Memorandum submitted by Professor John
Beddington, Government's Chief Scientific Advisor (SFS 31)
SUMMARY
The challenge to ensure secure and sustainable
UK food supplies to 2050 is intrinsically linked to a series
of interconnected global issues, including climate change, population
growth and the inexorable rise in global demand for food, energy
and water. UK food security must be considered in that wider context.
Science and technology has contributed greatly in
the past to enhancing food security in the face of substantial
increases in demand, and there is enormous potential for it to
do so in the future. The future challenge is to deliver increased
production with reduced inputs such as water, energy and nutrients,
on limited land, whilst ensuring environmental sustainability
and coping with climate change impacts.
The UK research base can has a major role to play
in meeting this challenge, with a track record of world-class
outputs delivering substantial benefits both to the UK and overseas,
linked to our goals for global food security and poverty reduction.
The Government Office for Science is strongly
engaged on these issues, both to strengthen the evidence base
and understanding of the issues and to sharpen and enhance the
overall coherence of the UK response in the area of research and
innovation.
INTRODUCTION—THE
GLOBAL CONTEXT
1. The challenge to ensure secure and sustainable
food supplies in the UK up to 2050 is one of a series of
closely interconnected issues, impacting strongly at the global
level but with implications for all countries. Most notable amongst
these are climate change and the need to sustainably manage the
world's rapidly growing demand for energy and water, at the same
time as global population is set to soar to around 9 billion
by mid-century and to become more prosperous.
2. In an increasingly globalised world, and one
in which issues such as climate change can only be tackled through
international endeavour, it becomes increasingly difficult to
consider only a UK perspective.
3. These issues are further connected by
their impact on global poverty, most acutely in the developing
world, and on achievement of the Millennium Development Goals.
The FAO has estimated that 854 million people globally are
undernourished, the great majority in developing countries. With
the cost of food and energy soaring in 2007-08 the World
Bank estimated that a further 100 million people risked falling
into extreme poverty. Food and other commodity prices have more
recently declined again as a result of the global economic downturn
and the abatement of some short term factors. However underlying
drivers such as climate change, energy and water demand, and population
growth will impact increasingly on food production and food security
over the long term. They present a significant problem that will
become increasingly acute in the absence of an adequate response
at all levels, from global to local.
4. The recent price shock revealed starkly
how UK food supplies and costs to consumers are strongly impacted
by developments overseas. This includes natural events such as
adverse weather conditions affecting harvests in other regions
(particularly if combined with similar occurrences in the UK),
the policies of other nations developed in response to these,
and other factors such as the growth of biofuels affecting supply
and demand in international markets. After an extended period
of relatively low and stable or declining prices, it provided
a clear warning of the need to avoid complacency in tackling now
the longer term challenges.
5. Total world water demand is projected
to increase by over 30% by 2030, and energy demand by over 45%.
Agriculture is by far the largest user of water, at approaching
70% to total supplies. The agricultural sector will increasingly
need to compete for this with demand from the world's growing
cities.
6. Economic advances projected for the developing
world will help lift millions from poverty, but in other ways
will add to the challenges. As incomes rise to £1-£5 per
day people eat more meat and dairy products, causing a rapid growth
in demand for agricultural commodities to feed livestock. Driven
by population rises and growing prosperity, world food production
will need to increase by some 50% by 2030 to meet this burgeoning
demand.
7. The backdrop against which this must
be met is one of rising global temperatures, impacting on water,
food and ecosystems in all regions, and with extreme weather events
becoming both more severe and more frequent. Rising sea levels
and flooding will hit hardest in the mega-deltas, which are important
for food production, and will impact too on water quality for
many.
8. The need both to mitigate climate change
and to adapt to that which it is too late already to avoid is
clear. It has been suggested that global greenhouse gas emissions
must be reduced by at least 50-60% by 2050 compared to current
levels. The UK's target to reduce emissions by 80% on that timescale
means that all sectors must make a major contribution, achieving
steps changes in past performance.
9. What does this mean for the agri-food
sector? The world must produce 50% more food, on less land, with
less water, using less energy, fertiliser and pesticide—by
2030—at the same time as bringing down sharply the level
of greenhouse gas emissions emitted globally. It is a non-trivial
challenge, but it is one that can be met if the right steps are
taken.
