Securing food supplies up to 2050: the challenges faced by the UK - Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee Contents


Examination of Witnesses (Questions 540 - 559)

THURSDAY 7 MAY 2009

HILARY BENN MP, PROFESSOR ROBERT WATSON AND MS SUSANNA MAY

  Q540  David Taylor: You have signed up to the target of 50% by 2030 and doubling by 2050, but food is not an homogenous product. Do you have any idea as to the nature of commodities which you might want to encourage greater production of within the United Kingdom and how would you incentivise?

  Hilary Benn: To be honest—I gave the example of apples earlier—I really do not see why we cannot produce more apples, but in order to push that you have got to have more demand for British apples. Actually, looking at the figures last night, in the last four years the proportion of apples that are home produced has actually managed to rise from a rather small 23% to 33%, so that is a bit of progress, but if you go back over time, of course, a lot of apple orchards were grubbed up. Strawberries we are growing more because of the new production systems. I think vegetables and apples would be a good place, and I think consumers have a very important part to play in saying, "I would like those to be produced."

  Q541  David Taylor: Susanna looked as if she may be about to reply.

  Ms May: No.

  Chairman: As the recently appointed President of the National Fruit Show, I am delighted to have your support for fruit, but I want to pass the questioning to Gavin Strang.

  Q542  Dr Strang: Do you expect the valuation of sterling against the euro to result in an increase in production in UK agriculture relative to the rest of Europe?

  Hilary Benn: Clearly, the movement that there has been in the last year and a half, two years has improved the position, but I am not going to offer any forecast on where the price is going to go, for time-honoured reasons.

  Q543  Dr Strang: To pick up a point on production, in a sense we are all saying we would like to see more British production in certain varieties. Do you actually look at this? Take milk, for example, which is a hugely important commodity. Does the department constantly look at the milk situation and see how you can help facilitate increased production? Do you look at the situation when it looks as if they are starting to take the farm gate price down again, which obviously is a matter of some concern? Does the department consciously focus on each commodity in that way regularly and seek to help domestic production, or do you simply see it as all part of the CAP[11] and all responding to the single market?

  Hilary Benn: We obviously keep a close eye on what is happening. I think it is fair to say that it has been left to the market for a very long time, because food production has always been a private sector business, with really the exception of what has happened in war time and the state taking powers to direct and to encourage. Since you have taken milk, Dr Strang, as an example, we are self-sufficient in milk. Although there are fewer producers, if you look at a chart of milk production going back over the last 20 years—it has gone down a bit but it is 13.3 million litres in 2008, it was a bit more 20 years ago—it has become much more productive. That is undoubtedly what has happened in relation to it. There is, of course, a continuing debate about the milk price that is paid to farmers and, more broadly on the question of prices, there have been various inquiries into that. The Competition Commission is having a consultation as we speak on the question of whether there should be an ombudsman, and that may come to Government to form a view on in due course. I think if there are particular difficulties in particular sectors, that is when Defra might become involved, but, generally speaking, the operation of the markets produce the picture that we can see.

  Dr Strang: There is a decline on the pig side, and there has been concern expressed in the last week or two that the poultry sector may start to go the same way. Does that concern you? Are you concerned about the future of production in the UK?

  Q544  Chairman: To add to that, the concern is (and this is why we asked about the juxtaposition between the long-term and short-term cycle) that you can start in the short-term to erode, if you like, your agricultural and food infrastructure and it is very difficult to get it back if the future trend says we need more of the things that we are good at producing.

  Hilary Benn: I agree with that, and I think we absolutely could not be in a position to say, and it is a caricature where some have positioned themselves in the past, "Well, we can always buy the food from somewhere", because I do believe very strongly that it is important that we have a strong, productive agricultural base in this country as a matter of fundamental policy. The Pig Taskforce actually is a really good example of a specific initiative being taken, following the advice that you have given, working with the industry to say, "What can we do to assist", and it has been very much welcomed by the pig sector. There are things that we can do in government to improve the extent to which we buy UK product, and you can see the numbers are going up that are reported every year, but I know that that taskforce is looking at some particular products to make sure that the industry can produce what those in the public sector are purchasing. Where there is a particular difficulty, I think it is sensible for Defra to get involved to see what we can do to assist, and I made the observation about fruit and veg because actually we need to eat more of it. We are importing a lot more of it because people are eating more, and that is a good thing in terms of our diet, but we do have, as you said, Chairman, a natural advantage in relation to some of these things, and I think if consumers demand, then that is probably the single most powerful lever that can be pulled to encourage more production if they say, "Hey, we want apples from Britain as opposed to apples that are imported from somewhere else."

