Email to the Committee Specialist from
Professor Shaun Gregory, Pakistan Security Research Unit, University
of Bradford
My answer to the final question of the day—what
can be done about the role of Pakistan?—was not entered
into the record because we ran out of time. Several members, including
the chair, asked if I could send my thoughts on this. This is
what follows:
We should not fool ourselves that there are any simple
levers that can be pulled to make Pakistan play a more constructive
role in tackling the Taliban and other militants and terrorists
on its side of the border, without which the situation in Afghanistan
cannot be stabilised. However there are some clear areas which
ought to be the focus of detailed policy attention in co-operation
with the United States and—where relevant—our other
partners and potential partners in the region:
(1) We must shift the focus of our energies from
the military in Pakistan to the civilian leadership and expand
our partners in Pakistan to include all those who can take Pakistan
forward: business, civil society, political parties, NGOs etc.
This must include some Islamist parties who eschew violence.
(2) We should shift the focus from military aid
to Pakistan to civilian aid and to development and economic, social
and political progress.
(3) We should ensure that any and all military
aid to Pakistan [which must continue, albeit at a lower level]
is accountable and subject to conditionality.
(4) We should reduce our dependence on Pakistan
[in terms of logistics, intel, overflights and so forth] in order
to enhance our leverage over the Pakistan Army/ISI.
(5) We should explore containment strategies
for the FATA which end the airstrikes, retask the Pakistan military,
apply downward pressure on arms trafficking and movement in and
out of the FATA, apply downward pressure on the extremist message
[disseminated through mosques, radio and madrassas], and seek
least-worst accommodations with tribal groups.
(6) We need to understand that Pakistan has legitimate
interests and concerns in Afghanistan and in the region more broadly
and that these concerns need to be listened to and addressed,
otherwise the paranoia of the Pakistan Army/ISI will continue
to be fed.
(7) Finally we need a regional process—with
Pakistan and Afghanistan jointly at the centre—to provide
a political framework for progress. The combination of Obama,
Clinton, Holbrooke and Petraeus, probably gives us our best shot
at such a process for a generation.
25 February 2009
|
