6 Terrorism and physical security
- The
threat posed by terrorists and weapons of mass destruction (WMD)
242. The threat that terrorists will acquire nuclear,
biological or chemical weapons and use them against the UK is
distinct from the risk which is posed by states, although in several
respects related to it.[529]
In March 2009, the Government issued a revised version of its
CONTEST counter-terrorism strategy which stated that:
The aim of the strategy is 'to reduce the risk
to the UK and its interests overseas from international terrorism,
so that people can go about their lives freely and with confidence'.
We believe that to date the strategy has achieved its intended
aim.[530]
The strategy judged that:
Contemporary terrorist organisations aspire to
use chemical, biological, radiological and even nuclear weapons.
Changing technology and the theft and smuggling of chemical, biological,
radiological, nuclear and explosive (CBRNE) materials make this
aspiration more realistic than it may have been in the recent
past.[531]
The strategy features "[a] new cross-cutting
strand of work on containing the threat from an attack using chemical,
biological, radiological, nuclear and explosive (CBRNE) materials."[532]
243. We wish to place on record that we do not have
access to assessments by the intelligence services of the scale
and nature of the threat of terrorist acquisition and use of WMD,
other than those which are reflected in material in the public
domain.
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
244. The potential exists for terrorists to mount
a nuclear or radiological attack in a number of ways, for example
by acquiring a nuclear weapon, attempting to build one from basic
materials, or attempting to achieve dispersal of nuclear material
by attacking a nuclear facility or detonating a 'dirty bomb' (that
is, a bomb which contains nuclear or radiological material but
in which the explosion is achieved with conventional means). As
Lord Robertson put it to us, "the existence of non-state
actors, transnational terrorism and terrorist networks has brought
more clearly into focus the potential dangers involved in the
proliferation of nuclear weapons".[533]
245. There is no doubt that terrorists would like
to acquire nuclear weapons. Bill Rammell told us that al-Qaeda
"clearly have that intent" and that "Osama bin
Laden has talked about an Islamic duty to develop nuclear capability[
]
there was a call to arms, as it were, and they were seeking to
recruit physicists and others to come forward and help."[534]
Mariot Leslie, Director-General of Defence and Intelligence at
the FCO, said that:
The Government are extremely worried about the
capabilities of terrorist groups, but I know of no technology
that could make it possible to make a viable nuclear device that
did not use many kilograms of nuclear material. A miniature nuclear
device is not something that we should be worried about. The acquisition
of fissile material by terrorist groups is a serious concern and
the Government have programmes to address that with our allies.[535]
246. Dr Jones told us that "It would be very
difficult, but not impossible, for terrorists to acquire one or
a very limited number of nuclear weapons. They would probably
need the witting or unwitting assistance of a nuclear-capable
nation to do so. It would be more difficult for intelligence to
detect such activities with a high degree of reliability."[536]
The unwitting assistance of a nuclear-capable nation could come
as a result of inadequate physical security around nuclear material
(discussed below) or the action of rogue individuals. Baroness
Williams told us that "internal betrayals" were a serious
risk:
the most serious breaches that we know of [
]
are quite astonishing because they had nothing to do with terrorists.
One involved the deputy chairman in charge of security at nuclear
sites who was himself a Russian citizen. He was sacked from his
job for attempting to smuggle and steal nuclear materials and
sell them abroad. The second one, which is almost as troubling
[
] was an attempt by certain senior figures in the Pakistani
military to get hold of nuclear materials to sell them to al-Qaeda.
Baroness Williams cited as her source for these assertions
the latest (2008) "Securing the Bomb" report by Matthew
Bunn of the Belfer Center at Harvard University, which provides
an extensive review of the physical and politico-administrative
security of nuclear materials around the world. The report documents
known instances of actual or attempted security breaches.[537]
247. Pakistan is a country of particular concern,
having spawned the nuclear proliferation network run by A.Q. Khan
which helped to supply the illicit nuclear weapons programmes
of Iran, Libya, North Korea and possibly other states.[538]
Giving evidence in February 2009 to our inquiry into "Global
Security: Afghanistan and Pakistan", Professor Shaun Gregory
of the Pakistan Security Research Unit at Bradford University
described an incident in which "two very senior Pakistan
atomic energy commission individuals" met Osama bin Laden
in 2001. He posited that "it is not knowledge of specific
individuals that matters; what matters is the relationship between
those individuals and the networks that they can reachthat
is a very important meeting. One of the dynamics that we need
to be worried about is the risk of transfer in that way."[539]
248. Mark Fitzpatrick gave us his assessment of the
danger that Pakistan's nuclear technology could fall into the
hands of terrorists:
Pakistan undertook a reform of the command and
control of nuclear assets. It put in charge of the programme elements
of the Pakistani army which are the most elite and reliable of
forces available. I have a degree of confidence that it really
did change its control over these weapons in ways that make me
think they are not going to fall into the wrong hands overnight.
