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That is merely the irritating aspect of this so-called ethical foreign policy, however; the dangerous bit is the predilection for intervention. That has been a growing tendency, and it seems to me that no lessons have been learned from one such episode to the next. That is, of course, where ethical foreign policy, or a moral crusade, leads-military intervention. We had a little bit of success in Sierra Leone, and I think that whetted the appetite. That episode involved a gang of essentially armed robbers trying to take over a west African country,
and that might be about the extent of what we can take care of by ourselves. We watched the United States' success in Bosnia, but there was a very specific objective-to get the Serbs to the negotiating table in Dayton-and force was used to achieve that. Our first adventure was therefore Kosovo. That war was probably illegal; there was certainly no United Nations Security Council cover for it-we did not even try to get it, because we knew we could not. I think we were very lucky in Kosovo. We were on the verge of having to invade-of having to send our Army in-and I do not know what the result would have been. One day, I would love to know what Martti Ahtisaari and Viktor Chernomyrdin said to Milosevic that made him back down over Kosovo, but I think we ought to thank God that they did what they did, because otherwise we would have ended up in the kind of mess that we have ended up in in other places where we have intervened. It is so easy to start these things, and so difficult to see where they will go.
We then went into Iraq, which exposed the dubious legality of our actions-by implication there was the need to revive a previous UN Security Council resolution. We also then found that the grounds for the war-the weapons of mass destruction-not only did not exist, but the method by which the Government had come to their conclusions was cruelly exposed to the light of day by the Foreign Affairs Committee, on which I served at the time, and subsequently by other inquiries. We were, at best, misled, and intelligence was manipulated to political ends that seemed to me to justify decisions that had already been taken. Both we and the Americans had initial military success in Iraq. We were welcomed as liberators, but it was not long before we were being targeted as invaders by nationalist groups of one sort or another. I believe that the entire mission conducted by us and the Americans in Iraq acted as both a recruiting sergeant and a training ground for al-Qaeda and its terrorists. They were not in Iraq before, and it certainly gave them a lot of practice. It also gave them something by which to recruit people to its cause-the idea that a western army was on Islamic soil. We should have learned the lessons from that before we went into Afghanistan again in 2006. Whatever success we had in Iraq-the right hon. Member for Cynon Valley (Ann Clwyd) set that out-has to be set against the fact that we have left the region less stable than it was, and that the big winner is Iran, which now does not have a stable, strong country on its western border to act as its counterweight. We are now dealing, at least in part, with the consequences of that, in a much more assertive and much stronger Iran, because it knows that there is nobody in the region who can take it on and stop it.
After Iraq, we went to phase two in Afghanistan. We had cleared the Taliban out in 2001-02, but in 2006 we went back in. Almost as an afterthought, we went into Helmand, and the then Defence Secretary said it was to protect the provincial reconstruction teams. We sent in 3,000 troops and he rather optimistically hoped they would come out without a shot being fired; that is obviously what he thought would happen, too, although he now says that is not so. The reason given for that action was to protect the provincial reconstruction teams, but the Prime Minister said that a large part of our mission was to stop the heroin trade-the hon. Member for Halton also referred to that. In answer to a question from me, the deputy leader of the Labour party, the right hon. and learned Member for Camberwell and
Peckham (Ms Harman), said recently that girls' education was a crucial ingredient in our mission. The Prime Minister has talked about building a democratic state. This is not mission creep; it is mission gallop. We went in there to protect an aid effort; we have ended up trying to build a democratic state.
I now see that our objectives have reduced to training up the Afghan security forces so they can support the Government. The decision to reduce our objectives is, I suppose, one way of getting our capabilities and objectives into line. However, we never had a clear objective, and our presence there has fuelled the insurgency; I have just made that point. It is our very presence as foreigners that has united the various forces in the Afghan opposition against us. They do not like foreigners on their soil, and I dare say we would not like them very much on ours. We should have cleared the Taliban out and then pursued a different strategy. We are there now and it is not that easy just to leave, but we should recognise that our presence produces and fuels the insurgency.
