Securing food supplies up to 2050: the challenges faced by the UK - Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee Contents


Supplementary memorandum submitted by Natural England (SFS 63a)

1.  CONTEXT

  1.1  This further evidence is presented within the context of food and environmental security given in our original submission to the Committee. In the submission we stated that, in our view, the current problems of food insecurity in the UK are concentrated at the household level and relate to dietary patterns and nutritional security, rather than an absolute shortage of food or chronic problems with supply.

1.2  In the long term, however, we cannot guarantee such a secure food supply given a number of underlying factors such as climate change, population growth, and the depletion of oil. We therefore need to develop strategies to ensure the UK's food security whilst protecting and enhancing our natural environment.

1.3  As well as more sustainable food production, we believe nations should seek to avoid and lessen the projected increase in demand for food as far as possible, through encouraging more sustainable consumption and diets and less waste in supply chains and by households.

2.  INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOOD PRODUCTION AND THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT

  2.1  The natural environment provides a diverse range of edible plants and animal species that have been and continue to be used as food. About 7,000 species of plants and several hundred species of animals have been eaten by humans at one time or another. Today, however, only 15 plant species and eight animal species are relied upon for 90% of all human food.[47]

2.2  Many key ecosystem services provided by the natural environment are necessary to sustain agricultural productivity, such as the "regulating" services of water purification and nutrient cycling. Agriculture is also reliant on the services provided by biodiversity: a familiar example being the pollination services provided by bees, valued at an estimated £200 million to UK agriculture.[48]

  2.3  Biodiversity can also provide a pest regulatory function in agricultural systems by supporting predator species which suppress populations of pest species, for example, hoverflies and ladybirds regulating aphid numbers in a crop. In less intensive systems, it is possible therefore for these species to have an agronomic value by being part of an ecosystem that suppresses pests and diseases.

  2.4  In more intensive agricultural systems, the use of agro-chemicals to perform this function has an impact on both the target species and the natural predator species, either directly or through reduced food availability. Biodiversity can also be in direct competition with production, through competition for resources such as sunlight, nutrients, and space. It will therefore be affected by more intensive production, even if the production is much "cleaner" in terms of less pollutants.

  2.5  Although we currently have no models for predicting the likely impacts on biodiversity of further intensification in food production, over the last fifty years the increases in agricultural yields have been accompanied by a reduction in farmland biodiversity.

  2.6  We note the Government Office for Science's recent report which concludes the UK production of wheat and oilseed rape could potentially be increased by 41% and 55% respectively over the next five or so years, but that this would cause adverse environmental effects, particularly increasing greenhouse gas emissions and decreasing biodiversity.[49]

  2.7  Hence while some aspects of increased food production are compatible with a healthy natural environment (e.g. the reduced diffuse pollution benefits provided by precision farming), some practices for controlling pests and the competition for sunlight, nutrients, and land can create trade-offs between maximising production and maintaining biodiversity.

3.  PRIORITIES FOR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

  3.1  In our original written submission we stated that we need to facilitate research, development and extension of new farming practices, designs and technologies that can produce food with a lower impact on the environment, such as improved husbandry techniques, better timing and accuracy of input applications, and development of crop varieties and management systems.

3.2  In developing countries, failed crops at a local level can be a cause of hunger and malnutrition. In situations where crop yields are extremely low and contributing to hunger, there is an obvious need to increase yields. In countries where yields are currently high, the research and development priority should be to find ways to lower environmental impacts while maintaining productivity.

  3.3  It has been estimated that over the next 25 years average global wheat yields will need to increase from 2.6 to 3.5 tonnes per hectare to feed a growing population.[50] In 2007, average wheat yields in the UK were 7.2 tonnes per ha.[51] Although further yield increases might be possible in the UK, (the Government's chief scientist, John Beddington, has indicated wheat yields of 13 t/ha may be achievable by 2050),[52] there are likely to be more opportunities for increasing production sustainably in countries where agricultural yields are currently lower, many of which are expected to experience the projected increases in populations.

  3.4  As we note above, it will be difficult to increase yields significantly in intensive farming systems without creating adverse impacts on the natural environment. A key challenge will therefore be to maintain or increase food production while at the same time maintaining or increasing the resources available to non-crop biodiversity in and around fields. A certain degree of "inefficiency" in agricultural systems is in fact desirable to support this biodiversity. In addition, our ability to protect the natural environment outside of agricultural fields may improve, such as with improvement in the management of field margins and reductions in diffuse pollution benefiting aquatic species in rivers.

