Examination of Witnesses (Question Numbers
54-59)
MR MIGUEL
PALOMARES AND
MR EIVIND
S GAGSLID
28 OCTOBER 2008
Q54 Chairman: Good morning. Thank you
very much for coming in. As you know, this is our second session
on this current inquiry on shipping. We are very interested to
hear from you as one of the key organisations involved in the
industry. We have received your written comments already. I would
like to start with a fairly general question. One of the studies
that you commissioned projects that, under business-as-usual,
carbon emissions from ships are set to double and possibly to
double again by 2050, so quadrupling by 2050. That is quite a
significant rate of increase over a time period when, as you know,
the global target is for a substantial reduction. What level of
emissions do you think shipping could realistically hope to achieve?
How much could that business-as-usual scenario be reduced?
Mr Palomares: Probably the study
you refer to is an update of an original study that was commissioned
by the IMO and published in 2000. Last year the IMO decided that
this was outdated, for obvious reasons, and an update has and
is being undertaken by a world consortium of research institutions.
We have received Part I of this study, the results, of which indicate
that international shipping emits 843 million tonnes of CO2. This
is a consensus estimate, representing about 2.7% of the global
total anthropogenic CO2 emissions. If left unregulated, this level
might increase by a factor of 1.1 to 1.3% by 2020 and 2.4 to 3.0%
by 2050. This is, of course, if left unregulated.
Q55 Chairman: Even the lower end
of that 2050 figure is almost a tripling of where we are today.
Mr Palomares: No, 1.3%. That would
be 30% more.
Q56 Chairman: Yes, but by 2050 you
are talking about 2.4 to 3.0%.
Mr Palomares: Almost tripling,
yes.
Q57 Chairman: That is over a period
in which more and more countries are committing themselves to
making a substantial reduction. How much do you think could be
realistically achieved by the shipping industry over that period?
How much below that business-as-usual forecast?
Mr Palomares: We know that by
introducing the regulations that are being developed at the moment
in the IMO, there are some studies that indicate a reduction per
tonne mile of up to 70% by 2050. This would entail regulations
for ship design and construction and there would also be operational
measures. We can talk about those, if you wish. Of course there
is another component, which is the market-based measures, which
are being considered somewhat separately from the technical and
operational measures. It would be, I think, irresponsible of me
to venture a total level of reduction from the industry because
this is very much dependent on how world trade will be performing
by that time. The growth in shipping correlates very well with
GDP in the world and, therefore, if world trade continues growing
there will be a demand on more shipping and therefore more emissions.
Q58 Joan Walley: First of all, could
I ask you how much importance you give to the forthcoming conference
of the parties to be held in Copenhagen in 2009?
Mr Palomares: We hold that in
the utmost of respect and importance, of course.
Q59 Joan Walley: That is an important
milestone.
Mr Palomares: Yes. We are fully
participating in all the meetings of the subsidiary bodies to
the United Nations Convention on Climate Change, keeping them
updated on what the IMO is doing and what decisions are being
made at committee level. We intend to participate in the forthcoming
14th conference in Poznan in Poland. The idea will be that after
the Marine Environment Protection Committee of the IMO in July
of next year, completes a framework of regulations and recommendations
on how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from shipping, this
will be presented to the Copenhagen Conference by the Secretary
General of the IMO as a position paper.
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