That does not mean that I have no concern at all. Pakistan is
a country beset by many problems. The confluence of terrorist
threats in Pakistan and the existence of these nuclear weapons
puts it very high on the list of countries that we need to be
concerned about.[540]
249. Professor Gregory expressed concern that there
was potential in Pakistan for collaboration between
those with extremist, Islamist sympathies inside
the army and the ISI [Inter-Services Intelligence], with terrorists
or extremists. The Pakistanis have put a huge amount of effort
into trying to mitigate that problem. But they recognise, as we
all do, that you cannot have 100 per cent assurance that the people
who have day-to-day control over nuclear weapons are wholly reliable
in that way.[541]
Also giving evidence to our Afghanistan and Pakistan
inquiry, in May 2009, FCO Minister Lord Malloch-Brown told us
that:
If the responsible military establishment were
to lose control of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, it could be devastating
to world security. At the moment we believe that there is no immediate
risk of that happening, but it remains a threat while it is there,
and we have to deal with it. [
] we have to bring Pakistan
properly into the international community on nuclear issues, and
nuclear management and security, because it is an undeclared nuclear
weapons state.[542]
250. Russia and other former Soviet states have also
been regarded as countries from which terrorists might source
nuclear material, owing to the large quantities present there
and the often poor levels of security. Lord Robertson described
the "gap [in time] between the collapse of the Soviet Union
and the Putin era" as "a black hole that unfortunately
still represents a danger to us".[543]
He told us of a meeting which he had had as NATO Secretary-General
with then-President Putin, "who said quite candidly that
after the end of the Soviet Union a lot of things happened and
a lot of things got lost, and he said that they did not know where
they were. He said that that represents a danger not only to them,
but to the world as a whole."[544]
251. Although the specific source of the polonium
used has not been conclusively identified, at least in public,
there was a Russian connection to what The Economist described
as "in effect, a miniature act of nuclear terrorism on the
streets of London",[545]
namely the murder of Alexander Litvinenko by polonium poisoning
in November 2006. According to a senior former Australian diplomat
in the non-proliferation field:
the Litvinenko incident seems to confirm the
long-recognized threat of radiological weapons but it also reminds
us that criminals and terrorists can obtain a key component for
producing nuclear weapons and smuggle it undetected through the
airports of countries on high alert against terrorist threats.[546]
The Litvinenko murder also demonstrated the extent
of the disruption that may be caused even by a radiological attack
that does not appear to have been intended to cause mass casualties:
over 700 people had to be tested for polonium contamination, as
did a number of locations, some of which had to be closed for
several months; and the Health Protection Agency was obliged to
run two dedicated centres until February 2007 to deal with the
incident, on which over 3,000 people worked in total.[547]
252. We conclude that, although it would appear
to be difficult for terrorists acting independently of state agencies
to build a nuclear bomb, there is a genuine risk that terrorists
could acquire nuclear or radiological material, which might be
used as an instrument of terror in various ways. We further conclude
that, in addition to inadequate levels of physical security which
might allow terrorists to seize nuclear or radiological material
directly, 'rogue' individuals or groups in states possessing nuclear
weapons or material represent an important but particularly hard-to-address
means by which terrorists might acquire such material. We recommend
that the Government should press its counterparts in countries
that are potential sources of nuclear and radiological materials
to treat this issue with the highest priority. We further recommend
that the Government in its response to this Report should set
out what action it is taking overseas to minimise the 'dirty bomb'
threat to the UK.
BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL WEAPONS
253. Biological and chemical weapons are potential
terrorist weapons. Dr Paul Cornish of Chatham House has stated
that:
Although the large-scale production, weaponization
and delivery of chemical weapons would be challenging, scientifically
and logistically, as well as extremely expensive, a small number
of low-yield chemical weapons would be relatively easy to hide
and transport and might thus appeal to a well-organized and well-funded
terrorist group.
Dr Cornish also claimed that:
Although the weaponization of a biological agent
would be complex, requiring high-level competence in microbiology,
pathology, aerosol physics, aerobiology and meteorology, for a
terrorist group seeking a 'single-shot' biological attack, safety,
reliability and predictability in both production and weaponization
might not be of great concern.[548]
254. This was also the view of Dr Jones, who told
us that:
A few kilograms of the more lethal BW agents
have the potential to kill as many or more people than a single
large nuclear explosion, the device for their delivery would be
much lighter and less bulky [
] It would be highly optimistic
to expect any protective regime to be completely effective.[549]
255. One problem raised by biological weapons is
that much of the technology required for their production is dual-use,
and readily available.[550]
It is possible that some states may be willing to sponsor terrorist
use of biological or chemical weapons. Dr Jones claimed that:
perhaps the highest risk is associated with the
deniable covert use of biological warfare agent by a state which
has used its resources to develop an effective weapon. The potential
threat from non-state actors makes the attribution of any such
attack more difficult.[551]
256. There are precedents for the use of biological
and chemical weapons by terrorists. In 2001, attacks in the US
using the biological agent anthrax were attributed to a researcher
at a US Army research laboratory, Bruce Ivins, who committed suicide
in July 2008.[552]
Dr Jones described the difficulties in establishing who has carried
out such attacks, and said that many experts "remain sceptical"
that Bruce Ivins was the culprit in this case.[553]
In 1995 sarin gas killed 12 people when it was released into the
Tokyo subway system by Japanese terrorist group Aum Shinrikyo.[554]
However, production of the sarin was not easy and is estimated
to have cost $30 million, involved 80 scientists and taken over
a year to achieve.[555]
Dr Jones judged that neither the sarin nor the anthrax attack
had been particularly successful, and suggested that this was
"indicative of the sort of problems that terrorists are much
more likely to have in using these systems than a state, if that
state has developed a capability using all its resources."
