2 The scale of knife crime
6. We begin by examining data on knife offences,
injuries and possession to assess whether they justify public
perceptions of an increase in knife crime. In the following chapter,
we consider what the data tell us about the characteristics of
knife offenders and victims, particularly the extent to which
they involve our key subjects of interest, children and teenagers.
Sources of data
7. There are three main sources of data on different
aspects of illegal knife use: Home Office crime statistics in
various forms, National Health Service (NHS) hospital statistics
and a number of surveys with young people to determine the extent
of knife-carrying. The Ministry of Justice also publishes data
on knife possession. Analysing these data demands a cautious approach
because of some inherent limitations, as well as difficulties
in comparing one source against another owing to differences in
what is measured.
8. In terms of Home Office data, the Homicide Index
has been published annually since 1977 and contains details of
all cases of murder, manslaughter and infanticide that were recorded
in England and Wales over the course of the previous year. Given
the definitive nature of fatality and its likelihood of coming
to the attention of the police, we can presume that it is probably
the most complete source of data on those knife offences which
it covers. However, fatal stabbings comprises only a tiny minority
of knife offences and accurate data is not published until nine
months after the year end.
9. The British Crime Survey has, until recently,
been the main means by which the Home Office has measured the
use of knives in non-fatal violent crime. The survey records the
amount of crime experienced by adults over 16 years of age living
in private households in England and Wales. It includes a question
asking if the respondent has been a victim of a violent crime
over the previous 12 months and, if so, whether or not a knife
was involved. From the responses, researchers estimate the total
number of incidents likely to have taken place in England and
Wales. However, Dr Bob Golding, giving evidence in November 2008
on the basis of research he has carried out for the Policy Exchange
think tank, argued that it is difficult to obtain a complete picture
of knife offences from the British Crime Survey:
Whilst the survey is helpful it has some limitations
particularly in the context of the subject we are talking about
today: knife crime. Notably, the British Crime Survey does not
count the under-16s which from the research is one of our target
or problem populations. It does not collect data from people without
access to a home telephone or private residence and it is of limited
scale.[3]
(From January 2009, the survey has been extended
to include 10-16 year olds.)
10. Since July 2008, police forces have also been
required to publish statistics for recorded use of knives in the
most serious offences, namely attempted murder, wounding with
intent to do grievous bodily harm (GBH), wounding or inflicting
GBH, robbery of business property and robbery of personal property.
While this improves our understanding of knife use in violent
crime it is also unlikely to reveal its full extent, as it has
been estimated that only 50% of stab victims who present at hospital
actually report their assault to the police.[4]
This trend was confirmed anecdotally by a young man giving evidence
anonymously with The Prince's Trust, who said:
A couple of people that I have been involved
with have not even reported stuff, so even if they have been stabbed
or whatever they cannot be seen to be snitching. I do not know
whether the statistics are really picking up what is out there.[5]
11. Data from health agencies may therefore allow
for a more accurate assessment of stabbing trends.[6]
Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) contain information on patients
admitted to hospital who receive care provided by the NHS, including
their main diagnosis—recorded as 'Assault by a sharp object'
in the case of stab victims. The statistics have some caveats.
For one, they do not include assault injuries to individuals that
are dealt with solely in Accident and Emergency departments and
do not require admission to a hospital bed. Professor Brohi, a
trauma and vascular surgeon at the Royal London Hospital also
cautioned that, while he had not heard of victims being "treated
in back streets", "undoubtedly there are people who
are injured who do fine without going to hospital and therefore
may not need to go to hospital."[7]
Equally, the statistics will not include the majority of injuries
resulting in death, as a comparison of HES mortality data with
ONS mortality statistics in 2005 suggested that around 80% of
deaths caused by stabbing occurred before admission to hospital
took place.[8]
12. Finally, there are a number of self-report surveys
asking young people about their experience of knives. The largest
of these are the MORI Youth Surveys, commissioned by the Youth
Justice Board and carried out annually between 1999 and 2005 and
again in 2008 with 11-16 year olds in mainstream education and
excluded 11-17 year olds; and the Home Office's Offending and
Criminal Justice Survey carried out annually with 10-25 year olds
between 2003 and 2006. Frances Done, Chair of the Youth Justice
Board, told us "it is generally accepted that self-report
surveys are the most accurate way of finding out what is happening
on the ground in terms of offending".[9]
As well as giving an indication of incidence, they explore motivations.
