Examination of Witnesses (Questins 340-359)
ANGELA EAGLE
MP
6 FEBRUARY 2008
Q340 Ms Keeble: There are two issues.
One is the churn factor which I will take as general turnover.
We all know anecdotally what approximately those are and some
of the issues that are produced. The other factor is of course
migration which you have already highlighted. I wonder what you
are doing to encourage the ONS. You have talked about the importance
of it but what are the specific measures to encourage their measurement
of migration?
Angela Eagle: For example, we
are trying to get a handle on short term migrants to see if people
have come in and then gone. We are trying to get a handle on this
by increasing sampling. You could use the general household survey
or some of the other fairly regular surveys and add questions
to those to try to find out how long people have lived in a particular
place, whether they have moved and, if so, where from. There is
a range of questions that are being tested for their statistical
relevance by this work at the moment. Clearly, there is ministerial
buy-in to making these statistics more effective which is why
the interministerial group was announced. The task force is working
to look at how we could get a handle on the churn in a more effective
way. Because you would want a handle faster perhaps than even
the mid-term population estimates, that tends to suggest that
the big quarterly surveys might be a place to do it. I know that
ONS are looking at things like the general household survey to
see whether there are things they can add there that would give
some insight.
Q341 Ms Keeble: You have talked about
the importance of it and given a range of different examples of
what can be done. Because obviously short term migration is probably
the most important single statistic to understand for a whole
variety of measures and it is probably the one that is most sensitive
from the public point of view as well, how are you prioritising
that amongst a range of different things that are being described?
What sort of priority is it being given? When do you expect to
come forward with some results?
Angela Eagle: Some of the issues
that have already been talked about, such as for example measuring
communal establishments in a general household survey rather than
non-communal ones, will give us a handle on some of this as the
new results come in. I certainly would expect the ONS migration
task force group to come up with a range of suggestions on top
of that and put them into effect. Again, you would have to ask
Karen when she thinks that the statistics will begin to be much
more effective in terms of capturing this. It is not a matter
for me particularly to know. I know the work is being done. I
know they are considering how migration statistical collection
can be captured more effectively. Some of the things they have
decided they are already putting into effect. Others that for
example might capture short term migration may take longer. Some
of that is different: questions at the port survey, having a much
larger sample at the port survey for example, thinking about embarkation
controls which is an issue for Liam Byrne. All of these things
are being done and being brought together. I anticipate that we
will get a gradual improvement with some of these issues now and
over time a significant improvement.
Q342 Ms Keeble: There is a big debate,
is there not, about how reliable survey information is? What is
your view on that?
Angela Eagle: I think you should
talk to the statistics experts about it. I do not feel I am qualified.
Q343 Ms Keeble: Presumably Liam is
on this interministerial group, is he?
Angela Eagle: He is.
Q344 Ms Keeble: Is he actively looking
at embarkation as one of the possibilities for tracking migration
for statistical purposes, not just for management of migration
purposes?
Angela Eagle: I know all of those
issues are being considered but obviously reintroducing embarkation
collections, given that we had 90 million visitors to the UK last
year, is not a small logistical exercise.
Q345 Ms Keeble: Westminster Council
said that they could lose up to £18 million in funding because
of counting the population. What action is the government taking
to look at the impact of the demand for counting the population
has on local authority funding?
Angela Eagle: I think John Healey
dealt with that quite well in his statement a couple of days ago
to the House.
Q346 Ms Keeble: I was not here.
Angela Eagle: He announced the
interministerial group on migration statistics. There is this
push to try to get a better handle on the churn, if we want to
call it that. At the same time, even some of the adjustments that
were made previously, after the 2001 Census, did not make huge
differences to local authority allocations because of damping
floors and ceilings, I think the phrase is. You would have to
have a very, very large increase in population for it to have
a significant effect on the money you would be allocated.
Q347 Ms Keeble: In areas such as
my own which are growth areas, factors about population growth
are extremely important because they have a profound impact on
funding allocation.
Angela Eagle: I understand that.
That is why I was so supportive of the work that ONS did with
local authorities to try to get a handle on some of this after
the 2001 Census. My understanding is also that the Local Government
Association are involved in some way with the task force on migration
statistics as an ongoing result of the work that was done to try
to see whether local administrative figures might cast some newer,
more up to date light on what was going on in particular areas.
Q348 Ms Keeble: Michael Scholar when
he came here said that the relocation exercise was one of a number
of issues that would be revisited and did not rule out some changes
to the decision to relocate. What is your view of the relocation
of ONS? Do you see it as something that is going to happen or
do you think it is up for grabs?
Angela Eagle: I do not think it
is up for grabs. Most of the central management of ONS now is
in Newport. The relocation is going well. 100% of all national
statistics and 99% of the rest of them have been done on time,
even through the relocation. The fact is that when independence
happens in April and I hand on the baton to whoever is going to
do this job in the Cabinet Office the ONS becomes a non-ministerial
department. That does not mean that it is completely independent
of all of the financial constraints that other government departments
are put under. It will be expected to achieve the targets that
it signed up for in the spending review 2004 on the Gershon savings.
It will be expected to achieve the figures that it signed up to
for relocation in the Lyons Review up to 2010. It has a budget
that has been set outwith the CSR period, this time a five year
budget, a generous one. Within that budgeting, it can decide to
do what it wishes. It cannot renege on agreements that were made
in 2004 about the spending review and relocation or Gershon efficiency
savings.
Q349 Ms Keeble: If they can achieve
the same financial targets without having to go through the same
relocation exercise in exactly the way it was formulated, would
you be happy to see the decision revisited and some alterations
made within the spending guidelines?