  Q545  Mr Williams: Secretary of State, you rightly talk about the power of the market and the consumer, but the fact is that since we have decoupled support from agriculture the amount of food produced in this country, or temporary food stuffs, has decreased. It seems to me that, if you are in the business of stimulating or encouraging particular forms of production, you have actually thrown away every lever that you ever had in terms of being able to incentivise beef production, or wheat production, or whatever. If people are really serious that there is a problem in food security, then we directly have got to encourage farmers to produce, and the levers are not there at the moment. You have talked about the wheat production high yields last year reflecting higher prices. As I understand it, our plantings are down by 15% this year. What is your view to coupling and decoupling?

  Hilary Benn: It is down because the price has gone down. At its peak it was £180 and it is now 90'ish, something like that. So fundamentally, if we were not as a world to make progress in producing more food for a growing population, one would expect that to be reflected in the price, and that would then have a consequence of bringing forward more production. We did have a system that produced a lot, and more than we could use and more than we could eat, and it was stuck in intervention—it was called the Common Agricultural Policy—and one of the consequences of that policy was that we undermined agricultural production in other parts of the world. We made it very hard for farmers in Africa and elsewhere to have a market because we were selling the stuff that we produced and did not want at a subsidised price and ruining the chances of them having a successful business, and we have still some way to go there, although intervention stocks are very, very different now compared to when we had big lakes and mountains and so on, and although there are some in Europe who say, "Told you the CAP was a good idea. Let us go back to where we were", I am not persuaded that that is the right approach, because there is also (and this is the other reason I give) an environmental consequence to that, as we know only too well. You just say: "Right, produce, produce", never mind what it does to the raw material on which production depends—the quality of the soil, the water, the biodiversity—and we have got to think, it seems to me, smartly about this. Bob you were nodding.

  Professor Watson: Yes, that was the main conclusion for the international assessment that I directed. Yes, we have increased food production across the world. It is not socially equitable; there are still a billion people who are going to bed hungry every day. There are significant adverse effects—contributions to climate change, loss of biodiversity, soil and water degradation—and one of the biggest problems was the OECD[12] subsidies. They were leading to over production, food being dumped in sub-Saharan Africa so the local farmer could not be competitive. The CAP Reform now is moving in the right direction of what I call multi-functionality of agriculture. That is to say, farmers should be paid not only for producing food but maintaining the ecosystem services, maintaining the soil, maintaining clean water, and so I think we are going in the right direction now to recognise that we have to integrate biodiversity, ecosystem services into, and pay farmers for, protecting and maintaining these services that are so essential; but the fundamental OECD subsidies were having a major adverse effect on food production, especially in sub-Saharan Africa.


  Q546  Mr Williams: The Chatham House submission to the Committee said that one of the roles that Defra could play was to help to secure a thriving UK food system and would be providing a risk management framework through which short, medium and long-term risks to food security could be monitored and managed. What are the main risks? You have said that, basically, food security is not an issue in Britain at the moment, but what would be the main risks in the future to the supply of food to the UK?

  Hilary Benn: I think in the short-term—I alluded to some of them earlier—you could have fuel shortages, you could have panic buying, you could have drought here. Medium and longer-term risks: climate change we have talked about, pests, diseases. There is an example of a changing climate changing the risk. What is going to happen to temperature and what increased temperature does to yield? I think there was some evidence, in the very hot summer of 2003, that we saw, in some parts of Europe, yields declining because once the temperature gets over a certain level you do not get so much. The way in which the world market operates: if other countries were to say, "Right we are going to have export bans on a more regular basis", or, "We are going to go for self-sufficiency", then I think we really are in big trouble in those circumstances. I suppose the answer to the Chatham House suggestion is, indeed, the assessment of UK food security, because it is looking at all of these things, short, medium and long-term. I wonder, Susanna, whether you want to say a word about that, because it is, I think, a pretty impressive piece of work. It is in progress and you will see the result when we publish it.

  Ms May: It is work in progress at the moment. What it is trying to do is to map all of the main risks, but there are so many potential risks to food security that what we are really trying to do is capture how resilient the food system is to the different risks. We want to assess what the risks are, then look at how they are being managed by different sectors—sometimes it is for government, sometimes it is for other stakeholders—and then also look at whether or not there are any gaps there and, therefore, what additional action might need to be taken, but because it tries to capture what food security actually is, there is a high level compendium of evidence and it is looking, or will look, at lots of different themes which try and capture all the different dimensions of food security. It is a large piece of work and, as I say, at the moment work in progress, but we want to try and provide a framework within which we can actually think about food security as a problem and then prioritise what action needs to be taken.