10. I believe we need a new and greener
revolution, a revolution that science and technology can help
deliver both for the UK and internationally.
11. Ultimately, UK food security will link
closely to global food security. A "go it alone" strategy
is unlikely to be either feasible or desirable, although environmental
drivers argue for some further shift towards locally sourcing.
THE CONTRIBUTION
OF SCIENCE
AND TECHNOLOGY
12. Despite Malthusian fears of looming
famine in the first half of the 20th century, the graph below
illustrates how agricultural production was able to climb well
above the rate of population growth in the last four decades.
Global production has more than doubled in the past 40 years,
despite only an 8% increase in the use of land for agriculture
since the 1960s.[2]
Dramatic improvements have been achieved in both developed and
developing countries. Cereal production in China for example increased
from 91 million tonnes in 1961 to 390 million tonnes
by the end of the century, with a similarly impressive increase
from 70 to 186 million tonnes in India.[3]
More recently, Brazil has doubled grain production since 1990 with
very little increase in land area, partly through large-scale
mechanisation.[4]
FAO: World production and population since 1961
13. Much of the success over this period
can be attributed to technological and process innovations, such
as the introduction of chemical pesticides, fertilisers, irrigation
and crop improvement through breeding.
14. In contrast, the absence of such approaches
in Africa has contributed, alongside other factors, to an enduring
stagnation in yields.
15. Significant untapped potential remains
even with current crop varieties to reap the benefits of past
achievements from science and technology. The FAO has estimated
that if half the extra yield considered attainable with current
varieties were realised in 11 major rain-fed wheat producing
countries, world wheat production could be increased by 23%.
16. The benefit of investment in agricultural
research is clear, for example delivering an average internal
rate of return of 43% in 700 R&D projects evaluated in
developing countries.[5]
Yet developing countries invest just a ninth of what industrialised
countries put into agricultural R&D as a share of agricultural
GDP. Another perspective is that agricultural R&D has tripled
in China and India over the past 20 years, but increased
barely 20% in sub-Saharan Africa (declining in about half of the
countries there). This has contributed to the widening yield gap
with the rest of the world, with further key issues relating to
the adoption even of available technologies. It represents both
a major challenge and an opportunity for future UK policy and
research, centred on Government goals to tackle global poverty
and enhance food security and to ensure UK food security in an
increasingly interconnected world of global markets.
17. Despite the demonstrable benefits of
research, the extended period of stable or declining global food
prices in recent years has been one driver for reduced growth
in the levels of investment globally in publicly-funded agricultural
R&D. Private sector research has grown but its commercial
orientation has placed emphasis on cost reduction rather than
yield increases, and in particular there has been less incentive
to address the needs of poorer farmers and to focus on more strategic,
longer term issues.[6]
18. There is a compelling case that the
declining trend in the growth of global public R&D should
be reversed. Studies suggest a strong link between agricultural
productivity improvements in a given year and investments in agricultural
research over the previous 30 years and more.[7]
The UK must frame its own future domestic and international contributions
in this context.
Current and future research challenges
19. There is an enormous contribution that
science and technology can make to help ensure UK and international
food security over the long term.
20. For example, focusing on the UK, one study
suggests a theoretical yield potential of 19.2 t/ha for UK
wheat and 9.2 t/ha for oilseed rape, if future research enables
physiological limits to be achieved. This compares to current
average yields of 7.74 t/ha and 3.2 t/ha respectively,
based on Defra figures. The realistic yields attainable will be
much less, however there are still substantial gains to be made.
Looking ahead to 2025 and 2050, other work suggests realistic
yield potentials of 11.4 t/ha and 13.0t/ha for wheat and
4.1 t/ha and 5.7 t/ha for oilseed rape on these timescales
respectively.
21. Annual UK wheat production since the
1980s has averaged around 14m/t, peaking at 16.7 m/t in 2000.
Achieving the yield potential estimated as realistic, on the same
area of land, would deliver annual production of 23.9 m/t—over
a 70% increase compared to the current average.
