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"ambitious, confused, frustrated, worried and overworked".
Looking at them today, I must say that that is a pretty accurate description.
Mike Gapes (Ilford, South) (Lab/Co-op) rose-
Mr. Hague: I think that the hon. Member for Ilford, South (Mike Gapes), the Chairman of the Select Committee on Foreign Affairs, wants to intervene.
Mike Gapes: The shadow Foreign Secretary has remarked on the two posts of President of the Council of Ministers and High Representative, but, given his party's evolution and movement away from the mainstream of Europe, will he tell us when he thinks that a British Conservative will ever be in a position to take up such a post?
Mr. Hague: It may very well happen, but the matter will not come up for a few years now, so it is not exactly an immediate issue. On that subject, however, as I said in my answer to the right hon. Member for Rotherham, we have had no difficulty communicating and often agreeing with the mainstream in Europe.
Mr. Hague: I am not going to spell out who to the right hon. Gentleman, because I should like him now to keep for ever in his mind the paranoia about who has been plotting against him.
The High Representative will, however, have some serious work to do, and the Foreign Secretary mentioned some of the foreign policy areas on which Europe needs to work together. One is very much Bosnia, and he knows that I have mentioned the political crisis in Bosnia on many occasions in the past three years. I welcome his personal attention to the very concerning situation in that country; I very much welcome the extension of EUFOR's mandate and its United Nations charter chapter VII authority, and I hope that the mandates of the international judges and prosecutors working in the state court will also be extended before their mandate expires on 15 December.
The recent communiqué on Bosnia sought to highlight the positive wherever possible, but the fact remains that the country is on a downward trend; that its future is under direct challenge from some political leaders, who deliberately block the work of joint state and entity institutions; and that the future of the Office of the High Representative and the international presence has become a pawn in the hands of some local politicians. However, I put it to the Foreign Secretary that offering the bait of eventual EU membership might not be enough to resolve the immediate crisis. Given that, for example, the Prime Minister of the entity of Republic Srpska openly and repeatedly asserts the autonomy of that entity as a more important goal than joining the EU, does the Foreign Secretary believe that the distant prospect of EU membership is enough to make the political leaders in the country approach talks in a more constructive manner? I hope that he agrees that if no progress is made, the time will soon come for the EU to reinforce its message to Bosnian leaders, with the threat of sanctions against individuals who are deliberately blocking reforms.
I also welcome Serbia's continued commitment to joining the EU; we understand that Belgrade plans to apply for EU membership before the end of the year. However, a major block remains to Serbia's EU aspirations: the arrest and actual transfer of the two remaining alleged war criminals to The Hague. Will Ministers clarify what the Government's assessment is today of Serbia's co-operation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia? Can they assure the House that Her Majesty's Government's policy remains that ratification of Serbia's stabilisation and association agreement with the EU is contingent on full co-operation with the International Court of Justice, and that that continues to mean the arrest and transfer of those two remaining indictees?
Andrew Mackinlay: Would it not be fairer to Serbia if we made it clear now that one other condition, which the right hon. Gentleman has not mentioned, was that it would not have a veto over the applications of other states from the former Yugoslavia to the EU? If Serbia is admitted and Kosovo remains outside, Kosovo will not be able to come in for ever and a day. We need to be clear from the outset that Serbia's right of veto on further admissions will not apply to other states of the former Yugoslavia.
Mr. Hague: That would certainly need to be formally or tacitly agreed in some way. We all want all the countries of the western Balkans to be able to join the European Union.
As the Foreign Secretary mentioned, another vital issue on which European nations need to work together is that of Iran. I add the Opposition's condemnation of how the locally engaged employees of our Tehran embassy have been treated and express our concern for the fate of Mr. Hossein Rassam. We welcome the solidarity that other European countries have shown on the issue and hope that robust co-ordinated action from EU member states will follow if Iran continues with its harassment of our embassy staff. The dispute with Iran over its nuclear programme is serious, but we must not forget the human rights of Iranians, many of whom are suffering appallingly from the oppression of the Iranian state.
