Arab League Initiative
195. As a further factor for "optimism",
Mr Blair identified the fact that "the desire to have the
issue resolved encompasses not just the American Administration,
but, in my view, Arab countries. [
] The Arab world wants
this resolved, and it is prepared to do what it can to get it
resolved".[434]
196. Mr Blair was referring to the renewed commitment
of the Arab League to its Initiative for Peace, which it initially
adopted in 2002, on the basis of a Saudi Arabian initiative. Under
the plan, broadly, the Arab League states would normalise their
relations with Israel, and Israel would withdraw to its 1967 borders
and a Palestinian state would be created. In our 2007 Report,
we concluded that that Arab Initiative was a "positive proposal
that deserve[d] serious consideration by all parties".[435]
The Arab League re-launched its initiative by writing to Barack
Obama in December 2008, while he was President-elect. As we discussed
in paragraphs 160-172 in the previous chapter, one factor prompting
increased activism among some Arab states in support of an Israeli-Palestinian
settlement may be their concern about Iran's rising regional influence.
197. Mr Rammell welcomed the fact that the Arab League
had renewed its initiative, and told us that the Government had
been "vocal" in encouraging it to do so.[436]
The Foreign Secretary has talked of the need for a "23-state
solution" to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, arguing that
all 22 states of the Arab League need to be involved, primarily
in order to increase the prize potentially on offer to Israel
in return for reaching a settlement.[437]
According to press reports, the possible specific Arab League
deal which is under discussion may include greater Israeli telecommunications
and civil aviation links with Arab states, in return for restarting
a peace process which includes the implementation of a settlement
freeze at an early stage.[438]
Among Arab leaders, King Abdullah of Jordan in particular is taking
a leading role in pursuing an Arab-Israeli deal along these lines.
A major regional Arab-Israeli peace conference in summer 2009
is one possibility that has been mooted.[439]
Nomi Bar-Yaacov told us that the capacity of the Arab Peace Initiative
to rally support in the Arab world was "critical".[440]
198. In addition to the challenges involved in agreeing
terms with Israel, the Arab League faces internal divisions, including
over its Peace Initiative. Broadly, the Arab League is split between
states such as Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia which have close
relations with the US and which are pushing the Initiative, and
Arab states which wish to remain closer to Iranprimarily
Qatar and to some extent Libya and Oman.[441]
Egyptian President Mubarak and Saudi King Abdullah boycotted a
summit which Qatar called during the Gaza conflict, partly because
Iranian President Ahmadinejad and Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal
were also invited.[442]
President Mubarak also stayed away from a further Arab summit
in Qatar at the end of March, although on this occasion Qatar
did not invite Iran.[443]
199. In the context of the linked politics of Israel-Palestine,
and Iran and the Arab world, one state with a crucial role is
Syria. Syria continues to be Iran's principal Arab ally and a
supporter of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Syria is
also a member of the Arab League. Recent months have seen a significant
effort by the British Government, and latterly by the new US Administration,
to develop ties to Damascus with the aim of encouraging it away
from its alliance with Tehran and into greater cooperation with
the Westover issues such as support for Hezbollah in Lebanon
and respect for Lebanese sovereigntyin return for the prospect
in particular of greater economic links. Bill Rammell told us,
with respect to Syria, that "there has been an opening up
and a willingness to look at alternative routes", although
he judged that "the jury is still out" as to "where
Syria will ultimately go".[444]
In late June 2009, the US announced that it was again to post
an Ambassador to Damascus, after a four-year gap which had been
instituted as a protest over Syria's suspected links to the assassination
of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.[445]
Meanwhile, among Arab states, Saudi Arabia and Jordan have also
been seeking to bring Syria out of its pro-Iranian relative isolation.[446]
200. We conclude
that the reinvigoration of the Arab Peace Initiative, and the
Initiative's promotion by members of the Quartet, are greatly
to be welcomed. We further conclude that the Government is correct
to support the Initiative.
Israeli position
201. We took all our evidence in the present inquiry
before the new Israeli government under Mr Netanyahu had put forward
a developed position on the central issues of the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict. Until June 2009, the most prominent aspects of his government's
position were its dispute with the US over settlements, to which
we referred in paragraph 144, and its failure explicitly to endorse
a two-state solution.
202. In a major speech at Bar-Ilan University on
14 June, Prime Minister Netanyahu presented a much fuller statement
of his government's position.[447]
He endorsed for the first time the prospect of a Palestinian state.