The biggest and most misleading of all the reasons given for our being in Afghanistan is that it makes the streets of Britain safe-it palpably does not. There were serious bombings here in 2005, most of which originated either here or in Pakistan, not in Afghanistan. The idea that al-Qaeda has no place to go aside from Afghanistan is nonsense, because there are masses of failed or semi-failed states around, some of which have been mentioned. Those that have not are in the Islamic part of north Africa-in Mali, in Mauritania and in the southern bits of some of the other countries there, which are not really under the control of their Governments. Al-Qaeda is already operating in those places and it has plenty of places to go to if we deny it Afghanistan. If we want to stop al-Qaeda bombing people on the streets of Britain, we have to do so with our own security and intelligence forces, not by fighting foreign wars, which are as likely to stir al-Qaeda up as deter it.
In no way do I intend to detract from the fantastic performance that our Army and military have put in. One could not read "A Million Bullets", as I have done, without being incredibly impressed at what these people have been doing. However, one had to ask at the end: what has been achieved by all that incredible bravery and loss of life? It was difficult to see that much had been sustained. What has been lacking is a clear political objective. If we had had one, we might have been able to put behind it the clear political support for which the hon. Member for Halton was calling. In times of economic hardship, it is also worth reflecting on how much this has cost. It has cost £12 billion and it is costing £3.5 billion a year, but the cost is not just the treasure-it is also the blood. Every Wednesday, we are reminded of the cost of this action in human life.
I am glad that President Obama is giving serious thought to what our mission should be and what resources we need to accomplish it, but I hope that those two things are matched up. I say that because one of the things that flows out of all these interventions is that they increase instability; we become the target by being in these places and we fuel terror and al-Qaeda, acting as a recruiting sergeant while these places act as a training ground for it. This is a bad precedent to set. We may think that it is good for us, but when Chinese marines invade the Philippines or-dare I say this-the Gulf, in pursuit of what they see as a humanitarian mission, we will regret inventing it
I hope that we will see an end to gratuitous moralising in the conduct of foreign policy in the next few years-I hope that will start at some point this spring. I hope that we will see intervention only when it can be quick and successful or where it is clearly and essentially in our national interest. I hope that we will stop seeing foreign policy, as we have so often seen it with Labour Foreign Secretaries, as some sort of reality TV show in which the Foreign Secretary of the day has to give his view on everything, irrespective of whether it is our business, and struts his stuff on the world stage, looking good and lecturing others. Foreign policy is about the long-term protection and enhancement of the United Kingdom's interests. Sometimes that will involve the promotion of democracy, but more often it will, and should be, about achieving stability.
6.33 pm
Mr. David Winnick (Walsall, North) (Lab): It is on the latter remarks about Afghanistan where I agree with the hon. Member for Stratford-on-Avon (Mr. Maples), because I have considerable doubts about our military presence there and how long British troops should be involved. However, as he said, none of that should in any way question the bravery of the troops, and again I pay tribute, as I did during a recent Prime Minister's Question Time, to the memory of those who have died in action and to those who have been seriously injured.
The decision, taken with other NATO powers, to engage in Afghanistan in 2001 was justified and I supported it. I cannot recall whether a vote took place on it, but I would certainly have voted in favour on any such vote. The Taliban refused to expel al-Qaeda following 9/11; they were given time to do so, but they refused and that was why military action started. I am not sure whether the hon. Gentleman took the view that I did at the time. There can also be no doubt as to the sheer brutality of Taliban rule, although that was not the reason for the invasion. The right hon. and learned Member for Kensington and Chelsea (Sir Malcolm Rifkind) was right to say that we did not go into Afghanistan because of the brutality of Taliban rule or drugs and so on; we went in for the reasons that I have just stated. In so far as the NATO presence has changed certain things for the better, for example, with the reopening of schools where women can be educated and the ending of barbaric practices carried out by the Taliban, that is obviously all to be welcomed. Nevertheless, the reason for the military intervention should not be forgotten because it is the basis for the justification for our being there; it arose from 9/11 and what was seen as the acute danger to our country, as well as to other NATO states.
That was eight years ago and it is perfectly understandable, given the casualties that occur week in, week out, that Afghanistan should so dominate today's debate. Eight years is a long time-the first world war lasted four years and the second world war lasted six years-which is why I asked my hon. Friend the Member for Halton (Derek Twigg), a former Defence Minister, about his comment about there being no time limit. Some of the contributions that we have heard today would give the impression that this began only recently-one, two or three years ago-whereas it began eight years ago. The question then arises, as it should do: how
much longer will this go on? It is all very well to say that there should be no time limit, but are we to work on the basis that another eight years should elapse and so many more should die? Why pick eight years? Why not operate on the basis of even longer, given that there appears to be no time limit of any kind? General Richards, who is now the Chief of the General Staff, said in August that
"the whole process"-
"might take as long as 30 to 40 years".