257. In the UK there was an alleged attempt to produce
ricin in a Wood Green flat in 2003, and in 2006 police raided
a house in Forest Gate where it was suspected that chemical weapons
had been in production.[556]
258. It is not easy accurately to assess the risk
that terrorists will acquire or use biological or chemical weapons
in future, or to adjudge whether there is a greater risk that
terrorists will use such weapons than that states will do so.
Bill Rammell told us that the FCO considers terrorists to be of
greater concern than states in relation to these weapons. The
FCO's Mariot Leslie added that "it is relatively easy to
make something crude that would have a big impact on members of
the public."[557]
259. There are clear indications that terrorist organisations
are engaged in the pursuit of chemical and biological weapons
capabilities. Dr Paul Cornish has written that al-Qaeda has made
significant efforts to acquire a biological weapons capability
and that "it is widely accepted that al-Qaeda has, for several
years, been committed to the acquisition and/or production of
chemical weapons".[558]
This is evidenced by the discovery of a laboratory at Kandahar
in Afghanistan which was designed for the development of biological
agents and to which scientists had been recruited.[559]
A number of other recent assessments have strengthened the consensus
that terrorist use of biological weapons, in particular, is a
serious threat.[560]
260. Daniel Feakes emphasised that any precautions
taken must be proportionate to the risk:
There are two extremes to the debate and I would
be somewhere in the middle. One extreme has been particularly
apparent in the US, for example, where people talk about bioterrorism
as an existential threat, which we need something as big as the
Manhattan project to combat. Quite a lot of expensive facilities
were built in the US, following that tangent. Then you have other
people saying that the threat has been over-hyped and overblown.
[
] I place myself somewhere in between the two extremes.[561]
261. We conclude that the Government is correct
in its claim that the UK faces a significant threat arising from
terrorist use of chemical or biological weapons, and to argue
that at present this threat is greater than the threat that such
weapons might be used against the UK by hostile states. We recommend
that in its response to this Report the Government should set
out what action it is taking to mitigate this threat.
BALLISTIC MISSILES
262. As we outlined in Chapter 5, ballistic missiles
are one means by which both conventional and nuclear, chemical
or biological weapons may be delivered to targets. With regard
to ballistic missiles, the FCO told us that:
While concern has traditionally focused on state
proliferators, after the tragic events of 11 September 2001 it
became evident that more also has to be done to decrease the risk
of WMD delivery systems falling into the hands of terrorist groups
and individuals. One way to counter this threat is to maintain
vigilance over the transfer of missile equipment, material, and
related technologies usable for systems capable of delivering
WMD.[562]
263. The extent to which terrorists might seek to
acquire ballistic missiles as a delivery method is a matter for
argument. Analysts often suggest that ballistic missiles would
not be terrorists' most likely delivery method, largely because
of the technical difficulties involved. For example, the Nuclear
Threat Initiative states that:
Nor does it seem likely that terrorists will
have the option of ballistic missiles for delivering nuclear weapons
any time soon, all the more so because nuclear weapons fashioned
by terrorists are likely to be bulkier and heavier than those
that a country will be able to develop. (Of course, if terrorists
can steal or take over both a nuclear weapon and a missile with
which to deliver it, this assessment changes.)
Other means of delivery abound. [
] Terrorists
would be likely to choose more 'primitive' delivery methods, as
countries also might that wanted to attack someone without revealing
the origin of the strike. Such methods could include stashing
a bomb on an airliner; using a light aircraft to deliver a bomb
over more modest distances (in much the way such aircraft are
routinely used for smuggling drugs); or stowing a bomb on a boat
(a freighter, a fishing trawler, a luxury yacht) to explode at
pier-side in any coastal city.
A bomb that had already been smuggled into the
target country, or assembled there, could also be delivered by
train, bus, truck, or car. Boats, airliners, trains, buses, and
long-haul trucks could handle nuclear weapons of any plausible
size, no matter how crude and heavy. Only in the cases of delivery
by light aircraft, automobile, or pick-up truck might it be necessary
to confine the weight of the bomb to under a ton. And it cannot
be ruled out that a bomb would be assembled at the location where
it is intended to be detonated, in which case only the nuclear-explosive
materials and other components would have to be 'delivered' and
there would be essentially no constraint on the size of the completed
device.
Nevertheless, concerns have been raised by the trend
in ballistic missile technology towards the use of solid-fuelled
missiles rather than liquid-fuelled ones, as the former are smaller,
more mobile and more easily launched by fewer people.
