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When we talk of the civil effort, the first, most important and predominant approach should be to the economy of Helmand province and the Pashtun areas. The north of Afghanistan is not doing badly, but the southern part is doing very poorly. If we do not get a
grip on that, people will die from starvation as much as from any other cause. As the Under-Secretary of State for Defence, the hon. Member for North Durham (Mr. Jones) is listening, let me say that I was pleased to hear Brigadier Cowan, the current commander in Helmand, talking about roads and seedcorn projects, because such projects, markets and provision of jobs and incomes are more critical than one can imagine.
My last point is a simple one and is made as constructively as possible. We have talked in the House time and again about Afghanisation, which has become fashionable in the past 12 months. There is no doubt that that is the only route to a stable Afghanistan. I absolutely agreed with the point made by the right hon. Member for Pontypridd about the contrast between Iraq and Afghanistan. Iraq is a much easier country to run than Afghanistan. Iraq has 600,000 security troops; our plans only go up to some 200,000. The American counter-insurgency manual says 600,000, and the deputy commander of the international security assistance force said 600,000 when I spoke to him. That is the minimum number that would create a stable state.
I started by saying that I did not know what a victory looked like. The conditions for withdrawal with honour and with some form of positive conclusion to the campaign are those that leave in place a stable state that will not be perfect, but which can manage its own affairs, which we can deal with and Pakistan can deal with, and which delivers a reasonable prospect of life to Afghan citizens. If we achieve that, the pill will be less bitter than the one our citizens have had to swallow so far.
6.7 pm
Derek Twigg (Halton) (Lab): I agree with the right hon. Member for Haltemprice and Howden (David Davis) about the state in which we must leave Afghanistan. Before I go on, let me pay tribute to our superb armed forces and put on the record my appreciation for what they are doing in Afghanistan, where I went many times when I was a Minister.
I am committed to our presence in Afghanistan, and we must see it through and achieve the sort of outcome described by the right hon. Gentleman. However, given the political debate that has taken place recently, not least in the press, and the increasing casualties and deaths in Afghanistan in the past 12 months that have made the matter more politically difficult, I am concerned that we are not looking at it as we should. We cannot be in Afghanistan in a half-hearted way. There must be 100 per cent. political will from this Government, from all the parties and from our NATO allies to see the matter through to its conclusion. I am concerned about some of the language used in recent months, to which I shall come in a minute.
The right hon. and learned Member for Kensington and Chelsea (Sir Malcolm Rifkind) was also right-I agreed with most of his speech-that a myth has developed that, because of Afghanistan's history, no one can ever succeed there. Actually, people have succeeded at different times, and there has been stability at different times, but it has always been a difficult place. Why is Afghanistan important, and why has there been so much foreign intervention there over the years? Afghanistan is important
because of where it sits in the world. Often, easy points are made by people who do not know all the facts, but who try to manipulate them to fit their own conclusions.
As has been said, NATO cannot afford to lose in Afghanistan-its credibility is on the line. Some people peddle the idea that because al-Qaeda was driven out of Afghanistan into the border areas of Pakistan and the mountains, there is no point in our being in Afghanistan now. Do we think for one moment that al-Qaeda would not come back into Afghanistan if NATO withdrew? The whole border area is difficult in any case, and we cannot have one solution without the other: we must have a solution in Pakistan and a solution in Afghanistan.
The defeat of the insurgents in Pakistan is crucial, because the fundamentalists must not be allowed to win there. That involves great difficulties, because Pakistan has nuclear weapons. I do not know how close the insurgents have come, or could come, to toppling the Pakistan Government, but if they did, it would cause a major problem. What would India's reaction be in such circumstances? There are many other scenarios to be discussed in the context of the importance of Afghanistan, not all of which relate to Pakistan.
I have read a great many books in the past 12 months, some of them better than others. It seems from a book by Colonel Stuart Tootal-a fine officer and soldier-that after we had sent in 3,000 troops, they were sent all over Helmand following demands from the Afghan Government and the governor. What followed was what can only be described as the debacle of Musa Qala. At one point, we very nearly withdrew. I believe that that was due to a number of factors. I am sure that the advice given to Ministers by the chiefs of staff, the Foreign Office and others was that it was necessary at the time, but they probably did not envisage that the troops would be dragged all over Helmand province trying to deal with various outbreaks of insurgency, or anticipate the problems to which those outbreaks led.
The argument that there were not enough troops in the first place is, in my view, unassailable. I have always argued that there ought to be more troops, and we have put more troops in. I want to make what I consider to be an important point about NATO's contribution, and I shall do so shortly, but first I want to deal with stories in the press suggesting that we might withdraw from part of Helmand into the most populated areas. That would be a major mistake. We need boots on the ground. Our troops should be working among the people, providing protection and security and allowing development to take place. The idea that we should do that only in certain areas of Helmand is farcical. I do not see how it could logically be achieved, and I do not know whether it is being seriously considered.