He did not say that the troop involvement should be of that duration, mentioning 2014 as a possible date for the ending of the British military intervention. Two years ago, the then commander of the UK forces in Helmand province was talking about British forces remaining there for more than 30 years.
There is undoubtedly much public concern and anxiety at the number of casualties and young lives being lost, but this is not simply about that. In 1979, 18 soldiers were killed by IRA vehicle bombs at Warrenpoint and although the reaction in this country was obviously one of deep anger, nobody suggested that because of the 18 that were murdered then or the others who had been murdered on other occasions we should leave Northern Ireland. It was clearly understood what the position was: there could be no question of Britain being forced out of Northern Ireland by terrorism. However, as the hon. Member for Stratford-on-Avon and others have said, questions are inevitably being asked about whether it is possible to achieve victory in Afghanistan and what sort of victory could be achieved. The right hon. Member for Richmond, Yorks (Mr. Hague) said that when we talk of victory-this is more or less a summary of what he said-we are not talking about what happened at the end of the second world war. So what is "victory" in Afghanistan? How long will it be before such a victory takes place, if one is at all possible?
The constant position of the Government and of the Opposition parties is, as has been set out today, that if we are not fighting in Afghanistan, we will be fighting on the streets of Britain-either we fight terrorism there or here. Although there is a question as to what we mean by "victory", let us suppose-this is very much a supposition-that the Taliban were so decisively defeated that they would be unable to make a comeback in years. Would we in Britain really then feel that much safer from terrorism? Would we let our guard down? Would we feel that the various measures taken to protect us from international terrorism would no longer be necessary because the Taliban had been defeated in Afghanistan? I simply do not accept the argument that this is a question of fighting either in Afghanistan or on the streets of Britain. There is so much concern among the public, as I have said, not only because of the casualties but because of the refusal of many people to understand why we should continue to stay in Afghanistan for such a long time.
As far as al-Qaeda is concerned, as others have said, if Afghanistan is closed to that organisation-the international terrorist network-will it close down? Are there not many other places around the globe, as we now know, where it can and does operate? It is very important to make a distinction between the Taliban,
however deplorable their position and their rule, and the international terrorist network. They are not one and the same, and we should not confuse the two.
Neither should we forget that the Taliban have numerous enemies inside Afghanistan. It is not simply a matter of the Taliban and NATO forces. When the Taliban were in power, they had many internal enemies, including rival warlords of various kinds. May I also say that those warlords do not seem to have a particularly distinguished record when it comes to human rights?
There is the danger that the Taliban will be seen in Afghanistan-a very poor country where many millions of people are desperate to secure a living-as having the legitimacy of fighting off the foreign intervention. They might be seen as the force fighting the infidels. It is interesting to note that the former high commissioner to Pakistan, Sir Nicholas Barrington, wrote to The Times that opinion formers in Pakistan, who are obviously very much opposed to the Taliban-even more so considering what the Taliban are doing in that country-are very critical of NATO action in Afghanistan. They believe that it is giving ammunition and legitimacy, however wrongly, to the Taliban as the patriotic force fighting the foreign intervention and invasion. We should not forget for one moment that the loss of civilian lives in Afghanistan gives ammunition to the Taliban, which they use. These people have been killed by the NATO action, which gives much political capital to the Taliban.
I am not in favour of immediate withdrawal. To those who challenge us today, saying, "Do you want to leave immediately?" I want to say that that is not my position. I do not believe that it would be the right approach. We recognise that we are one of the forces and one of the partners in NATO. Simply pulling out immediately or in the next few months would not, in my view, be wise. However, it is necessary to be clear in our minds that our intervention and presence in Afghanistan cannot be open-ended. That is why I believe that it is right to debate the issue. I am against extra troops going in-when the Prime Minister made that announcement, I made it clear that I am opposed to that and that if there were a vote on the issue of whether more troops should be sent, I would vote against such a move.
