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Mr. Timms: The clause is part of our package of targeted support for business—temporary tax relief providing real support for businesses investing for the future. The cost is substantial, as the hon. Gentleman said, and its scale reflects our recognition that business investment is key to recovery. The measure will stimulate and bring forward business investment. It is time-limited because we recognise the exceptional nature of the current downturn and want to support and encourage businesses to invest now. My right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer said in his Budget speech that we must grow rather than cut our way out of recession, and this measure is one building block we have in place to do that.
The hon. Member for Fareham queried the balance between the cost of the carry-back measure that we debated a few minutes ago and this first-year capital allowances measure. The balance reflects the importance of encouraging investment at this point in the downturn to move us into recovery as quickly as possible. At this critical time, it is absolutely right to support businesses and their cash flow, including through the loss carry-back measure, but it is perhaps more important to provide an incentive to invest, which this measure will do.
Mr. Stuart: All the outside experts tell us that it takes time, as my hon. Friend said, to plan capital investment. There seems to be no rationale for doubling the relief in this financial year rather than the one following, when it would have a far more positive effect. Cynics outside view it as having more to do with the electoral cycle than the business cycle.
Mr. Timms: Opposition Members may have slightly misunderstood what the Chancellor of the Exchequer said about the scale. The figure he used was £50 billion, not £60 billion: that is the amount of investment that will qualify for support from the allowances. I certainly do not wish to give the Committee the impression that there will be an additional £50 billion or £60 billion of investment. That will not be the case. However, I expect some increase because many businesses are likely to have some flexibility regarding the timing of their investment and will be able to bring it forward, compared with what they otherwise would have done.
Mr. Hoban: If the Financial Secretary looks back at the Budget speech, he will see a clear implicit message that the provisions would lead to additional investment of £50 billion. The right hon. Gentleman is absolutely right to say that I misquoted the number; it is £50 billion, which includes £10 billion of communications expenditure. The expenditure would have taken place and was already planned. There might be a slight increase at the margin, but it is simply already planned benefiting expenditure. The measure will not generate additional investment to bring us out of the downturn quicker.
Mr. Timms: It will bring forward more investment than would otherwise have been the case, but only a modest share of the total investment, which is the £50 billion figure to which the hon. Gentleman and the Chancellor of the Exchequer referred.
Mr. Hoban: How much additional investment does the right hon. Gentleman think it will bring forward?
Mr. Timms: My estimate is that it will be in the order of an additional couple of billion.
Mr. Hoban: So a couple of billion in additional investment for a cost of £1.6 billion in additional tax relief—is that good value for money?
Mr. Timms: Yes, it is, because the cost will be recovered in future years due to the way that first-year allowances work. We are bringing forward investment and the cost will be defrayed in future years. Winning that additional investment at this time, given what is happening in the economy, is a very worth while prize, which is why we are taking it forward.
Mr. Mark Field (Cities of London and Westminster) (Con): My hon. Friend the Member for Fareham has very transparently expressed Opposition Members’ concerns. Can the Minister give us any other example in which a multiplier effect, which he thinks will emerge in the years to come, can be bought only by an up-front cost of as much as 80 per cent. of the first year’s expense? It seems almost incredible, from our perspective, that to invest, as he puts it, £1.6 billion now for the hope of getting £2 billion in year one is a satisfactory use of allowances.
Mr. Timms: I think it certainly is. As I said, much or perhaps all of the cost in the first year will be recovered in future years. The device enables us to achieve significant additional investment at this critical time, thereby speeding the recovery and the point at which the economy returns to growth. That is a valuable prize. That is the reason why clause 24 introduces the temporary 40 per cent. first-year capital allowances for most business investment between April 2009 and March 2010, in effect doubling the main rate of capital allowance for new business investment over that period. That is in addition to the significant benefit that the vast majority of businesses already receive from the £50,000 annual investment allowance introduced last year. The AIA provides about 95 per cent. of UK businesses with 100 per cent. tax relief against investment in qualifying plant and machinery.
The temporary first-year allowance will provide additional support to those businesses that invest the most and will encourage firms to bring forward investment. I have certainly spoken to businesses that think they can bring forward investment as a result. It will both improve cash flow in the short term, supporting businesses that invest, and encourage investment now by reducing the cost of investment in the current year relative to later years.