  Q547  Chairman: Does that work include both flows of food into the United Kingdom as well as our indigenous production?

  Ms May: It is looking at UK food security but, because our food security is so closely tied with global food security, it does include within it as a theme global availability of food supply, yes, and global sustainability of supply.

  Q548  Mr Williams: Will it include some analysis of political instability in some of the major food producing countries?

  Ms May: At the moment it is not finalised.

  Hilary Benn: It is a very good question. It is intended to be a framework, if you can look through a framework, which will help us to see what it is that needs to be done, but it will not be a one-off, because as circumstances change, obviously, we are going to have to look at it and say, "We have got a problem here. What are we going to do about it?", and, sure, political instability will be a factor, because that may result from problems of food in a country which may lead to an export ban, which may impact on a source of supply that we traditionally relied upon.

  Q549  Mr Williams: But if we do not do something to address this problem, there could be food riots in various countries, and those sorts of issues, that would really have some effect on food security in this country.

  Hilary Benn: That is true. At one end of the spectrum, when there was a drought in Australia it had an impact on bread prices here. That is one example of interdependence. If you have got a particular crop or product that we buy a lot of and it is not available any more because there is a problem in the country, then we have got a difficulty too, and that is why, in the end, it is about the world working together to make sure that we have got enough food.

  Q550  Mr Williams: This is the main way you are monitoring risk at the moment.

  Hilary Benn: Yes.

  Q551  Mr Williams: When do you expect to complete the work?

  Hilary Benn: We will probably publish in the autumn. We were having some debate about whether it would be before the summer break or after. It will probably be more likely in the autumn, because we hope to try and get it right and maybe have it alongside the vision and the plan. We have not, to be honest, quite decided in what order to bring them out.

  Q552  David Taylor: The nexus between your last job and this one was probably Doha, and in the Doha Round there has been action taken against import bans but little, if anything, in relation to export controls. This seems to have triggered a process whereby countries have been buying up huge areas of land in Africa and Asia. I seem to recall about 25 million hectares, which is an area of agricultural land within Germany. Does this imbalance our desire to have secure food supplies? Are we part of that? Are there very many British organisations acquiring land abroad?

  Hilary Benn: It is a sign of some countries thinking, "What are we going to do to ensure our food security?" It follows the search for raw materials. If you look at China and other countries in Africa buying up contracts, in the end it is for the government of a country to regulate who is able to buy land. If a government said, "Yes, that is okay; you can buy it", and then times get tough and the food that is being grown on that land is being shipped out of the country to feed other people and the people of that country are saying, "What about us?", then you could see that you have a difficulty. Fundamentally it is a contractual relationship between the owner of the land, the government that regulates and the country that is seeking to purchase it, and I cannot conceive how you would have a system internationally for seeking to regulate it. I am not suggesting that we should, although one or two people have asked the question, but it is a sign of the times.

  Q553  David Taylor: You are fairly sanguine about it.

  Hilary Benn: Let me put it this way. The chances of trying to regulate internationally those kinds of decisions, any more than one can regulate internationally contracts signed between one country and another to buy raw materials, or others, I think would be quite difficult.

  Q554  Mr Drew: Hilary, you have already mentioned the issue of water, soil quality and the way in which that impacts on the whole of our world. By implication, you would be in favour of moving to a low input form of agriculture. I would just be interested in what is the vision for Defra to set the strategy up for our farming industry to be able to pursue that?

  Hilary Benn: It is partly a question of research. Defra is spending about, from memory, five million pounds a year on soil and water research. We are going to publish what we are calling our Soil Strategy, which is about trying to protect against degradation and encourage people to manage the soil properly. We have changed the arrangements to do with the Soil Protection Review actually to give farmers greater responsibility, this is following the Health Check, because I was a bit amazed when I came into this job and discovered that I needed to take a decision to allow farmers (going back to Ms McIntosh's question) to go onto their land when it is waterlogged in order to try and retrieve the crops which may have been damaged or may not; and we have now transferred the responsibility for taking that decision to farmers rather than me having to sign a bit of paper saying, "You can do it." I think that is quite a sensible change. We are giving advice on the use of fertilisers. We have produced a guide. I cannot remember the name of it.

  Ms May: The Fertiliser Manual.