Let me conclude on this note. It is right, of course, for us to debate the issue. No doubt there will be many more debates. However, it is also important that in the near future-perhaps before this Parliament comes to a close-there should be a vote. I do not know at this stage what sort of motion or amendment that vote should be on, but I believe that it is necessary that we should not simply carry on on the basis of what we agreed to eight years ago. We should take a vote on how long we should be in Afghanistan and the House of Commons should make a decision once again, one way or the other. We should not simply continue as we are at the moment, with mounting casualties and public anxiety. Not only the public but many of us in the House of Commons are beginning to question whether what we are doing in Afghanistan serves any useful purpose in fighting international terrorism.
6.44 pm
Adam Price (Carmarthen, East and Dinefwr) (PC): Like the hon. Member for Walsall, North (Mr. Winnick), I want to concentrate on the war in Afghanistan-not only is it casting a long shadow over this debate, but it has cast a long shadow over this decade.
We have heard a range of views expressed this afternoon. Some, from my perspective, were a good deal less compelling than those of the hon. Member for Walsall, North. I was incredibly surprised to hear the right hon. Member for Haltemprice and Howden (David Davis) suggest that even if there were a 10 or 20 per cent. chance of success-even if we were convinced that there was an 80 or 90 per cent. chance of failure-we should still stay the course and send British servicemen and women into danger's way. That is the kind of military logic that we have not heard since the charge of the Light Brigade. It is irresponsible for us to put other people's lives at stake if we believe that this might all end in failure.
There are a range of views. My party would prefer to end the war, rather than extend it. However, it is vital that, whatever our views, we should have proper parliamentary accountability on the issue. The hon. Member for Walsall, North made the point that in this war, which has lasted eight years-one of the longest that we have ever had-we have never once had a vote on a substantive motion. We speak tonight on the eve of the Chilcot inquiry. One of the many scars that have been left by the Iraq war is the scar on public trust and confidence in the political process. There was an accountability gap, as public opinion was so clearly opposed to the war but unfortunately that was not reflected in the decisions made in this House. At least we had a vote on the Iraq war, however.
Up to 70 per cent. of the people of this country oppose the continuation of military involvement in Afghanistan, yet we cannot even have a commitment from the Government-unless the Minister is prepared to give it tonight in his winding-up speech-that we will have an opportunity before the general election for the Government to present their strategy, for the Opposition parties to set out their stalls and for the range of alternatives that we have heard in speeches this afternoon to be put to a vote in the House. Surely the people of this country deserve that, and the servicemen and women who are fighting in Afghanistan deserve to know that there has been proper accountability on this issue, which for them is a matter of life or death.
We have seen a range of different objectives-mission creep was mentioned earlier. We have ended up in a position where it would appear that the Government-I say "appear" because we have not had a succinct presentation of their strategy-have narrowed their objective to the idea of a stable, terrorist-free Afghanistan that does not threaten its neighbours.
The problem with the means which the Government suggest we use to arrive at that objective is that it could create its own problems and is not sustainable, as other Members have said. The emphasis is on building up the Afghan national army and bolstering the Afghan state. We are committed to building up the army to 134,000 and the police force to 80,000. The Afghan Defence Minister and some in the United States have suggested that the Afghan security forces have to be increased to 450,000. That would make Afghanistan the most militarised country in the world, with one in every 32 men in the armed forces. It would cost $2 billion to $3 billion a year to maintain, which is about five times the annual revenue of the Government of Afghanistan. Are we really saying that we shall support that level of Afghan
militarisation for the best part of half a century? If that is the Government's only strategy, it is unfortunately doomed to fail.
Never mind spreading liberal democracy around the world-we are spreading illiberal democracy around the world. Even if the strategy of training up the Afghan national army is a success-though there are real questions about that-we are creating the most centralised and militarised country in the world. The Afghan constitution is completely inappropriate for a country of that kind; it is a most centralised constitution, which places almost all power in the hands of one man-the President. We now know that he is deeply corrupt, yet we ask why a patronage state has developed around him.
Afghanistan is divided among 20 major ethnic groups. Within each ethnic group, there are tribes. In each tribe there are different clans, and within each clan there are different sections, yet we have concentrated power in the hands of one man but still ask why he has distributed it among his friends and family. We needed a totally different political strategy.
We can already see the effects. Afghanistan is an authoritarian military state. The independent Afghan human rights commission said-I hope the Minister is listening:
"Torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment is common in the majority of law-enforcement institutions",
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