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Supplementary memorandum submitted by Desertec (LCT 42A) The potential of renewables There is no question that renewables can meet the · A network of land-based 2.5-megawatt (MW) turbines restricted to nonforested, ice-free, nonurban areas operating at as little as 20% of their rated capacity could supply more than 40 times current worldwide consumption of electricity and more than 5 times total global use of energy in all forms. There is additional potential in offshore wind farms. See Global potential for wind-generated electricity (Xi Lua, Michael B. McElroya, and Juha Kiviluomac, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, June 22, 2009, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0904101106, http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/06/19/0904101106.full.pdf+html). · The
"economically competitive potential" of wind power in · Renewable sources of power can provide 100 percent of the world's energy (not just electricity) and it is technically feasible to make the transition by 2030. See "A path to sustainable energy by 2030", an article by Mark Z. Jacobson and Mark A. Delucchi in the November 2009 issue of Scientific American, and Review of solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy security (Mark Z. Jacobson, Energy & Environmental Science, 2009, 2, 148-173). See also the interactive presentation about this research: Powering a green planet: sustainable energy, made interactive (Scientific American, November 2009). These articles review research showing that there are more than enough renewable sources of power to meet all of the world's energy needs, not just electricity. In the scenario described in the Scientific American article, wind supplies 51 percent of the demand worldwide, provided by 3.8 million large wind turbines (each rated at five megawatts). Although that quantity may sound enormous, it is interesting to note that the world manufactures 73 million cars and light trucks every year. An interesting conclusion of this research is that, because there would be much less wastage of energy in a renewables scenario, total world demand for power in 2030 would be 11.5 terawatts, using renewables, compared with 16.9 terawatts if we were to stick with conventional sources of energy. · The variability
of sources such as wind power is much less of an issue than is sometimes
suggested, as described in Managing
Variability (Greenpeace, WWF, RSPB, Friends of the Earth, July 2009, http://www.trec-uk.org.uk/reports/milborrow_managing_variability_final_July_2009.pdf).
Fluctuations in wind strength can be managed technically and at modest and
declining cost, high proportions of wind power are feasible in the · Photovoltaics
(PV) could generate about 266 TWh in the · Using
concentrating solar power (CSP), less than 1% of the world's deserts could
produce as much electricity as the world is using. Less than 5% of the world's
deserts could produce electricity equivalent to the world's total energy
demand. These calculations, which are quite conservative, are based on
research from the German Aerospace Centre (DLR). Although it would be possible
to obtain all the world's energy from deserts, there are several reasons why
Europe and the · The
government's own plans for the growth in renewables and energy conservation can
ensure adequate generating capacity in the · There are several other reports on how to decarbonise the world's economies via renewables and the conservation of energy, without using nuclear power. A more comprehensive list, with notes and download links, is on http://www.mng.org.uk/gh/scenarios.htm. Future developments Electrification
of road and rail transport in the · In terms of energy, about 50% more electricity would be needed (see Appendix 8 of "Energy UK" (http://www.mng.org.uk/gh/resources/energy_UK3.pdf). The reason it is not more is that electric motors are very much more efficient than internal combustion engines. Much of the energy that we are using now for overland transport is simply wasted. · In practice, the additional amount of generating capacity that will be required is likely to be less than 50%. This is for two reasons: o It is likely that much of the charging of electric vehicles will be done at night when there is likely to be a lot of spare capacity from sources such as wind power. To that extent, it does not add to the generating capacity that would be required. o The electrification of road transport will facilitate the introduction of grid-to-vehicle technologies allowing two-way flows of electricity between vehicles that are on charge and the transmission grid. This will help to keep demands for electricity in balance with supplies, thus helping to minimise the amount of spare capacity that is required. It seems likely that, in the future, there will be increasing use of electrically-driven heat pumps to provide space heating in buildings. But, with good insulation of buildings and the use of technologies such as inter-seasonal heat transfer (see, for example, http://www.howedell.herts.sch.uk/eco_issues/sustainable_elements.pdf), residual needs for the heating of buildings should be small. Energy costs In weighing up the pros and cons of various sources of power, there is a need to take account of the fact that energy markets are distorted: · In a report published in 2004 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3818995.stm) the New Economics Foundation made a conservative estimate that worldwide subsidies for fossil fuels amounted to about $235bn a year-and there seems not to have been much change since then. · The continued existence of subsidies for oil, gas and coal is confirmed by recent reports that the G20 countries intend to remove them (see, for example, http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE58O3RN20090925). · Contrary to what is sometimes suggested, nuclear power is heavily subsidised. The subsidies are described in a report from the Energy Fair group that may be downloaded via a link from http://www.nonukes.org.uk/home. · There is still no global cap on emissions of CO2 and schemes such as the EU ETS are not working properly. For those kinds of reasons, the price of CO2 emissions is far too low. Removal of these distortions would transform our perception of what is or is not 'economic'. It is likely that most renewable sources of electricity would be seen to be cheaper than electricity from fossil fuels or nuclear power.Removal of these distortions would mean that we could begin to wind down the 'arms race' of subsidies (see http://www.nonukes.org.uk/reducing-subsidies).
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