Memorandum submitted by Warwick HRI (SFS
53)
SECURING FOOD
SUPPLIES UP
TO 2050: THE
CHALLENGES FOR
THE UK.
Warwick HRI is the University of Warwick's Department
of Plant and Environmental sciences; it was rated as the top agricultural
research department for quality in the RAE 2008. It provides expertise
in the optimisation of production, yield and quality of crops.
The emphasis is on utilising genetic and genomic approaches to
establish the developmental and mechanistic basis of key plant
attributes and on understanding processes at the whole plant and
crop system level. Contributors to the document are Prof Brian
Thomas, Plant Science, Prof Dave Pink, Crop Genetics and Breeding,
Dr Rosemary Collier Crop Protection and Dr Sharon Hall, Isafruit
project. Phillip Effingham, Technical and Development Director
of Marshalls, a leading supplier of prepared vegetables, has also
been consulted.
Prof Wyn Grant of the Politics and International
Studies Department at the University of Warwick, has also contributed
to this report. His general area of interest is comparative public
policy with particular reference to the EU and the US.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The UK food system is fairly robust, however
it is sensitive to a range of potential factors. There is a potential
"conflict" between intensifying food production and
environmental benefits. In order to respond to the global food
production challenge UK agriculture needs to be a knowledge-based
industry.
Climate change will affect food production via extreme
weather events both in the UK and elsewhere. A key research priority
should be to optimise the efficiency and sustainability of UK
food production by providing varieties adapted to future growing
conditions, including reduced water availability.
Significant wastage occurs in the food supply
chain both pre- and post-harvest; much of this is driven by aesthetic
quality standards, but significant losses also occur due to pests,
diseases and weeds. New EU legislation will reduce the number
of available pesticides and will threaten our ability to produce
certain crops.
Increased energy prices will have a direct impact
via fuel for farming operations and food distribution and an indirect
impact via the embedded energy of inputs particularly nitrogen
fertilizer. There is significant scope for large-scale automation
but there is a lack of available investment to drive this forward.
The leading UK farmers and growers are innovative,
entrepreneurial, well-educated, keen to engage with researchers
and are ready to exploit new opportunities. However, the UK has
an ageing farming population. There is an insufficient supply
of knowledgeable and skilled labour, with few new entrants to
the UK food industry. In recent years, the "skills gap"
has been filled by migrant workers, however, this cannot be relied
upon in future.
Several areas of expertise are in short supply,
notably agronomy, plant pathology and weed science. Expertise
is often "one-deep". But succession planning is universally
weak or non-existent, because of reduced and uncertain funding.
There is a need for continuity in research funding to maintain
expertise and capability. Recruitment of young career scientists
is a significant challenge. Plant and Crop Sciences are not attractive
to students in comparison with other areas.
Predicting future consumer habits and behaviour
is never easy. However, it is likely that consumer demand for
fresh produce will increase in relation to health aspirations.
Currently, the UK has the largest trade deficit for fruit and
vegetables and there is scope for import substitution.
Government needs to adopt a coordinated strategy
across departments to meet the challenge of increasing global
food production. The role for government will be determined by
a choice between a sustainable food policy or a cheap food policy.
1. How robust is the current UK food system?
What are its main strengths and weaknesses?
1.1 We consider the UK food system is fairly
robust. Currently UK farmers produce approx 60% of all food consumed
within the UK and approx 74% of foods that can be grown in the
UK.[3]
The UK has the largest trade deficit for fruit and vegetables.[4]
Predicted trends in climate change under current UKCIP scenarios
may allow the UK to produce a wider range of crops than we currently
grow but may also reduce the suitability of varieties of current
crops for their current locations. There is therefore a continuing
need for new varieties adapted to changing UK conditions. This
in turn requires research into the underlying genetics of adaptive
traits (e.g. water use efficiency) to provide the knowledge and
tools to breed new varieties.
1.2 Food production is sensitive to extreme weather
events. In the UK, examples from recent years include floods in
2007 and 2008 and hot dry periods in 2003 and 2006.
It is predicted that such episodes will become more frequent.
The food industry has considerable experience in contingency planning
for such events. Producers and retailers often cope with extreme
events by switching to a source from a different region/country,
however, this assumes that an alternative supply is available.
Some extreme weather events that affect the UK also affect other
European countries e.g. heatwaves, while sometimes, different
extreme events occur at the same time in different food production
areas e.g. flooding in Spain and adverse temperatures in the UK.
Disruption of production in more than one production area can
have a significant impact on supply.
