EVIDENCE FOR REGIONAL SELECT COMMITTEE INQUIRY INTO TRANSPORT

 

From Ray Bentley

 

Implications for Plymouth and Exeter of DfT Electrification Announcement

 

This evidence is 'late' but arises from events after the closing date.

 

The GWML electrification announcement has to be warmly welcomed. However, what are the implications for Plymouth? The routing of trains and the performance of the bi-mode trains on the gradients west of Newton Abbot effects Plymouth. Both effect journey time and hence the attractiveness of rail travel to the SW. The financial viability of electrification further west could depend on the conversion costs of a bi-mode to all electric traction. There are 12 questions that the inquiry could seek answers to that are crucial to the future of rail travel to the far SW.

 

QUESTIONS

 

Paragraph 59 of the DfT announcement on electrification notes that it will now be possible to focus on electric and bi-mode Super Express Trains (SET). Paragraph 41 sees bi-modes being used for through services to the South West, presumably Exeter, Newton Abbot, Paignton, Plymouth and Penzance. Paragraph 40 notes the synergy between replacing the HST fleet and electrification. It further notes that the 30/40 year life of rolling stock means that this is a 'once in a lifetime' opportunity. There is concern that those bi-modes could, for the same longevity reasons, frustrate electrification further into the SW, unless the conversion costs of a bi-mode SET into a fully electric SET, are low. Hopefully an extra electric power car would increase seating capacity and the extra revenue may help to defray the cost of conversion.

 

1. Will bi-modes to Exeter, Newton Abbot and beyond operate via Bristol or the B&H or both?

2. If via Bristol, will there be a stopping service to at least Exeter via the B&H?

3. If so, what rolling stock will be used on the B&H for such a service?

4. If bi-mode SETs for the South West travel via Bristol, will they stop before Bristol?

5. Would at least some be first stop Taunton?

6. What would the stopping pattern and spread (quantify frequency, e.g. Plymouth hourly?) of destinations beyond Bristol be?

7. What are the projected fastest and average journey times for bi-modes from London to Taunton, Exeter, Newton Abbot (please specify Newton Abbot separately to show performance on gradients west of there), Paignton, Plymouth and Penzance, via both Bristol and B&H?

8. How many bi-mode Super Express Trains are allocated for operation on the West of England lines west of Bristol?

9. Does the Agility Trains specification call for the design to allow for easy conversion of the diesel power car on a bi-mode to a second electric power car?

10. What is the estimated cost of such a conversion?

11. How many extra seats would be added to a SET by such a conversion?

12. To what extent would the extra revenue from any extra seats defray the costs of conversion?

 

If some answers have to be approximate for the time being, such an interim answer would be useful.

Table 2: Anticipated journey time savings following the

Background

 

The questions above are triggered by the following quotes from the announcement and other points detailed below. The paragraph numbers are from the DfT announcement.

 

"14. Electric trains are generally cheaper to buy than diesel trains, reflected in

lease costs which are typically around 20% lower. This relative advantage is

set to increase: engines for diesel trains are likely to become more

expensive following the introduction of stricter EU emissions standards from

2012. The engines required by these standards are likely to be heavier,

larger and more complicated as a result of the emissions control technology

required."

 

So while the environmental gains of electric trains get better as the generation mix moves to low carbon: diesel trains will become heavier and damage the track more, requiring higher track maintenance costs. Railways beyond the wires become relatively less economically viable.

 

"22. Inevitably electrification makes most sense on busier routes where the cost of installing new infrastructure can be offset by large ongoing savings from running electric trains. Network Rail's draft Network Route Utilisation

Strategy: Electrification was published in May 2009. We have carefully

studied Network Rail's proposals, alongside our own detailed analysis. It is

this work which has led us to prioritise two routes - Liverpool to Manchester

and the Great Western Main Line."

 

The need to prioritise the busiest routes is understood but Figure 9 shows the routes that are being further studied. They are MML and Manchester and Liverpool both to Preston. CrossCountry, the B&H and west of Bristol are off the radar.

 

"27. This electrification programme radically affects the requirements for rolling

stock over the next decade. There will be far less need for diesel trains and

a greater requirement for electric trains. In particular, the previously-planned

procurement by the Government of new diesel trains has now been

superseded. We will accordingly publish a new rolling stock plan in the

autumn, taking account of the changed circumstances."