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence (Mr. Kevan Jones): I was in Musa Qala last week. The bazaar is flourishing and development is taking place, but I was told by both troops and commanders on the ground that the dangerous talk and irresponsible press reporting in this country had been broadcast on Taliban radio within two days. I agree with my hon. Friend that people should guard against making irresponsible comments that can be used on the ground against our troops.
Derek Twigg: I thank my hon. Friend for that information.
I hope that President Obama will indeed decide to put thousands more American troops on the ground, although I think he has been right to take his time in making his decision. However, I should be interested to know whether the Opposition can confirm their position regarding NATO. I have been consistent in criticising some members of NATO for not providing more troops, equipment and other resources in Afghanistan, as has the hon. Member for Woodspring (Dr. Fox). I have heard him do so time and again from the Opposition Front Bench.
According to newspaper reports at the weekend, the Conservatives are saying that we must recognise the constitutional difficulties of some of our NATO allies. The United Kingdom and, perhaps, France could provide an expeditionary force, but the others would be there merely to support us. I do not know whether those reports are true, but if that is Conservative party policy, it is very worrying. We must continue to apply pressure; we cannot be half-hearted. As I said earlier, there must be 100 per cent. commitment from NATO and our allies to ensure that we see this through to the end. We cannot allow people to do little bits here and there. The Taliban will see that as a weakness in any event.
I do not consider it helpful to set a time scale at this stage; we have not travelled far enough down the road to do so. Talk of withdrawal from some areas of Helmand, and of when we will leave Helmand, can only give succour to the Taliban. It will give them the impression that we have real problems and are facing defeat. I cannot see a political reason for such talk. We must be very strong in that regard. We are asking our service personnel to fight and sometimes to die out there, and clearly there will be many casualties. Given what we are asking them to do, they must be 100 per cent. sure that there is 100 per cent. political will to see this through to the end. The comments I have read and heard recently, in the press and elsewhere, are not helpful in that respect.
Mr. David Winnick (Walsall, North) (Lab): I hope to make a speech on this issue if I catch the eye of the occupant of the Chair. Meanwhile, may I ask my hon. Friend whether he is really saying that it does not matter if victory is not secured in the next few years-in another eight, 10 or 15 years?
Derek Twigg: I am not saying that. As my hon. Friend will have heard, some have argued that it will take 30 years, but the fact remains that it will take some time. We know, for instance, that the training of the Afghan army is proceeding better than that of the Afghan police. Many people are having to be trained to take over responsibility for security. How can anyone say at this stage whether that will take a year, two years or three years? We shall have to make the judgment at the appropriate time. If we say that we will be out of there in two, three, four or five years, what does that tell the Taliban? What does it say about our commitment there? The issue is our commitment and the message we are sending to our enemies; we must get that right at the beginning. I am not going to specify a time limit, although I do not want us to be there for 30 years. We must ensure that we complete the project of training the security forces and securing stability in Afghanistan in the correct way.
I should like to hear from Ministers how the training of the Afghan police and armed forces to take over responsibility for security will be paid for in the coming years. The cost, and our contribution, will have to be substantial. We are not talking about just two, three, four or five years. As we have heard, Afghanistan is a very poor country. How could it sustain those arrangements on its own?
We must continue to maintain 100 per cent. political commitment to Afghanistan, to ensuring that our NATO allies contribute more, and to dealing with corruption, which is particularly important. I hope that President Karzai will be true to his word, but I suspect that the task will be much more difficult than we expect. We must deal with it on both the national and the local level. We need a proper system of justice so that people need not seek justice from the Taliban.
There should be no illusions that there will be a western-style democracy. I cannot believe that anyone seriously imagines that that is possible, and we should not give the impression that it is. What is needed is a system that takes account of tribal and ethnic issues, and as I have said, security is key to that. The Under-Secretary of State for Defence, my hon. Friend the Member for North Durham (Mr. Jones), mentioned events in Musa Qala. We need security so that the Afghan people can see that we are making a difference to their lives-for instance, in schools and hospitals.
I recall visiting a hospital in Lashkar Gah-if it could be called a hospital; it was just an old building containing one or two bits of equipment. There was a long queue of people who were trying to be seen, and doctors and nurses were desperate for equipment and support. We must do more, whether it is building more bridges, building better housing or providing more commerce and business. That must be part and parcel of what we are doing in military terms as well.
We must also try to understand the tribal system better and bring more of the elders on board. We should work with tribes and elders in the villages and elsewhere. I am not in favour of the argument that we should pay ex-Taliban fighters to do our work for us or with us. We may be able to bring some over to our side, but I am not sure that there can be a wholesale policy at this stage. However, I have not been in Afghanistan for more than a year, so I could be mistaken.
If we are to talk of reconciliation, we should do so only from a position of strength. The same applies to the Afghans. I referred earlier to the danger that the insurgents would see our weakness if we spoke the language that I have sometimes heard spoken about reconciliation. Of course reconciliation will be necessary-there is a history of reconciliation in the case of all insurgencies-but it must take place from a position of strength, and must involve the Afghans themselves.
