Memorandum submitted by Dr Howard Lee
(SFS 18)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In my view the current UK system is not robust.
It is heavily dependent upon fertilisers derived from fossil fuel
inputs that are at risk and is also likely to be adversely impacted
by predicted Climate Change. This means that it will not be able
to respond to increasing demands from the global market and it
will also be at risk of not being able to satisfy the domestic
market.
I have summarised the main reasons that lead
me to this conclusion and have also suggested some strategies
to mitigate against food insecurity. Defra, or possibly a new
Government Department for Food Security, need to have contingency
planning in place to cope with the demand to meet a higher percentage
of our domestic consumption and the risk of interrupted food supplies.
This will require out-of-the-box thinking, since it is quite likely
that fine-tuning existing systems of production will not be enough
to face the challenges ahead. It is recommended that these ideas
need urgent investigation and critical appraisal if the Government
is to ensure that all scenarios are covered and the food security
of the UK maximised during the 21st Century and beyond.
An important key step will be to undertake research
to determine what practical solutions can be introduced. For example
alternative farming methods or the growth of urban food production
backed by community support. Appendix A provides further details
and summarises research projects that would inform this planning.
1. How robust is the current UK food system?
What are its main strengths and weaknesses?
The current UK food system is extremely insecure
and the following weaknesses are important:
1.1. Domestic food production is largely
based upon fossil fuel inputs, which are likely to become increasingly
unavailable. Global demand for oil and natural gas is already
close to exceeding that of supply[63]
and current price fluctuations are due to a combination of factors
stemming from economic instability caused at least partly by fear
of fossil fuel shortages. Thus, security of supplies of fossil-based
mineral fertilisers and synthetic pesticides are likely to be
compromised. Modern crop cultivars have been bred to produce only
if supported by these inputs and thus severe yield penalties are
likely if these inputs are compromised, especially for herbicides
and other specific pesticides. Diesel shortages will also affect
machinery use on farms, where reliance on fossil motive power
is almost universal.
1.2 Climate change is now understood to
involve increasingly severe Extreme Weather Events (EWEs). British
soils have indicated declining rates of soil organic matter (SOM)
over the past 50 years. SOM is well known to affect soil
properties, improving structural stability, porosity and drainage
potential, encouraging beneficial soil fauna, releasing a steady
rate of macro and micro nutrients and improving water holding
capacity and drought tolerance. The implications of EWEs for many
British soils with low SOM are that crops are increasingly liable
to suffer from drought stress when there is low rainfall and soils
to erode when precipitation is excessive, all of which will further
reduce yields.
1.3 Currently UK agriculture can feed between
two-thirds and three-quarters of the population. It is estimated
that, as the above limitations take effect over the next ten years,
that this level of self sufficiency will drop below 50%.
2. How well placed is the UK to make the most
of its opportunities in responding to the challenge of increasing
global food production by 50% by 2030 and doubling it by
2050, while ensuring that such production is sustainable?
2.1. Due to the above reasons, unfortunately
the UK will not be in a position to contribute to increasing global
food production as detailed between now and 2030, though this
might change subsequently if domestic food production increases
are achieved.
3. In particular, what are the challenges
the UK faces in relation to the following aspects of the supply
side of the food system:
3.1. Soil quality There is a problem
of relatively poor drainage of farmland. This is due to compaction
by larger machinery, poor investment in drainage systems and lower
SOMs as stated above. Thus there is an increasing frequency of
water logging events. This quickly kills most crop species and
also leads to losses of nitrogen from soils as Nitrous Oxide (N20—a
greenhouse gas approximately 200 times more damaging than
carbon dioxide).
3.2. Water availability Less water
will be available on farm land, since compacted soils cannot quickly
absorb and retain sudden rainfall. Water shortages are liable
to affect both rural areas (where more irrigation will be needed
to counteract shortages; 30% increase expected by 2050) and urban
zones as the expectations of citizens continue to increase.
3.3. The marine environment Coastal
inundation will further reduce farmland and have a small but measureable
effect on total production (57% of grade 1 arable land is
below the 5m contour line).
3.4. The science base Research in
agriculture has declined and, more importantly, not investigated
the issues highlighted below. There will need to be an urgent
injection of funds to help us understand and develop a new skills
base.