  3.5  To maintain or increase food production and lower environmental impacts, the development and use of different crop varieties will be important. The full breadth of technological approaches needs to be explored, with a full appreciation of the likely benefits, costs and risks of different technologies taken into account. The maintenance of plant genetic diversity is essential in terms of allowing the flexibility to adapt to changing conditions and providing resilience to environmental challenges. Likewise, it is important for technological approaches to be innately flexible and adaptable to a variety of situations, users and environmental conditions.

  3.6  As well as improvement in plant varieties, we also need research and development of practices and techniques in the way crops and livestock are managed—including cultivations, rotations, animal husbandry, soil conservation, nutrient management, pest control and energy use. Furthermore, we need to increase our knowledge of smaller scale, highly productive polycultural systems designed around ecological principles. Although these systems are not always commercially viable at present, they may become so in the future if and when circumstances change.

  3.7  Below we describe some of the practices, systems, designs and technologies which we believe have the potential for increasing or maintaining production whilst lowering environmental impacts, and which should therefore be considered as priorities for agricultural research, development and extension.

3.8  Agro-ecological systems

    — Active design of integrated systems following ecological principles. Various methods of design such as zoning, mapping resource flows, etc. Aims to replicate forms and functions of local ecosystems.

    — Use and encouragement of plant-animal relationships, with symbiotic relationships (e.g. plant foliage as feed for animals which supply manure as fertilizers to plants).

    — Use of many of the below practices and techniques in systems (e.g. integrated pest management, organic practices and techniques, etc).

    — Small "plot" sizes and spatially complex interrelationships between multiple crops making it difficult for crop specific pests and diseases to establish high population levels.

    — Identification of most suitable crops according to natural characteristics of area, chosen for good disease resistance, and which exhibit similar characteristics to wild cousins (and are therefore better able to exist without interventions).

    — Active creation of "edge effects" and micro-climates to enable better growth and yields, through various approaches, e.g. wind breaks to slow wind and reduce evaporation.

    — Continuous cover cropping and perennial plants favoured to reduce need for disturbance of soils, effort in cultivation, and to utilise vertical space and available solar energy.

    — Spatial and temporal annidation (i.e. production of more than one crop in the same space, e.g. intercropping/stacking, and production of more than one crop at different times of year, e.g. crop rotations).

3.9  Aquaculture

    — Choice of appropriate aquatic and/or marine species, e.g. indigenous to area, requiring no/fewer external inputs (e.g. fish meal for predatory species).

    — Production with a high degree of integration with local ecosystems and low stocking densities to avoid disease.

    — Use of other plants or animals to utilise and assimilate "wastes" from system.

3.10  Organic agriculture

    — Ecological approach encouraged. Employs many of the practices and techniques described above and below, such as crop rotations, green manures, and biological pest management.

    — Use of clovers and other legumes to fix nitrogen, mulches used to control weeds, selection of plant breeds for disease resistance, etc.

    — Generally lower stocking densities of animals and high welfare standards.

3.11  Hydrology and Integrated Water Management

    — Mapping of water courses and flows within a farm, good ditch management, and control of livestock to watercourses.

    — Assessing and planning for water needs, identifying best times for application, monitoring and repairing leaks.

    — Investment in water storage capabilities, such as ponds, and rain harvesting systems, utilising large roof areas on farm buildings.

    — Use of "terra forming" to retain water in system, e.g. swales, and cultivations along the contours of fields.

    — Extraction for irrigation below the replenishment rate of aquifers and water efficient irrigation systems.

3.12  Integrated Pest Management

    — Selection of crop varieties for pest resistance, crop rotations, and timing of cultivations, identification and monitoring.

    — Control of pests through the use of natural predators and parasites, reducing or avoiding the need for pesticides.

    — Control of weeds using mulches, membranes, rotations, etc.

    — Responsible, safe, and minimal use of pesticides, correct selection, application and timing, etc.

    — Development of "biopesticides" and other biological controls.

3.13  Crop management and cultivations

    — Crop rotations to improve fertility and nutrient replenishment (e.g. beans before wheat) or improve soil structure, control perennial weeds, etc.

    — Intercropping where two or more varieties of crops are grown alongside each other, potentially with synergies (e.g. alliums deterring pests from carrots).

    — Undersowing of crops with other plants to suppress weeds, protect soils, and used as green manures.