Initiatives against terrorist
acquisition of WMD
264. Multilateral non-proliferation and disarmament
treatiesif implemented effectively at the national levelare
potentially useful in preventing terrorists from acquiring, developing
and training to use WMD, because they reduce the number of states
in which such activities might take place or from which they might
be sourced. As Nicholas Sims told us:
On the day that the Chemical Weapons Convention
entered into force29 April 1997I was interviewed
by Tokyo television and they said, 'Well, what use is this against
Aum Shinrikyo?' My answer was, 'At least now, with the Chemical
Weapons Convention in force, every state is obliged, under Article
7 of that Convention, to enact penal legislation to take administrative
measures to do lots of surveillance and prevention.' That was
already required under Article 4 of the Biological Weapons Convention,
so you need a treaty structure, but then you need an enormous
amount of national implementation.[563]
265. In effect, terrorists as well as states are
targeted by measures to control the trade in essential materials,
reduce the threat posed by individuals (such as the UK's ATAS
scheme) and cut off sources of finance, such as those we outlined
in Chapter 2. There are also a number of measures designed specifically
to combat terrorist acquisition or use of WMD. We outline these
below.
G8 GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP/UK GLOBAL
THREAT REDUCTION PROGRAMME
266. The Global Partnership Against Weapons and Materials
of Mass Destruction is a G8 programme established in 2002, initially
for ten years, which aims "to prevent terrorists, or those
that harbour them, from acquiring or developing nuclear, chemical,
radiological and biological weapons; missiles; and related materials,
equipment and technology."[564]
Over 20 states are now involved, plus the EU. Through the Global
Partnership, projects have been implemented in areas including
the destruction of chemical weapons, to meet obligations under
the Chemical Weapons Convention; the dismantling of nuclear submarines
and nuclear reactors; nuclear safety and the physical security
of nuclear materials; and the creation of alternative employment
for former weapons scientists, to reduce the risk of diversion
of expertise.[565]
267. The UK's contribution to the Global Partnership
is delivered through the UK's Global Threat Reduction Programme.
This is the UK's largest programme of non-proliferation assistance,
with a budget of £36.5 million a year for the three years
from 2008/09 to 2010/11.[566]
The programme is led by the FCO, but the budget is allocated to
the Department for Energy and Climate Change, which manages the
nuclear and radiological elements of the programme and passes
onto the Ministry of Defence the roughly 10% of the budget which
funds projects relating to chemical and biological weapons.[567]
The Government regards the Global Threat Reduction Programme as
an "important element" of the 'deny' strand of its '4
D's' counter-proliferation strategy.[568]
268. The Global Partnership and the UK's contribution
to it have focused on Russia and other states of the former Soviet
Union (FSU). We commended the work under way in Russia in our
Report on "Global Security: Russia" in 2007.[569]
A mid-point review of the Global Partnership conducted under Germany's
G8 chairmanship in 2007 concluded that the scheme was open to
geographical expansion. At the Hokkaido summit under Japan's G8
chairmanship in July 2008, G8 leaders reaffirmed their commitment
to completing and continuing with projects in the FSU but stated
that the Global Partnership "must evolve further to address
new, emerging risks worldwide" and said that new recipient
countries could be included on a case-by-case basis.[570]
The UK is already active in Iraq, Libya and South Asia.[571]
The latest (2008) annual report on the UK's Global Threat Reduction
Programme said that the Government "expects the geographic
spread of its work to widen";[572]
and in response to our Report on "Global Security: Japan
and Korea", in which we commended the G8's willingness to
expand the Global Partnership and suggested that the programme
could encompass work in North Korea,[573]
the FCO said that it had "already begun discussions with
G8 partners [
] to identify both new recipient and donor
countries."[574]
269. We conclude that the G8 Global Partnership,
and the UK's contribution to it through the Global Threat Reduction
Programme, are continuing to deliver important results in reducing
the risks of a security breach occurring in relation to WMD. We
recommend that, despite the current strains on its budgetary position,
the Government should maintain its strong political and financial
support for the Global Partnership, including the programme's
geographical expansion and continuation beyond 2012. We further
recommend that in its response to this Report, the Government
should provide an update on plans for the Global Partnership beyond
2012, following the July 2009 G8 summit in Italy.
UN SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION 1540
270. UN Security Council Resolution 1540, passed
in 2004, "imposes legally-binding obligations on all UN Member
States to establish and enforce domestic legislation to prevent
weapons of mass destruction and related delivery systems falling
into the hands of non-state actors such as terrorists, criminals
and proliferation networks". It requires "all states
to tighten their domestic legal framework so as to criminalize
and enforce measures against WMD proliferation to and by non-state
actors."[575]
The Resolution established a Committee of the Security Council,
the 1540 Committee, which collates reports from states and reports
to the Security Council on implementation. In a process in which
the UK was heavily involved, the Committee's initial two-year
mandate has been extended twice, most recently in April 2008,
for three years. On that occasion, the Committee was also given
what the FCO described as a focus on "operational capacity-building"
which "should enable the Committee to encourage and to provide
practical or financial assistance to those states which still
need to improve their performance in this crucial area."[576]
271. The FCO drew our attention to two key features
of UNSCR 1540. First, it is legally binding on all UN Member States,
unlike treaties which rely on states signing up voluntarily. In
this respect, UNSCR 1540 has a more extensive reach than instruments
such as the NPT, CWC or BTWC. Second, UNSCR 1540 is directed specifically
at the threat posed by non-state groups, whereas international
non-proliferation instruments had previously been targeted primarily
at states.[577]
272. Lord Robertson described UNSCR 1540 as "a
very importantand undervaluedpart of the non-proliferation
regime at the moment. [
] A lot of British expertise is being
fed into that area, which we believe should be given greater attention".[578]
He expressed concern that it might "wither on the vine, simply
because people think, 'Well, we have done as much as we can.'