Mr. Stuart: The Minister is probably about to come on to this, but may I press him on the £10 billion from investment in the communications industry? Where did that number come from, and will he explain whether he expects any of the additional brought-forward expenditure to be in that particular area?
Mr. Timms: The figure comes from an assessment of what is going on in the communications sector. Much is happening in that sector, and one development that we are keen to see is the development of next-generation broadband services—a roll-out of broadband into those parts of the UK where services are not provided. If those investments take place in the current year, there will certainly be benefits, but communications is quite a wide sector and one in which, I am pleased to say, an encouraging level of investment is going on now. If one looks at the historical pattern, one sees that about 20 per cent. of investment has been coming from the communications sector. That is the view that is reflected in the figure to which the hon. Gentleman refers.
The measure provides real help to businesses investing for the future at a time when they are most in need of support. I put it to the Committee that supporting business investment now is a very important step in ensuring economic recovery and I commend the clause to the Committee.
Mr. Hoban: I am disappointed by the Financial Secretary’s justification for the measure. The whole thrust of the Chancellor’s Budget statement when making the case for the measure was the increase in investment. We can look at the Red Book. The Minister said that he thought that the measure would bring forward additional investment of about £2 billion this year. That is about 1 per cent. of the total fixed investment projected in the Red Book for 2009 and it accounts for an increase in GDP of about 0.1 per cent., so we are seeing a relatively small benefit for quite a significant hit to the taxpayer. Given that the Government forecast borrowing to be £175 billion this year and £173 billion next year, they need to be careful about their rationale for a making big increase in the relief available to companies. If the Chancellor had said at the time of the Budget that the measure was not about bringing additional investment but more about supporting businesses, it would have been a much more straightforward explanation of the increase than suggesting that it would bring forward a huge wave of additional investment.
My right hon. and learned Friend the Member for Rushcliffe was right when he said during the Budget debate that
“Doubling capital allowances for a year, however, is not likely to shift a lot, as it normally takes people more than 12 months to plan investments that they were not previously planning to make. Furthermore, at a time of falling consumer demand people will not be falling over themselves to go in for capital investment, regardless of allowances.”—[Official Report, 27 April 2009; Vol. 491, c. 612.]
That encapsulates the situation. When making the case for a significant increase in tax reliefs, we need to be much clearer about the benefits rather than suggesting that it would bring forward huge additional investment.
Mr. Stuart: Through my hon. Friend, I thank the Minister for being straightforward and honest, as he always is, in sharing the Government’s view. It is a shame that the Chancellor was not as straightforward in his Budget speech. Given the news of recent days, there may be a vacancy, and I hope that the Financial Secretary will be promoted to fill it.
Mr. Hoban: The Financial Secretary is always transparent on these occasions, and gives a good account of why the changes are necessary.
Mr. Jeremy Browne (Taunton) (LD): I wish to bring the conversation back to the matter in hand. I take the point about what the right hon. and learned Member for Rushcliffe said, but to be fair to the Government, one could envisage a company that intends to invest at some point in future—such investment already being programmed into its thinking—choosing to bring it forward slightly because of the extra inducements. It may not necessarily choose to make an investment that it had no plans to make, but if it had chosen to invest, it could decide to do so a little sooner.
Mr. Hoban: Indeed; the Financial Secretary made that point. However, the “little bit” sooner is not the £50 billion that the Chancellor implied; it is £2 billion. That is 1 per cent. of the gross capital formation expected for this year. The amount being brought forward at the margin is very marginal, but it is being done at a cost of £1.6 billion. It seems quite a large amount of tax relief to give for the relatively small return of bringing forward that additional investment.
The intention may have been to give further support to business to invest during a downturn in the knowledge that it would not trigger additional investment but was there simply to cushion the cost. That would be a different explanation. That is the one that the Financial Secretary has given this afternoon. I understand it, and I am content with it. It is a much clearer and more robust rationale than the one given by the Chancellor at the time of the Budget, when the measure was announced.
Question put and agreed to.
Clause 24 accordingly ordered to stand part of the Bill.

Clause 25

Agreements to forgo tax reliefs
Mr. Hoban: I beg to move amendment 38, in clause 25, page 15, leave out lines 37 to 38 and insert
‘the Treasury may by regulations make provision for and in connection with the application of all relevant enactments as follows.
