Examination of Witnesses (Question Numbers
1-19)
DR BOB
GOLDING AND
MR GAVIN
LOCKHART
25 NOVEMBER 2008
Q1 Chairman: I commence the first formal
session of the knife crime inquiry. We started last week with
a seminar in Stockwell where we met a number of stakeholders.
Dr Golding and Mr Lockhart, I am very pleased to see you. I refer
all those present to the register in which the interests of Members
of this Committee are noted. Perhaps I may start with a question
to both of you. What do you think is the scale of knife crime
in the United Kingdom? Do you believe there is an exaggeration
on the part of the press? Are the perceptions of the public what
the statistics reveal?
Dr Golding: First, thank you for
inviting us and allowing us to give evidence this morning. We
are very grateful for the opportunity. I suspect Members will
be fairly familiar with the situation in relation to police recorded
crime and the indications that are often used in society to suggest
that all crime has reduced. I believe it was last said that it
was down by 8%. We believe that that gives a misleading picture.
It has been long known that recorded crime statistics suffer from
under-reporting and non-reporting and there lies the rationale
some time ago for the introduction of the British Crime Survey.
Whilst that survey is helpful it has some limitations particularly
in the context of the subject we are talking about today: knife
crime. Notably, the British Crime Survey does not count the under-16s
which from the research is one of our target or problem populations.
It does not collect data from people without access to a home,
telephone or private residence and it is of limited scale. Having
said that, there are other sources one can look at which are perhaps
a little more helpful to get a sense of the scale and nature of
knife crime. One of them is what we call hospital episode statistics.
In simple terms what we are talking about here is the number of
people admitted to hospital following an assault that involves
a sharp instrument. We know very clearly that certainly between
1997 and 2005 that increased significantly by 30%. It is hardly
surprising that 42% of those sorts of admissions took place over
a weekend. But that is not the only source we can look at to get
a real sense of what is going on out there. There are very helpful
self-report studies and for brevity this morning I cite just one
or two. For the Youth Justice Board the MORI survey is very helpful.
That surveyed about 5,000 school children between the ages of
11 and 16. That very clearly indicated a steady rise in the proportion
of youths carrying knives such that in 2002 20% of school children
interviewed said they had carried knives at some point in the
previous 12 months; by 2005 that had gone up to 32%. There are
some recorded crime data that one might look at to give an indication
of what is going on. I would cite homicide as an example. Whilst
one might have reservations about the under-reporting or non-reporting
of some knife incidents or threats with a knife for obvious reasons
homicide is more likely than not to figure in statistics. We know
there has been an increase in knife homicides from about 200 in
1997 to 258 in 2007. You may suggest that what I am about to say
is more a reflection of police activity than the actuality. Nonetheless,
we believe it is indicative. The number of convictions for carrying
a knife between 1997 and 2006 has risen from 3,360 to 6,314. Arrests
for having an article with a blade or point on school premises
has increased by 500% over six years from 1999 to 2005. Taken
together we believe that there is cause for concern. We take the
point that there is perhaps a tendency for the media to exaggerate
the headline. Nonetheless, we believe that on these data there
is cause for concern.
Mr Lockhart: I agree with all
that Dr Golding has said. Policy Exchange's own work in surveying
police officers shows that eight out of 10 constables across five
police areas thought that knife crime was a greater problem today
than five years ago. We also looked at youth offending teams.
Six out of 10 team managers believed they had seen an increase
in knife crime in the populations they dealt with.
Q2 Chairman: How much of this is
alcohol-related?
Mr Lockhart: As Dr Golding said,
the hospital episode statistics suggest a strong link between
knife crime and the night time economy given that 42% of knife
stabbings occur over a weekend. Our view is that it has a link
to alcohol.
Q3 Chairman: Of course knives have
been around for a long time, but are you saying to the Committee
that there has been a marked increase and we should be concerned
about it?
Mr Lockhart: That is exactly what
we are saying. The real picture is probably neither that painted
by the media nor the crime statistics; it is probably somewhere
in the middle, but publicly available figures suggest that it
is a bigger issue than it was five years ago.
Dr Golding: To elaborate briefly,
there is a danger of looking at knife crime in isolation and out
of context of the overall picture of serious violence. For want
of a better expression, it is a tactic used by those who are minded
to engage in serious violence. One of the issues that may be worth
bringing to the Committee's attention is the relationship with
gangs and gang membership. The information we have is that certainly
in England and Wales there is a proliferation of gangs, so to
that extent there is a qualitative change. The information with
which we have been provided by senior police sources is that all
major conurbations have at least one example of a long-standing
violent gang whose motivation—this is an interesting change—is
centred on turf, territorial supremacy and the notion of respect.