22. The wider adoption of existing knowledge,
technologies and best management practices could on its own deliver
significant improvements. For example, extending further the illustration
above, could increase yields to 8.71 t/ha for wheat and 3.88 t/ha
for oilseed rape respectively. It will be important to strengthen
mechanisms for the translation and wider deployment of research
outputs if this potential to be achieved. This is where the "early
wins" are likely to be. However the greatest gains, combining
both productivity and environmental benefits, will come from further
R&D investments. Priority areas for research include e.g.
crop improvement to enhance nutrient and water capture and conversion,
maximising the capture and conversion of light, and improving
natural resilience to pests and diseases. More generally, climate
change adaptation will remain a key research topic, including
climate-water modelling.
23. Crop protection is crucial. Around 30%
of crops are lost even before harvesting due to pests and diseases,
with the figure far higher in some cases, and substantial further
losses are experienced post-harvest. Pesticides play a vital role
in safeguarding yields, a fact that I believe has been insufficiently
recognised elsewhere in Europe as EU regulations covering this
area have recently been updated. The withdrawal of existing pesticides
products without alternatives to replace them, and without demonstrable
benefits to human health or the environment, could result in a
significant reduction in crop yields in the UK and across Europe,
with the potential also to impact beyond Europe's boundaries.
24. New generations of pesticides have increased
in effectiveness, with application rates down to "grams per
hectare" from "kg per hectare" a few decades ago.
This has brought both environmental benefits and efficiency savings.
Supported by UK research, other non-pesticide approaches to crop
protection are also proving effective in set circumstances, and
are particularly valuable in the developing world where access
to and safe use of pesticides has been a problem. For example,
one of the most damaging weeds in Africa is a witchweed, Striga,
responsible for billions of dollars of damage each year. In Kenya,
a "push/pull system" has been trialled successfully,
supported by BBSRC funding. This involves the intercropping of
a fodder crop—Desmodium—that prevents Striga from
germinating, in conjunction with another technique, "trap
cropping", which attracts pests to a crop bordering the main
crop.[8]
25. Genomics has been important in improving
crop varieties for yield, sustainability and quality. Successes
to date have included salt resistant durum wheat and more disease
resistant oil seed cassava. Crop breeding has also focused recently
on the opportunity to enhance the nutritional and health value
of food itself. Following the demonstration that vitamin A can
be produced in rice, breeding programmes have begun to select
crops for improved levels of a range of important micronutrients.[9]
26. Conventional breeding has achieved dramatic
increases in productivity. However, quantum leaps in future may
involve fundamental new approaches to plant science. One possibility,
still at an early research stage, is to re-engineer the photosynthetic
pathway in rice, with consequent potential for greater production
per unit input of solar energy.[10]
Genetic modification techniques, although remaining controversial
in the UK and some other countries, provide new possibilities
for crop improvement and to accelerate the development of solutions.
The Royal Society's current study on biological mechanisms to
enhance food crop production promises to make an importance contribution
in this area, by providing a balanced assessment of the different
biological approaches that could be used to enhance supplies and
their likely consequences and impacts.
27. Technological innovation through the
use of mineral fertilisers has been another key factor since the
1960s in enabling the increases in productivity that have been
achieved. Unless nutrients removed through cultivation are replaced,
from organic or inorganic sources, crop production cannot be sustained.
Other benefits from fertilisers include enabling the potential
of high yielding seeds to be realised where the natural nutrients
in most soils are insufficient and enhancing productivity on nutrient
poor soils.
28. However fertiliser use also presents
environmental challenges, such as through nitrate leaching, and
requires careful management. The key aim is to match nutrient
supply and demand to maximise crop production whilst minimising
loss to the environment. It is a key area where science can contribute.
For example, research by Rothamsted has resulted in farmers applying
very little nitrogen to cereals in autumn or winter, as studies
showed almost all of this to have been wasted. As a consequence,
it is estimated that surplus nitrogen applied to wheat crops is
now less than a third of what it was 20 years ago. Leaching
in nitrogen sensitive areas is estimated to have been reduced
by 20%.
29. Future research priorities include to
further improve understanding of when to apply fertilisers dependent
on factors such as crop variety, climate and soil type.