13. The Ministry of Justice publishes convictions
for possessing a bladed instrument. This year it also published
data on the sentences awarded to those convicted of possessing
an offensive weapon. While these data provide some useful information
about levels of knife- carrying, it is difficult to assess whether
any increase or decrease reflects the trend in carrying or in
detection rates linked to police activity. Moreover, the sentencing
data cover all offensive weapons, rather than knives alone.
14. Statistical data about the use of knives in
violent offending are contained in the Homicide Index, the British
Crime Survey and police recorded crime. Hospital Episode Statistics
provide information about knife injuries resulting in a victim's
admittance to hospital. The Home Office Offending, Crime and Justice
Survey and MORI Youth Survey have provided information about levels
of knife-carrying amongst young people. We welcome the decision
to extend the British Crime Survey to under-16s and to publish
specific data on knives in police recorded crime as means of improving
our understanding of the scale of knife violence. However, limitations
remain that inhibit a fully accurate analysis, including poor
reporting rates.
Is knife crime going up or down?
Context
15. We attempted to ascertain the scale of knife
possession and use from the data sources listed above, as well
as anecdotal evidence from witnesses living and working in communities
affected by knife crime. We set out our findings below. While
attempting to assess any trend, it is worth bearing in mind overall
crime trends. Crime levels rose dramatically in the second half
of the twentieth century, peaking in 1995. Since that year, violent
crime measured by the British Crime Survey has fallen by 48%.[10]
However, some academics, such as Dr Marian FitzGerald, have argued
that official statistics have failed to pick up a growth in serious
violent crime.[11]
Figure 1: All violent crime, 1981-2007/08 BCS[12]
Fatal stabbings
16. The number of overall homicides increased gradually
but steadily during the 1980s and 1990s from 418 in 1977 to a
peak of 953 in 2002/03, before falling again to 723 in 2005/06.
Of these, homicides by sharp instrument rose from 135 in 1977
to 243 in 1995, fell to 197 the following year and then remained
relatively stable until rising to 261 in 2001/02 and then declining
again to 212 in 2005/06. In percentage terms, 33% of homicides
were caused by stabbing in 1977; this fell to 28% in 2000/01 and
then remained relatively stable. We were particularly interested
in what happened from 2006, the point at which 'knife crime' began
to grow in the public consciousness. Fatal stabbings did indeed
rise sharply between 2005/06 and 2006/07 - by 57 to 269 (35% of
all homicides). Between April 2007 and March 2008,
the most recent period for which data is available, the police
recorded 270 homicides involving a sharp instrument: the highest
total since the Homicide Index was introduced in 1977. This again
constituted 35% of all homicides.[13]
Figure 2: Homicide by apparent method of killing,
England and Wales, 1997/08-2007/08[14]
17. Between 1996 and 2005/06 fatal stabbings mirrored
overall homicide rates: the number of fatal stabbings rose sharply
before declining again from 2003, but the percentage of homicides
that involved a sharp instrument remained relatively stable. However,
since 2006 the overall homicide rate has remained relatively stable
but the number of knife homicides has increased—by a dramatic
26.9% in 2006/07—to reach 270 in 2007/08, the highest total
recorded since the Homicide Index was established in 1977.
Use of knives in non-fatal
violent crime
18. Findings from the British Crime Survey (BCS)
indicate that knives were used in 6%, or approximately 138,000,
of an estimated 2,164,000 non-fatal violent crimes in 2007/08.
This percentage has remained below 8% since 1995. The most common
weapons employed in violent crimes were 'hitting implements',
used in 7% of violent incidents but 76% of violent crimes did
not involve any weapons. Overall violent crime declined by 12%
from the previous year; therefore while the proportion of incidents
involving knives remained approximately the same, the total number
of incidents was lower than in previous years.[15]
19. Breaking the data down by crime type, we are
presented with a mixed picture. Firstly, we see a decline of almost
two-thirds in incidents of knife-enabled woundings between 1995
and 2003/04 (from 84,000 to 29,000), followed by a rise of almost
a third to 38,000 in 2007/08. As with homicide figures, the biggest
increase occurs between 2005/06 and 2006/07. Figures show that
incidents of robberies in which a knife was used also declined
by over two-thirds between 1995 and 2004/05 before rising sharply
between 2005/06 and 2006/07, but declining slightly again in 2007/08.
The use of knives in common assault declined by almost two-thirds
between 2006/07 and 2007/08. [16]
Figure 3: Violent incidents in which a knife was
used, British Crime Survey data[17]
However, as we discussed above, the accuracy of BCS
data is questionable. In particular, the number of robbery victims
interviewed for the survey is generally too low to provide robust
estimates of robberies for individual years. [18]
20. Police forces have only published data on knife
use in serious offences since July 2008; therefore, it is not
possible to establish long-term trends from these statistics.