1.3 Total energy use by the UK food chain
is estimated at 43 million tonnes of oil equivalent in 2006.[5]
2008 demonstrated the UK food systems sensitivity to energy
prices. UK farming's use of energy has become more intensive with
increased mechanisation. Increased energy prices have a direct
impact via fuel for farming operations, food distribution and
cool chain marketing and an indirect impact via the embedded energy
of inputs particularly nitrogen fertilizer which for some crops
represents 70% of the energy input of growing.
1.4 It is our view that the UK food system
has a lack of contingency in the face of crop failures or fuel
crisis. There is little storage capacity in the system, and although
"just in time" logistics systems adopted by the UK retail
sector bring benefits in terms of efficiency, they are potentially
vulnerable to direct or indirect disruption. There is a potential
vulnerability to various forms of "direct action". The
effects of this could be accentuated by the "panic buying"
that often sets in when consumers perceive a threat to security
of supply.
1.5 There are major weaknesses in the UK
food supply chain associated with human resources. It is our view
that there is likely to be a shortage of knowledge and expertise
in the medium term in relation to skills associated with crop
production and land management (the average age of UK farmers
is estimated to be well over [6])
and also in crop research and development (particularly in more
applied areas such as soil science and agronomy). An insufficient
supply of knowledgeable and skilled labour is also a major weakness.
The demands made by retailers, tighter environmental standards
and the use of non-chemical methods of pest, disease and weed
control require greater technical input, particularly in horticulture,
but the thin margins in the sector often do not permit sufficiently
attractive pay and benefits to be offered. Stricter immigration
polices restrict the availability of migrant labour, although
this has had a greater impact on the horticultural sector non
UK labour is now being increasingly used in arable farming.
1.6 We feel that wastage is a weakness throughout
the UK food supply chain. This occurs both pre- and post- harvest.
The quality requirements of retailers are often aesthetic and
lead to excessive waste due to grade out of supposedly inferior
(but perfectly edible) produce. Vegetable growers often grow "excess"
crops to ensure continuity of supply of high quality produce.
However, retailers can and do react to supply and demand and when
faced with short supply will relax quality requirements. In-field
waste due to weeds, pests and diseases can also lead to loss of
crop quality (particularly for high value horticultural produce)
but infestations also lead to significant yield losses in arable
crops. Loss of yield causes reduced productivity per unit area
of land and wastes resources such as fertilizers, pesticides and
water.
1.7 The threat from pests and diseases may
increase as a result of increased globalisation of the food supply
chain. Climate change may result in increased damage caused by
both endemic and exotic pests. UK farming relies on the responsible
and appropriate use of pesticides in order to produce crops as
efficiently as possible. New EU legislation will reduce the number
of available pesticides and threatens our ability to produce certain
crops. A consequence of this may be increased food imports from
countries where these "withdrawn" pesticides are still
used.
1.8 Replacing synthetic pesticides with
alternatives requires investment in R & D to provide alternatives,
including biological control agents. The EU (including the UK)
has a poorer record in making biological control agents available
than other states (e.g. US). One problem has been the difficulty
of registration in a system designed for synthetic pesticides.
The Pesticides Safety Direcorate's Biopesticides Scheme has sought
to overcome this. However, take up has not been as great as was
hoped; one reason for this may be the existence of the "grey
market" in which products are marketed without making a control
claim.
2. How well placed is the UK to make the most
of its opportunities in responding to the challenge of increasing
global food production by 50% by 2030 and doubling it by
2050, while ensuring that such production is sustainable?
2.1 In order to respond to the challenge
of increasing global food production there is a need to increase
production per unit area as most UK land suitable for growing
crops is being utilised and the need for land for other uses is
increasing e.g. pressure to release peri-urban land for housing.
There is a potential "conflict" between intensifying
food production and environmental benefits and a key research
priority should be to optimise the efficiency and sustainability
of UK food production. In order to increase sustainability of
production, UK farmers will need to increase yield per unit of
energy input, the use of alternative energy has potential to contribute
to sustainability but may also be a threat in terms of demand
for land (e.g. bioenergy crops).
2.2 In general, advances due to scientific research
are incremental building on existing knowledge; this requires
continuity in the research base to maintain expertise and capability.
In practice, a reduction in UK funding for agricultural research
has resulted in a serious loss of capacity, knowledge and expertise
threatening the UK's ability to respond to the global challenge.
This was compounded by the privatisation of the Agricultural Advisory
Service (ADAS) and UK farmers are at a distinct disadvantage compared
to competitors elsewhere (e.g. US) in not having the support of
a national extension service.
2.3 It is our view that UK farmers will
be better able to increase production by growing crops that are
best suited to the UK climate. This is expected to change in response
to global warming and farmers will need to respond by reviewing
the varieties they grow; they will need to be supported in this
by research. However, farmers are of necessity looking at short
time-scale returns and do not invest in long-term R & D. Also,
government funds much of its research in short timescales (3-4 yrs)
with no guarantee of continuity. This has led to a loss of expertise
and capacity in some areas of research, undermining the UK's own
ability to respond to the challenge of increasing global food
production and also to aid others to do so.
