|
Memorandum submitted by Dr Howard Lee (SFS 18) Executive Summary In my
view the current I have
summarised the main reasons that lead me to this conclusion and have also
suggested some strategies to mitigate against food insecurity. An important key step will be to undertake research to determine what practical solutions can be introduced. For example alternative farming methods or the growth of urban food production backed by community support. Appendix A provides further details and summarises research projects that would inform this planning. 1. How robust is the current UK food
system? What are its main strengths and weaknesses? The current UK food system is extremely
insecure and the following weaknesses are important: 1.1. Domestic food production is largely based upon fossil fuel inputs, which are likely to become increasingly unavailable. Global demand for oil and natural gas is already close to exceeding that of supply[1] and current price fluctuations are due to a combination of factors stemming from economic instability caused at least partly by fear of fossil fuel shortages. Thus, security of supplies of fossil-based mineral fertilisers and synthetic pesticides are likely to be compromised. Modern crop cultivars have been bred to produce only if supported by these inputs and thus severe yield penalties are likely if these inputs are compromised, especially for herbicides and other specific pesticides. Diesel shortages will also affect machinery use on farms, where reliance on fossil motive power is almost universal. 1.2 Climate change is now understood to involve increasingly severe
Extreme Weather Events (EWEs). British soils have indicated declining rates of
soil organic matter (SOM) over the past 50 years. SOM is well known to affect soil
properties, improving structural stability, porosity and drainage potential,
encouraging beneficial soil fauna, releasing a steady rate of macro and micro
nutrients and improving water holding capacity and drought tolerance. The
implications of EWEs for many British soils with low SOM are that crops are
increasingly liable to suffer from drought stress when there is low rainfall
and soils to erode when precipitation is excessive, all of which will further
reduce yields. 1.3 Currently UK agriculture can feed between two-thirds and three-quarters of the population. It is estimated that, as the above limitations take effect over the next ten years, that this level of self sufficiency will drop below 50%. 2. How well placed is the UK to make the most
of its opportunities in responding to the challenge of increasing global food
production by 50% by 2030 and doubling it by 2050, while ensuring that such
production is sustainable? 2.1. Due to the above reasons, unfortunately the UK will not be in a
position to contribute to increasing global food production as detailed between
now and 2030, though this might change subsequently if domestic food production
increases are achieved. 3. In
particular, what are the challenges the UK faces in relation to the following
aspects of the supply side of the food system: 3.1. Soil quality There is a problem of relatively poor drainage of farmland. This is due to compaction by larger machinery, poor investment in drainage systems and lower SOMs as stated above. Thus there is an increasing frequency of water logging events. This quickly kills most crop species and also leads to losses of nitrogen from soils as Nitrous Oxide (N20 - a greenhouse gas approximately 200 times more damaging than carbon dioxide) 3.2. Water availability Less water will be available on farm land, since compacted soils cannot quickly absorb and retain sudden rainfall. Water shortages are liable to affect both rural areas (where more irrigation will be needed to counteract shortages; 30% increase expected by 2050) and urban zones as the expectations of citizens continue to increase. 3.3. The marine environment Coastal inundation will further reduce farmland and have a small but measureable effect on total production (57% of grade 1 arable land is below the 5m contour line) 3.4. The science base Research in agriculture has declined and, more importantly, not investigated the issues highlighted below. There will need to be an urgent injection of funds to help us understand and develop a new skills base. 3.5. The provision of training New R&D detailed below will need to be rapidly outreached into the farming sector, with widespread provision of relevant training. Here at Hadlow we have set up the first degree in Sustainable Land Management to help address these issues. 3.6. Trade barriers These will tend to restrict fossil fuel supplies and also compromise our access to food imports as new agricultural production areas in eastern Europe decline. Most food exporting nations will be facing similar problems in agriculture and thus disinclined to export to us. Basically we will soon be facing a severe deficit of fossil fuel and imported food supplies. 3.7. The way in which land is
farmed and managed This will not be fit-for-purpose as the above changes
occur. Fundamental shifts in farming and land management policies will be
required. 4. What trends are likely to emerge on the
demand side of the food system in the UK, in terms of consumer taste and
habits, and what will be their main effect? What use could be made of
local food networks? 4.1. Consumer tastes and habits will be altered, not by free choice but
as some foods become prohibitively expensive. There will be an emphasis upon
local meats, vegetables and fruits - accessibility and price will tend to
dictate eating habits and there will be a return to seasonal food. Local food
networks will be useful in facilitating access to produce but will need to be
developed to incorporate a large expansion in local production. 5. What role should 5.1. Defra needs to accept the
impending problems of food insecurity and explore some novel options: 5.1.1. Defra should have contingency planning for events such as interrupted
