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Memorandum from the South West Region of Chartered Summary 1 There is a lack of sound methodology and evidence for concluding that transfers between transport modes will have a favourable impact on climate change. There is a significant danger that measures of modal preference will have unintended adverse consequences. 2 Important links within the South West are at risk of disruption or destruction by flooding and this risk will increase substantially in coming decades. 3 Neither existing transport provision for the South West, nor existing plans, offer a well defined path to improved economic efficiency or reductions in climate change impact. 4 The immediate key issues for the South West are to improve its external strategic links and its internal road structure. Road improvement must eliminate congestion bottlenecks within and outside cities and towns. 5 Unfortunately there is a strong case for delaying the electrification of rail links until the excessive emissions from coal fired electricity generation are decarbonised. 6 The
greenhouse gas emissions of air and rail may be sufficiently close for air to
be the least climate change adverse way of providing improved links between the
South West, 7 Intense and challenging public audit of the achieved GreenHouse Gas (GHG) intensity of measures introduced in the current Local Transport Plan period is essential to provide a sound foundation for measures to be included in the next round of LTPs. 8 Alongside encouraging walking, Local Authorities should consider parking priorities and cost reductions for low emission cars, especially the older models. 9 Regional transport strategy needs to concentrate on clear priorities for links to the region and minimise constraints on the development of LTPs. 10 Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving economic effectiveness will require increased investment in transport especially roads. 11 There is little difference in the Government's influence on operation and service between a publically owned service provider and one that is privately owned. 12 The draft Regional Spatial Strategy was prepared in 2006. Provision needs to be made for early update of the transport element.
Evidence 1 The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (CILT) has held a Royal Charter since 1928. It has a unique strength in being able to unite supply chain issues with transport issues. Logistics embraces all aspects of delivery of people and goods, not only their actual movement but optimising the energy and emissions involved with the location of homes, leisure, workplaces, factories and stores. CILT is a major provider of training. It has members at all levels, in academia and the logistics and transport industries. There is an active branch in the South West which has just initiated a review of strategy for the provision of transport and logistics in the South West. The review aims at assisting with the next round of Local Transport Plans (LTP). This response to the Parliamentary Committee for the South West draws on initiatives by the Institute as a whole. A series of articles in the Institute journal established the lack of methodology and sound evidence for concluding that transfers between transport modes will have a favourable impact on climate change. There is a significant danger that measures of modal preference could have unintended adverse consequences. The Institute has initiated a study to define and discover a sound basis for estimating the impact on climate change of transport modes. This will report in early 2010 and will provide a basis for the audit of existing schemes aimed at reducing the carbon footprint of transport. Accurate audit is essential so that successful rather than unsuccessful schemes are replicated. 2 This
response also draws on the latest climate change research. Of particular relevance is the emerging
scientific opinion that the 2007 report on sea levels by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change has been invalidated by later research. Whatever measures are taken to reduce
Greenhouse Gas emissions in the future, the impact of past emissions has
reached the point where substantial increases in sea level are inevitable. A rise over 1990 levels of 1 metre is expected
between 2075 and 2150 with around 30 cm in 2050. Even land above the new sea level will be at
risk from the greater storm surges that accompany the increase in sea
level. The South West branch of the
Institution of Civil Engineers has analysed what parts of the South West transport
infrastructure are already at special risk.[1]
These areas include much of the M5 from 3 Neither existing transport provision for the South West nor existing plans offer a well defined path to improved economic efficiency or to reductions in climate change impact. Plans do not estimate the change in economic effectiveness or the reduction in GreenHouse Gas (GHG) emissions by many individual projects. There is no adequate evidence that transfers between modes have beneficial effects and even if there were such evidence, the opportunities for such transfers are tiny. Measures such as concentrating supply chains locally can be counter-productive. There is no benefit in reducing the mobility of supplies or people if loss of economies of scale means that the GHG intensity of production increases more than the GHG intensity of transport reduces. If this happens the overall carbon footprint increases. The mobility of people and goods will have often have to increase above current levels to enable production and service provision to reduce their carbon footprint sufficiently to contribute to the national overall targets for reducing the production of greenhouse gasses. In Developing A Sustainable Transport System (DASTS) HMG recognises that where goods are transported from and to is best left to industry.[2] DASTS is part of a process of evolution in transport policy. The Regional Spatial Strategy is already aged. It was finished in 2006. The transport element requires a process of early revision and adaption to keep up with the evolution of policy. 4 The immediate key issues for the South West are to improve its external strategic links and its internal road structure. Effective policy must concentrate on the ability of roads to support van, lorry and car in delivering lower emissions and improved economic results. Such measures will also support coach and bus.
