Written evidence submitted by Saferworld
INTRODUCTION
1. The International Development Committee's
inquiry announcement states that it will "consider how the
UK Government can best promote development which is sustainable
and lifts people out of poverty and which promotes effective adaptation
strategies in developing countries".
2. This submission will make the case that for
truly sustainable development, which most effectively lifts people
out of poverty, the UK Government must promote development—and,
here specifically, climate change adaptation policy—which
is sensitive to the particular socio-political realities of the
context in which it takes place. Consequently, it will focus on
addressing two of the consultation themes:
3. Although this submission will look at
DFID's role globally, specific lessons will be drawn from some
of Saferworld's recent research into the links between climate
change, insecurity, migration and conflict in Bangladesh. [This
research is unpublished at the time of writing but will be published
as a case study example of the impact of climate change on security
and conflict in early 2009.]
The submission will look at:
— What is needed for sustainable development?
— The lessons to be learnt from Saferworld's
experiences in Bangladesh.
— DFID's existing commitments around
conflict and conflict sensitivity, and the extent to which climate
change adaptation is integrated with them.
— Specific recommendations for how
the UK Government can best promote effective adaptation strategies
in developing countries.
What is needed for sustainable development?
4. It is right to say that environmental
sustainability is essential for the achievement of the Millennium
Development Goals, but it is only one aspect of what will make
for truly sustainable development—and not the only area
on which climate change adaptation policies will have an impact.
5. Violent conflict undermines development and,
in its 2006 White Paper, Eliminating world poverty: Making
governance work for the poor, DFID acknowledged that insecurity
and violent conflict keep people poor, noting that "violent
conflict reverses economic growth, causes hunger, destroys roads,
schools and clinics and forces people to flee across borders".
Thus, they concluded that "tackling violent conflict and
its underlying causes is essential if we are to make progress
in the fight against global poverty".[55]
6. However, there is also a growing recognition
that development activities—if poorly designed or implemented—may
themselves be a cause of conflict. Subsequently, DFID's 2006 paper
Preventing Violent Conflict suggested that its work should
"take account of the impact our aid might have in increasing
or reducing the chances of violence".
7. And so, if violent conflict has such
a corrosive effect on development gains, and development itself
may inadvertently contribute to this violence, then for development
to be truly sustainable it must ensure that, at the very least,
it has the minimum negative impact on conflict and, at best, actually
goes some way to addressing the root causes underlying conflict.
8. There are of course many issues that
will be necessary to address in order to achieve truly sustainable
development, and conflict is only one of them. But its detrimental
effect on wider development (not to mention immediate human tragedy)
makes it an extremely important one. If the UK Government's approach
to sustainable development is to be most effective—in terms
of helping lift people out of poverty—then it must, at the
very least, "do no harm" in terms of its impact on the
chances for violent conflict. And if it is to be coherent, then
it must ensure that this concern to be "conflict-sensitive"
runs through all of its programming, including the strategies
it promotes to help countries adapt to climate change.
9. Lastly, and as Preventing Violent
Conflict acknowledges, "conflict sensitivity also applies
to work in countries which are not currently affected by violent
conflict". This is because many conflicts "simmer"
below the surface of the everyday and it is in exactly these kinds
of situations that development assistance is most likely to inadvertently
deepen the conflict or lead to violence.
Conflict and climate change: Lessons from Bangladesh
10. "f, as we expect, climate change
causes more frequent natural disasters, reduced availability of
freshwater, and shocks to food production and livelihoods, it
may exacerbate existing tensions and the risk of violent conflict,
most of all in the poorest countries." (DFID, Preventing
violent conflict, 2006)
11. This observation from DFID is borne out by
field research conducted by Saferworld in Bangladesh in 2008.
Bangladesh is at real risk from the impact of climate change with
half of its total landmass less than two metres above sea level
and its geographical position making the country particularly
vulnerable to cyclones, river and coastal flooding and rising
sea levels. There is a danger that, as the impact of climate change
on the frequency and intensity of natural hazards increases over
time, levels of insecurity will rise and could result in social
and political instability in Bangladesh.