The first published data, for April 2007-March 2008, showed 22,151
instances of use of a knife or a sharp instrument in attempted
murders, grievous bodily harm or robbery.[19]
21. It is difficult to draw firm conclusions from
Home Office data about levels of knife use in non-fatal violent
crime, partly because of the limitations of the source data and
partly because they do not indicate many clear trends. It appears
that overall knife violence recorded by the British Crime Survey
fell sharply between 1995 and 2003/04, in line with overall violent
crime, but rose again in 2006/07.
22. A study of Hospital Episode Statistics (HES)
data on patients admitted to NHS hospitals in England between
1 April 1997 and 31 March 2005 found that the number of admissions
for "assault by sharp object" increased by 30% over
the study period.[20]
Since then, the NHS has published data showing the figure continued
to rise from 5,072 in 2004/05 to 5,720 in 2006/07, before falling
slightly to 5,239 in 2007/08.[21]
23. The Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN)
collects data on patients who are admitted to hospital as a result
of serious injury from its member hospitals (about half of all
trauma-receiving hospitals in England and Wales) for more detailed
analysis. The Network's research director, Dr Fiona Lecky, presented
data to our Leeds seminar which demonstrated a sharp rise in the
proportion of serious injuries caused by knives:
Figure 4: Knife injuries as proportion of all
serious injuries 1994-2008[22]
These findings were supported by evidence from Professor
Karim Brohi regarding cases treated at the Royal London Hospital,
which treats one in four or five of all injuries sustained in
the capital:
As to knife crime, currently we see 23 severe
injuries a month. So far this year we have had 255 injuries and
project 278 up to the end of the year. That compares with 68 injuries
in 2003 when our database started ... One in three inpatients
is a knife victim, so ... of my dedicated trauma time one third
is spent on knife injuries.[23]
24. Hospital Episode Statistics show a big increase
in knife injuries since the mid-1990s, with the sharpest increase
occurring since 2006. This trend was supported by the professional
opinion of two senior medical practitioners to whom we spoke.
However, we note that the number of stab victims admitted to hospital
is far lower than the number of stab victims suggested by the
British Crime Survey. This may indicate that the majority of stab
wounds are minor. The increase in hospital admissions, however,
appears to indicate that serious stab wounds are becoming more
common.
Knife possession
25. The majority of detailed data about knife possession
relates to young people, in the form of self-report surveys. The
Youth Justice Board's 2008 MORI Youth Survey found that 31% of
11-16 year olds in mainstream education surveyed reported having
carried a weapon in the previous 12 months: the two most common
weapons reported were a penknife (17%) and a BB gun, a type of
airgun that fires small pellets (15%). 61% of excluded young people
admitted to carrying a weapon, including 54% who admitted to carrying
a knife.[24] The 2008
survey showed lower levels of knife-carrying for both groups than
the 2004 survey; however this was off-set by the increased numbers
of respondents who did not answer the question about knife-carrying.
The Chair of the Youth Justice Board, Frances Done, told us that
on the basis of these results:
The level of knife-carrying by young people,
either young people generally or those who have said that they
have offended—and this is knife-carrying at any time in
the last 12 months—is of a level that is obviously of serious
concern.[25]
26. The Home Office Offending, Crime and Justice
Survey has found significantly lower numbers of young people reporting
to have carried knives. The difference can be partially explained
by the survey methodology, the wider age range covered by the
OCJS and the fact that the MORI survey included knife-carrying
for legitimate purposes (32% of the young people who admitted
to carrying a knife said they did so "for hobbies, activities
or sports"). The 2006 survey found that 3% of 10-25 year
olds claimed to have carried a knife in the last 12 months. Of
those who reported to have carried a knife, 54% said they had
carried it "once or twice" with only 17% claiming to
have carried a knife "10 times or more."[26]
The Children's Commissioner's charity, 11 MILLION, took a representative
sample of 8-17 year olds in England and a sample of young people
who live in seven 'high risk' areas and found that only 4% of
12-17 year olds admitted to carrying a knife either now or in
the past, and for the majority carrying was an infrequent occurrence.[27]
27. While these findings indicate that knife-carrying
does not take place on a large scale across the country, there
is evidence from people living and working in some communities
that levels are much higher. 11 MILLION found that to 26% of young
people living in 'high risk' areas perceived knife crime to be
either a big or fairly big problem in their area, compared to
one in six young people nationally.[28]
One anonymous witness giving evidence with The Prince's Trust
told us "I would say I think it is definitely a problem that
is getting worse."[29]
On the basis of research with police officers and youth offending
teams, Policy Exchange's Gavin Lockhart argued "I think it
is becoming normal for some groups in poor communities to carry
a knife."[30]
28. Dr Golding quoted Ministry of Justice statistics
that showed a dramatic increase in knife possession detections
over the past decade:
The number of convictions for carrying a knife
between 1997 and 2006 has risen from 3,360 to 6,314. Arrests for
having an article with a blade or point on school premises has
increased by 500% over six years from 1999 to 2005.[31]
However, as we suggested earlier, this may indicate
greater police and school activity to detect knife-carrying rather
than purely an increase in levels of carrying.