However, he made his future agreement to the creation of such
a state conditional on two matters:
- Israel's receipt of "ironclad"
guarantees about its own security, next to the putative Palestinian
state. Mr Netanyahu said that the territory under Palestinian
control must be demilitarised. He also said that the future Palestinian
state could not have an army or control of its airspace and would
not be able to conclude military pacts with third parties.
- Palestinian recognition of Israel as the Jewish
nation state. Mr Netanyahu made clear that he understood this
to mean that Palestinian refugees from the territory of Israel
as created in 1948 would have no right of return there.
Mr Netanyahu said explicitly that without these two
conditions being fulfilled, there was a risk that the Palestinian
state of the future would replicate contemporary Gaza, in becoming
"a terrorist base against the Jewish state". Mr Netanyahu's
speech thus seemed to confirm Mr Blair's diagnosis of the overriding
security concern which Israel has with respect to a possible Palestinian
state, and Israel's continuing scepticism about the ability of
such a state to assuage its concern. In his speech, Mr Netanyahu
also said that Jerusalem must remain undivided, something which
would preclude the eastern part of the city becoming the capital
of a Palestinian state. As we noted in paragraph 144, Mr Netanyahu
also said that Israel would not embark on new settlements in the
OPTs but that it would allow existing settlements' "natural
growth". On the basis of his position, Mr Netanyhau called
for the start of negotiations with the Palestinians "immediately
without preconditions".
203. President Obama was said to have welcomed Mr
Netanyahu's endorsement of the two-state goal.[448]
Both the Foreign Minister of the Czech Republic, the incumbent
EU Presidency country, and EU External Relations Commissioner
Benita Ferrero-Waldner said that Mr Netanyahu's position in this
respect was a "first step".[449]
In a Parliamentary answer, the FCO said that the Prime Minister
had spoken to Mr Netanyahu after the latter's speech in order
to:
make clear that his endorsement of the principle
of a two state solution and his willingness to engage in negotiations
without preconditions was a step in the right direction. But also
that more was needed on the issue of settlements: a complete freeze
in settlement construction, in line with Israel's Roadmap commitments.[450]
204. Palestinian Authority President Abbas said that
Mr Netanyahu's speech had "destroyed all initiatives and
expectations", "placed restrictions on all efforts to
achieve peace" and constituted "a clear challenge to
the Palestinian, Arab and American positions".[451]
Egyptian President Mubarak condemned the address as having "scuttled
the chance for peace".[452]
For his part, in a major speech on 25 June, Hamas leader Khaled
Meshaal said that Prime Minister Netanyahu was offering "merely
self-governance under the name of a country". He reiterated
that Hamas sought an end to settlements, a right of return for
Palestinian refugees and the establishment of Jerusalem as the
capital of the Palestinian state.[453]
He also stated a demand for "full [Palestinian] sovereignty
on the borders of 4 June 1967", something which has been
interpreted by some observers as a movement towards acceptance
of a two-state solution, as part of a Hamas shift in response
to President Obama's Cairo speech.[454]
Mr Meshaal said that that address represented "the first
step in the right direction toward a dialogue without conditions".[455]
205. Shortly before Mr Netanyahu's speech, we asked
Mr Blair whether he thought that there was a genuine desire on
the part of the Israeli government to move towards a two-state
solution. Mr Blair noted that the majority of Israelis were in
favour of this outcome. However, he said that Israel needed to
move from a "passive mode", of accepting that a Palestinian
state might be created, to an "active" one, of regarding
the creation of a Palestinian state as being in Israel's interest
and therefore something to be facilitated. Mr Blair said that
this move would "involve a profound shift in psychology".[456]
206. We conclude
that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's acceptance of the prospect
of a Palestinian state is a necessary condition of any two-state
settlement under his government and, as such, is to be welcomed.
We recommend that the Government should continue to press him
on other issues vital to progress towards a two-state outcome,
such as those concerning a freeze on settlements as a first step.
We recommend that in its response to this Report, the Government
should inform us of any discussions it has had about possible
international involvement in providing security assurances to
Israel in connection with the conclusion of a two-state settlement.