12. Climate change is projected to fuel
the migration of communities in Bangladesh away from areas that
are vulnerable to naturally-occurring hazards, "source areas",
to areas that are less vulnerable or to neighbouring countries,
"destination areas". This in turn may lead to insecurity
in the regions of origin, transit and destination because of increased
competition over already scarce resources and livelihoods. Research
findings highlight the causal linkages between climate change
and insecurity, with migration identified as a possible trigger
for violent conflict.
13. As part of this research, Saferworld
held focus group discussions with over 230 people in communities
affected by issues such as coastal flooding, erosion, saltwater
inundation and the influx of climate induced migration, as well
as conducting over 50 key informant interviews with journalists,
politicians, local government officials, the police, donor institutions,
civil society members and academics.
14. The results of these discussions show
that, whilst the effects of climate change itself may serve to
exacerbate people's existing insecurity, it is likely to be the
adaptive measures taken to cope with these additional pressures
that constitute the biggest risk to violent conflict.
15. People in Bangladesh are very used to
dealing with natural disasters, but the insecurity they produce
has been heightened as climate change increases their severity
and frequency. Consequently, the coping mechanisms people use
are evolving and Saferworld research shows that increasing numbers
of people are now choosing permanent migration over temporary
migration.
16. Bangladesh has a long history of temporary
migration and, when periodic natural disasters make people's livelihoods
untenable, temporary migration is often used to look for an alternative
way to make a living until conditions enable a return home. More
permanent migration is both costly and often emotionally difficult
but, despite these considerations, an increasing number of people
are taking the decision to migrate permanently as more severe
and frequent natural disasters make livelihoods increasingly difficult
to sustain, even when using temporary migration as a coping mechanism.
17. In popular migratory destinations land
is becoming scarce and expensive, with people settling on ever
more marginal tracts. Many people are forced to reside on parcels
of government owned land, "khas", which are becoming
increasingly crowded and subject to competition. Migrants living
on some khas have been subject to violent extortion from local
gangs demanding money to let them stay. And angered by falling
pay levels perceived to be a consequence of an influx of migrant
labour, groups of indigenous residents have also been linked to
violent attacks on migrant communities.
18. And so, although climate change has
not yet led to high levels of violence or conflict in Bangladesh,
socio-political pressures are increasing as more and more people
migrate away from climate related insecurity, and insecurity in
migratory destinations grows due to competition over land and
resources. In a country which faces challenges around weak governance
capacity, a history of conflict and effective rule of law, such
pressures may well lead to an increase in incidents of violent
conflict.
19. And yet, the UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) "National Adaptation Programme
of Action" (NAPA) for Bangladesh does not mention the prospect
of large-scale migration and associated socio-political problems.
Subsequently, it falls short of recommending any action which
would help absorb these pressures in a way that could prevent
insecurity turning into instability and violent conflict.
DFID's existing commitments around conflict and
conflict sensitivity, and the extent to which climate change adaptation
is integrated with them
20. Since 2001, DFID has been conducting
Strategic Conflict Assessments to analyse the conflict causes
and drivers in a country and then, crucially, relate that information
to how they programme their work. However, there is no uniform
guidance on when these assessments should be conducted or how
they should link into the planning, implementation and monitoring
/ evaluation phases of the programme cycle and, subsequently,
it is unclear how much the results of these assessments have influenced
subsequent programming.
21. 2006's Preventing Violent Conflict
aimed to draw together DFID's thinking on conflict—including
that which also appeared in that year's White Paper. It noted
that in order to prevent violent conflict, "| it is essential
to understand what's going on in a society, strengthen relationships
between disparate groups and promote policies which encourage
equality and inclusion." The paper also made commitments
to:
— "Assess the causes of conflict
and insecurity as part of our new governance assessment and use
this to shape UK development policy and programmes."
— "Make sure that development
projects do not inadvertently make worse social tensions that
cause violence."
— "| [tackle] underlying causes
of conflict through our development work and supporting political
and social processes that manage conflicts peacefully."
— "| provide more financial and
political support [at the country level] aimed at increasing UN,
EU and AU capacity to identify, analyse and tackle underlying
causes of conflict."
— "| adapt our human resource
policies and processes to ensure we have people available with
the right experience and abilities to work in states affected
by conflict and that they are enabled to work effectively. We
will continue to build knowledge and understanding amongst staff."