    — Minimum tillage to protect soils from erosion, and benefit soil organisms.

    — Cultivating along the contours of fields, to slow water runoff and allow better infiltration.

3.14  Integrated Soil Management

    — Good knowledge of soils, crop management, cultivations, and nutrient management.

    — Improving organic matter content to improve soil structure, enable better moisture retention (will improve resilience to drought), and sequester carbon.

    — Improving soil structure to allow beneficial soil organisms to function (through sub-soiling, soil lifting, soil conditioners, biological activity (worms), etc).

    — Structures and management to avoid soil erosion, such as perennial plantings (grasses, hedges, trees) around cultivated areas or along contours to stabilise soils, use of cover crops, etc.

3.15  Integrated Nutrient Management

    — Assessing and calculating nutrient needs and availability from manures, etc.

    — Utilisation of available organic fertilizers, such as composts, manures, and nitrogen fixing plants.

    — Soil testing and mapping to identify areas requiring more/less fertilizers and precision techniques to allow more accurate delivery of nutrients.

    — Application of fertilizers timed to coincide with plant need, correct calibration of equipment, etc.

    — Encouragement of mychorrizal associations, so that plants can thrive at lower soil nutrient and soil water availability.

3.16  Integrated Livestock Management

    — Stocking densities and timings which avoid over and under-grazing.

    — Good grassland management to encourage dense swards to avoid poaching, sequester carbon, etc.

    — Use of agricultural wastes, byproducts and other resources as feed.

    — Timely stock movements, good access, tracks and pathways, shelter, location or use of feeders and watering points, etc.

    — Use of manures as part of Integrated Nutrient Management.

3.17  Animal breeding and management

    — Breeding and alteration of environmental factors to improve conversion ratios, including gene mapping, parentage testing, etc.

    — Choice of breed appropriate for production system and climatic conditions, e.g. hardier breeds for out wintering, uplands, etc.

    — Good husbandry and welfare to reduce mortality rates of animals.

3.18  Plant breeding and genetic modification

    — Breeding and engineering of gene-products, bioactive molecules, crop germplasm, etc. to develop plants with desirable characteristics, such as:

    — over-expressing certain genes that allow roots to absorb more nitrogen, thus allowing crops to produce the same yield with less nitrogen fertilizer;

    — perennial versions of commonly cultivated annuals, and development of drought and salt tolerant crops; and

    — improved resistance of crops to biotic stresses, such as weeds and pests, through building internal defences.

3.19  Other technology and machinery

    — Appropriate choice of machinery and equipment (e.g. implements for cultivation,) to undertake tasks effectively and reduce environmental risks.

    — Computer modelling and satellite navigation to allow accurate sowing and harvesting of crops.

4.  YIELDS OF DIFFERENT AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS AND PRACTICES

  4.1  Research centres and institutions throughout the world have undertaken or have ongoing crop trials, comparing yields of different varieties, under different environmental conditions, with different amounts of inputs, or managed with different production techniques. There is also a significant amount of privately funded research into animal genetics, genetic modification and conventional plant breeding.

4.2  A number of trails have sought to make comparisons between systems, either between organic and conventional systems or comparing conventional, integrated, and organic systems. Some studies have measured yields from particular agricultural practices such as intercropping, urban and peri-urban horticultural production, and agro-forestry experiments.

  4.3  The comparison of farming systems, including yields, can however be highly problematic, even in situations where the results are unlikely to be controversial. Problems arise due to definitions (particularly of the different agricultural systems), the objectives and design of studies, time periods, methods and standards used for comparison, and the need to isolate factors which affect performance but are not related to the system.

  4.4  Despite these problems, a number of studies do provide indicators as to the effects of different systems on yield.

  4.5  A long term comparative study of organic and conventional crop yields on nutrient depleted soils in Sweden showed conventional crop yields were significantly in excess of organic yields, although the difference was much less for grass/clover than for all crops in the rotation. Comparison of Long-Term Organic and Conventional Crop-Livestock Systems on a Previously Nutrient Depleted Soil in Sweden Holger Kirchmanna,*, Lars Bergströma, Thomas Kätterera, Lennart Mattssona and Sven Gessleinb a Dep. of Soil Science, Swedish Univ of Agricultural Sciences, 2006.

