Conclusions and recommendations
1. this
Report presents our final consideration of the work of the Office
for National Statistics and its effectiveness in counting the
population, except insofar as they relate to our scrutiny of economic
indicators. (Paragraph 7)
2. We recognise that
in a period of significant population change and individual mobility
meeting the requirements of users has become more complex for
the Statistics Authority. The amount of population turnover, both
nationally and locally has made it increasingly difficult for
the current methods of counting the population to estimate the
numbers of people in an area and on what basis they are there.
(Paragraph 48)
3. It is accepted
that population estimates are central to every national system
of official statistics. They are used in statistical formulae
that allocate vast sums of public money to the devolved administrations,
to local government, the health service and public services. It
is therefore a matter of social responsibility to ensure that
population statistics are calculated accurately. (Paragraph 53)
4. The provision of
accurate information about how many people are present within
the country and where they are located is essential to effective
policy-making and the effective delivery of services. Society
is becoming more mobile and the information held electronically
about events, persons and services by government agencies and
other bodies has substantially increased. We require the Statistics
Authority in response to this Report to set out the steps it will
take to utilise and better link data held by the Government and
by local government in order to provide a more accurate picture
of the population within this country. (Paragraph 62)
5. The International
Passenger Survey was designed to provide data primarily for tourism
and business travel purposes. It is now called upon to play a
central role in estimating international migration. It is clear
from the evidence we have received that the Survey is not fit
for this new purpose. We recommend that the Statistics Authority
replace the International Passenger Survey with a new Survey that
is more comprehensive and more suited to the accurate measurement
of international movements affecting the size of the resident
population of the United Kingdom. (Paragraph 67)
6. Based on the evidence
we have received, it is evident that there are substantial problems
in generating accurate population estimates in some Local Authority
areas. The current methods of estimating internal migration are
unsatisfactory and lead to decisions on the allocation of funding
to Local Authorities being based on inadequate information. The
Statistics Authority should establish as an immediate priority
the provision of local population statistics that more accurately
reflects the full range of information available about local populations
and the effects of internal migration. (Paragraph 71)
7. Official mid-year
population estimates, based on the 'usually resident' definition
of population, do not include short-term migrants. Such estimates
do not fully meet the needs of Local Authorities and commercial
users who are also interested in, for example, short-term migrants
as well as day-time and week-day populations. We recommend that
the Statistics Authority investigate the feasibility of producing
population estimates based on different measures of population,
such as estimates which include short-term migrants and estimates
which include the day-time population of Local Authorities. (Paragraph
83)
8. We are seriously
concerned about the reliability and validity of ONS estimates
of short-term international migrants. Evidence from administrative
data sources such as the National Insurance Number register suggests
the ONS estimates do not reflect the scale of short-term migration
in England and Wales. We recommend that the Statistics Authority
examine the feasibility of producing estimates of short-term migration
at sub-national level, using the successor to the International
Passenger Survey that we recommended earlier and a greater range
of administrative data. (Paragraph 84)
9. We further recommend
that the Statistics Authority continue the ONS's work with Local
Authorities and carries out a series of case studies to identify
alternative administrative data sources. These include the National
Insurance Number register, GP lists, other health service lists,
council tax records, and various registers on children and school
children. Although we recognise that different areas have different
problems associated with counting the population and administrative
registers, we recommend that the Statistics Authority produce
a best practice guide. (Paragraph 85)
10. The evidence we
received highlighted the importance of funding a fourth page for
the Census. Following our inquiry it was announced the extra £25
million need to finance this page would be provided through cross-government
funding and we welcome this development. (Paragraph 89)
11. We note that the
Government has failed to make any progress in establishing an
address register for the 2011 Census. We heard repeated references
to the necessity of establishing the register yet were surprised
to hear that no business case had been published. We recommend
that such a case is prepared engaging all potential beneficiaries.
It is unclear whether leadership weakness, lack of legislative
means or the financial obligations of the trading fund status
have contributed most to the failure. We recommend that the Government
consult the Statistics Authority and others to remove any outstanding
obstacles to the production of an address register. (Paragraph
95)
12. We remain concerned
that the personal information gathered through the 2011 Census
could be subject to the United States Patriot Act and therefore
we ask the Government to take clear legal advice and advice from
the US State Department and to publish it in response to this
Report. (Paragraph 106)
13. The
highly developed statistical systems within the Nordic Countries
provide important examples for the UK statistical system. The
development of computerised administrative records in the UK has
moved on rapidly in recent years and that development looks set
to continue. The Department for Work and Pensions already has
an extremely powerful register of personal information. The Statistics
and Registration Service Act has established a framework for conditions
under which such information could be used for statistical purposes.
We recommend that the Government work with the Statistics Authority
to ensure that strong ethical safeguards are put in place to protect
the personal information held by government departments. We further
recommend that the Statistics Authority set out in response to
this Report the action that the Authority will take under the
powers in the Statistics and Registration Service Act to develop
the Government's administrative databases to provide a more accurate
and cost effective method of monitoring the population.
(Paragraph 139)
14. We
recommend that the Statistics Authority establish a pilot project
enabling a population register to be operated alongside the 2011
Census in order to compare the effectiveness of such a system
with that of the Census. (Paragraph
140)
15. NHS
registers provide useful but limited data on population movements.
We recommend that the Statistics Authority liaise with the Department
of Health on the project to replace the current National Health
Service Central Register to ensure that opportunities offered
by a new system for improvements in the contribution of such data
to population statistics are not lost. (Paragraph
145)
16. We recommend that
the Statistics Authority set strategic objectives to ensure that
the data gathered throughout the UK can be used to produce annual
population statistics that are of a quality that will enable the
2011 Census to be the last census in the UK where the population
is counted through the collection of census forms. (Paragraph
149)
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