food imports or oil and natural gas supplies cannot be guaranteed. The
suggested key priority will be the development of long term supplies of
sufficient energy, food and water for all UK citizens. This will entail some
'out-of-the-box' thinking and planning. Some suggestions for how UK agriculture
might secure food supplies for the future are listed below. The needs of
citizens for energy and water are also considered en passant, since all three are interrelated. 5.1.2. Urban food security needs to be considered as a priority given this is where most UK citizens live. It is suggested that urban-wide food production plans would be needed but that the implementation would focus upon self-organised and motivated local groups of citizens (approximately 500 people per group) in adjoining housing, who aim for a large measure of self sufficiency in energy, food and water by means of a sophisticated integration of: (i) Organic societal waste streams - processed via anaerobic digestion (AD) for methane fuel (one commercial AD unit should provide sufficient methane to generate electricity for approximately 500 people in 250 houses) - additional methane for motive power (petrol engines can easily be adapted to run on methane) - and subsequent composting of digestate as a fertilizer; (ii) Communal food production in all available spaces, subject to soil testing for freedom from contaminants - using intensive, raised-bed and protected cropping (e.g. polythene tunnel or equivalent) techniques and also composts as fertilizer from (i) above; (iii) Micro livestock, as detailed below; (iv) Water harvesting from
houses and also the development of micro reservoirs where possible. There are
some associated retro-fit policies needed for housing but those are outside the
scope of this
5.1.3. The production detailed above for urban areas would need to stretch
outside each city and town. The size of this peri-urban zone would depend upon
population size and efficiency of production. In both urban and peri-urban
areas, micro-livestock maintenance would be an integral part of food
production, absorbing organic wastes, being able to live in relatively small
areas and growing relatively quickly. Examples are pigs and chickens, though
others could include goats, rabbits etc. 5.1.4. Overall, rural agricultural land in the remainder of the UK and outside urban areas would also need to be re-assessed. Upland areas would always present relatively low production potential but need to continue to be managed, albeit extensively. It is recommended that the management of lower altitude rural land would need some fundamental changes if its food production potential was to be maximised:
(i) Previous studies on low-input production and a wealth of knowledge and experience from organic farming would need to be re-visited and incorporated as a reference data base. However, this would not be sufficient - nobody has attempted to manage a modern mixed farm with machinery but lacking external fossil inputs and such developments would be mostly novel; (ii) Existing knowledge indicates that farming without fossil inputs would depend in part upon maximising the efficiency of nutrient cycling and this is known to be facilitated by the presence of livestock (especially cattle and sheep). Thus, most rural stockless UK farms would need to consider the re-introduction of livestock; (iii) As indicated above there would also need to be a priority to encourage rapid increases in SOM, though re-introducing livestock will assist this. 5.1.5. The above developments will lead to new commercial
enterprises - it is suggested that trading would become increasingly localised
and potentially vigorous. Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) would have an
important part to play, both in urban and rural areas. New employment
opportunities would arise, requiring new skill sets. 6. How well does 6.1. There is insufficient engagement currently but the impending food
security situation means that 7. What criteria should 7.1. Defra already has some effective sustainability indicators in place but
these need to be channelled into an assessment of food security in the 8. Appendix A Suggested policies and actions for a worst case scenario 8.1 Detailed below is a summary of policies that may be required if:
· Oil and natural gas imports cannot be guaranteed and · All food imports into the · This occurs in a climate change scenario of EWEs of continuing or increasing severity.
8.1.1 What if the above situation occurred? It is
recommended that Government consider such a possibility and that contingency
planning is put in place. The policies suggested below are summarised as key
points, but can be elaborated. The suggested key priority will be the
development of long term supplies of sufficient energy, food and water for all 8.1.2
8.2 Urban food security 8.2.1 This might not be seen
as the remit of
(v) Organic societal waste streams - processed via anaerobic digestion (AD) for methane fuel (one commercial AD unit should provide sufficient methane to generate electricity for approximately 500 people in 250 houses) - additional methane for motive power (petrol engines can easily be adapted to run on methane) - and subsequent composting of digestate as a fertilizer; (vi) Communal food production in all available spaces, subject to soil testing for freedom from contaminants - using intensive, raised-bed and protected cropping (e.g. polythene tunnel or equivalent) techniques and also composts as fertilizer from (i) above; (vii) Micro livestock, as detailed below; (viii) Water harvesting from
houses and also the development of micro reservoirs where possible. There are
some associated retro-fit policies needed for housing but those are outside the
scope of this
8.2.2 The production detailed above for urban areas would need to stretch outside each city and town. This peri-urban zone would need to extend out from urban centres, with the distance depending upon population size and efficiency of production.