AVERAGE CROP YIELDS (±SE) DURING THE PERIOD 1981-98


Mean dry matter yield

Type of system
All crops in the 6-yr rotation cycle
Barley
Winter wheat
Grass/clover
kg ha-1
Conventional
6380 ± 755a §
3745 ±
650a
6075 ±
524a
7480 ± 755a
Organic
3170 ± 436b
2105 ±
176b
4200 ±
544b
6140 ± 146a
Control
2080 ± 336c
1119 ± 75c
3680 ±
644c
not grown

†  Column refers to all six crops in rotation incl. winter oil seed rape, sugarbeet and oats in the conventional and beans, peas and potatoes in the organic system.
‡  Grass/clover includes weeds.
§  Within columns, mean values followed by different letters are significantly different at P < 0.05.


  4.6  A different result was identified by another long-term study, comparing four farming systems that differ in crop rotation design and material input use: a 2-year and a 4-year rotation conventional system, an organic and a low-input system. Results from the first eight years of the project show that the organic and low-input systems had yields comparable to the conventional systems in all crops which were tested—tomato, safflower, corn and bean. Clark S, et al 1999a. Crop-yield and economic comparisons of organic, low-input, and conventional farming systems in California's Sacramento Valley. American Journal of Alternative Agriculture v 14 (3 Sustainable Agriculture Farming Systems project (SFAS) at UC, Davis.

  4.7  One of the longest running agricultural trials on record (more than 150 years) is the Broadbalk experiment at the Rothamsted. The trials compare a manure based fertilizer farming system ( not certified organic) to a synthetic chemical fertilizer farming system. Wheat yields are shown to be on average slightly higher in the organically fertilized plots (3.45 tonnes/hectare) than the plots receiving chemical fertilizers (3.40 tonnes/hectare). Soil fertility, measured as soil organic matter and nitrogen levels, increased by 120% over 150 years in the organic plots, compared with 20% increase in chemically fertilized plots. Jenkinson, D. S. et al, 1994. In Long-term experiments in Agricultural and Ecological Sciences (eds Leigh, R A & johnston, A E) p 117-138 (CAB Int. wallingford, U.K. 1994).

  4.8  A review of European data on organic yields concluded:

    — Organic cereal yields are typically 60-70% of those under conventional management.

    — For most countries, studies show a high variation in both the absolute and relative yields of potatoes.

    — Organic vegetable yields are often as high as under conventional management, but it is difficult to draw general conclusions due to the high diversity of different vegetables.

    — Little data is available on pasture and grassland yields in organic farming reported values lie in the range of 70-100% of conventional yields, depending on the intensity of use.

    — In livestock production, performances per head are quite similar to those in conventional farming. But due to lower stocking rates on organic farms, yields per hectare are lower.

    Economic Performance of Organic Farms in Europe. Offermann and Nieberg. 2000.

  4.9  The effect on yields of intercropping at various densities has been studied. In field trials in 1987-88, wheat and field beans were grown as sole crops and additive intercrops. The intercrops consisted of all density combinations of wheat and beans from 25 to 100%. Crops of 50:50 winter wheat and field beans were shown to require 30-50% less land to obtain the same yield to when the crops are grown separately. Effects of plant density on intercropped wheat and field beans in an organic farming system H. A. J. Bulson, R. W. Snaydon and C. E. Stopes Agricultural Botany Department, University of Reading.

  4.10  A study of urban and peri urban agriculture calculated that horticultural species, as opposed to other food crops, can provide up to 50 kg of fresh produce per m² per year depending upon the system employed. The report also states that urban producers achieve efficiencies in production by making use of under-utilized resources, such as vacant land, treated wastewater and recycled waste and unemployed labour. It estimates that productivity can be as much as 15 times the output per hectare of rural agriculture. Urban and Peri-urban Agriculture: report presented to the FAO Committee on Agriculture (COAG) meeting in Rome 25/26 January 1999.

April 2009






47   United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity. Agricultural Biodiversity: Introduction. UN, 2005. Back

48   NAO, The Health of Livestock and Honeybees in England, National Audit Office, 2009. Back

49   The potential to increase productivity of wheat and oilseed rape in the UK, GOS, March 2009. Back

50   Ortiz et al. Climate Change: Can wheat beat the heat? Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 126 (2008) 45-58. Back

51   Defra (2008) Agriculture in the United Kingdom 2007. Back

52   Evidence submitted to the EFRA enquiry on food supplies. Back


 
previous page contents

House of Commons home page Parliament home page House of Lords home page search page enquiries index

© Parliamentary copyright 2009
Prepared 21 July 2009