Memorandum 116
Supplementary submission from UCAS (Universities
Central Council on Admissions)
STATEMENT FOR IUSS SELECT COMMITTEE
CONFIRMATION AND
CLEARING 2009
The number of applicants for 2009 entry in the
main undergraduate scheme operated by UCAS, ie that for full-time,
undergraduate students, stood at 567,840 on 8 June compared with
519,902 at the same point for the 2008 entry cycle. This represents
an increase of 9.3% across the UK; for England only the figures
are 522,550/477,324 respectively and an increase of 9.5%.
This constitutes a significant increase in applications,
and growth which is very much higher than the year on year trends
evidenced over the last ten years. This needs to be considered
against a backdrop of an effective cap on further growth of student
intake numbers for England imposed by government via HEFCE.
HEFCE has informed us that, in practice, for 2009
additional student numbers in respect of full-time, under-graduate,
programmes translate into the number of last year's intake (around
419,000), plus an additional 3,000 places (ie an increase of less
than 1% compared to the intake for 2008 entry). These figures
suggest that there will be a projected reduction in places available
during Clearing for 2009 entry (<18,000 places compared with
c 44,000 last year) of >25,000. UCAS has been monitoring the
situation carefully and has determined that although there is
some evidence of management of the position by HEIs in that the
rate of offer-making has only increased by around 5.5%, applicants
are accepting offers at a similar rate to that evidenced for 2008
entry. Offers are not, in general, markedly higher than those
made last year.
In addition to the above, a new procedure, initiated
by the Delivery Partnership Steering Group, and named the "Adjustment
Period", has been introduced for Confirmation and Clearing
2009. This provides applicants who meet and exceed the conditions
of their firm choice to have the opportunity to reconsider their
choice and make a fresh application based on their higher level
of achievement. In consulting about this change the Delivery Partnership
determined that less than 1,000 applicants would be eligible to
use this new service; however, analysis by UCAS suggests that,
while in theory, this figure could be as high as around 50,000
a figure of 4,000 is more likely based on those who, last cycle,
declined unconditional offers and entered Clearing. Of course,
it is impossible to predict with any complete certainty the behaviour
of a different group of students encountering a new procedure.
All the above suggests a rather more uncertain
situation for Confirmation and Clearing 2009 in comparison with
recent years. There are likely to be disappointed applicants who
are unable to find a place in Clearing, and any space for allowing
for Adjustment may be even more narrow than the somewhat cautious
view adopted at the beginning of the cycle.
In the light of these uncertainties UCAS has
taken measures to strengthen its technical and operational infrastructure
and is working with its member institutions to ensure the provision
of comprehensive information.
June 2009
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