South-East is forecast
to grow from 2.2 million tonnes a year in 2003 to 14 million tonnes
by 2030. Has the Department adequately planned for the capacity
and access implications of this very significant growth? How will
transport networks need to adjust to serve the growing air freight
market?"
1. The growth figures stated, ie from 2.2
million tonnes a year in 2003 to 14 million tonnes by 2030 at
South East airports implies an average annual growth rate (AAGR)
of 7.1%.
2. According to UK Civil Aviation Authority
statistics the amount of air freight handled at South East airports
in 2003 was actually 1.72 million tonnes.[33]
The total air freight handled at all UK airports in 2003 was 2.2
million tonnes.
3. In 2006 the amount of air freight handled
at South East airports was 1.74 million tonnes, an overall increase
of 1.6% versus 2003. The average annual growth rate between 2003
and 2006 at South East airports was 0.5%.
4. The average annual growth rate of air
freight handled at all UK airports between 2003 and 2006 was 1.6%.
5. Over the same period the UK economy,
measured by GDP, grew by 2.8% in 2003, by 3.3% in 2004, by 1.8%
in 2005 and by 2.8% in 2006.
6. The latest GDP growth forecasts for the
UK are 2.8% in 2007; 2.2% in 2008; 2.4% in 2009, 2.5% in 2010
and 2.5% in 2011. Based on the GDP multipliers achieved between
2003 and 2006 it is difficult to envisage annual growth rates
of 7.1% in UK air freight traffic.
7. The average annual growth rate of UK
air freight from 2006 to 2030 is more likely to average around
2% per annum rather than 7.1%. Assuming an average annual growth
rate of 2% results in UK airports handling around 4 million tonnes
of air freight in 2030.
8. London and South East airports share
of UK air freight traffic in 2006 was 75%. This share will probably
reduce to around 65% by 2030. This means that London and South
East airports would be handling around 2.6 million tonnes of air
freight in 2030, compared with 1.6 million tonnes in 2006.
9. Heathrow Airport is by far the most important
airport in terms of air freight throughput in the South East and
in the UK. Heathrow achieved a market share of air freight handled
at all UK airports in 2003 of 55.2% and in 2006 of 54.3%.
10. Airports in the Midlands region were
the fastest growing in the UK between 2003 and 2006, with an AAGR
of 6.7%. Nottingham East Midlands airport (NEMA) is the largest
and most influential airport within the Midlands region.
11. The reason why Heathrow's market share
is reducing and NEMA's has been increasing is because some "integrators"[34]
have substantial operations there. Integrators are companies that
offer both air and ground transportation services to customers.
12. Those UK Airports with significant air
express operations are growing more quickly than airports handling
general air cargo traffic.
13. It is our opinion that the Government
should produce a new UK air cargo[35]
forecast by market segment. We would suggest that the market segments
to be used for the forecast are as follows:
— Air express traffic carried on all-cargo
aircraft.
— General air freight carried on all-cargo
aircraft.
— General and air express traffic carried
in the lower holds of passenger aircraft.
— Domestic air mail traffic.
— International air mail traffic.
14. In order to "facilitate the continued
development of a competitive and efficient (air) freight sector
. . ." the Government must carefully consider the needs of
each of the market segments included in the air cargo traffic
forecast.
15. The air express segment of the air freight
market is likely to continue as the main demand driver in the
UK air freight market through to 2030.
16. Air express operators require an airport
location that provides direct and immediate access to the motorway
network, guaranteed 24 hour operations at their operating base
airports, the ability to operate without environmental constraints
and the availability of land to expand their operations.
17. The Government should determine the
future capacity of NEMA to handle the forecast increase of air
cargo traffic and, specifically, whether there is a requirement
for a dedicated air cargo airport, close to the M25, the M1 and
M6 corridors. A number of former military airfields might be considered,
particularly those that offer locational advantages and the operational
capabilities currently in place at NEMA.
18. Virtually all air freight and air mail
traffic is delivered to and from airports by road. This will most
likely continue to be the case through to 2030. Motorways offer
the best form of access to and from airports for air freight and
air mail consignments.
19. It is unlikely that rail freight will
have anything but a minor role to play in the distribution of
air freight and air mail traffic to and from UK airports, particularly
given the highly time sensitive nature of air express shipments.
20. We do not foresee the need to adjust
transport networks to serve the growth of the UK air cargo market,
apart from the need to improve motorway exit and entry points
closest to airports that handle significant air express traffic.
21. The key challenge for the Government
will to be to ensure that sufficient capacity and optimum operating
conditions are provided at airports throughout the UK to facilitate
operations by air express operators using all-cargo aircraft.
October 2007
33 South East airports are defined as Heathrow, Gatwick,
Stansted, Luton, Southend, Bournemouth, Cambridge, Kent International
and Norwich. Back
34
Typically DHL, Fed Ex Express, TNT Airways and UPS. Back
35
Cargo = air freight + air mail. Back
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