Select Committee on Treasury Written Evidence

Supplementary memorandum from HM Treasury

  This memorandum responds to the Sub-Committee's request at the evidence session on 23 January 2008.


  The latest population statistics available at the time of CSR 2007 were the Government Actuary's Department's 2004 based population projections.

  These statistics were presented and put in the context of the wider challenges facing the UK economy in the document "long-term opportunities and challenges for the UK: analysis for the 2007 comprehensive spending review", published in November 2006. The document (paragraphs 3.8-3.11) explains that the principal projection of the overall UK population was 64 million by 2017. The document also noted that this projection was subject to some uncertainty, and that GAD had also produced "high" and "low" variants (which themselves do not represent firm upper and lower bounds) which show the UK population at 66 and 62 million respectively by 2017.

  Where relevant, departments drew on these GAD projections to inform their planning for the CSR period.

  Following CSR2007 the ONS published updated 2006 based population projections.

  The principal 2006 based projection is higher than the 2004 based projection, but for all years is within the range of the 2004 based "high" and "low" variants.
UK population ('000s)
GAD/ONS projection2007 20082009 20102011
2004 base—principal60,821 61,08561,35161,619 61,892
2004 base—"High"61,086 61,49961,92562,363 62,808
2004 base—"Low"60,593 60,73760,87160,998 61,119
2006 base—principal60,973 61,41261,85862,309 62,761

February 2008

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