It is right that every attempt should be made to coax Iran into a meaningful diplomatic process. As the Foreign Secretary will recall, I have argued for some months that American outreach to Iran had to be backed by EU countries demonstrating to Iranians that if they reject negotiations, European nations will agree on a detailed set of sanctions. That scenario is looking increasingly likely, and we hope that those preparations will now be taken forward in earnest. Given the past difficulty in persuading all EU nations to adopt sanctions as tough as those that the British Government and Opposition have sought, we should be trying to win the argument for such sanctions now, to ensure that no time is lost if their implementation is required.
I want to remind the Foreign Secretary that although we understand the immense difficulty in securing agreement to sanctions, the Prime Minister has twice-in November 2007 and again in June 2008-announced sanctions on Iranian oil and gas that have never materialised. The announcement of such pledges and then the failure to deliver on them does not exactly strengthen the hand of the international community. In our view, we are approaching the time when much more serious measures need to be taken by the EU and other nations across the world; otherwise, we will face the calamity of Iran's acquiring a nuclear weapon or the other possibly calamitous event of others taking matters into their own hands and launching a military attack on Iran.
The Foreign Secretary spoke of the middle east peace process. Like him, we fully support the Obama Administration's efforts to restart negotiations on a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Like the Foreign Secretary, we regret that a way forward has not been found and we are also deeply concerned by the announcement last week that 900 new housing units will be built in East Jerusalem. We are also distressed and concerned about the humanitarian situation in Gaza, especially as it seems that the UK has not yet been able to spend any of the funding earmarked for reconstruction there. This is another foreign policy issue on which the Prime Minister has made headlines in the past and then not followed through. He made several commitments in the wake of the Gaza conflict, saying in January:
"Britain is prepared to give naval resources so that we can monitor and stop arms traffic and arms getting into Gaza."
However, astonishingly, he made that commitment to stopping arms smuggling without establishing first whether the UK had the capacity to do it, a point that my hon. Friend the shadow Defence Secretary made at the time. All that the Government have to show for that announcement are meetings between officials from various countries to discuss the issues, after which the Government conceded that the tools that the international community has at its disposal are limited and the challenges of interdiction are high. I suggest to Ministers that it undermines the credibility of the UK to pledge assistance but not see it through. This is a consistent pattern in foreign policy statements made by the Prime Minister.
Mr. Marshall-Andrews:
May I put to the right hon. Gentleman the same question that I put to the Foreign Secretary about the Goldstone report? That report identifies a large number of flagrant breaches of the Geneva convention-the fourth convention and its first protocol. In this country, as a result of the Geneva convention
Acts, we have a duty to pursue and prosecute those breaches. In those circumstances, will the right hon. Gentleman undertake-if he is ever in the position to do so-to talk to the Director of Public Prosecutions with a view to issuing the necessary warrants? The Foreign Secretary said to me that he thought that it was a domestic matter for Israel. Before the right hon. Gentleman is tempted to give the same answer, will he address himself to what he would do if Israel did not carry out any independent review of Goldstone?
Mr. Hague: The Foreign Secretary's answer was not quite that it is just a domestic matter, because it is of course a matter of international concern. My answer is similar to his: we want the allegations made in the Goldstone report to be properly investigated by all the parties concerned. That is the Government's position, and it is the position of the Opposition. I do not want to speculate about what should happen if that never happens. That is the appropriate way forward. The hon. and learned Gentleman now has the smile on his face of a person who has got the same answer from the Opposition as he did from the Government, but that is our position.
I also want to say a brief word about the situation in the horn of Africa, although I must finish soon to let other hon. Members speak. The situation in North Yemen, never mind the situation in Somalia-and the plight of Paul and Rachel Chandler-is also deeply troubling. There, our priority must be to try to ensure that the conflict does not spill over into surrounding areas. Our direct power in that area is limited, but we cannot risk either Yemen or Somalia turning into the next Afghanistan. What influence the UK has in those two countries must be brought to bear now.
The Foreign Secretary mentioned Zimbabwe, and I hope that the Government will urge Southern African Development Community states to put pressure on Mugabe to let him know that he will not be allowed to flout the power-sharing arrangement with impunity.