(1A) The Treasury may make regulations to—
(a) give effect to the agreement referred to in subsection (1), and
(b) give effect to subsection (3).
(1B) Regulations under this section may include provision having effect in relation to any time before they are made even if the provision creates or increases the liability to tax of P or such other person as is referred to in subsection (3).
(1C) Regulations under this section may include—
(a) provision amending any relevant enactment, and
(b) consequential, supplementary and transitional provisions.
(1D) Regulations under this section are to be made by statutory instrument subject to annulment in pursuance of a resolution of the House of Commons.’.
The Chairman: With this it will be convenient to discuss amendment 39, in clause 25, page 16, leave out lines 14 to 16.
Mr. Hoban: With your leave, Mr. Atkinson, and that of the Committee, I hope that we might be able to discuss the amendments and clause stand part at the same time. It would make life easier.
To call clause 25 a tidying up measure may not be to use quite the right phrase, but it stems from the agreement reached between the Government and Royal Bank of Scotland earlier this year. In a statement of 26 February, the Chancellor said of RBS that
“It has also agreed for a number of years not to claim certain UK tax losses and allowances, meaning that when they do return to profitability it will not be able to benefit from the losses accrued in the intervening period.”—[Official Report, 26 February 2009; Vol. 488, c. 369.]
It is worth remembering the scale of Government support for RBS through the asset protection scheme, which was announced on 26 February. RBS intends to protect £325 billion of eligible assets; it will bear the first £42.2 billion of loss and then 10 per cent. of the balance, with the taxpayer bearing 90 per cent.
5.30 pm
The Chancellor’s statement in February was not particularly detailed about the areas covered, so I thought that I might chance my arm by tabling a parliamentary question to ask what would happen to losses incurred in 2008 and whether they would they be available for offset against the tax paid by RBS in previous years. The response was:
“RBS have agreed not to claim certain UK tax losses and allowances for a number of years, meaning that when they do return to profitability, they will not be able to benefit from the losses accrued in the intervening period.”—[Official Report, 13 March 2009; Vol. 489, c. 810W.]
That is effectively a repeat of the Chancellor’s words in February, and not a very clear answer to what I thought was a relatively simple question.
The clause does not help us to work out when the agreement that RBS and the Government have reached kicks in. Which losses are covered by the agreement? Is it only losses on those assets covered by the asset protection scheme? Is it losses on that element of the asset protection scheme that the Government guarantee? Is it on the £42 billion? Is it on the 10 per cent.? What happens if RBS writes off debts outside the APS pool? Will those losses be available for offset against future profits? Are they covered by the agreement? The situation is not clear. An agreement has been reached between the Government and RBS on the losses, but there is no transparency for the House or other taxpayers regarding which losses have been forgone by RBS.
It is equally unclear whether it is just RBS that is subject to the agreement or whether Lloyds has also agreed to forgo losses. The taxpayer might say, “I get some value from the break-up of RBS because I know it will pay more corporation tax in the future, but Lloyds appears still able to take advantage of the losses on assets guaranteed by the asset protection scheme without having given up those losses.” Will the Minister provide some clarity on the losses that are covered by the scheme, and on whether Lloyds bank is in or out of the agreement?
The technical problem that I have with the clause, which gives rise to my amendments, is that it is not clear what parliamentary process will be gone through when agreements are reached between the Government and P—the company that receives the guarantees is referred to as P. How will those agreements be scrutinised in Parliament? Subsections (1) and (3)(b) refer to
“such modifications as are necessary or expedient”
being made. That takes us back to the Henry VIII powers in the Banking Act 2009. I want to know what parliamentary scrutiny will be in place to ensure that the agreements are monitored. That is why amendment 38 sets out that there should be a regulation-making power in the clause, which would enable this House to have proper scrutiny of the arrangements.
Stewart Hosie (Dundee, East) (SNP): I broadly support the amendment, but there are some concerns. Regarding Lloyds versus RBS, one used some of the tax assets and one did not. They also have different other terms and attachment points regarding asset protection, which would have to be established in advance in terms of regulation. Is there not a very real danger that that information could be highly market-sensitive, if unrelieved tax assets were abused or there was cash that would weaken the balance sheets? Where does the balance lie between market sensitivity and the transparency that the hon. Gentleman seeks in his amendment?
 
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