3.5. The provision of training New
R&D detailed below will need to be rapidly outreached into
the farming sector, with widespread provision of relevant training.
Here at Hadlow we have set up the first degree in Sustainable
Land Management to help address these issues.
3.6. Trade barriers These will tend
to restrict fossil fuel supplies and also compromise our access
to food imports as new agricultural production areas in eastern
Europe decline. Most food exporting nations will be facing similar
problems in agriculture and thus disinclined to export to us.
Basically we will soon be facing a severe deficit of fossil fuel
and imported food supplies.
3.7. The way in which land is farmed
and managed This will not be fit-for-purpose as the above
changes occur. Fundamental shifts in farming and land management
policies will be required.
4. What trends are likely to emerge on the
demand side of the food system in the UK, in terms of consumer
taste and habits, and what will be their main effect? What use
could be made of local food networks?
4.1. Consumer tastes and habits will be
altered, not by free choice but as some foods become prohibitively
expensive. There will be an emphasis upon local meats, vegetables
and fruits—accessibility and price will tend to dictate
eating habits and there will be a return to seasonal food. Local
food networks will be useful in facilitating access to produce
but will need to be developed to incorporate a large expansion
in local production.
5. What role should Defra play both in ensuring
that the strengths of the UK food system are maintained and in
addressing the weaknesses that have been identified? What leadership
and assistance should Defra provide to the food industry?
5.1. Defra needs to accept the impending
problems of food insecurity and explore some novel options:
5.1.1. Defra should have contingency planning
for events such as interrupted food imports or oil and natural
gas supplies cannot be guaranteed. The suggested key priority
will be the development of long term supplies of sufficient energy,
food and water for all UK citizens. This will entail some "out-of-the-box"
thinking and planning. Some suggestions for how UK agriculture
might secure food supplies for the future are listed below. The
needs of citizens for energy and water are also considered en
passant, since all three are interrelated.
5.1.2. Urban food security needs to be considered
as a priority given this is where most UK citizens live. It is
suggested that urban-wide food production plans would be needed
but that the implementation would focus upon self-organised and
motivated local groups of citizens (approximately 500 people
per group) in adjoining housing, who aim for a large measure of
self sufficiency in energy, food and water by means of a sophisticated
integration of:
(i) Organic societal waste streams—processed
via anaerobic digestion (AD) for methane fuel (one commercial
AD unit should provide sufficient methane to generate electricity
for approximately 500 people in 250 houses)—additional
methane for motive power (petrol engines can easily be adapted
to run on methane)—and subsequent composting of digestate
as a fertilizer;
(ii) Communal food production in all available
spaces, subject to soil testing for freedom from contaminants—using
intensive, raised-bed and protected cropping (e.g. polythene tunnel
or equivalent) techniques and also composts as fertilizer from
(i) above;
(iii) Micro livestock, as detailed below;
(iv) Water harvesting from houses and also the
development of micro reservoirs where possible. There are some
associated retro-fit policies needed for housing but those are
outside the scope of this Defra inquiry and so are not detailed
here.
5.1.3. The production detailed above for
urban areas would need to stretch outside each city and town.
The size of this peri-urban zone would depend upon population
size and efficiency of production. In both urban and peri-urban
areas, micro-livestock maintenance would be an integral part of
food production, absorbing organic wastes, being able to live
in relatively small areas and growing relatively quickly. Examples
are pigs and chickens, though others could include goats, rabbits
etc.
5.1.4. Overall, rural agricultural land
in the remainder of the UK and outside urban areas would also
need to be re-assessed. Upland areas would always present relatively
low production potential but need to continue to be managed, albeit
extensively. It is recommended that the management of lower altitude
rural land would need some fundamental changes if its food production
potential was to be maximised:
(i) Previous studies on low-input production
and a wealth of knowledge and experience from organic farming
would need to be re-visited and incorporated as a reference data
base. However, this would not be sufficient—nobody has attempted
to manage a modern mixed farm with machinery but lacking external
fossil inputs and such developments would be mostly novel;
(ii) Existing knowledge indicates that farming
without fossil inputs would depend in part upon maximising the
efficiency of nutrient cycling and this is known to be facilitated
by the presence of livestock (especially cattle and sheep). Thus,
most rural stockless UK farms would need to consider the re-introduction
of livestock;
(iii) As indicated above there would also need
to be a priority to encourage rapid increases in SOM, though re-introducing
livestock will assist this.