29. Detective Chief Superintendent John Carnochan,
of the Scottish Violence Reduction Unit, noted the irrelevance
of official statistics for people living in affected communities.
He said:
I actually want to increase the amount of violence
that is reported to us … because right now only 50% of those
who turn up at an A&E department (and it is the same in England)
will report it to the police, so you are judging us on 50% knowledge,
so whether it goes up or down is an absolute irrelevance, it is
a measure of activity, because what will happen then, if you live
in an area where there is loads of violence and you see it outside
your front window, you will know someone who is in prison, you
will know someone who has been a victim, and the chief officer
stands up, or a politician, and says, "Relax; violence is
going down", and you when look out your front window you
know that it is not; it is not your experience.[32]
A community worker from Peckham who attended our
London seminar expressed a similar view, arguing that apparent
complacency about knives on the part of the Government and the
police would only serve to normalise knife-carrying.
30. The picture with regard to knife possession
is complicated. The 2008 MORI Youth Survey indicated that 31%
of 11-16 year olds in mainstream education and 61% of excluded
young people had carried a knife at some point over the course
of the previous year; however the 2006 Home Office Offending,
Crime and Justice Survey found that only 3% of 10-25 year olds
did. This discrepancy cannot be explained by the time lag between
the surveys, as the numbers reporting carrying a knife actually
decreased between the 2005 and 2008 MORI Surveys. It can partly
be explained by the fact that the MORI survey includes legitimate
carrying and the OCJS covers a wider age range. Anecdotal evidence
indicated that in certain areas levels of knife-carrying have
risen to the extent that carrying a knife has almost become "normal".
We therefore concluded that, although there is no definitive evidence
of the extent of knife-carrying nationally, in parts of England
and Wales it was at a level to be of significant concern.
Impact of the Tackling Knives
Action Programme
31. The Government has responded to concerns about
knife crime with the Tackling Knives Action Programme (TKAP).
In June 2008 it pledged £5m additional funding for the ten
police force areas in England and Wales judged to be most affected
by knife crime—Essex, Greater Manchester, Lancashire, Merseyside,
Metropolitan, Nottinghamshire, South Wales, Thames Valley, West
Midlands and West Yorkshire—to support:
- Increased use of searches,
in targeted and intelligence-led operations, to complement new
portable knife arches and search wands;
- Fast-tracking the 'knife referral project' in
which all young people convicted of a knife offence are taught
the consequences of knife crime; and
- Home visits and letters to parents of young people
known to carry weapons.
32. In December 2008 the Government announced a further
£3.4 million for investment in after-school patrols and Safer
Schools Partnerships, whereby police officers are based in schools;
and an extra 7000 places for young people in 'positive activities'
on Friday and Saturday nights in TKAP areas. TKAP was originally
funded until March 2009 but has been extended for a further year
and to a further two areas: Hampshire and Kent.[33]
33. We attempted to assess whether this had had any
impact on crime levels. Deputy Assistant Commissioner Hitchcock
, who was appointed to lead TKAP until his move to the National
Policing Improvement Agency in April 2009, told us in January
2009 that the success of the programme should become evident in
statistics for the period October-December 2008:
That will be the quarter when you will start
to see the programme has had a significant impact and there has
been a significant improvement.[34]
The figures for this period have since been published.