I recently spoke to a mother who was very proud of her son and what he was doing out in Afghanistan. He believes he is making a real difference there, and she does as well. She believes it is a cause worth fighting for. However, she also mentioned the political and press debates about the undermining of the morale of our service personnel in Afghanistan, and the support that they need. They believe they are doing a job out there, and we must give them wholesale political commitment.
The job will be difficult, and it will be absolutely tragic for those who lose their lives, for their families and for the casualties who are wounded, many of them seriously. However, I come back to my earlier point: we must look at all these issues, but we must make decisions based on what is in the interests of our national security and of western security, and, of course, on what is in the interests of the people of Afghanistan. They must also be based on the Pakistan security issue and the consequences of that going wrong. We must make the point time after time that this is about stopping terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda getting back into Afghanistan or getting a base. It is about maintaining security there, and preventing Pakistan from going to the insurgents and their being given a chance to get into power there.
There is a further point, too, which seems to have been lost. We said at the outset, back in 2006, that we were in Afghanistan in part because of the poppy and heroin. That is a major problem, and we should not shy away from the fact that we said that. It is part of the process as well; after all, 90 per cent. of the heroin that ends up here comes from Afghanistan.
Our aims must be to build a stable, more secure Afghanistan, to provide security, to allow the country to develop and to make sure we train up its armed forces and police; that is key to our future there. However, in order to ensure success in Afghanistan, we must have 100 per cent. political will to see this through, and we must make sure that our armed forces, who are sacrificing their lives, see that political will. We must also make sure there are enough troops and service personnel out there. We must have boots on the ground in order to make sure that development and security come about.
6.21 pm
Mr. John Maples (Stratford-on-Avon) (Con): We have heard some interesting speeches on Afghanistan. The hon. Member for Halton (Derek Twigg) and the right hon. Member for Pontypridd (Dr. Howells) looked at the same facts and came to rather different conclusions. The problem I have with the right hon. Gentleman's analysis is that we cannot act unilaterally. We went in there with the United States, and we have to come out with them; we cannot conduct a unilateral withdrawal. The problem I have with the analysis of the hon. Member for Halton is that it does not acknowledge that it is our very presence that has focused, if not caused, the insurgency. That is a big factor. We have succeeded in uniting against us most of the Afghan insurgency, as we did in Iraq. I do not want to discuss Afghanistan, however, although I have a few words to say about it. Instead, I want to talk about the conduct of foreign policy over the last 12 years and how it will change if my party wins the next general election, because some serious and fundamental errors have been made.
When Robin Cook became Foreign Secretary, he made a speech about setting out what he called an ethical foreign policy, as though, somehow, previous foreign policy had not been ethical. There was also talk about being a force for good in the world. I think this has led us into making some serious errors-unintentionally, and in many ways with the best intentions, it has led us into error.
In many respects, this is a rerun of the old argument about whether one should promote one's interests or one's values in foreign policy. I think the answer is both, but values certainly seem to have taken the upper hand over the last 12 years. They have led to a series of errors. I want to comment on two of them, one of which is merely irritating, but the other one of which is dangerous.
The irritating error is the predilection of the current Foreign Secretary and his predecessors for gratuitous moralising about what goes on in other countries where we have no influence and no interest. We get this the whole time; certain other countries get almost daily lectures from the Foreign Secretary about how they ought to conduct their affairs. He does it in an arrogant and patronising way, too. He has said,
"we want to see...Russia on a different course",
and that he has have been talking to President Assad
"for over 18 months...about his responsibilities in the region".
How does the Foreign Secretary think that sounds to those countries, and in what way does it possibly promote our interests? This reached its ridiculous conclusion in his comments on Sri Lanka. He criticised its Government-who were finally coming to grips with the Tamil terrorists and the insurgency-and then, when the Tamils expected some support, he gave them none and we ended up with a huge demonstration in Parliament square. We had no dog in that fight; we had no interest and absolutely no influence. What was the point of that gratuitous comment?
That approach comes from people assuming they have somehow taken the moral high ground because they have asserted it, and they are therefore entitled to tell other people how they think they ought to conduct their affairs. I think foreign policy is about something different, however: if we have an interest we pursue it, and if we have the power to affect an outcome, we use it, but we do not make gratuitous comments, particularly from a moral point of view, about what other people do if we do not have either that interest or that power.
How would we react if President Assad started making comments on our fiscal irresponsibility over the last few years, or the Chinese President criticised us over our rather weak financial regulation? We would be pretty unhappy about it, and I think the press and Members in all parts of this House would unite in opposition to such criticism. Such comment sounds arrogant, and if a first-world country directs it at a third-world country, it does not just sound arrogant, it sounds neo-imperialist as well. When my right hon. Friend the Member for Richmond, Yorks (Mr. Hague) becomes Foreign Secretary-which I very much hope he will in a few months' time-I hope he will resist the temptation to comment, particularly from a moral point of view, on issues over which we have no influence and little, or no, interest.
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