Written evidence submitted by International
Alert
SUMMARY
1. This submission relates to the extent
to which climate change adaptation is integrated into DfID's development
policies, which is the second listed area of interest to the Committee
in the Inquiry on Sustainable Development in a Changing Climate.
Our main points are that:
2. Most of the countries receiving DfID aid are
experiencing climate change already, and in the majority of cases
this has significantly raised the risk of violent conflict.
3. DfID has made recent strides towards
addressing climate change but there remains much to be done both
to integrate the response that those countries facing the double-headed
risk of climate change and violent conflict into development policies
and to give this work sufficient priority.
4. If development policies of donor countries,
including the UK, do not sufficiently integrate climate change
adaptation or give it the priority it warrants, then violent conflict
will almost inevitably undermine any progress towards either the
Millennium Development Goals or their successors. This is not
currently happening.
5. New development policies are urgently
required which address the key consequences of climate change
in developing countries, which are:
6. Political instability Weak governance
structures underlie the problem of vulnerability to the impact
of climate change. Weak governance is one of the key links in
the chain of the consequences that flow from climate change. Climate
change will put increased pressure on basic state functions such
as the provision of health care and the guarantee of food security.
Failed states, fragile states and states in transition, where
such institutions either do not exist or are already unable to
provide for the basic needs of their citizens are particularly
at risk.
7. Economic weakness Economic instability
will leave communities highly vulnerable, both to sudden environmental
shocks and slow erosion of their livelihood security. The socio-political
impacts of climate change will affect poor countries more than
further developed states. Poorer countries, which tend to be agrarian
states, will be far more susceptible to falling crop yields, extreme
weather events and migratory movements. In poorer countries there
is no insurance, either private or state based, against the effects
of crop failure. These impacts of climate change will hinder economic
development and the lack of economic development hinders the ability
to adapt to climate change. Empirical studies show that poor countries
facing additional pressure are more prone to conflict. Climate
change can thus increase obstacles to economic development, worsening
poverty and thereby increasing the risk of violent conflict in
these states.
8. Food insecurity In many areas, the physical
effects and the socio-political consequences of climate change
will combine to have a profound and destabilising effect on ordinary
people's daily lives by reducing food security. The problem here
is not simply food shortages but uncertainty of food supply.
9. This may be the result of losing arable
land to desert and of shorter growing seasons but can equally
be caused by changes in the food supply chain, such as the loss
of roads through flooding (and in other places the loss of rivers
through persistent drought). Political instability and violent
conflict also have an effect on food security. Humanitarian assistance
can temporarily fill in when there are food shortages but cannot
address the underlying problem of lack of food security—and
it is only when food security is restored that people can feel
safe. In the absence of food security, conflict and migration
are almost inevitable consequences.
10. Demographic changes—migration
and urbanisation Demographic changes always entail a change in
power systems and resource allocation. Climate-change related
movements of people will place strain on host communities that
already have scarce resources, whether because of population growth,
government policy or as an effect of climate change itself. In
such circumstances, there is a higher risk of violent conflict.
Some of the world's mega-cities are on the coast and are themselves
at risk over time from rising sea levels. The combination of population
growth, inward migration, declining water supply, other basic
shortages and rising sea levels in a city of 15-20 million or
more inhabitants adds up to a challenge with which even the most
effective city and national government would find hard to cope.
Where governance is poor, a social disaster seems close to inevitable.
FACTUAL INFORMATION
1. Climate change has led to an increased
risk of armed conflict in 46 countries with a total population
of 2.7 billion people.
2. There is a high risk of instability as a result
of climate change in a further 56 countries with a total population
of 1.2 billion.
RECOMMENDATIONS TO
THE COMMITTEE
1. Move the issue of conflict and climate
change higher up the domestic and international political agenda.
DfID Ministers, and parliamentary colleagues from all parties
have a crucial role to play in achieving this.
2. Support research on the indirect consequences
of climate change, particularly on the likely social and political
consequences in specific countries, regions and localities. DfID
has already commissioned some pilot work; this must be the start
of a far greater engagement leading ultimately to the full integration
of climate change adaptation with the thrust of the UK's development
agenda.
3. Prioritise adaptation over mitigation
measures in fragile states and ensure that adaptation addresses
the social, political and economic as well as the natural consequences
of climate change. In many developing countries. While a low carbon
economy is ultimately important in low income, poorly governed
states, the near-term risk is being overwhelmed by the social
as well as the natural consequences of climate change.
4. Invest in good governance for climate
change. Developing competence on adaptation needs to be treated
as part of good governance everywhere. This means investing in
capacity of developing countries to manage adaptation effectively.
5. Prepare to manage migration. Research
identifying likely migration flows can help identify both migrant
and host communities where dialogue should be started early to
help manage the process. This is a crucial factor that should
be integrated into development policies.
6. Ensure National Adaptation Plans of Action
are conflict-sensitive. NAPAs should take account of a state's
socio-political and economic context and conflict dynamics as
part of the policy making process to ensure they are genuinely
tailor made to the context. This is not currently the case.
7. Climate-proof peacebuilding and development.
Peacebuilding and development strategies should include adaptation
to climate change and make explicit how activities on these three
interconnected strands strengthen one another. This is not currently
the case.
8. Engage the private sector. Guidelines
are needed to help companies identify how their core commercial
operations can support adaptation. Governments have a vital role
to play in doing this.
9. Link together international frameworks
of action. Greater efforts are needed to link the variety of separate
international approaches with the related issues of peacebuilding,
development, adaptation and disaster management. DfID can and
should play a lead role in forging this international consensus.
ABOUT INTERNATIONAL
ALERT
1. International Alert is an independent
peacebuilding organisation that has worked for over 20 years to
lay the foundations for lasting peace and security in communities
affected by violent conflict. Our multifaceted approach focuses
both in and across various regions; aiming to shape policies and
practices that affect peacebuilding; and helping build skills
and capacity through training. Our regional work is based in the
African Great Lakes, West Africa, the South Caucasus, Nepal, Sri
Lanka and the Philippines. Our thematic projects work at local,
regional and international levels, focusing on cross-cutting issues
critical to building sustainable peace. These include business
and economy, gender, governance, aid, security and justice. We
are one of the world's leading peacebuilding NGOs with an estimated
income of £8.4 million in 2008 and more than 120 staff based
in London and our 11 field offices. International Alert is grateful
for the support of our core donors: Irish Aid (Department of Foreign
Affairs Ireland); Danida (Danish International Development Agency);
DFID (UK Department for International Development); The Netherlands
Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Sida (Swedish International Development
Cooperation Agency); and SDC (Swiss Agency for Development and
Cooperation).
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