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11 Feb 2009 : Column 474WH—continued
The exact effect of such measures is open to debate. We piloted advance voting in local elections in England in 2000 and then again in 2002, 2006 and 2007 in a total of 26 pilots. Their aim was to determine whether advance voting increases turnout and convenience for voters.
Local authorities ran awareness campaigns highlighting the availability of advance voting and information was made available on polling cards, inserts in election packs, billboard advertising, local newspaper advertising and interviews on local radio stations. As much as possible was done to publicise the innovation.
According to research conducted by local authorities, it appeared that the majority of the electors who voted early could or would have voted on the normal election day if the advance voting option had not been available. In the pilots that followed, the effect on turnout was limited. In 2007, advance voting as a percentage of turnout amounted, for example, to just 0.5 per cent. in Gateshead and 0.7 per cent. in Sheffield. Only in Broxbourne was there a substantial take-up of advance voting, and even there the proportion was just 7 per cent.
Since 2002 the Electoral Commission has evaluated pilots to determine whether they are successful and made recommendations for the future. It has concluded that although advance voting does make the process of voting more convenient for some, it does not seem to have had a significant impact on turnout. The aim of the 2007 pilots was to facilitate voting among those who usually did not participate, targeting so-called opportunistic voters. However, the Electoral Commission has reported that there was relatively little success in achieving that aim. Feedback from election staff and evidence from local surveys suggests that the majority—around 74 per cent.—of users of advance voting would have voted in any case. Across the five pilot areas, turnout at the May 2007 elections was more or less consistent with turnout in previous comparable elections.
In 2007, we specifically wanted to test whether repeat access to advance voting in successive elections would lead to greater awareness among electors and greater uptake. That is obviously a consideration that we would have to take into account, because the cumulative effect could have been greater than a one-off pilot had suggested. Three local authorities that had previously trialled advance voting—Broxbourne, Gateshead and Sunderland—did so again in May 2007. Significantly, and disappointingly from the Government’s point of view and, I am sure, that of my hon. Friend repeat piloting of advance voting in the same local authority did not seem to lead to a higher uptake.
The difficulty in measuring the impact that advance voting might have on turnout is that other factors are not taken into account, which is one reason why we should not dismiss the idea out of hand. I am certainly not going to dismiss it today. We do not know the impact of important local issues, which is difficult to measure, or what the impact of a national political issue would be, and it is hard to disentangle voters’ motivations. Polling surveys and surveys of the sort that we conduct, although methodologically sound in their own terms, sometimes produce different answers according to the exact nature of the questions asked, as all politicians know.
Methodologically, this is a complicated area, but we have done our best to produce robust answers. Although the answers are disappointing for supporters of advance voting because they do not necessarily suggest that it has an impact, in this country at least, we are not dismissing the idea—I assure my hon. Friend of that. In
everything that we do, we have to be extremely vigilant and not rule out anything that may increase levels of participation.
Mr. Pelling: Does the Minister accept that one of the complications in analysing whether early voting has successfully increased participation is that local authorities have sometimes chosen fairly obscure locations to trial it? I recall that, in the 2000 experiment, my local authority chose an unused part of the town hall as a venue, which might be one of the reasons why turnout did not significantly improve. Is the Minister saying that the Government’s mind will still be open to the idea of pilots of early voting at the next general election?
Mr. Wills: I accept the first point that the hon. Gentleman makes: there are always local factors, especially in local elections, where turnout is particularly low. We accept absolutely that there are methodological problems in that, and that is why, in answer to his second question, we have an open mind. I am not committing to that at all, as there would be considerable problems in so doing.
We are taking a breath on further pilots for the time being, but we will publish our electoral strategy by the summer, which will set out a vision of how we want electoral policy to develop for the next 10 years or more and for at least two Parliaments. At the heart of that policy will be the overriding imperative for elections to be not only legitimate, but perceived to be so. Central to that legitimacy are precisely the concerns that my hon. Friend has voiced in this debate about participation and making voting accessible to every voter who wants to vote, targeting dedicated, routine and habitual voters and also opportunistic voters who will perhaps only vote if it is convenient.