8.2.3 In both urban and peri-urban areas, micro-livestock maintenance would be an integral part of food production, absorbing organic wastes, being able to live in relatively small areas and growing relatively quickly. Examples are pigs and chickens, though others could include goats, rabbits etc.
8.2.4 Urban and peri urban
food production would need to be planned carefully, depending upon the
perish-ability of produce and distance to consumer. The ideas of geographers
such as von
Thünen in early 19th Century pre-industrial
8.3 Blending into rural areas 8.3.1 The development of zones of peri-urban production, in a sophisticated development of von Thünen's and other's ideas, would tend to blend into rural areas, for example with the production of perishable items (such as dairy) extending into urban areas along road, rail, river and canal transport spines.
8.3.2 Overall, rural agricultural land in the remainder of the
(i) Previous studies on low-input production and a wealth of knowledge and experience from organic farming would need to be re-visited and incorporated as a reference data base. However, this would not be sufficient - nobody has attempted to manage a modern mixed farm with machinery but lacking external fossil inputs and such developments would be mostly novel; (ii) Existing knowledge indicates that farming without fossil
inputs would depend in part upon maximising the efficiency of nutrient cycling
and this is known to be facilitated by the presence of livestock (especially
cattle and sheep). Thus, most rural stockless (iii) As indicated above there would also need to be a priority to encourage rapid increases in SOM, though re-introducing livestock will assist this.
(i) to (iii) above are just a summary - there would be much more detail required as part of this management regime and this could be provided.
8.4 Economic activity 8.4.1 The above developments will lead to new commercial enterprises - it is suggested that trading would become increasingly localised and potentially vigorous. Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) would have an important part to play, both in urban and rural areas. New employment opportunities would arise, requiring new skill sets.
8.5 Suggested research 8.5.1 The above worst case scenario policy suggestions verge on the revolutionary and no Government body would consider their implementation without careful study. However, it would be prudent to plan for this scenario and the following R&D is suggested as a matter of urgency:
8.5.2 Overall investigation A desktop study is needed to access all existing information that can be utilised, including low input studies and experiences from organic production. This would form a vital base to identify further required research.
8.5.3 Urban investigation A pilot study is needed of at least one chosen urban area of 500 citizens in contiguous housing, where the above policies can be explored and assessed. Budgetary and other constraints might require a smaller number of participants and this should be considered if necessary. The important point is to investigate this option, no matter how small-scale it might be. The key question will be: what proportion of its requirements for food, energy and water can be obtained by such a group? The food production aspects will require some specialist horticultural knowledge and some participants will need to be offered training, though mutual sharing of knowledge and support within such a group is also expected. Group self-help and the dynamics of the development of social capital will be an important component of this study. Much would be learnt from such an investigation and many ongoing improvements achieved - i.e. a greater level of medium and longer-term self sufficiency might be achieved than had initially been expected. Clearly, wider transport and organisational issues cannot be addressed unless an entire urban area is developed, though desktop modelling could be taken forward.
8.5.4 Rural investigation At least one and preferably several stockless farms would need to be developed for this scenario, covering the major soil types and management scales (i.e. small family farm to large scale estates). For the rapid introduction of livestock, 'pre-fabricated' livestock housing would need to be explored, that could be erected quickly. Just as in urban developments, the main priority on rural farms would be to determine the maximum sustainable yield of food, energy and water that could be obtained from such a system. Ideally the farm would need to be developed as self sufficient in all three and able to export at least useful and increasing quantities of food as expertise is refined.
8.5.5 Extension and Training Any new developments would require support both for farmers and other citizens: free or subsidised training would be required to help farmers adjust and urban citizens adapt. Additionally, the development of commerce would require new skills to match employment opportunities and relevant training would be needed (including small scale engineering, AD waste management, composting, horticulture, livestock husbandry etc.). There would be some psychological barriers to the adoption of these concepts, since there is a natural reluctance by many towards fundamental change. Counselling and other personal support would be required in addition to practical advice.
January 2009 [1] It is important to remember that it is not the total quantity of fossil fuel that matters, but rather what can be obtained at any given time: thus, promised reserves are of no help unless they can be accessed quickly and economically. |