The geographical reach of some of these gangs varies quite a lot
as reported to us. In fairness, the vast majority impact upon
and operate within their own localities, but there are a number
with a wider reach across force boundaries.
Q4 Mr Winnick: Dr Golding, I am sure
you will remember that amongst the crimes committed was that involving
a 31 year-old lawyer, Mr Price, who was murdered on 12 January
2006. The muggers asked him for his valuables and apparently he
put up some kind of fight and was murdered. Arising out of that,
the British Transport Police carried out Operation Shield, a survey
of knifepoint robberies, and one of its findings—I quote
from the brief we received from them—was that just over
75% of offenders committing such robberies in the London area
were aged between 13 and 25, with the peak age being between 16
and 21 years. Clearly, a number of these offenders are under 20
and in some cases under 15. Does that come as any surprise to
you?
Dr Golding: Not at all. One of
the issues reported to us is the increasing youth of some of the
people who engage in this type of criminality. The BTP survey
that you quote is very much in accord with some of the findings
revealed by our research.
Q5 Mr Winnick: From your experience
as a former senior police officer would you say that in many cases
the people who commit these crimes, even murder in the example
I just quoted, come from homes where there is no sort of discipline
and parental control is either absent or very weak? That is hardly
an excuse—far from it—but would that be a stereotype?
Dr Golding: No. There is a lot
of research both here and in North America on so-called risk factors
in relation to those with the propensity to commit this sort of
crime. Unless you press me I will not give a long list but some
of these are not rocket science. We are talking about social deprivation,
at-risk communities, single parents, poor parenting and poor educational
achievement.
Q6 Mr Winnick: And school absenteeism?
Dr Golding: That emerges time
and again as a big issue.
Q7 Bob Russell: Dr Golding, you gave
a very extensive and wide-ranging response to the Chairman's opening
question. To lead on from that, do the crime statistics you read
out reflect your experience as a police officer and that of other
officers? You have told us about now, but how does it compare
with when you were a serving police officer?
Dr Golding: At that time—I
do not want to appear to be too much like Life on Mars
but it is not that long ago—a lot of attention was paid,
as I suspect is true now, by me and others to recorded crime statistics.
There were reasons for that. It was certainly part of the performance
management regime under which we then operated. It had a juxtaposition,
if you will, with some of the things on which we would have liked
to focus our attention. The situation has developed in policing
terms because that is not one's only source of information on
the nature and scale of the problem. Members may be aware of the
development of the national intelligence model which fundamentally
required, as it does now, the best possible information one could
get to inform policy and action; that is, intelligence from all
sources, not just the police but other agencies, for example accident
and emergency departments—I have already quoted hospital
statistics—education and others. One can get a better picture
and strategic and tactical assessment of the scale of the problem
if one uses all the information available. I believe that police
forces try to do that, but it is very difficult with the focus
often upon performance management, the media and the recorded
crime statistics.
Q8 Bob Russell: I am sure you are
still in conversation with serving police officers, so what is
the difference in the experience of officers between the time
you were serving and today with the knife crime culture? Is it
the same or worse, and to what extent does it now have greater
emphasis in the experience of a serving officer today in contrast
to when you were a humble police constable?
Dr Golding: From my experience
and that of colleagues with whom I am still in contact, perhaps
the context and nature of the problem is different from a few
years ago. I need to explain that a little. Chairman, I look to
you if I stray into other areas that you want to discuss.
Q9 Chairman: Look to me if you go
on for too long. Make it as brief as possible.
Dr Golding: The context is gangs
and the prevalence of youth in a way that was never the case before.
Q10 Bob Russell: So, it has changed?
Dr Golding: Yes.
Q11 Ms Buck: I think you are absolutely
right to guide us away from seeing knife crime in isolation; it
has to be contextualised. Perhaps you would focus for a moment
on the weapons themselves. Operation Blunt has been an important
component and has taken a number of weapons off the streets, but
statistically the number of them sounds quite small. My local
police in London have taken part in that and reported finding
very few weapons as a result of their stops. In the community
people will tell you that if you go down to the canal towpath
or into the tower blocks you will find weapons concealed in sand
buckets and other places. What do you think is going on in terms
of the weapons themselves? From where do people get them? How
are weapons being handled? Why is it that weapons are not being
found on people? Does that tell us something about where we should
be directing our efforts to make sure we do not miss a trick?