  Hilary Benn: The Fertiliser Manual, which is for farmers, which we are in the process of updating, but fundamentally it will be about farmers thinking how they can use less fertiliser, how they can manage water better, hang onto it when it is falling out of the sky, because we are likely to have wetter winters, so that you can use it when it is not falling out of the sky in the dryer summers that we are going to have—because that is what the scientists are telling us—and also trying to develop varieties of plants which can cope with, in particular, less water.

  Professor Watson: Just this morning I had a meeting with Don Curry, who I think might be sitting in the back here today, with Natural England, the Environment Agency and the Royal Agricultural Society on the very issue of soil and water research, and we have agreed we are going to do an analysis of what information is needed to manage our soil and water better, what information do we already have, is it being used appropriately, what are the gaps in our knowledge, and we have already agreed that we are going to jointly do a gap analysis, bring in the private sector, bring in NFU, then hold a workshop to see how we can move this agenda forward basically. That was the meeting we had literally just this morning, but when you get on to research later, we have got a whole series of LINK projects, so they are collaborative projects between Defra and the private sector, that are looking at things like water use efficiency, nitrogen use efficiency. Clearly, just because of the cost of fertilisers, the cost of pesticides, we need to think about integrated pest management, integrated natural resource management. It makes eminent sense.

  Q555  Chairman: Out of idle curiosity, why are you having to do all of this almost afresh when Rothamsted have been doing it for goodness knows how long and they have got this new project to probe, if you like, the DNA of the soil? There seem to be an awful lot they are doing on this already.

  Professor Watson: Absolutely, and so the question is: is there still a gap? Have we got all the right programmes now or is there a gap in the research, and where should the priorities be? So it is not starting from scratch; it is building upon what we have already got.

  Q556  Miss McIntosh: Secretary of State, you talked earlier about nitrates existing naturally in the soil to a high level. I would argue that the EU Directive was wrong on the level it set for the nitrates as well, and you mentioned the pesticide, that we lost the argument there. What can we do, on the basis of sound scientific knowledge, to persuade Europe when they do get it wrong, because it is crippling the farming community to apply those?

  Hilary Benn: I can claim no credit for the Nitrates Directive. Those who agreed it at the time no doubt thought it was a good idea. I think if you were doing it afresh, it would look rather different, but there is undoubtedly a problem of nitrates getting into the water courses and something has to be done about it. I think the best way to deal with it is to have a decent impact assessment, and in the case of the pesticides regulation, frankly, there has not been a decent impact assessment. We did it through the Pesticide Safety Directorate and the Commission did not do it. I think it is absolutely fundamental, as we take these decisions, that we know the consequence, and my particular complaint about the pesticides regulation was we were being asked to sign up to something when we did not actually know what the consequence would be because no-one could answer the question in the case of the triazoles I mentioned earlier. Will these continue to be available or not? The answer is we will not know until later, and yet we are being asked to sign up to a process that could rule out something that we do need to treat a disease that affects wheat.

  Professor Watson: Even worse, there is a philosophical shift with respect to pesticides in Europe of moving away from a risk-based approach to a hazards-based approach. If you use a hazards-based approach, we should not have any electricity in this room; we probably should not be having water, because we might drown in it. Basically, it is a philosophical shift that really worries me. Fundamentally it is wrong. It should be a risk-based approach so that you look at the risks and the benefits, because if we go in general to a hazards-based approach we are going to ban most things. John Beddington, as a scientist, has been trying to lead the charge, but one of the fundamental problems is not every European country has a chief scientific adviser for him to talk to. The European Commission does not have a chief scientific adviser. John is trying to find out how we can actually make sure that we have got people to talk to in Europe about the fact that this is a wrong-headed policy and philosophy as well as, obviously, ministers in different countries having a debate. So this is actually a very worrying trend, and the triazoles could be the tip of the iceberg if we are not careful.

  Q557  Mr Drew: I was going to talk a bit about soil, but the Chairman has stolen my thunder there, so I will stick to something else: the contribution that we should be making in the area of agriculture to green house gas reduction. Given that we know that it was one of the sticking points over Kyoto, when we go to Copenhagen, and whatever follows that, what contribution is British agriculture going to be asked to make and what will we now expect from the rest of the world in the agricultural field to bear down on greenhouse gas emissions?