2.4 Taking account of the sustainability
of long term storage of UK produce we feel that there are opportunities
to contribute to meeting the global challenge through import substitution.
E.g. home production of dessert apples has decreased by about
40% over the last 10 years[7]with
a similar trend for other orchard fruit. Currently home production
of apples is about 30% of total supply and of pears and plums
about 15% of total supply.[8]
2.5 The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)
does not provide the optimal framework within which to develop
UK policy. The Treaty objectives for the policy have not changed
since the Treaty of Rome. The emphasis of the CAP has changed,
but "Pillar 2" spending which is more relevant to sustainability
has not grown as fast as was hoped. It is evident that some member
states hope that undifferentiated subsidies will continue beyond
2013 rather than developing payments that are more clearly
linked to specific policy objectives.
3. In particular, what are the challenges
the UK faces in relation to the following aspects of the supply
side of the food system:
3.1 Soil quality. We agree with the
findings of the report by the Royal Agricultural Society of England[9]
that "there is a much depleted body of specialists to address
the research, advisory and training issues required to support
the farming community." This undermines the UK's ability
to maintain the quality of UK soils in the face of the considerable
challenge of increasing food production.
3.2 Water Availability. Water is the most
important factor limiting crop production on a global scale. The
UK is dependent on imported food products which contain embedded,
"virtual water". These may become more at risk in the
future. In the UK, water resources are increasingly under pressure
due to competition from diverse users and the desire to protect
the environment. Overall, UKCIP projections are for geographical
and temporal changes in rainfall distribution with wetter winters,
particularly in the North and drier summers, particularly in the
South. The challenges are two-fold, to ensure maximum efficiency
in the use of water on farm (for irrigation, drinking or cleaning
of machinery) and to develop crops with higher water use efficiency
to reduce irrigation requirements and for robust performance in
conditions of variable water supply.
3.3 The Science Base.The Panel report
on Agriculture from the University Research Assessment Exercise
stated that the sector was responding well to key challenges relating
to sustainability, climate change, mitigation and adaptation,
and alternative land use. The report pointed out the importance
of combining strength in the scientific disciplines with effective
interdisciplinary working. Plant and Microbial Sciences form the
core disciplines underpinning crop production and these are being
driven forward through major advances in areas such as genome
sequencing and systems biology. Much of this takes place in "model"
plant species such as Arabidopsis. The challenge is to translate
the fundamental information into application in crops and to develop
models for traits not represented in Arabidopsis. Such "translational"
research is not well catered for (other than in Research Institutes)
in the current UK funding model. The recent NHF survey[10]
confirms that several areas of expertise are in short supply,
notably agronomy, plant pathology and weed science. Expertise
is often "one-deep". But succession planning is universally
weak or non-existent, because of reduced and uncertain funding.
Recruitment of young career scientists is a
significant challenge. Plant and Crop Sciences are not attractive
to students in comparison with other areas such as biomedical
subjects. This is not helped by the negative representation of
scientific advances in crop sciences such as GM. However, innovation,
scientific understanding and application of new technologies will
be essential to support UK agriculture meet future challenges.
These are likely to be manifested as predictive biology using
bioinformatic tools and the need to extend models from lab to
field environments to create plants capable of producing robust
yields in the face of changing environmental conditions.
3.4 The Provision of Training. An
important element in knowledge-based crop production is the availability
of an appropriately skilled workforce. According to a recent Lantra
survey the current workforce is ageing[11].
There are few new entrants to the UK food industry, which will
face an increasing skills shortage going forward. In recent years,
the "skills gap" has been taken up by migrant workers,
however, this cannot be relied on in future.
The lack of students wanting to study crop and
animal production has resulted in closure of many of the UK's
agricultural colleges which offered applied training and many
of those that do still exist have specialised in non food areas
(e.g. equine studies). Similarly the reduction in student numbers
for University level education has resulted in reduction in the
numbers of agriculture departments; however, those that still
exist provide a high standard of training. As has already been
stated Plant and Crop Sciences are not attractive to students,
which results in a limited number of students with the appropriate
background to carry out the underpinning research for crop production.
3.5 The way in which land is farmed and
managed. With the dwindling numbers of industry participants,
the scope for large scale automation is immense but the pace through
lack of available investment is slow. To achieve the levels of
growth aspired to it will be necessary to develop large scale
operations that have the infrastructure to cope with transport
logistics, legal compliance and modern agronomic management techniques.
Environmental management will still play a major role in the process.