Angela Eagle: If after 2010 the
Board believes that there are strong reasons for locating back
to London, they would have to make the case and demonstrate that
it was value for money. They would have to get the Chief Secretary
of the Treasury's permission to reverse the Lyons relocation.
It is too early to speculate on whether they would be able to
make a case that they wish to do that, or in fact whether they
would want to by 2010.
Q350 Nick Ainger: Professor Rhind
in his evidence to us last month told us that the Statistics Commission
of which he is a member visited parts of Scandinavia and the USA.
He told us, "I think we concluded that the traditional Census,
of which in some ways the British one is the most traditional
of all, now given what has been happening elsewhere, has almost
had its day." Do you agree that the 2011 Census should be
the last British traditional census and we should now move to
the administrative registers which, certainly from the Statistics
Commission point of view, are delivering a far better service
than our traditional census?
Angela Eagle: I am agnostic on
that at the moment. First of all, I would have to see how the
2011 Census goes. I would also look at the development of national
databases such as the NHS one, the administrative databases you
are referring to, and consider whether considerable progress had
or had not been made with the national ID card scheme and the
register that accompanies that. It could be that by then we are
in a situation where that might be the case but I think it is
far too early to judge, at the beginning of 2008, where we will
be then, which is why I think it is important to keep an open
mind on these things and see what happens.
Q351 Nick Ainger: Is not all the
evidence, certainly as we gathered in Sweden, that the system
of administrative registers is far more effective, far more accurate
than what we have in this country? That is perhaps one of the
reasons why we came 27th out of 27 in the trust that we have in
official statistics. The Statistics Commission I do not think
has a particular axe to grind. I think they are being quite objective
in looking at other methods of collecting official statistics
and they are saying that our one is not working any more and that
we should move to a completely different system and that the planning
for that and the action that is needed to develop these administrative
registers needs to be taking place now.
Angela Eagle: That might be their
view. Clearly, the 2011 Census is not going to be cheap.
Q352 Nick Ainger: Half a billion.
Angela Eagle: It will cost us
a lot of money. The information that we gather is, as you are
well aware, extremely valuable to us and it is the basis upon
which a lot of public policy, resource allocation etc., happens
both at national and local government level. It is also the basis
for a lot more research in the social sciences and all of those
things. Before we moved away from the 200 year process of having
a traditional census, I would want to look at the kinds of issues
that I just raised with you to see whether we had robust enough
alternatives that would deliver us data that was as useful as
the data that we get from a traditional census. I think it is
too early to have that view. If the ONS came to us and started
saying that they were of that view and all statisticians came
to us and started saying that they were of that view and they
thought we should be moving this way, we would have to look at
what the cost of that would be and whether it could be done. I
think people in the UK are suspicious of anyone who tries to make
lists. The issue with ID cards is not exactly non-controversial.
It would not be non-controversial to have a national address register
either, I will be bound, but I think we have to see how these
things are evolving before I could have a view. I am agnostic.
I want us to get the information in the best possible way we can
to make the best use of it. If it became clear that there were
other ways of doing it that were not about the census and there
was general agreement about that in the statistical community,
then I might well be persuaded, but I am not at that stage yet.
Q353 Nick Ainger: I understand the
ONS are going to look at this this year.
Angela Eagle: It is quite right
that they should consider and always ask those basic questions,
yes, of course. I would look forward to their views on it with
great interest.
Q354 Nick Ainger: Professor Rhind
also said that he felt there was a lack of a data sharing culture
in British government departments. You are nodding your head at
that.
Angela Eagle: That is certainly
true. That has always been my experience as a Minister and I have
been in four departments now.
Q355 Nick Ainger: What are you going
to do about it?
Angela Eagle: Some of the developments
that are happening with the capacity to have databases, particularly
for example the patient databases in the NHS and some of the databases
that are being developed in other places, might give us a platform
to change these things. If I had a magic wand, I would have waved
it a long time ago.
Q356 Nick Ainger: At the moment you
are agnostic. You will await the outcome of the ONS study on whether
the administrative registers can do a better job than a traditional
census. That is your current position?
Angela Eagle: That is my current
position, yes.
Q357 Nick Ainger: In terms of this
data sharing between government departments and also agencies
of government such as the Ordnance Survey and even the Post Office—I
accept it is not an agency of government but obviously government
still remains a significant player in the Post Office—I
cannot remember who it was but one of our witnesses told us that
heads need to be banged together. Do you not think it is your
role to become a head banger, as it were?
Angela Eagle: They were pretty
well banged together in the attempt to get some agreement in this
that happened a few years ago. I think there are some issues of
intellectual property rights and value. It may be that the way
of solving that is to look at the issue of intellectual property
rights in these capacities more generally. I certainly know that
the Treasury are looking at that. I do not want to spend my time
in fruitless effort. I would rather put my effort into doing something
that I think will work. There was an announcement in 2006 that
this was not going forward in its current form and a view that
perhaps the national identity card process would give us what
we wanted. I think it is probably too early to revisit that.
Q358 Peter Viggers: Following my
earlier line of questions, I must say I remain unclear. The ONS
does a careful and conscientious job in producing numbers?
Angela Eagle: Yes.
Q359 Peter Viggers: But, because
of migration and other reasons, it is known that those figures
are not completely accurate. The Treasury works with the ONS trying
to help the ONS refine its numbers but, at the end of the day,
you did use the word "revisions" and you said that the
Treasury applies revisions to the ONS numbers.
Angela Eagle: No. If you have
the impression that we revise the ONS numbers, that is not what
we do. We would never do that. The ONS figures are the figures
we work from. I think I used the term "revision" in
answer to Mr Brady about what we might do with public spending
plans.
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