In fact, we have done nowhere near what we could do on that".
He suggested that "policing, pushing and invigilating the
implementation of that Resolution, believing in it and resourcing
are some things that the British Government can do".[579]
273. We conclude that UN Security Council Resolution
1540 is a vital part of the international non-proliferation regime.
We commend the work that the British Government has done in support
of UNSCR 1540. We recommend that the Government should work actively
to ensure that the Resolution is implemented successfully by all
UN Member States, providing practical assistance and resources
where required.
THE GLOBAL INITIATIVE TO COMBAT
NUCLEAR TERRORISM (GICNT)
274. The Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism
(GICNT) was launched by then Presidents Bush and Putin in July
2006. It has 75 state members. It is not a treaty and has no secretariat
or subscription, but is designed to build on other instruments
described in this chapter. The FCO said that it "brings together
like-minded countries to expand and accelerate efforts to combat
nuclear terrorism", and that it aims to:
ensure accounting, control and physical protection
of nuclear material and radioactive substances, as well as security
of civilian nuclear facilities; detect and suppress illicit trafficking
or other activities involving such materials (especially their
acquisition and use by terrorists); respond to and mitigate the
consequences of acts of nuclear terrorism; co-operate in the development
of technical means to combat nuclear terrorism; ensure that law
enforcement takes all necessary measures to deny safe haven to
terrorists seeking to acquire or use nuclear materials; strengthen
national legal frameworks to ensure the effective prosecution
and punishment of terrorists and those who facilitate acts of
nuclear terrorism.[580]
275. The initiative is currently focussed on a substantive
exercise planning programme, as part of which states will host
capacity-building workshops. The FCO told us that the UK hosted
an Anti-Nuclear Smuggling Assistance workshop in September 2007
and a Knowledge Proliferation workshop in October 2008. A joint
US/UK workshop on the detection of radiological and nuclear materials
is being planned for 2009/10.[581]
INTERNATIONAL CONVENTION ON THE
SUPPRESSION OF ACTS OF NUCLEAR TERRORISM
276. The International Convention on the Suppression
of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism entered into force in July 2007.
It aims to ensure that radioactive material is protected, via
the designation by States Parties of certain acts as terrorist
offences, and by requiring cooperation to prevent these offences
from being committed. It also provides for judicial cooperation
among States Parties in the event that such offences are committed,
in order to deny terrorists any safe haven.
277. The UK has signed the Convention but has yet
to ratify it. The Home Office has the departmental lead for UK
ratification.[582]
The Home Office told us that it anticipates UK ratification of
the Convention before September 2009.[583]
278. We recommend that the UK should ratify the
International Convention on the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear
Terrorism as soon as possible. We look forward to the Government
taking the steps necessary to allow this to happen in line with
its anticipated September 2009 timeframe, and we recommend that
in its response to this Report the Government should update us
on this process.
Physical security
Nuclear
materials
279. The FCO told us that "the need to ensure
the physical protection of fissile material is central to [its]
efforts" to tackle the threat of nuclear terrorism.[584]
Baroness Williams noted that the vast majority of known incidents
in which nuclear material has fallen into unauthorised hands "involved
poor security or attempts by peoplebut not serious terrorist
groupsto seize or steal", but the number of these
incidents highlights the scale of the physical security problem.
Between January 1993 and December 2007, the IAEA had confirmed
to its Illicit Trafficking Database (ITDB) 303 incidents involving
unauthorised possession of nuclear or other radioactive materials
and related criminal activities. Of these, fifteen involved highly
enriched uranium and plutonium. There were in addition 389 reported
incidents involving the theft or loss of relevant materials, and
571 incidents involving other unauthorised activities. The IAEA
website commented that "information reported to the ITDB
shows a persistent problem with the illicit trafficking in nuclear
and other radioactive materials, thefts, losses, and other unauthorised
activities."[585]
280. Baroness Williams drew our attention to the
risk represented by research institutions which possess highly
enriched uranium, albeit often in very small amounts, which are
"often in countries with no knowledge at all of the dangers
of nuclear weaponry" and where there may be "very little
proper security".[586]
In November 2007, armed men attacked the Pelindaba nuclear research
facility in South Africa, which houses "hundreds of kilograms"
of weapons-grade uranium, and spent 45 minutes inside the supposedly
secured perimeter, shooting a worker in the emergency control
centre.[587]
281. Professor Chalmers told us that even as regards
the arsenals of the UK and US, "there are real issues surrounding
their accidental use and the security of those weapons, and the
associated fissile materials, against terrorism which we need
to address and which are not being addressed sufficiently right
now."[588] He
reminded us of two recent security breaches in the US:
Last year, half a dozen US nuclear-armed missiles
went missing from the US Air Force for a couple of days without
anybody realising. Subsequently, of course, very senior Pentagon
officials were fired as a result. There was another case in May
of this year in which there was a fire in a Minuteman silo. The
fire was not even detected for five days by the people in charge
of the site. Things like that happen in any complex organisation.