As previously stated (2.1) there is a potential
"conflict" between increasing food production and environmental
benefits and there is a challenge to balance the aspirations of
different stakeholders for UK countryside. This requires a co-ordinated
strategy for UK land use within which to develop appropriate policy,
balancing the value of different "ecosytems services"
derived from the UK countryside.
4. What trends are likely to emerge on the
demand side of the food system in the UK, in terms of consumer
taste and habits, and what will be their main effect? What use
could be made of local food networks?
4.1 There is a prevailing view that customer
demand for fresh produce will increase as the aspirations for
health and the fight against obesity gathers momentum. This is
likely to take two routes which are already evident in the marketplace,
either basic produce for cooking from scratch or convenience forms,
e.g. pre-prepared or partially cooked for time-poor families.
The split will be much clearer than current confused offers with
packaging and labelling reduced and much clearer and simpler.
We are unsure whether broad scale organics will survive or become
niche again. This may be exacerbated by increasing focus on pesticides
and their substitution.
4.2 It remains to be seen how much environmental
concerns will have an impact on consumer food habits e.g. will
there be a reverse of the trend from vegetables to meat associated
with development and affluence? Will consumers as a whole, rather
than a minority, show a preference for locally produced food,
either through local markets or the existing food network and
sold by multiples? Will the relaxation of EU rules on appearance
and uniformity be echoed in consumer choices leading to reduced
waste and more efficient land use?
5. What role should Defra play both in ensuring
that the strengths of the UK food system are maintained and in
addressing the weaknesses that have been identified? What leadership
and assistance should Defra provide to the food industry?
5.1 If Government wants a sustainable food
policy, it needs to ensure there is a viable production process
with operators able to generate sufficient reward to continue
and reinvest in its future. Under those circumstances there would
not be a central role for Defra. However if Governments continue
to pursue a cheap food policy then the industry (and consumers)
will be fully reliant on Defra for a range of R&D support
driven by strong leadership and focus. A transparent system should
be in place for decisions led by evidence rather than by pressure
from special interest groups.
5.2 If sustainable production is to be valued
by consumers they will need a reliable way to make decisions;
Government should take the lead in devising a consistent, transparent
and independent form of accreditation of the sustainability of
different production systems to allow consumers to make real comparisons
and informed choices.
5.3 Continuity of investment in R &
D is necessary to maintain the UK's research capacity in the sciences
underpinning food production. Defra is an important funder of
research underpinning sustainable food production and should continue
to do so. An area where Defra can provide a lead in research funding
is GM where it is an appropriate approach.
5.4 In order to ensure efficient production
and supply there needs to be coordination between agencies and
industries throughout the food supply chain. The Government should
drive these interactions. Research into modelling the complexity
of production, supply and distribution chain would be useful.
Models could be used to monitor and adapt a system if any indicator
shows there is a problem.
6. How well does Defra engage with other relevant
departments across Government, and with European and international
bodies, on food policy and the regulatory framework for the food
supply chain? Is there a coherent cross-Government food strategy?
6.1 We don't believe there is coherent Cross-Government
food strategy. If there is it is lost in translation. The involvement
of the Cabinet Office in the food security issue has produced
a more strategic overview of the challenges and where they might
be tackled. However, the composition of the Food Strategy Task
Force established by the Cabinet Office shows just how many departments
and agencies are involved in food related issues (eight including
the Cabinet Office). Each of these departments has their own particular
driver, e.g. obesity (Department of Health), safety (Food Standards
Agency), competitiveness (BERR). There still needs to be a clearer
understanding of what the priorities are and who should be delivering
them.
7. What criteria should Defra use to monitor
how well the UK is doing in responding to the challenge of doubling
global food production by 2050 while ensuring that such production
is sustainable?
Defra collects a range of statistics on food production,
economics and land use. Key statistics should be abstracted and
benchmarked against European competitors. Categories could include:
— Increase in National yield for key
crops.
— Key R&D milestones and R&
D spend.
— Environmental Balance Sheets.
— Food quality performance.
— Workforce numbers age and qualifications.
January 2009
3 Defra Summary of farming & food in the UK, 2008. Back
4
Defra Food Statistics Pocketbook, 2008. Back
5
Defra Food Statistics Pocketbook, 2008. Back
6
RuSource, Spedding, 2008. Back
7
Defra Basic Horticultural Statistics, 2008. Back
8
Defra Basic Horticultural Statistics, 2008. Back
9
Royal Agricultural Society of England, Practice With Science Group:
The current status of soil and water management in England, 2008. Back
10
National Horticultural Forum: A review of the provision of UK
horticultural R & D, 2008. Back
11
Lantra's Business Telephone Survey, 2005 (Analysis of Current
and Future Skills Needs). Back
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