Comparisons of quarterly statistics for April-June 2008, July-September
2008 and October-December 2008 show no clear trends for knife-enabled
attempted murder, robbery, threats to kills, actual bodily harm
and grievous bodily harm, rape and sexual assault, although the
overall number of knife-enabled violent offences declined slightly
from 9,608 in April-June to 9,400 in October-December.[35]
34. Provisional HES data for 2008 (which should be
treated with caution because of its provisional nature) appear
to show a decrease of 8.43% for the year during which TKAP was
established: 4,899 admissions recorded between December 2007 and
November 2008 compared with 5,350 admissions between December
2006 and November 2007.[36]
Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State at the Home Office, Alan
Campbell MP, told us:
Recent provisional figures produced by the Department
of Health that showed in the first period of the programme from
June to November of last year that the fall in admissions to accident
and emergency of the target group of individuals, 13 to 19 year
olds, with reported stab wounds had fallen by 31%. I think if
you compare that to the figures for the non-TKAP areas, which
is 18%, we can begin to draw conclusions about the success of
some of the work that has been done.[37]
We explore TKAP tactics in more detail in the relevant
chapter.
35. The Government's Tackling Knives Action Programme
has been in operation for less than a year, therefore it is difficult
to evaluate its success. It does not appear to have had a significant
effect on reducing police recorded crime, although there have
been signs of a notable reduction in hospital admissions in Tacking
Knives Action Programme areas.
3 Q 1 Back
4
Q 202 [DCS Carnochan] Back
5
Q 272 Back
6
Roy Maxwell, Caroline Trotter, Julia Verne, Paul Brown and David
Gunnell, "Trends in admissions to hospital involving an assault
using a knife or other sharp instrument, England, 1997-2005",
Journal of Public Health, Vol 29, No. 2 (2007), pp 186-7 Back
7
Q 82 Back
8
Roy Maxwell, Caroline Trotter, Julia Verne, Paul Brown and David
Gunnell, "Trends in admissions to hospital involving an assault
using a knife or other sharp instrument, England, 1997-2005",
Journal of Public Health, Vol 29, No 2 (2007), p 188 Back
9
Q 163 Back
10
Home Office, Crime in England and Wales 2007/08: Findings from
the British Crime Survey and police recorded crime, July 2008,
p 59 Back
11
Ev 163 Back
12
Home Office, Crime in England and Wales 2007/08: Findings from
the British Crime Survey and police recorded crime, July 2008,
p 62. "Ints" refers to interviews conducted during that
year. Back
13
Home Office, Homicides, Firearm Offences and Intimate Violence
2007/08: Supplementary Volume 2 to Crime in England and Wales
2007/08, January 2009 Back
14
Ibid, extracted from Table 1.03 Back
15
Home Office, Crime in England and Wales 2007/08: Findings from
the British Crime Survey and police recorded crime, July 2008,
pp 73, 21 Back
16
Knife crime statistics, Standard Note SN/SG/4304, House
of Commons Library, March 2009, pp 9-10 Back
17
Ibid, adapted from Table 3 Back
18
Ibid, p 10 Back
19
Home Office, Crime in England and Wales 2007/08: Findings from
the British Crime Survey and police recorded crime, July 2008,
p 75 Back
20
Roy Maxwell, Caroline Trotter, Julia Verne, Paul Brown and David
Gunnell, "Trends in admissions to hospital involving an assault
using a knife or other sharp instrument, England, 1997-2005",
Journal of Public Health, Vol 29, No 2 (2007), p 187 Back
21
Knife crime statistics, Standard Note SN/SG/4304, House
of Commons Library, March 2009, p 13 Back
22
Ev 193 [Trauma and Audit Research Network] Back
23
Qq 51, 62-3 Back
24
Youth Justice Board, MORI Youth Survey 2008: Young people in
mainstream education, February 2009, p 46; Youth Justice Board,
MORI Youth Survey 2008: Young people in Pupil Referral Units,
February 2009, p 50 Back
25
Q 163 Back
26
Home Office, Young people and crime: findings from the 2006
Offending, Crime and Justice Survey, July 2008, p 22 Back
27
11 MILLION/YouGov, Solutions to gun and knife crime, March
2009, Summary, p 2 Back
28
Ibid Back
29
Q 268 Back
30
Q 40 Back
31
Q 1 Back
32
Q 202 Back
33
"Tough new sanctions to tackle knife crime", Home Office
press release, 5 June 2008; "Tackling knives action plan,
six months on", Home Office press release, 11 December 2008;
"Clamping down on serious youth violence", Home Office
press release, 11 March 2009 Back
34
Q 96 Back
35
Home Office, Crime in England and Wales: Quarterly Update to
December 2008, April 2009, p 11 Back
36
NHS figures, cited in "Knife hospital admissions down 8%",
BBC News Online, 12 March 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk Back
37
Q 535 Back
|