 

Presumably this applies to local/regional DMUs and with cascaded DMUs from electrifying commuter services into Paddington is understandable. For SET/IEP is more worrying (see below) and the need to influence the new rolling stock plan in the autumn is essential.

 

"40. The replacement of a whole fleet of trains operating over a route creates an opportunity to reconsider the power source for those trains. Rolling stock

fleets tend to last 30 to 40 years, so the replacement of the Intercity 125

High Speed Train (HST) fleet over the next decade creates a 'once in a

generation' opportunity to electrify the route at the same time as replacing

its rolling stock. The Government has decided to seize the opportunity to

bring together the planning for the replacement of the HST fleet with a

programme of electrification, rather than embarking on a sub-optimal

replacement of the HST with another diesel-only fleet."

 

A 'once in a generation' opportunity indeed, but 'sub-optimal' will do for the SW beyond Bristol

 

"41. The proposed fleet for an electrified Great Western Main Line to Swansea

will include a proportion of 'bi-mode' trains, so that destinations including

Worcester, Gloucester, Cheltenham, Carmarthen and the South West

beyond Bristol continue to enjoy through trains while also gaining the

benefits of electrification. These bi-mode trains have a diesel generator

vehicle at one end and an electric transformer vehicle at the other end. This

allows bi-mode trains to operate 'off the wires' to maintain through services

and provide diversionary services."

 

So will bi-modes to the "South West beyond Bristol" be the main London/far SW service? Is the B&H totally off the radar? When Cardiff and Bristol need a service to London when there is a blockade on GWML will the bi-modes for Exeter and Plymouth be used Cardiff/Bathampton Junction/Westbury and back on the wires at Newbury?

 

"59. The deployment plan for Great Western did not assume any electrification

and so was based on using diesel Super Express trains. As these trains

have a 30-year life-span, this would have meant the continued use of

diesel-only trains on Great Western for the next generation. Electrification of

the Great Western Main Line will now enable the Super Express

procurement process to focus on electric and bi-mode options for Great

Western. The contract with Agility Trains will be conditional upon their

delivery of significant savings and expected capacity increases from the

deployment of electric and bi-mode trains."

 

So no all diesel SETs at all? What will the performance of bi-modes be on the gradients west of Newton Abbot? What will bi-mode journey times from London to Taunton, Exeter and Paignton be via Bristol? How much slower will the journey time be to Plymouth over the south Devon banks with bi-modes and no wires? So, despite a new rolling stock plan in autumn, the rolling stock plan already seems to be in place for the SW. The rolling stock plan for bi-modes seems to be leading the electrification strategy rather than consideration being given to the NR figures on BCRs and positive financial cases for XC and B&H.

 

"76. As with other rail investments, the cost of electrification will be funded by

Network Rail and supported by the Government. Over the medium term

this £1.1bn investment in electrification will be self-financing, paying for itself

through lower train maintenance, leasing and operating costs. This means

that this investment can take place without reducing already planned

infrastructure enhancement work."

 

The same would be true of other routes with positive financial cases (e.g. B&H) but such routes are not even receiving further study (Figure 9). Off the radar and buried?

 

Cross-Country (XC) and B&H

 

The electrification of XC was not in the core strategy in the NR report but was seen as having a high BCR and would be one of the follow on routes. It is not mentioned in the DfT announcement. This would further support the hypothesis that the electrification strategy is being led by the rolling stock plan. The diesel Voyagers used by XC are comparatively new and do not need replacing hence no electrification plan for XC and therefore no wires between Cogload Junction (Taunton) and Plymouth/Paignton to link with B&H electrification.

 

If a cascade use for the 4 car Voyagers on XC could be found, there maybe more chance of XC electrification. They need to stay together as a fleet to share one (or two) engineering bases. The Cardiff to Nottingham, Manchester and Portsmouth services could be candidates for these and could share engineering at Cardiff. They may be more suitable than other cascades under consideration. It is understood that the old Thames Turbo commuter DMUs may be used for Cardiff/Portsmouth.

 

Converting Bi-modes

 

If bi-modes could have the diesel powercar (which runs a generator and feeds the electric drive on axles under the SET carriages) could be economically converted to another electric powercar (transformer and pantograph), then bi-modes would not be the block feared to future electrification. No mention of this conversion or its cost has been seen. Understanding its feasibility and cost is important.

 

Ray Bentley

16 September 2009