Dr Golding: If I may refer to
a bit of research and then perhaps use some professional judgment,
kitchen knives constitute about 10% of the knives that are used
and found which is interesting in terms of the received wisdom
that people go to the kitchen and get a weapon. A significant
proportion are flick knives and penknives.
Q12 Chairman: Obtainable from where—shops?
Dr Golding: Flick knives are illegal,
so you are looking at illegal sources such as importation and
so on. Of course penknives are readily available. Interestingly,
a significant proportion—20% I believe—is described
as "other" which would mean other illegal weapons, sharp
instruments, gravity knives et cetera. That is an interesting
mix of the nature. You referred specifically to Operation Blunt.
I have mentioned the organised gang culture involved. Applying
logic, intellect et cetera, the hiding of knives is a particular
tactic in response to stop and search so people in possession
of them do not get caught in flagrante delicto and what
you will. One must have a care not to underestimate the criminal
skills and abilities of some of the people with whom we are dealing.
Q13 Ms Buck: What is the balance
between concentrating on the weapons themselves—finding
them or stopping the supply and purchase of them—and dealing
with the underlying causes of violence and gang behaviour?
Mr Lockhart: As Dr Golding said,
10% of knives found on young people are kitchen knives but there
are 22 million households in England and Wales all of which have
at least one knife, so to focus on reducing the supply of these
weapons is probably not the most effective method. Operation Blunt
is a very good signpost to say that the police are focusing on
it in your constituency and elsewhere, but the view of Policy
Exchange is that we must focus on the underlying factors: reducing
demand and helping young people feel safe. What we have found
in our research is that many of the young people questioned do
not feel that the police can keep them safe, and 85% of 14 to
17 year-olds say that they carry a knife because of the protection
that they believe it affords them. Our view—I am not sure
Dr Golding agrees—is that focusing on reducing demand is
absolutely key.
Q14 Mr Brake: Mr Lockhart, are you
able to identify someone who says that he carries it for his own
safety because that is what you want to hear versus someone who
is genuinely carrying it for protection?
Mr Lockhart: That statistic came
from the Home Office survey, so I cannot comment. There may be
bravado in any of these self-reported surveys and that is one
of their weaknesses.
Q15 Mr Brake: That may be bravado,
but equally there will be people who tell you what you want to
hear. They probably believe it is safer to say that they are carrying
it for their own safety rather than that they want to use it to
attack someone round the corner?
Mr Lockhart: I am sure that is
true.
Dr Golding: It is entirely true.
I do not suggest that you rely entirely on one source of evidence
like self-report studies. I think we need to look at it in the
round.
Q16 Mr Streeter: What do your researches
tell you about the relationship between gun crime and knife crime?
You touched on this in terms of contextualising it. What do both
of you say about the link?
Dr Golding: At the outset I was
very keen to contextualise it and try to encourage members to
think of the knife as a tactic in pursuit of serious violence,
the development of gangs and so on. We have done some significant
pieces of work in the USA and Canada where the situation is quite
different. The distinction appears to be twofold: the ready availability
of guns and therefore the ability to effect serious violence through
that medium rather than through knives. Comparing North America
and what is happening here, knife crime appears to be, dare I
say, very British.
Mr Lockhart: The risk factors
for gang membership are very similar to those for people seen
to be carrying knives. To follow up Dr Golding's point about the
level of violence in the US and the UK, for every 100,000 young
people in the US there are 11 homicides; in the UK the comparable
figure is less than one. We are still a long way from the level
of violence in the United States, although as Dr Golding said
if gang membership proliferates we may get closer to the US level.
Q17 Bob Russell: Dr Golding, it is
my understanding that knife crime in the UK is four times that
of gun crime, certainly in terms of fatalities.
Dr Golding: Yes.
Q18 Bob Russell: What is the figure
in the United States?
Mr Lockhart: We do not have those
figures.
Q19 Chairman: Could you send them
to the Committee?
Dr Golding: We would be delighted
to do so.[1]
1
1 1 Percentage of homicides involving fire arms in
England and Wales 8.8%; in the U.S. 68%. Percentage of homicides
involving knives/cutting instruments in England and Wales 34.2%;
in the U.S. 12.1%. Back
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