5.1.5. The above developments will lead
to new commercial enterprises—it is suggested that trading
would become increasingly localised and potentially vigorous.
Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) would have an important part
to play, both in urban and rural areas. New employment opportunities
would arise, requiring new skill sets.
6. How well does Defra engage with other relevant
departments across Government, and with European and international
bodies, on food policy and the regulatory framework for the food
supply chain? Is there a coherent cross-Government food strategy?
6.1. There is insufficient engagement currently
but the impending food security situation means that Defra can
demonstrate internationally what can be done to address the impending
shortages. This will be an opportunity for us to show others what
can be done. However, the immediate priority is to develop a much
stronger cross-Government food strategy by the formation of a
new Government Department for Food Security.
7. What criteria should Defra use to monitor
how well the UK is doing in responding to the challenge of doubling
global food production by 2050 while ensuring that such production
is sustainable?
7.1. Defra already has some effective sustainability
indicators in place but these need to be channelled into an assessment
of food security in the UK in the face of reduced inputs and EWEs.
8. Appendix A
Suggested policies and actions for a worst case
scenario
8.1 Detailed below is a summary of policies
that may be required if:
— Oil and natural gas imports cannot
be guaranteed and UK agriculture and associated chemical input
industries face an interruption of supply. Longer term interruptions
will also affect the machinery sector but this has not been included
below, though it could be;
— All food imports into the UK are
interrupted;
— This occurs in a climate change scenario
of EWEs of continuing or increasing severity.
8.1.1 What if the above situation occurred?
It is recommended that Government consider such a possibility
and that contingency planning is put in place. The policies suggested
below are summarised as key points, but can be elaborated. The
suggested key priority will be the development of long term supplies
of sufficient energy, food and water for all UK citizens. This
will entail some "out-of-the-box" thinking and planning.
Here below are suggestions for how UK agriculture might secure
food supplies for the future. The needs of citizens for energy
and water are also considered en passant, since all three
are interrelated.
8.1.2 Defra (or a new Department of Food
Security) cannot restrict agricultural policies to rural areas—there
needs to be an integration of rural and urban potential:
8.2 Urban food security
8.2.1 This might not be seen as the remit
of Defra, but a priority focus is needed for urban areas (cities,
towns and villages greater than approximately 10,000 citizens),
since this is where most UK citizens live. It is suggested that
urban-wide food production plans would be needed but that the
implementation would focus upon self-organised and motivated local
groups of citizens (approximately 500 people per group) in
adjoining housing, who aim for a large measure of self sufficiency
in energy, food and water by means of a sophisticated integration
of:
(i) Organic societal waste streams—processed
via anaerobic digestion (AD) for methane fuel (one commercial
AD unit should provide sufficient methane to generate electricity
for approximately 500 people in 250 houses)—additional
methane for motive power (petrol engines can easily be adapted
to run on methane)—and subsequent composting of digestate
as a fertilizer;
(ii) Communal food production in all available
spaces, subject to soil testing for freedom from contaminants—using
intensive, raised-bed and protected cropping (e.g. polythene tunnel
or equivalent) techniques and also composts as fertilizer from
(i) above;
(iii) Micro livestock, as detailed below;
(iv) Water harvesting from houses and also the
development of micro reservoirs where possible. There are some
associated retro-fit policies needed for housing but those are
outside the scope of this Defra inquiry and so are not detailed
here.
8.2.2 The production detailed above for
urban areas would need to stretch outside each city and town.
This peri-urban zone would need to extend out from urban centres,
with the distance depending upon population size and efficiency
of production.
8.2.3 In both urban and peri-urban areas,
micro-livestock maintenance would be an integral part of food
production, absorbing organic wastes, being able to live in relatively
small areas and growing relatively quickly. Examples are pigs
and chickens, though others could include goats, rabbits etc.
8.2.4 Urban and peri urban food production
would need to be planned carefully, depending upon the perish-ability
of produce and distance to consumer. The ideas of geographers
such as von Thünen in early 19th Century pre-industrial Europe
and more recently by Braudel are incomplete but give some guide
for a useful starting point. We would need to revisit these and
other ideas and combine them with more recent thinking—and
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) mapping would be needed to
integrate such concepts in order to develop effective urban land
use maps, utilising transport hubs and local resources on a site-by-site
basis.