With that quest in mind, in June 2008 the Ministry of Justice launched a consultation on whether turnout would be likely to increase if elections were moved from the traditional polling day of Thursday to one or both days of the weekend. My hon. Friend rightly drew attention to the conservative—with a lower case “c”—habits of election policy in this country. We have got into the habit of holding elections on Thursdays for no obvious reasons other than tradition. We also asked people what they thought about other forms of voting, including advance voting.
We have not yet completed our analysis of the responses, as we received nearly 1,000, but we will publish the report soon. I would like to share some of the findings today because they are informative. The consultation asked whether greater access to advance voting in polling stations should be made available alongside weekend voting. Although the question referred to advance voting in conjunction with weekend voting, the vast majority of respondents chose to address the issue on its own merits. Unfortunately, the results suggest that there is not a huge demand for advance voting.
Obviously, the consultation is not a statistically representative reflection of the views of the public as a whole—the views expressed were those of people with a particular interest, and the sample was self-selecting—but it is valuable evidence none the less and we should not ignore it. In all, 240 respondents gave their views on advance voting. Overall, 31 per cent. were in favour, because they felt that it would provide increased accessibility
and voter convenience, but a quarter of those were not strongly in favour. They argued that it should be introduced only on a limited basis and only if it proved to have a significant impact on turnout.
There was some support for making advance polling available at centrally located polling stations rather than at all of them—that relates to the points made by both hon. Members who have spoken. Some respondents suggested making advance voting available in non-traditional but well attended places such as train stations, town centres, supermarkets and shopping centres. However, about 60 per cent. overall were opposed. Many local authorities and electoral administrators noted that it would be likely to add significantly to the cost and complexity of running elections, as the cost of staff, premises and security would almost certainly increase depending on how many polling stations were open in advance of polling day and for how long. One would expect the local authorities responsible for funding to be deeply concerned about that, particularly at the moment.
Nearly a third of those opposed noted that it was already possible for those unable or unwilling to attend a polling station on election day to vote by post. However, that does not deal with the fundamental point that I made earlier about the importance for many people and for our democracy that one should be able to affirm one’s vote in public in a polling booth. There are also security issues.
In considering any move towards advance voting, we would also need to consider the impact on the election timetable and party political election campaigning. If polling stations were open in advance, it would bring a profound change—maybe a welcome one—to the way that political parties approach election campaigning. They are used to doing things leading up to the key polling date on Thursday, so there would be problems for them too.
One potential electoral innovation that attracted support among respondents to the consultation was remote electronic voting. We have conducted trials in which it appeared to have a positive impact on turnout, although there were other issues from which we must learn lessons. Remote e-voting clearly has potential advantages. For example, we must make an extra effort, perhaps now more than ever, to ensure that our armed forces serving overseas can vote, and people with disabilities could certainly benefit from it.
However, there are issues of security and of public confidence in elections. Although we are increasingly becoming an online nation, many people are still uncomfortable with online operations, and we do not want a significant section of our electorate to be suspicious of the means of voting. One great advantage of voting in a polling station is that it is physical and can be seen, so it inherently still commands more confidence.
The Government recognise that we must ensure that our electoral processes put the elector at the heart of the system. I will publish a strategy and vision that will include our view on how best we can do so. Fundamentally, though, as my hon. Friend rightly said, the electoral system must be beyond partisan dispute, and all measures need to be developed on the basis of cross-party consensus. I believe that that consensus exists on these issues. I do not believe that the matter is a party one at all; I agree completely with her.
Although the evidence does not support my hon. Friend’s proposition at the moment, we remain open-minded. I am delighted that she has engaged so vigorously with it. In the context, I can assure her of a wider electoral strategy. We will continue to explore whether advance voting should be part of that. In the shorter term, I understand that she and I have a date in the diary for about two weeks from now, when we can discuss these important issues further.
5.14 pm
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