405 Q 242 Back
406
Major-General Giora Eiland, "The Future of the Two-State
Solution", Jerusalem Issue Brief, Vol 8 No 22, 17
February 2009 Back
407
For example, in March 2009 the US/Middle East Peace Project published
a report by a number of former senior US officials, including
former National Security Advisers Zbigniew Brzezinski and Brent
Scowcroft and former Quartet Envoy James Wolfensohn, which said
that "the next six to twelve months may well represent the
last chance for a fair, viable and lasting solution"; "A
Last Chance for a Two-state Israel-Palestine Agreement: a Bipartisan
Statement on US Middle East Peacemaking", March 2009, via
http://www.usmep.us/. In June, the report was endorsed by a group
of senior European figures including former German President Richard
von Weizsäcker, former Irish President Mary Robinson, former
Latvian President Vaira Vîíe-Freiberga, former premiers
of France, Germany, Italy and Spain and former European Commissioners
Chris Patten and Peter Sutherland; see "Europe must respond
to Obama on Middle East", The Guardian, 26 June 2009. Back
408
HC Deb, 24 February 2009, col 134 Back
409
Q 181; Q 148 [Mr Rammell] Back
410
Q 148 Back
411
Q 44 Back
412
Q 19 [Ms Bar-Yaacov] Back
413
Q 104 Back
414
Q 133 Back
415
Q 133 Back
416
Qq 104-105 Back
417
"Statement to the United Nations on Gaza (07/01/2009)",
via www.fco.gov.uk Back
418
Q 104 Back
419
Q 182 Back
420
Qq 176, 195 Back
421
Q 192 Back
422
Q 192 Back
423
Qq 161, 165, 176, 180 Back
424
Q 142 Back
425
Q 133 [Mr Rammell]; Q 188 [Mr Blair] Back
426
Q 161; see also Q 165. Back
427
Q 142 Back
428
Q 186 Back
429
"Remarks by the President on a New Beginning", Cairo
University, 4 June 2009, transcript via www.whitehouse.gov Back
430
Foreign Affairs Committee, Global Security: The Middle East,
para 67 Back
431
Qq 171, 180 Back
432
Q 180 Back
433
Q 162 Back
434
Q 186 Back
435
Foreign Affairs Committee, Global Security: The Middle East,
para 79 Back
436
Q 129 Back
437
For example, in his speech "Partnership in the Middle East,
with the Middle East", Abu Dhabi, 24 November 2008, via www.fco.gov.uk Back
438
"Arab states weigh up rewards for Israel", Financial
Times, 18 May 2009 Back
439
"King's ultimatum: peace now or it's war next year; Jordan's
leader emerges as key player in Obama's ambitious Middle East
plan", The Times, 11 May 2009 Back
440
Q 44 Back
441
"Regional rifts stymie Arab summit", BBC News,
30 March 2009, via www.bbc.co.uk/news Back
442
"Qatar's ambitions spark tensions across Middle East",
Los Angeles Times, 21 April 2009 Back
443
"Tiny island surrounded by tension in the Gulf", New
York Times, 30 March 2009 Back
444
Q 156 Back
445
"Obama hopes his new ambassador will revive Middle East peace
talks", The Times, 25 June 2009 Back
446
"Saudi brings Syria back into the fold", Financial
Times, 12 March 2009; "King's ultimatum: peace now or
it's war next year; Jordan's leader emerges as key player in Obama's
ambitious Middle East plan", The Times, 11 May 2009 Back
447
Speech at the Begin-Sadat Center at Bar-Ilan University, 14 June
2009, via www.pmo.gov.il Back
448
"Palestinians balk at Netanyahu's conditions for statehood;
Israeli leader endorses 2-state solution, but his caveats quickly
rejected", International Herald Tribune, 16 June 2009 Back
449
"EU-Israel meeting ends with no progress on 'upgrade'",
www.euobserver.com, 16 June 2009 Back
450
HC Deb, 23 June 2009, col 791W Back
451
"PA: Netanyahu has buried peace process", Jerusalem
Post, 15 June 2009 Back
452
"Arab leaders accuse Netanyahu of 'scuttling' peace hopes",
Financial Times, 16 June 2009 Back
453
"Hamas rejects Israel peace vision", BBC News,
26 June 2009, via www.bbc.co.uk/news Back
454
"Trying to find a new road to his lost home; in the 1990s,
Israeli agents tried to kill Khaled Meshaal with poison. But today,
the Palestinian exile seems to be leading the militant Hamas movement
towards moderation", The Globe and Mail, 4 July 2009 Back
455
"Hamas rejects Israel peace vision", BBC News,
26 June 2009, via www.bbc.co.uk/news Back
456
Q 198 Back