Memorandum from Greater Manchester
Police (GMP) (NW 03)
The true relationship between the economic downturn
and crime levels (GMP's core business) is unknown. Indeed, whether
a recession has a direct cause and effect relationship with crime
levels is debatable. The notion that higher unemployment will
directly result in more criminal acts does not ring true. In reality
there are a multitude of complex, interrelated factors and it
is too early to say what the impact of the economic downturn is
on this relationship.
Internally, at a corporate level, GMP has undertaken
an assessment of the strategic issues that may impact on policing
as a result of the economic downturn. In doing so, consideration
was given to organisational issues other than potential increases
in crime. These issues have been assessed in terms of the expected
impact they would have on the organisation and the likelihood
of their occurrence. Appropriate actions for mitigating the associated
risks are now being identified and put in place.
At the local level, Basic Command Units are
working with partners, from both the private and public sectors,
to monitor the effects of the economic climate. For example, the
Oldham Division is working in collaboration with the Oldham Partnership,
which has established monthly "Credit Crunch War Cabinet"
meetings, where issues are considered from across the Partnership.
In terms of the role of Government Office North
West (GONW), anecdotal evidence indicates that it does not accept
that the economic downturn is an appropriate justification for
increases in crime. Furthermore, anecdotal evidence suggests that
GONW has requested updates on the public sector's response to
the economic climate on an ad hoc basis.
It is arguable that the real impact of the recession
on the public sector is yet to be felt and may not be until the
end of the current Comprehensive Spending Review in 2011. The
looming threat of widespread job losses across the public sector
(KPMG are now predicting around 100,000 posts will go), would
have implications both on individual organisations and crucially
on partnership working. The real or perceived effects this may
have on service delivery could have implications for public confidence,
which of course is now a key measure for the Police Service and
local partners.
GMP is responsible for policing Manchester Airport,
which, following a couple of years of strong performance, growth
and record operating profit has this year seen a significant downturn
in passenger numbers (projections are that numbers could reduce
by a couple of million). It follows then that profits will reduce
accordingly, and there has already been a reduction in staff employed
by the Airport and pressure upon capital expenditure programs.
However, in the past year recorded crime has reduced by more than
a quarter and detection rates still achieved 35%. This is viewed
as an example of situational crime reduction through environmental
redesign. Indeed the Airport has made significant investments
in facilities over the past few years, including a number of target
hardening measures. It is anticipated that, when the economic
situation recovers, the Airport will be strongly placed to capitalise
from a growing economy.
Beyond Manchester Airport, the aviation sector
is set to feel the impact of the impending aviation security processes.
The forthcoming Policing and Crime Bill will bring forward legislative
requirements upon all National Aviation Security Programme airports
to undertake "proportionate" processes with local police
forces to agree common threat assessment processes, the development
of an Airport Security Plan and reach an agreement over the policing
levels and their costs. Whilst this has been strongly resisted
and lobbied against by the industry, the Bill will enshrine it.
This will mean that many medium and small operators, will have
to meet new direct costs of policing their Airports. Many operators
would argue that even in the best of economic times, their profit
margins are such that they cannot meet the costs of policing.
However at this particular point in the economic cycle, many are
likely to say that if they are forced to absorb the costs their
operation will no longer be viable. This would see the aviation
sector again lobby extremely hard against these changes when they
are brought forward.
| 