  Hilary Benn: It is a really important question actually. Why? Because about 7% of our greenhouse gas emissions in the UK come from agriculture—and 14% of global emissions. So the idea that we are going to get the levels down without agriculture making a contribution is really a non-runner, and you will know, Mr Drew, that the Climate Change Committee had some things to say about agriculture's contribution when it produced its report, and the Government is currently looking, having adopted the carbon budgets, at what the plan is going to be for making sure that we achieve those. The short answer is that agriculture is going to have to play its part. We have a bit of a difficulty at the moment, which is that the two measures that are used to look at greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture under the UNFCCC[13] is (1) livestock numbers and (2) inputs. Now we are going to have to have a more sophisticated way of doing this, that is the first point that I would make, but you have to have decent scientific evidence about the impact that ways of feeding cattle, for example, will have on the emissions which result from them in order for that to be accepted as a decent way of counting. In the end I think it is both a challenge for farmers and land managers to look at this. The obvious areas are afforestation on land, the way in which you fuel and run your tractors and machinery because you can make carbon and greenhouse savings there, there may be something about the way in which soil is managed, there will certainly be savings that can be derived from the way in which fertiliser is used, much more selective use of fertiliser will reduce the emissions, but it is also, if you think a bit further ahead, an opportunity for farmers and land managers to say to the rest of the economy, "Hey, we can help you to deal with carbon. So you give me some money which I will then use to plant some trees over here and that helps you to achieve your carbon budget". I think it is an opportunity if we see it in that way and peat bogs are a really good example of that because the way in which you manage your peat bogs can either help them to hold carbon and greenhouse gases or emit a lot of it into the atmosphere, principally by keeping them wet as we know.


  Q558  Mr Drew: Let us go on to water finally. A specific question: to what extent is the Floods and Water Bill an opportunity to be quite radical in this area? I am not saying it is at the moment, but we were told yesterday there are degrees and ways in which we can hang some more things on the coat hanger. Is there an opportunity here to look at how we use water in an agricultural sense more efficiently and more effectively by looking at that Bill to set the parameters more fundamentally?

  Hilary Benn: It certainly is intended to be an opportunity. Let us take a practical example: abstraction licences. Now, a lot of agriculture will make use of abstraction of water and we have to make sure that abstraction is sustainable because if we do not do that then we have quite a fundamental problem. As a society as a whole we are going to have to look after and use water much more efficiently, both as householders and elsewhere, although if we do have more rain in the winter to what extent will it be possible to hang onto it, to harvest the water, and I think that will lead to some change in the way in which farmers use their land because if there is a way in which you can catch it in a pond and then use it in the summer, I think that is one of the changes we are likely to see.

  Professor Watson: The issue of water globally is clearly probably the most fundamental issue we have got, that goes without saying. It is also going to be a major issue within the UK. We already know that all the projections of the implications of climate change are indeed, as Hilary said, wetter winters and much drier summers, and therefore the challenge will be how do we do things such as water storage. One has to obviously think through the approaches of water pricing policies. We have to think about the whole issue of embedded water. When we buy and sell produce abroad, it is embedded water basically. These issues are absolutely fundamental. That is why water use efficiency on plants is absolutely crucial, how can we have precision irrigation so we use precisely the amount of water we need, so absolutely central domestically and an even bigger issue internationally.

  Q559  Chairman: Let us move on to research and development. I had hoped my colleague, Lynne Jones, would be here to take up the questioning but sadly I think she has been detained elsewhere. Professor Kell, the Chief Executive of BBSRC,[14] made under the current circumstances what one might call a challenging statement when he called for an investment in agricultural science to be increased by £100 million in order to improve food security. Can I ask Professor Watson, do you recognise that as a valid statement because I am also aware that Professor Beddington has commented that within Defra there has been a decline in the Department's budget for food based issues. Certainly on the Committee's recent trip to Brazil we picked up quite a lot of mood music that there was an acknowledgement within the UK of the need for more expenditure in the field of science for agriculture if we were going to tackle the challenges of long-term food security.

  Professor Watson: This is one of the issues that we have talked about jointly as CSA, so not just John, myself, Gordon Conway from DFID,[15] we have also met with all the chief executives of the Research Councils, so not just Doug Kell from BBSRC. We would argue that one of the areas that does need attention is further investment and if it were to be available we would put food and water security as one of our higher priority. Within the Living with Environmental Change programme, which currently has 17 partners, about to be 18 when DE[16] CC comes on board, one of those objectives is food and water security, others are climate change, biodiversity, et cetera. We would argue that is the one area that should actually be given serious consideration for an uplift, our reason being simply the challenge we have talked about. How does the world double food production? How do you do it environmentally sustainably? What are the challenges of managing water? We realise this is a very major issue. Doug Kell probably might argue that this should be a new standalone, our food security programme, the alternative is to embed it further in Living with Environmental Change.



11   Common Agricultural Policy Back

12   Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development Back

13   United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change Back

14   Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council Back

15   Department for International Development. Back

16   Department of Energy and Climate Change Back


 
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