House of Commons - Defence Committee

Russia: a new confrontation? - Defence Committee Contents

Memorandum from the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament

SUMMARY

1. This submission considers the current and future relationship between Russia and NATO within the terms of reference set out by the committee. It highlights CND's concerns that the installation of US Missile Defence facilities in the UK, the proposed US Missile Defence facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic, and the proposed expansion of NATO into former Soviet republics have negative security implications both for the UK and Europe.

2. The submission highlights the Russian belief that US Missile Defence is designed to target Russian nuclear forces. Russia's response has been to threaten the targeting of missiles on European bases supporting the US Missile Defence system. CND believes that UK support for US Missile Defence installations increases the threat of military conflict involving the UK, including the increased risk of attack on UK territory. It notes that US policy in pursuing US Missile Defence installations through bilateral treaties has caused political divisions between European states and has increased tension amongst the US, Europe and Russia. Indications of the strength of opposition within public opinion in the UK and across Europe are included.

3. The submission also regrets the manner in which UK involvement in US Missile Defence has been conducted by the government. Decisions, particularly over the inclusion of the RAF Menwith Hill base, have not allowed for proper scrutiny, as the Foreign Affairs Committee has also concluded.

4. The submission further notes Russian concern at the expansion of NATO, the proposed future expansion of NATO and the installation of US military bases in central Asia, which CND believes, along with the US Missile Defence proposals, increase the risk of a new cold war between the US and Russia. CND also believes that the UK is implicated in these developments as an ally of the US in NATO. The submission further argues that future expansion, particularly the announced commitment to NATO Membership Action Plans for Ukraine and Georgia, should be abandoned.

5. In addition, the submission notes the positive statements by President Obama in support of nuclear disarmament and reconsidering US Missile Defence, and believes that the UK government should also take the opportunity to reconsider UK support for US Missile Defence.

US Missile Defence

6. CND opposes the US's missile defence system, considering it to be a provocative initiative, which has been destabilising international relations and contributing to an increase in global tension. We oppose UK participation in the system and urge the UK government to withdraw its facilities and support. CND believes the system is part of the United States' military strategy to achieve "full spectrum dominance"—full military control of land, sea, air, space and information. Whilst the US describes it as a defensive system, because it allows the US to shoot down incoming missiles, in reality it will also enable the US to attack other countries without fear of retaliation.

7. The threat of US Missile Defence to Russia was outlined in a well-known article in the Foreign Affairs journal entitled "The Rise of US Nuclear Primacy". Authors Daryl Press and Karl Lieber argued "the sort of missile defenses that the United States might plausibly deploy would be valuable primarily in an offensive context, not a defensive one—as an adjunct to a U.S. first-strike capability, not as a standalone shield. If the United States launched a nuclear attack against Russia (or China), the targeted country would be left with a tiny surviving arsenal—if any at all. At that point, even a relatively modest or inefficient missile-defense system might well be enough to protect against any retaliatory strikes, because the devastated enemy would have so few warheads and decoys left."[12]

8. Russian concerns were raised further when, during the 33rd G8 summit in Germany in June 2007, Russian president Vladimir Putin offered to jointly host elements of the US missile defence system at the Gabala Radar Station in Azerbaijan. In response, the US stated it did not believe the Gabala radar was capable of substituting for facilities in Czech Republic[13] and Stephen Mull, acting Assistant Secretary Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs stated "we do not accept that Gabala is a substitute for the plans that we're already pursuing with our Czech and Polish allies."[14]

9. By allowing bases such as Menwith Hill and Fylingdales to be crucial components of the system the UK is inextricably linked into the US military agenda and is on the front line in any future US war. A potential aggressor could seek to destroy MD facilities in Europe in the context of an imminent war with the US. In December 2007, Russian General Nikolai Solovtsov said "I do not exclude the missile-defence shield sites in Poland and the Czech Republic being chosen as targets for some of our intercontinental ballistic missiles."[15] CND believes the UK sites involved in US Missile Defence would be equally at risk, as they are equally integral to the functioning of the system.

10. CND is particularly concerned that US pursuit of US Missile Defence is causing a breakdown in the international security architecture. Not only did President Bush abandon the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in order to pursue US Missile Defence, but Russia has now suspended the 1990 Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty.