8.3 Blending into rural areas
8.3.1 The development of zones of peri-urban
production, in a sophisticated development of von Thünen's
and other's ideas, would tend to blend into rural areas, for example
with the production of perishable items (such as dairy) extending
into urban areas along road, rail, river and canal transport spines.
8.3.2 Overall, rural agricultural land in
the remainder of the UK and outside urban areas would also need
to be re-assessed. Upland areas would always present relatively
low production potential but need to continue to be managed, albeit
extensively. It is recommended that the management of lower altitude
rural land would need some fundamental changes if its food production
potential was to be maximised:
(i) Previous studies on low-input production
and a wealth of knowledge and experience from organic farming
would need to be re-visited and incorporated as a reference data
base. However, this would not be sufficient—nobody has attempted
to manage a modern mixed farm with machinery but lacking external
fossil inputs and such developments would be mostly novel;
(ii) Existing knowledge indicates that farming
without fossil inputs would depend in part upon maximising the
efficiency of nutrient cycling and this is known to be facilitated
by the presence of livestock (especially cattle and sheep). Thus,
most rural stockless UK farms would need to consider the re-introduction
of livestock;
(iii) As indicated above there would also need
to be a priority to encourage rapid increases in SOM, though re-introducing
livestock will assist this.
(i) to (iii) above are just a summary—there
would be much more detail required as part of this management
regime and this could be provided.
8.4 Economic activity
8.4.1 The above developments will lead to
new commercial enterprises—it is suggested that trading
would become increasingly localised and potentially vigorous.
Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) would have an important part
to play, both in urban and rural areas. New employment opportunities
would arise, requiring new skill sets.
8.5 Suggested research
8.5.1 The above worst case scenario policy
suggestions verge on the revolutionary and no Government body
would consider their implementation without careful study. However,
it would be prudent to plan for this scenario and the following
R&D is suggested as a matter of urgency:
8.5.2 Overall investigation
A desktop study is needed to access all existing
information that can be utilised, including low input studies
and experiences from organic production. This would form a vital
base to identify further required research.
8.5.3 Urban investigation
A pilot study is needed of at least one chosen
urban area of 500 citizens in contiguous housing, where the
above policies can be explored and assessed. Budgetary and other
constraints might require a smaller number of participants and
this should be considered if necessary. The important point is
to investigate this option, no matter how small-scale it might
be. The key question will be: what proportion of its requirements
for food, energy and water can be obtained by such a group? The
food production aspects will require some specialist horticultural
knowledge and some participants will need to be offered training,
though mutual sharing of knowledge and support within such a group
is also expected. Group self-help and the dynamics of the development
of social capital will be an important component of this study.
Much would be learnt from such an investigation and many ongoing
improvements achieved—i.e. a greater level of medium and
longer-term self sufficiency might be achieved than had initially
been expected. Clearly, wider transport and organisational issues
cannot be addressed unless an entire urban area is developed,
though desktop modelling could be taken forward.
8.5.4 Rural investigation
At least one and preferably several stockless
farms would need to be developed for this scenario, covering the
major soil types and management scales (i.e. small family farm
to large scale estates). For the rapid introduction of livestock,
"pre-fabricated" livestock housing would need to be
explored, that could be erected quickly. Just as in urban developments,
the main priority on rural farms would be to determine the maximum
sustainable yield of food, energy and water that could be obtained
from such a system. Ideally the farm would need to be developed
as self sufficient in all three and able to export at least useful
and increasing quantities of food as expertise is refined.
8.5.5 Extension and Training
Any new developments would require support both
for farmers and other citizens: free or subsidised training would
be required to help farmers adjust and urban citizens adapt. Additionally,
the development of commerce would require new skills to match
employment opportunities and relevant training would be needed
(including small scale engineering, AD waste management, composting,
horticulture, livestock husbandry etc.). There would be some psychological
barriers to the adoption of these concepts, since there is a natural
reluctance by many towards fundamental change. Counselling and
other personal support would be required in addition to practical
advice.
January 2009
63 It is important to remember that it is not the total
quantity of fossil fuel that matters, but rather what can be obtained
at any given time: thus, promised reserves are of no help unless
they can be accessed quickly and economically. Back
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