30. At the forefront of science, nanotechnology
promises new products and approaches to assist crop protection,
as well as having applications in other agricultural areas. For
example, smart sensors and delivery systems may help combat viruses
and other crop pathogens, and new products may help plants' ability
to absorb nutrients. Already today, nanotechnology has delivered
improvements to pesticide delivery through encapsulation and controlled
release methods. Capsules can be inert until contact with leaves
or insect digestive tracts, at which point they release the pesticide.[11]
In combination with the use of nanoemulsions (suspension of nanoparticles),
pesticides can be applied more easily and safely. Smart sensors,
applied to the field, may in future allow early detection of disease
and monitoring of soil conditions to improve application of water,
fertilisers and pesticides.
31. The benefits of agricultural research
illustrated above need to be set in the context of the broader
role science and technology can play in the food supply chain,
from "farm to fork". Improvements in food quality, efficiency
of processing and supply, and reduced losses of food bring major
benefits, including in terms of increased choice, higher quality
and lower costs for consumers.
32. Nanotechnology is already used in packaging
to improve the shelf life of foods by the inclusion of silicate
nanoparticles that prevent oxidation and spoilage. Increased shelf
life for foods subject to rapid spoilage such as fruit and vegetables
could contribute to reducing household waste, and so food demand.
In the UK, roughly a third of the food bought by consumers is
thrown away.[12]
UK RESEARCH BODIES
AND PROGRAMMES
33. The UK is supporting major research
programmes both in the UK and internationally in areas related
to food security. For example:
— The Biotechnology and Biological
and Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) funds fundamental, strategic
and applied research that underpins agriculture and food supply.
Total spend in this area was £185 million in 2007-08.
This included research on the following areas: plant and crop
science (including the control of pests and diseases); soil science;
aquaculture; animal health; animal welfare; food safety; food
manufacturing; diet and health; effects of environmental change
on agricultural systems; and agricultural systems.
— Defra, via its Sustainable Farming and
Food programme, currently invests around £29 million
p.a. in agricultural and food research. This includes for example
supporting Genetic Improvement Networks, which underpin breeding
for crops combining high yields with traits for increased sustainability.
Other research focuses on reducing the effects of agricultural
inputs on air and water quality, and on the industry's resilience
to short term disruptions.
— DFID under its new research strategy
has committed to spend £400 million on agricultural
research from 2008 to 2013 to support research in six
areas: to develop food that is more nutritious with higher yield
crops; to create agricultural jobs for the poor from high-value
crops; to protect farming communities against climate change,
drought, pests and diseases; to better understand how markets
can benefit poor farmers; to achieve the sustainable management
of forests, fisheries and wildlife resources. This support is
channelled to international research organisations (mainly Consultative
Group on International Agricultural Research—CGIAR), regional
research organisations in Africa and Asia, joint research programmes
with BBSRC, and to public-private partnerships and programmes
to get research into use. A key recent achievement was the agreement
reached in December to reform and revitalize CGIAR organisation,
to improve the impact and efficiency of future research.
Strengths and Challenges for UK Science
34. The UK has great strengths in science
and technology related to food, extending across agriculture,
fisheries, animal health, sustainability, food safety, diet and
other areas. We can be proud to host many world class facilities,
such as Rothamsted Research, the John Innes Centre, the Plymouth
Marine Laboratory and the Institute of Food Research.
35. In bioscience, the UK ranks second overall
in the world in terms of research outputs.
36. In climate science and modelling, a
key area linked to our food security goals, UK capability includes
the world-leading Met Office Hadley Centre, as well as the Climate
Impacts Programme providing increasingly refined information and
projections to support adaptation and planning at a regional and
local level.
37. Building on these assets, and combined
with other factors such as a moderate climate and fertile soils,
the UK is well placed to ensure domestic food security over the
long term and to contribute substantially to similar goals at
a global level.
38. Securing this contribution from science
will require a clear recognition of the importance of sustained
investments in research for future benefits, as well as maintaining
and developing the supporting infrastructure for this.
39. Another priority will be to tackle skills
gaps identified in areas such as plant breeding and plant pathology,
agronomy and soil science.
40. As importantly, I believe there is a
need to ensure timely exploitation of research outputs and to
place greater emphasis on applied R&D linked to productivity
as well as environmental goals. Stronger partnerships and dialogue
between the public and private sectors will be required. I will
be exploring these issues further with key stakeholders, as set
out below.