11. The proposed installation of US Missile Defence bases in eastern Europe has resulted in widespread opposition both from politicians and from the general public. On 15 November 2008, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said, "I have suggested that in mid-2009 we could meet within a framework to lay the foundations of what could possibly be a future pan-European security system. This would bring together the Russians, the Americans and the Europeans. Between now and then, please, no more talk of missile deployment or antimissile deployment." [16]On 19 March 2007 the then leader of the Social Democrats in Germany, Kurt Beck, said that "We don't need new missiles in Europe. The SPD does not want a new arms race between the USA and Russia on European soil. Europe must speak with one voice on this." [17]On 27 March four senior members of the Socialist Group in the European Parliament Dutch MEP Jan Marinus Wiersma, Austrian MEP Hannes Swoboda, Czech MEP Libor Roucek and Polish MEP Marek Siwiec, wrote to then Democrat Speaker of the US Congress Nancy Pelosi, warning that the missile defence system might "spark a new arms race."

12. A recent statement by former German politicians, Helmut Schmidt, Richard von Weizsäcker, Egon Bahr and Hans-Dietrich Genscher called for the restoration of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and asserted that "outer space may only be used for peaceful purposes."[18]

13. Across Europe, public opposition is significant. A Harris Interactive poll for the International Herald Tribune and France 24 published on 28 March 2008 showed 71% of people in Germany, 61% of people in Spain, 58% of people in France opposed US Missile Defence installations in eastern Europe. In Italy 49% of people opposed the system with 35% in support, whilst in Britain 44% of people opposed the system and only 30% supported it.

14. In the Czech Republic, a poll conducted between 1 and 8 December 2008 showed 65% of the public continued to oppose the system and 70% believed the decision should be subject to a national referendum.[19]

15. Czech opposition is impacting on support for political parties. The leading party of the government coalition, the Civic Democrats, has now been behind the leading opposition party, the Social Democrats—which opposes the radar, in public opinion polls for over 12 months. In the October 2008 elections for one-third of the seats in the Senate (upper house of parliament), the Social Democrats won 23 of the 27 seats up for election, a gain of ten, whilst the Civic Democrats lost six and were reduced to winning only one of those in that election. The election was remarked upon by the Chair of the House of Commons European Scrutiny Committee, Michael Connarty MP, when he told the Commons "The reason that the Social Democratic party won, we were told, was simple: it opposed missile defence and the strategy of putting a radar system on Czech soil."

16. In Britain, opposition to UK involvement in US Missile Defence remains a majority. A YouGov poll for CND published on 27 October 2008 asked whether individuals agreed with the statement, "The siting of US missiles and early warning bases in Europe, as part of the US National Missile Defence programme, is increasing international tension between the US and Russia and, as a result, increases the threat to UK and European security." Of those polled, 61% agreed and 17% disagreed. In addition, the same opinion poll showed that 68% of those polled agreed that "The UK's support for and involvement in the US National Missile Defence programme, including the siting of US radar and communications bases in Yorkshire, should be decided by the UK Parliament." Only 16% disagreed.[20]

17. In support of the demand for a greater role for Parliament, the Foreign Affairs Committee criticised the lack of consultation with Parliament by the Government on UK involvement in the system. The Committee stated, "We regret the manner and timing of the Government's announcement that RAF Menwith Hill is to participate in the US ballistic missile defence (BMD) system, and the resulting lack of Parliamentary debate on the issue. In its response to this Report, we recommend that the Government inform us of the date on which it received the formal proposal from the US to include Menwith Hill in the BMD system. We recommend that there should be a full Parliamentary debate on these proposals."[21]

18. In addition, Early Day Motion 65, Parliament and Decisions over US Missile Defence, in the 2007-08 parliamentary session, was supported by 112 Members.[22]

NATO

19. CND supports British withdrawal from NATO and the closure of all foreign military bases on British soil. It further calls for the withdrawal of all US military bases and nuclear weapons from Europe and no nuclear or other expansion of NATO. CND supports the extension of the influence, resources and funding of the Organisation for Security and Co-Operation on Europe (OSCE).

20. CND is in particular opposed to NATO's first use policy for nuclear weapons, the effect this has on UK policy and the impact this has on the strategic considerations of other nuclear forces. CND believes the UK does not have an independent defence policy as it is circumscribed by its membership of NATO. When asked, in 2002, about ruling out the use of UK nuclear weapons on a "first use basis", Geoff Hoon, the then Secretary of State for Defence, replied, "A policy of no first use of nuclear weapons would be incompatible with our and NATO's doctrine of deterrence, nor would it further disarmament objectives."[23]

21. The previous US administration under President George W. Bush appeared intent on escalating tensions with Russia, not only through its pursuit of US Missile Defence installations in eastern Europe but through establishing a ring of its own US—and also of NATO—military bases around Russia's borders. The commitment to pursuing the expansion of NATO membership eastwards and the increase in out-of-area operations was viewed with considerable concern by Russia. On 3 June 2007 the then President Vladimir Putin stated "It is clear that if a part of the US nuclear capability turns up in Europe, and, in the opinion of our military specialists will threaten us, then we are forced to take corresponding steps in response. What will those steps be? Naturally, we will have to have new targets in Europe."[24]