Sir Nicholas Winterton (Macclesfield) (Con): The fact is that Mugabe has totally dismissed a decision by the SADC tribunal. How much longer will we allow Mr. Mugabe to get away with atrocities against his own people?
Mr. Hague: My hon. Friend speaks with the sense of outrage felt in this country and in many others about what has been happening in Zimbabwe, but it is not as simple as what we allow. Many things have happened in the past that we would not have allowed if we had the power to prevent them, but we have to work through other countries, especially the other southern African countries, to achieve anything in Zimbabwe. It is right that EU sanctions remain in place while Mugabe is in power and abuses are committed on such a large scale. However, the pressure that we exert must be through SADC members. I again call on the Government to ensure that co-ordinated work is done with our international partners to prepare for the day after Mugabe, with a comprehensive package of development and political assistance, which Zimbabwe will need at the time.
On Sudan, in our view the international community must step up its diplomacy in response to the dual crisis, in the south and continuing in Darfur.
Daniel Kawczynski (Shrewsbury and Atcham) (Con): Will my right hon. Friend give way?
Mr. Hague: I am sorry, but I must now conclude my remarks.
We hope that there is a successful Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting. The Commonwealth has a role to play in conflicts and disputes around the world, but in our view the Government have neglected it over the past 12 years. We hope that they will put that right at the conference.
We are behind the efforts to secure agreement at the Copenhagen summit on climate change and look for a binding commitment to keeping the rise in global temperatures to below 2° C and to taking action on deforestation.
I join the Foreign Secretary in welcoming the Sri Lankan Government's announcement. We have all strongly urged the Sri Lankan Government to honour their commitment and return all people to their homes by the end of the year. We want to see a process of healing and reconciliation, which is so desperately required in that country.
There are immense challenges in foreign policy, which we could all speak about at even greater length than the Foreign Secretary and I have. Where Ministers continue to do the right thing, we will continue to support them. However, there are many searching questions, such as those that I have raised on Afghanistan, that they must be prepared to answer. I hope that we will have those answers at the end of this debate.
4.21 pm
Mr. Edward Davey (Kingston and Surbiton) (LD): When we debate foreign and defence policy today, the thoughts and feelings of us all will be with our armed forces and their families. Our responsibility in this House to debate and decide on the right policies, whether on the Afghanistan conflict or elsewhere, is a daunting one. Whether it is the fears of families with loved ones now on the front line or the tears of families with loved ones lost or seriously injured, the human cost and sacrifice made by those who send us here must never be forgotten in our deliberations. I join others who have paid tribute to the bravery and courage of our troops and their relatives, and it is therefore right today that we should focus on Afghanistan.
In an interview that he gave to The Guardian at the weekend, the Foreign Secretary seemed to be worried that the Opposition parties were about to break the eight-year cross-party consensus in support of the war. Although he has now had to leave his place, may I put it on the record for him that the speeches and interviews that he and the Prime Minister have given in recent days and weeks, in which they have talked about forthcoming changes in strategy on Afghanistan, have gone some way to reassuring us? It is true that over the past year, my right hon. Friend the Member for Sheffield, Hallam (Mr. Clegg) and I have become increasingly concerned at how the war is being prosecuted. The lack of progress in both the military and civilian fields causes us, like many in the House and outside, to question the international security assistance force's strategy and, therefore, Government policy.
In this debate last year, I argued that it was inconceivable to follow a strategy based on NATO troops remaining in Afghanistan for 30 years, as some had been arguing. Neither the British public nor the Afghans could support
that. There therefore needed to be a change in strategy. Last year, alone in the House-alone from the Front Benches, at least-I advocated talking to parts of the Taliban and adopting a regional approach, involving countries such as Pakistan, India, Iran, China and Russia. I emphasised the urgent need for a new political and diplomatic strategy alongside the military approach.
When I read the Foreign Secretary's speech to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly last Tuesday, when he spelt out, in much greater detail than I believe he had before, a political strategy to divide the insurgency and reintegrate the reconcilable back into the Afghan mainstream, I was therefore greatly encouraged. Although I have some lingering doubts, which I shall touch on shortly, his advocacy of a national reintegration organisation and an Afghan resettlement fund seems to be along the right lines. There must now be some serious resources and structures invested in winning over tens of thousands of Afghan insurgents.