Government Office for Science (GO-Science) contributions
on food security
41. GO-Science is directly leading to a
range of work on food security, both to strengthen the evidence
base and understanding of issues from a UK and global perspective,
and to sharpen the UK response where research, technology and
innovation can contribute. Key current activities are set out
below.
Foresight Food and Farming Project
42. Foresight has recently begun an exciting
project looking at the global future of food and farming, guided
by the question: "How can a future global population of 9 billion
people all be fed healthily and sustainably?" The findings
are due to be launched around October 2010.
43. The project will draw on cutting-edge science
from diverse disciplines to take a long-term (25-50 years)
view of the issues. It will:
— analyse the global food system: including
changing demand, production and supply and broader environmental
impacts;
— identify key drivers of change and
investigate how they could combine to affect the food system across
the world and give rise to wider impacts. This analysis will define
major challenges in the future, and the uncertainties associated
with them; and
— consider how new science, policies
and interventions could best address those future challenges—both
in the UK and internationally.
44. The project will consider food and farming
in oceans and freshwater, as well as on the land.
Foresight UK Land Use Futures Project
45. Foresight is also undertaking a major
study on future land use in the UK, exploring how this could change
over the next 50 years. This includes examining society's
future needs and values towards land use. It will use the latest
evidence and expert opinion across the environmental, economic
and social science disciplines to identify where the greatest
pressures on land could be and to identify practices which encourage
valued and sustainable land use practices. The findings are due
to be launched in January 2010.
46. The project has already highlighted, for
example, the need to build capacity to tackle land use issues
systemically and in a more integrated way, and to place greater
emphasis on the management of key resources such as water. There
is widespread agreement that the demands being made on land are
greater than ever. It is clear that food policy will continue
to influence demands on land use over the long term. Food security
concerns may lead to pressure to increase agricultural production.
Foresight will examine how these demands might be balanced against
others such as the need for additional housing, access rights
and forestry; and how the role of new technologies and management
practices might influence overall patterns.
Optimising Public Sector R&D
47. Following up a key recommendation from
the Cabinet Office Food Matters report, I am leading a
cross-government group to strengthen the coherence and coordination
of food research across the public sector. An important aim of
the group is to promote a more joined-up approach on research,
centred on the Government's vision for safe, healthy and sustainable
food, a thriving UK agri-food sector and UK and global food security.
48. The group will provide a forum where key
cross-government food research and innovation issues and priorities
can be discussed and addressed. It will also facilitate engagement
on these issues with wider stakeholder groups, including research
providers, funders and users. Early work by the group will focus
on developing a high-level food research strategy to facilitate
better cross-government working. Another current priority is to
gain a better understanding of the level and scope of current
research related to food across the public sector.
49. In addition, GO-Science is supporting
discussions involving the Technology Strategy Board, Defra, BBSRC
and others on options for a Technology Strategy Board initiative
in the agri-food area, as a means for improving the development
and exploitation of agricultural and food research in the UK.
This recognises the critical role that the private sector has
to play in the translation of research outputs into practice,
both to meet the Government's food security goals and to reap
the opportunities that exist within a huge UK and global market.
Other activities
50. GO-Science has also commissioned two
important academic studies which it is shortly to publish in advanced
draft form (finalisation being subject to further independent
expert review which may identify additional areas for development).
These have examined respectively: (i) the world food commodity
price events of 2007-8 and the factors driving these, and
(ii) the potential to increase wheat and oilseed rape productivity
in the UK. Analysis from these reports has helped to inform aspects
of this memorandum.
January 2009
2 IPCC AR4 WGIII TS8. Back
3
FAO AGROSTAT, April 2000. Back
4
Embrapa, Brazil. Back
5
World Development Report 2008, IFPRI. Back
6
USDA May 2008. Back
7
Alston et al. 2000. Back
8
Integrated pest management, Hassnali et al, Phil Trans R. Soc
B, Vol 363 no. 1491 p.611-622. Back
9
http://www.harvestplus.org/research.html Back
10
http://www.irri.org/media/press/press.asp?id=137 Back
11
http://www.syngentaprofessionalproducts.com/to/prod/primo/ Back
12
WRAP, The food we waste, http://www.wrap.org.uk/retail/food_waste/research/the_food_we_waste.html Back
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