22. CND regrets the decision of the Foreign Secretary David Miliband to use the conflict in South Ossetia, in an interview with The Guardian on 20 August 2008, to reassert UK commitment to Georgian membership of NATO when he said "The structures of cooperation, first of all through the NATO-Georgia Commission, are properly geared towards eventual [NATO] membership."[25]

23. CND agreed with the statement of the Government Chief Whip, Nick Brown MP, when he said "If western hawks really are advocating Nato membership for every small country that borders the Russian Federation, even a government far more charitably disposed towards Nato than the present Russian one is going to see the move as a direct challenge."[26]

24. CND believes the decision of the April 2008 NATO Summit not to offer Membership Action Plans to Ukraine and Georgia was welcome but regrets the decision of the December 2008 NATO-Georgia Commission and NATO-Ukraine Commission Foreign Ministers meetings to reinforce the NATO Liaison Office in Tbilisi[27] and Kyiv.[28]

25. CND further believes that the Foreign Ministers' meeting to agree that an "Annual National Programme will be developed to advance Georgia's reforms, which will be annually reviewed by NATO Allies" constitutes a further step towards Georgian and Ukrainian membership, despite the communique stating the plan was "without prejudice to further decisions which must be taken about MAP."[29]

CONCLUSION

26. CND is encouraged by the improving relations between US and Russia following the inauguration of the Obama presidency.

27. In particular, the report in The Times newspaper that President Obama will convene nuclear arms reduction negotiations with Russia, with a stated aim of cutting each state's warhead arsenal to 1000,[30] is a significant commitment to de-escalating tensions between the two states.

28. In addition there has been a marked change in attitude to the US Missile Defence system since the election of President Obama. His support for the project is qualified by the demand that it be "cost-effective" and should not "divert resources away from other national security priorities."[31] Michele Flournoy, Obama's nominee to become undersecretary for policy at the Pentagon, has said the plans will be reviewed as part of this year's Quadrennial Defense Review.[32]

29. In response to the announcement of including US Missile Defence in the Quadrennial Defense Review, Russia subsequently made the significant announcement that it would suspend the installation of Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad,[33] which it had proposed as a response to the development of US Missile Defence bases in Poland and the Czech Republic.

30. In the context of the new US presidency, there is cause for cautious optimism that relations between the US and Russia will improve, and that positive steps may be taken together on a whole range of key issues of international concern. It is clear that President Obama understands the significance of improved relations with Russia and is working to resolve the tensions that currently exist. His initiatives so far have elicited a positive Russian response and it is to be hoped that this continues. It is incumbent on our own government to work towards the same goals, for this will contribute significantly to increased security, both for Britain and the world. In this light, CND urges the government to review UK participation in US Missile Defence and oppose the siting of facilities in central Europe, to oppose NATO expansion, and to give President Obama constructive support and encouragement towards these ends in the sensitive and difficult negotiations that will no doubt lie ahead.

13 February 2009

12 Daryl Press and Karl Lieber, "The Rise of US Nuclear Primacy", Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060301faessay85204-p0/keir-a-lieber-daryl-g-press/the-rise-of-u-s-nuclear-primacy.html Back

13 Federation of American Scientists, CRS Report for Congress, November 2008, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33453.pdf Back

14 http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Russia_Gives_Up_Ukraine_Missile_Radars_US_Says_Azerbaijan_No_Substitute_For_Poland_999.html Back

15 The Telegraph, 19 December 2007, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1573008/Russia-threatens-to-target-US-missile-shield.html Back

16 The Times, 15 November 2008, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article5158567.ece Back

17 The Telegraph, 19 March 2007, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1546032/Germany-warns-US-on-missile-shield-plan.html Back

18 International Herald Tribune, 9 January 2009, http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/09/opinion/edschmidt.php?page=1 Back

19 http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/32719/czech_adamant_on_missile_shield_referendum Back

20 http://www.cnduk.org/images/stories/resources/missiledefence/usmdopinionpoll271008.pdf Back

21 Foreign Affairs Committee, Global Security: Russia, published November 2007 http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200708/cmselect/cmfaff/51/5110.htm£a31 Back

22 EDM 65, Parliament and Decisions over US Missile Defence, session 2007-08, http://edmi.parliament.uk/EDMi/EDMDetails.aspx?EDMID=34155&SESSION=891 Back