I do not have any specific concerns in relation to UK nuclear
weapons, but I think that we need to be very careful.[589]
282. Professor Chalmers outlined the advantages with
regard to safety of the UK's single-system, submarine-based nuclear
arsenal:
because we have a survivable system, and only
one system, there is less pressure in times of crisis or uncertainty
to mobilise or reduce the safety level [
]. There is a lot
to be said for a system such as ours, compared with that of other
countries. I would not suggest for a moment that ours was less
safe than others; I think that it is more safe by having single-platform
delivery. Nevertheless, events happen. There could be breakthroughs
in anti-submarine warfarethere might already be breakthroughs
that I am not aware ofwhich mean that we have to change
our operating patterns. They are dynamic systems, so we should
never think that anything is foolproof.[590]
283. The most recent security incident involving
the British nuclear force occurred in February 2009, when one
of the Trident submarines collided underwater with one of its
French counterparts while on patrol in the Atlantic. Both boats
were damaged, but First Sea Lord Sir Jonathon Band said that nuclear
safety had not been compromised.[591]
An inquiry was under way as we completed this Report.
284. As we outlined above, Pakistan is a state of
particular concern as regards the physical security of its nuclear
materials.[592] Professor
Gregory told our "Global Security: Afghanistan and Pakistan"
inquiry that, owing to the fear of attack from India, Pakistan
moved all the nuclear weapons infrastructure
to the north and west of Islamabad, so that the key centres are
at Wah, Taxila and so forth. There are one or two exceptions,
such as Sargodha, which is not in that area. But a substantial
proportion of Pakistan's nuclear weapons-related infrastructure
is to the north and west of Islamabad, which is of course close
to the tribal areas and [
] the instability.
While he said that the Pakistani authorities "have
in place very robust measures for the safety and security of their
nuclear weapons", Professor Gregory said that he did not
think that they "have completely secured their nuclear weapons
against the terrorist threat". He described the risk that
nuclear weapons or related infrastructure could be
blown up, or catch fire and could certainly create
a radiological hazard. If that sounds implausible, last year suicide
bombers attacked one of the entrance points to Wah cantonmenta
weapons production facility where part of nuclear weapons are
thought to be assembled.[593]
285. Russia is another country of concern as regards
the physical safety of nuclear materials. Baroness Williams told
us that "about 55% of the Russian nuclear installations have
been raised to what are called high security standards. That means
that 45% are not there yetthey have not got that high."[594]
286. We conclude that the physical security of
nuclear and radiological materials around the world is far from
assured, and should remain a prime Government concern. We recommend
that the Government should continue to give a high priority to
ensuring the security of nuclear and radiological materials, at
academic, industrial and military locations in the UK, and to
encourage its international partners to do likewise.
International action on the physical security
of nuclear materials
287. In addition to wider initiatives such as the
Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism (GICNT) and the
G8 Global Partnership, which we considered earlier in this chapter
and which have important physical security components, there are
a number of international initiatives aimed specifically at improving
the physical security of nuclear materials. Most of these are
delivered through the IAEA.
288. The IAEA set out recommendations for the physical
protection of nuclear materials in its Information Circular (INFCIRC)
225, which was first published in 1975 and has been revised subsequently.
A new revision is currently in progress. The FCO informed us that
"although many states are obliged under various Conventions
and Agreements to take [the INFCIRC 225 recommendations] into
account", they are not legally binding.
289. An instrument largely based on INFCIRC 225 which
is legally binding is the Convention on the Physical Protection
of Nuclear Material (CPPNM), which entered into force in 1987
and to which the UK is a State Party. However, the Convention
applies only "to civil nuclear material and only to the standards
to be met in the international transport of such material",[595]
and it does not provide for verification. In July 2005 an amendment
to the Convention was opened for ratification which would impose
a legal obligation to "establish and maintain a legislative
and regulatory framework to govern physical protection and to
designate an authority to implement the framework."[596]
The UK has not yet ratified the amendment, but ratification has
been enabled by passage of the Criminal Justice and Immigration
Act 2008, and the Government told us that it would be seeking
specific Parliamentary approval for ratification. The amendment
cannot come into force until two-thirds of the States Parties
to the original Convention have ratified it.[597]
290. We conclude that the legally-binding Convention
on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material is an important
and helpful measure, even though it covers only civil nuclear
material. We look forward to the Government taking the steps necessary
for UK ratification of the 2005 amendment strengthening the Convention.
We recommend that the Government should actively promote the negotiation
of legally-binding international instruments covering the physical
security of nuclear and radiological materials not currently covered
by the Convention.