22. On 4 September 2008, the UK signed up
to the Accra Agenda for Action (AAA) which committed donors to
conduct "joint assessments of governance and capacity and
examining the causes of conflict, fragility and insecurity",
as well as monitoring implementation of the Principles for Good
International Engagement in Fragile States and Situations.
23. Although this monitoring of the Principles
is to be done on a voluntary basis, it could certainly be considered
appropriate for "best practice" befitting one of the
world's leading donors. The Principles state that the "long-term
vision for international engagement in fragile states is to help
national reformers to build effective, legitimate, and resilient
state institutions, capable of engaging productively with their
people to promote sustained development".
24. In order to realise this vision, the
Principles suggest that donors take context as the starting point
and do no harm (pointing out that interventions can inadvertently
create societal divisions and worsen corruption and abuse, if
they are not based on strong conflict and governance analysis).
Specific recommendations for how the UK Government
can best promote effective adaptation strategies in developing
countries
25. Adaptation strategies and programmes
in developing countries can have a positive as well as negative
impact on peace and security. A carefully planned and implemented
adaptation strategy based on an understanding of the potential
peace and conflict impacts, has a key role to play in reducing
insecurity and preventing conflict. Conversely, adaptation strategies
which do not take into account conflict risks can have unintended
negative impacts and exacerbate the potential for violent conflict.
Make adaptation strategies conflict-sensitive
26. The UK Government needs to ensure that
climate change adaptation strategies are effective and have the
most positive impact. Serious work needs to go into looking at
the long-term consequences of climate change on peace and security
and the socio-political impacts of adaptation strategies so that
their implementation does not exacerbate existing tensions but
builds on peacebuilding opportunities through adopting a conflict-sensitive
approach. Currently, many adaptation strategies are short-term
in focus, and do not contain adequate provisions relating to the
likely security and conflict-related aspects of climate change.
It is important to take a long-term preventative approach to addressing
the security and conflict-related risks of climate change as reactive
measures to security crises are by their nature short-term, unplanned
and ultimately unsustainable.
27. Governance and the ability to adapt to climate
change play a crucial role in creating security and stability.
These factors will also determine whether the consequences of
climate change will lead to violent conflict. The UK Government
is well placed to support governments affected by climate change
in the development of conflict-sensitive national adaptation strategies
and strengthen governance mechanisms to prevent climate-induced
socio-political pressures from leading to conflict and instability.
Support local governments and communities
28. Many developing countries have limited
capacity to adapt to climate change and address the security and
conflict-related risks. Government endeavours will be more relevant,
sustainable and ultimately strengthened if local governments and
communities are provided with a more central role in the development
of adaptation strategies. As many climate induced security issues
are essentially local in nature, local governments and communities
will be able to identify effective and locally-sensitive initiatives
and policies. This empowerment could also reduce insensitivity
in strategy design and implementation and thus minimise the potential
for climate change-induced insecurity and conflict.
Develop regional adaptation strategies
29. The prospect of millions of people being
forced to migrate from areas made uninhabitable as a result of
climate change also raises concerns over the impact on regional
security and stability. It is crucial that capacity is also built
at the regional level to respond to and prevent the risk of heightened
insecurity and conflict as a result of climate change. This could
include the development of regional climate security policies
and conflict-sensitive regional adaptation strategies fostering
relationships between communities and governments across borders.
Conduct research on socio-political impacts of climate
change
30. Although a relationship between climate
change, security and conflict has been recognised, very little
evidence based research has assessed how these issues affect each
other and impact on overall personal and physical security. This
knowledge gap should be addressed as a matter of priority. In
particular, research at the national and sub-national level is
needed to better understand the long-term socio-political impacts
of climate change. Research should map the likely movement of
migrants from source areas to destination areas both within and
across countries. This would show patterns of potential migration
and help to identify likely security and conflict impacts that
could be addressed through effective early warning and conflict
prevention strategies and action. This information can also be
used to inform the development of conflict-sensitive local, national
and cross-border adaptation strategies.
55 Preface, Preventing Violent Conflict, DFID, 2006. Back
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