Improvement in strategic links is essential to provide both financial and GHG headroom for the region. If remote regions are to contribute adequately to reducing GHG and to providing the economic strength to fund these reductions, their strategic links need to be of a better standard than today.
In its response to
HMG's November 2008 paper 'Delivering A Sustainable Transport System', the
Chartered Institute identified the link between
Unfortunately there is a strong case for delaying the electrification of rail links until the excessive emissions from coal fired electricity generation are decarbonised. (I.e. by carbon capture, improved combustion and substituting renewable generation or low carbon fuels.) Until coal decarbonisation is complete, any expansion of transport's use of electrical energy from the grid displaces opportunities to reduce coal burning. This is unacceptable because electricity generated from coal is the fuel with the greatest adverse impact on global warming. We believe that the targets for reductions in carbon footprint are incompatible with starting further rail electrification until a few years before the completion of a programme of coal decarbonisation. This probably pushes back the dates for electrification of the South West rail links to the decade 2040/2050 or possibly late in the decade 2030/2040. Future rail policy may also have to consider how far up-front emissions due to railway construction have greater short-term impact than those for road or airport construction. This will be likely to be the case for airports. Wherever the utilisation of the railway is inherently lower for rail than for road, rail construction emissions are also likely to be more adverse.
The preliminary
results of CILT's examination of modal comparisons suggest that prior to
decarbonisation of electricity supply the GHG intensity of air and rail modes is
close[3]. In the early years of operation of a new or
improved railway, the impact of construction emissions is an additional,
severely adverse, factor. It follows that for the next twenty five to
fifty years the South West should give priority to expanding air links to its population
centres and seek protected access to Heathrow for services from the more remote
parts of the region. The third runway
(if built) is an important opportunity for extending such access without
disruption of existing air services using Heathrow. Similarly, the South West should take
opportunities to protect access to
Within the South West, the priority is to facilitate the use of our existing road network and eliminate congestion bottlenecks by road improvement within and outside cities and towns. Even when costly these measures have potential for immediate and significant improvements in economic performance and for immediate and robust reductions in the associated carbon footprint. They will facilitate the very important home delivery network. A recent article in the CILT Journal[4] indicates that home delivery networks have great potential for minimising carbon footprint. Bus services will also benefit.
Improvements to the road network are a key way of improving the effectiveness of our ports. CILT's response to DASTS notes the importance of links between ports and the main inland freight transport corridors and gives examples of how poor road infrastructure can stifle ports.
In a region of dispersed settlement, commuting is essential. The risk that measures to relieve major routes of commuting will increase emissions, or reduce economic effectiveness, must be minimised. Management of the motorways will need to accommodate commuting.
5 The transport effectiveness of all levels of government has been compromised over two decades by the attempt to provide an alternative to traditional 'predict and provide' without a body of evidence sufficient to form a foundation for effective, long-lived and fully implementable plans at any level.
Dr Shaw of the
Centre for Transport Studies at
The poor existing evidence base for policy means that a local and challenging public audit of measures introduced in the current LTP period is essential to provide better evidence for future policy and to provide a sound foundation for measures to be included in the next round of LTPs. Care needs to be taken to implement only demand management, commuter restraint and modal transfer that can be shown to reduce emissions.
Audit should also consider the overall effectiveness of measures to reduce the general environmental impact of new road building on wildlife. Costs of this kind may restrict the transport improvements that can be afforded. If this happens, rises in carbon footprints may do even more damage to wildlife than building the improvements without special access provisions.
In future plans should propose specific projects with auditable targets for the impact on GHG intensity and the local economy.
6 The regional transport strategy needs to concentrate on clear priorities for links with the region and minimising any unnecessary restraints on LTPs. It is desirable to set only broad objectives for targets such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions and not to prescribe the means of reduction.
The LTP process is currently subjected to objectives such as minimising car use and maximising public transport[8] despite the lack of adequate evidence that the necessary measures can achieve the underlying objectives. (I.e. improving quality of life by reducing congestion and minimising carbon footprint.) LTPs need to be left to the responsible Local Authority. There should be no constraint beyond overall objectives such as GHG reduction and requiring that LTPs articulate with the external links strategy. It is wasteful for higher levels of governance to duplicate local expertise by setting the means to achieve objectives or over detailed objectives. This kind of ineffective bureaucracy wastes resources. Two priorities for the alternative use of such resources are improving national and local research so transport decisions are better based and improving local audit of the effect of transport initiatives.