291. The IAEA has brought the various strands of
its work on physical protection together in a Nuclear Security
Plan. Major activities carried out as part of the plan include:
the issuing of a range of guidance documents
on nuclear security beyond just INFCIRC 225 [
]; the holding
of training courses in nuclear security; encouraging the establishment
of Nuclear Security Support Centres in member states; the provision
of advisory services to states by the IAEA; the formulation of
Integrated Nuclear Security Support Plans for individual states
to help implement recommendations from the Agency's range of nuclear
security missions in a coherent way; and the development of the
Illicit Trafficking Database.[598]
A new Nuclear Security Plan will run from 2010 to
2013.
292. Funding for these activities comes from the
IAEA Nuclear Security Fund (NSF), which comprises voluntary contributions
outside the regular IAEA budget. These contributions totalled
£15,883,643 (17,758,000) in 2007. The UK was the third-largest
state donor in 2007, contributing around £2 million from
the Global Threat Reduction Programme.[599]
As we noted in Chapter 3, in his speech to the international nuclear
fuel cycle conference which the UK hosted in London in March 2009,
the Prime Minister announced that the UK would be doubling its
contribution to the NSF, to £4 million.[600]
The UK also contributes to the NSF through the EU.
293. We conclude that the funding provided for
international work on the physical security of nuclear material
through mechanisms such as the International Atomic Energy Agency's
Nuclear Security Fund (NSF) is vital. We welcome the Prime Minister's
announcement of a doubling of the UK's contribution to the NSF,
and we recommend that the UK should continue to provide strong
financial and practical support for this work.
294. The IAEA has developed a separate Code of Conduct
on the Safety and Security of Radioactive Sources which are particularly
vulnerable to being used as components of a 'dirty bomb'. The
Code is not legally binding, but the FCO told us that "States
have been urged to write to the IAEA Director General expressing
their support for it. 92 had done so as of 24 July 2008, including
the UK." The Code says that every state should be:
taking appropriate measures necessary to ensure
that radioactive sources are safely managed and securely protected;
having an effective national legislative and regulatory system;
establishing a national register of radioactive sources and ensuring
that any transfers are undertaken in a manner consistent with
the provisions of the Code.[601]
295. The IAEA has released Supplementary Guidance
to the Code which relates to the import and export of radioactive
sources. The FCO said that:
this is not legally binding but States have been
encouraged to notify the Director General of their intention to
support it, to designate a point of contact, and to send the IAEA
a completed version of the specimen self-assessment questionnaire
annexed to the Guidance. The UK has done all three.[602]
BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL MATERIALS
296. Many research institutions hold stocks of biological
and chemical materials which are of potential utility to terrorists.
In particular, a number of commentators have noted the importance
of biosecurity, but few countries have legislated specifically
in this area.[603]
In 2004, the UN High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change
recommended that a biosecurity protocol be negotiated.[604]
The US Commission on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism
concluded in 2008 that the US should "press for an international
conference of countries with major biotechnology industries to
promote biosecurity" and "conduct a global
assessment of biosecurity risks".[605]
Meanwhile, the Commission on National Security in the 21st Century
established by the Institute for Public Policy Research concluded
that, along with nuclear non-proliferation, global biosecurity
was one of the "two fundamentally important areas which require
multilateral cooperation."[606]
Biosecurity is one of the focuses of the Inter-sessional Work
Programme for 2007-2010 agreed at the Sixth Review Conference
of the BTWC.[607]
297. We conclude that, given the real risk that
terrorists may acquire and use chemical or biological weapons,
the security of biological and chemical materials is of paramount
concern. We therefore recommend that in its response to this Report,
the Government should set out the action that it is taking in
this area, including its efforts to secure international co-operation,
particularly to reduce biological and chemical security risks.
529 Cabinet Office, The National Security Strategy
of the United Kingdom, Cm 7291, March 2008, para 3.5; see
para 8. Back
530
HM Government, Pursue Prevent Protect Prepare: The United Kingdom's
Strategy for Countering International Terrorism, Cm 7547,
March 2009, p 7 Back
531
Ibid., p 127 Back
532
Ibid., p 56 Back
533
Q 89 Back
534
Q 229 Back
535
Q 230 Back
536
Ev 99 Back
537
Matthew Bunn, Securing the Bomb 2008 (Cambridge, Mass.