Equally, it was welcome to see in the Foreign Secretary's NATO speech more analysis of the importance of involving Afghanistan's neighbours, even though he confined his detailed remarks, perhaps understandably, to Pakistan. Let me therefore tell Ministers that if the ISAF strategy is about to change in ways that we have argued for and that the Foreign Secretary and the Prime Minister have been alluding to, we will continue to support the mission in Afghanistan.
Adam Price: If the hon. Gentleman is right, and a new strategy is being developed by the Government, does he not agree that that strategy should be put to a vote in this House?
So that there can be no doubt or confusion, let me spell out in more detail the change in strategy that we hope President Obama will announce shortly-probably on Thursday. On the continuing and essential military approach, we have found the McChrystal review compelling. A counter-insurgency strategy that aims to give proper protection to Afghan citizens seems right, especially if that means a greater focus on the larger population centres. From the British perspective on troop numbers, I rather agree with the Prime Minister's approach-that we would be willing to provide a modest number of extra forces, albeit with conditions. His conditions also seem right, but I would add the proviso that there must also be the political surge for which many of us have been pressing for months.
Jeremy Corbyn: Does the hon. Gentleman not understand that the grave risk attached to the McChrystal strategy of expanding troop numbers in order to set up a counter-insurgency programme is that it will be insufficient and require more troops, and that there would then be an attempt to occupy the whole country? The situation would spin out of control, just as the whole Vietnam counter-insurgency strategy did. Is it not better to look for a different strategy that involves withdrawal?
Mr. Davey: There is a risk involved with anything that we do in Afghanistan; there is no risk-free option. The cost of withdrawal or of mission failure is absolutely huge. If the McChrystal proposal for more troops involved only a military surge, we would not be supporting it.
I want to go into more detail about the political strategic changes that we think are essential. Our key test for the new strategy is the shape of the politics around it. Clearly, we need the political change at national level in Kabul for which the Americans and our Government have been pressing, and President Karzai might now be making the right noises. However, if corruption is not tackled in practice, and if Karzai is not prepared to give away more power or to revert to more traditional power structures at provincial, tribal and village levels, I hope that the price he might have to pay has been clearly spelled out to him. We cannot expect our troops to put their lives on the line if President Karzai does not act. One would have thought he would realise that, like former Afghan leaders, he will face risks if the mission does not succeed.
Then we come to the international politics involved. Changes in the international dimension of the political strategy have at last begun to be made, but there is a huge amount still to do. The willingness of the Pakistan military to take on the Pakistan Taliban has been impressive, but there are still concerns that the Pakistani security forces distinguish all too readily between what they consider to be "good" Taliban and "bad" Taliban, with, outrageously, the "good" Taliban being those who are organising the Afghan insurgency. That cannot be allowed to continue.
We have to understand why the security forces think that. It stems from the traditional belief/paranoia within the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence-the ISI-that India intends to attack Pakistan. According to the ISI, India is seeking a friendly Government in Kabul to make such an attack possible from two fronts. In ISI minds, therefore, a Taliban Government-or, indeed, civil war-in Afghanistan is somehow preferable to a stable regime for Pakistan's security. A Taliban regime might make overtures to India and make a joint pact-for example, on linked action on historic disputes over Kashmir and the Durand line. If the ISI were to change that view, the prospect of cutting off the Afghan Taliban leadership and direction, which currently sit comfortably in parts of Pakistan, would be greatly enhanced.
Mr. MacShane: I support much of the hon. Gentleman's analysis, but is he aware that the four last general manoeuvres that the Indian army have undertaken were all based on the assumption that it was going to invade and occupy Pakistan? Is he also aware that 80 per cent. of all Pakistani troops are, sadly, on the country's eastern frontier with Kashmir, facing 500,000 Indian troops? I think we would all prefer more of those troops to be on the western front, dealing with Pakistan and its problematic provinces. India therefore has to be part of the solution, and finding some way of de-escalating the Kashmir dispute really ought to be the object of the foreign policy of this country and the other NATO powers.
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