7 Local measures to encourage the rapid adoption of the most carbon efficient forms of personal transport should be considered as part of LTPs. In addition to encouraging walking and cycling, some simple measures can have very low costs compared with their impact. For example, lower cost parking and priority access could be provided for the least polluting cars. This would not only include new cars but some older vehicles, for example the Peugeot 106 and similar vehicles with low emissions. Such initiatives would contribute to public awareness at all levels of personal income.
8 With adequate funding the priorities suggested will produce economic and environmental returns very rapidly. There is no 'do nothing' option for the region's transport. It follows that these priorities are the most affordable option and should receive the available budget.
The issue of achieving adequate increased funding for budgets is a national issue and largely outside the remit of the region. The cost of funding the essential improvements to the national road network is small compared to the imposts on transport. Even if managing the consequences of the credit crunch makes it impossible to meet the cost from existing imposts the necessary increase is small compared to the recent large increases on road fuel prices. The necessary increase is thus less likely to cause a similarly adverse political reaction.
CILT supports the recommendation in the Eddington report[9] that price signals to transport users be improved. There is an existing pressure toward transferring a greater proportion of rail costs to users. These increases seem compatible with Eddington until the point is reached where levels of subsidy are matched by benefits to non-rail users. Increasing pay-as-you go charges through some form of road pricing has strong advocates but local schemes have severe difficulties and a national scheme might disadvantage remote regions. The issues of pay-as-you go pricing seem unlikely to be resolved in the short to medium term. The effect of intermediate measures, such as fare increases and tolling some new roads, seem likely to relieve public finances.
9 Wherever there is an opportunity for modestly profitable operation, the private sector can be successfully involved, as has been amply demonstrated by the government and the transport industry. The constraints on influencing a publically owned service provider are similar to influencing the private sector. In the publically owned case, government must provide adequately for the income and other employment aspirations of the workers together with the remuneration of whatever capital it has borrowed to establish and sustain the service. In the privately owned case, the private provider must provide adequately for the income and other employment aspirations of the workers together with the remuneration of whatever capital it has borrowed to establish and sustain the service. In both cases, service levels must be funded. In both cases, if the public is dependent on the service, government is drawn in to provide funds or regulation, whenever the complexities of cash management threaten service levels.
We do not believe that influencing private service providers is a difficulty affecting sensible priorities for transport in the South West.
Prepared for the South
West Section of Chartered 15 July 2009 by J.H.M. Russell. Appendix: An illustrative discussion of potential unintended consequences.
The complexity of
transport and land use interactions is a source of a variety of unintended
consequences. For example, the
Independent Transport Commission[10]
felt that the ten year transport plan issued in 2000 did not adequately discuss
the land use implications of the measures proposed. It forecast that extension of higher speed
rail access to
We believe that the risk of untended consequences is minimised by concentration on relatively well-understood schemes of congestion relief. The researchers for this report, Professor Sir Peter Hall & Dr Marshall, noted: "There is a great deal of relevant material on the question, but not much positive evidence suggesting any clear quantitative relationships. Many investigations into land-use-transport interactions are purely theoretical, relating to modelling studies (which we do not report on here). Some empirical studies address only part of the problem, such as the link from transport infrastructure location to accessibility, or from accessibility improvements to development." This comment and many like it are part of the evidence supporting the view that the available evidence is often inadequate and that better audit of schemes is required.
Southwest Section
of Chartered 9 July 2009
[1] The State of the Nation Defending Critical Infrastructure issued by the Institute of Civil Engineers http://www.ice.org.uk/downloads/ICE%20State%20of%20the%20Nation%20-%20Defending%20Critical%20Infrastructure.pdf and South West briefing sheet http://www.ice.org.uk/downloads/South%20West%20briefing%20sheet.pdf [2] DASTS page 67 box [3] See 'Transport Carbon' in
FOCUS The Journal of the Chartered [4] Shopping trips versus home delivery Focus the journal of the
Chartered [5] Traffic Jam [6] See Illustrative appendix on unintended consequences. [7] Traction energy metrics Rail Standards and Safety Board [8] policies TRAN 4 and TRAN 3 Regional Planning Guidance for the South West (RPG 10) and 6.1 Developing the Regional Transport Strategy in the South West (for current LTPs). Section 5 Regional Approach to Transport (for future LTPs). [9] The Eddington Transport Study 2006 [10] The Land Use Effects of 'The 10 Year Plan' September 2002 independent transport commission 2002.
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