and Washington, D.C.: Project on Managing the Atom, Belfer Center
for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
and Nuclear Threat Initiative, November 2008) Back
538
Ev 174; see International Institute for Strategic Studies, Nuclear
Black Markets; Pakistan, A.Q.Khan and the rise of proliferation
networks (London, 2007). Back
539
25 February 2009, Q 45, HC 302-i, via www.parliament.uk/facom Back
540
Q 17 Back
541
25 February 2009, Q 45, HC 302-i, via www.parliament.uk/facom Back
542
14 May 2009, Q 232, HC 302-iv, via www.parliament.uk/facom Back
543
Q 98 Back
544
Q 98 Back
545
"Learning from the Cold War", The Economist,
21 July 2007 Back
546
Ken Berry, "Preventing Nuclear Terrorism", EastWest
Institute Policy Paper 2/2007 Back
547
The Guardian, 5 June 2007 Back
548
Paul Cornish, "The CBRN System, Assessing the threat of terrorist
use of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons
in the United Kingdom", Chatham House, February 2007, p v Back
549
Ev 99 Back
550
Q 58 Back
551
Ev 97 Back
552
"Bioterrorism: a mystery unravelled", The Economist,
9 August 2008 Back
553
Ev 102 Back
554
"Japanese leader of sarin gas cult to hang", The
Times, 28 February 2004 Back
555
Paul Cornish, "The CBRN System, Assessing the threat of terrorist
use of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons
in the United Kingdom", Chatham House, February 2007, p 6 Back
556
Ev 105; "Timeline: Recent Terror Alerts", Financial
Times, 10 August 2006 Back
557
Q 231 Back
558
Paul Cornish, "The CBRN System, Assessing the threat of terrorist
use of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons
in the United Kingdom", Chatham House, February 2007, p 7 Back
559
Ev 263 Back
560
See Institute for Public Policy Research, Interim Report of the
IPPR Commission on National Security in the 21st Century,
"Shared Destinies: security in a globalised world",
November 2008, p 14; "Mapping the Global Future", the
US National Intelligence Council's Report of its 2020 Project,
published in 2004; and the December 2008 Report of the Commission
on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism, a body established
in 2007 by the US Congress. Back
561
Q 56 Back
562
Ev 296 Back
563
Q 56 Back
564
"Statement by G8 Leaders: The G8 Global Partnership Against
the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction",
Kananaskis, 27 June 2002, via www.g8.utoronto.ca Back
565
Ev 174 [FCO]; FCO/DECC/MOD, Global Threat Reduction Programme
Sixth Annual Report 2008, DECC, February 2009 Back
566
FCO/DECC/MOD, Global Threat Reduction Programme Sixth Annual
Report 2008, DECC, February 2009, p 5 Back
567
FCO/DECC/MOD, Global Threat Reduction Programme Sixth Annual
Report 2008, DECC, February 2009, p 11 Back
568
See para 9 above. Back
569
Foreign Affairs Committee, Second Report of Session 2007-08, Global
Security: Russia, HC 51, para 336 Back
570
"Report on the G8 Global Partnership", Hokkaido G8 summit,
http://www.mofa.go.jp/policy/economy/summit/2008/doc/index.html Back
571
Ev 174 [FCO] Back
572
FCO/DECC/MOD, Global Threat Reduction Programme Sixth Annual
Report 2008, DECC, February 2009, p 53 Back
573
Foreign Affairs Committee, Tenth Report of Session 2007-08, Global
Security: Japan and Korea, HC 449, para 150 Back
574
FCO, Tenth Report of the Foreign Affairs Committee Session 2007-08,
Global Security: Japan and Korea, Response of the Secretary
of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, Cm 7534, January
2009, p 12 Back
575
Ev 176 [FCO] Back
576
Ev 176 [FCO] Back
577
Ev 176 [FCO] Back
578
Q 104 Back
579
Q 130 Back
580
Ev 299 Back
581
Ev 299 Back
582
Ev 188 Back
583
Ev 303 Back
584
Ev 187 Back
585
http://www-ns.iaea.org/security/itdb.htm, viewed on 29 March 2009 Back
586
Q 46 Back
587
Matthew Bunn, Securing the Bomb 2008 (Cambridge, Mass.
and Washington, D.C.: Project on Managing the Atom, Belfer Center
for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
and Nuclear Threat Initiative, November 2008), pp 3-4 Back
588
Q 4 Back
589
Q 9 Back
590
Q 10 Back
591
"So, Admiral, what have you got to say about the nuclear
submarine crash?", The Independent, 17 February 2009 Back
592
See paras 247-249 above. Back
593
25 February 2009, Q 44, HC 302-i, via www.parliament.uk/facom Back
594
Q 46 Back
595
Ev 188 [FCO] Back
596
Ev 188 [FCO] Back
597
Ev 188 [FCO] Back
598
Ev 188-189 [FCO] Back
599
Ev 294 [FCO], 303 [DECC] Back
600
Prime Minister Gordon Brown, speech on nuclear energy and proliferation,
given at the international conference on the nuclear fuel cycle,
"Securing Safe Access to Peaceful Power", London, 17
March 2009, transcript via www.number10.gov.uk; IAEA, "Nuclear
Security Fund receives key financial support", 27 March 2009,
via www.iaea.org Back
601
Ev 189 Back
602
Ev 189 Back
603
Roffey and Kuhlau, "Enhancing bio-security: the need for
a global strategy", SIPRI Yearbook 2008 Back
604
"A more secure world: our shared responsibility", Report
of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, UN,
A/59/565, December 2004 Back
605
Report of the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass
Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, December 2008, p xix Back
606
Institute for Public Policy Research, Interim Report of the IPPR
Commission on National Security in the 21st Century,
"Shared Destinies: security in a globalised world",
November 2008 Back
607
Ev 185; see paras 34, 204. Back
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