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5 Jan 2010 : Column 166W—continued

Public Finance

Mr. Willetts: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer pursuant to his Department's publication Long-term public finance report: an analysis of fiscal sustainability, what the figures are which are represented by each bar in (a) the tables in box 5.B, page 39, (b) chart 6.B, page 45, (c) chart 6.C, page 46, (d) chart 6.D, page 47, (e) chart 6.E, page 48, (f) chart 6.F, page 50, (g) chart 6.H, page 52 and (h) chart 6.I, page 53. [307666]

Sarah McCarthy-Fry: The requested data from the 2009 Long-term public finance report are set out in the tables.

As noted in the 2009 Long-term public finance report, long-term fiscal projections, unlike forecasts, are not based on a detailed analysis of all relevant factors. They are an illustration of how spending and revenue would evolve under a set of given assumptions and should therefore be caveated as involving a high degree of uncertainty.

First chart from Box 5.B
GDP	2009	2019	2029	2039	2049	2059
ONS Principal	100	128	161	203	259	321
High longevity	100	128	161	204	260	323
Low fertility	100	128	160	199	248	300
Low life expectancy	100	128	161	203	258	319
Low migration	100	127	158	196	247	303
Low population	100	127	157	191	235	280
1.75 per cent. productivity	100	125	153	189	235	284
2.25 per cent. productivity	100	131	169	219	286	363

Second chart from Box 5.B
GDP per capita	2009	2019	2029	2039	2049	2059
ONS Principal	100	119	142	171	209	251
High longevity	100	119	141	169	205	244
Low fertility	100	121	145	173	212	252
Low life expectancy	100	120	142	173	213	258
Low migration	100	120	142	170	208	250
Low population	100	121	145	175.	215	260
1.75 per cent. productivity	100	117	135	159	189	222
2.25 per cent. productivity	100	123	149	184	231	283

5 Jan 2010 : Column 167W

5 Jan 2010 : Column 168W

Data from chart 6.B
Percentage
Health	2009-10	2019-20	2029-30	2039-40	2049-50	2059-60
High longevity	8.0	8.6	9.4	10.1	10.5	11.0
Low fertility	8.0	8.4	9.2	10.0	10.4	11.0
Low life expectancy	8.0	8.5	9.3	9.9	10.1	10.4
Low population	8.0	8.4	9.3	10.1	10.5	11.1
ONS Principal	8.0	8.5	9.3	10.0	10.3	10.7
2.25 Productivity	8.0	8.6	9.3	9.8	10.0	10.3
1.75 Productivity	8.0	8.5	9.4	10.2	10.7	11.2
Earnings and CPI growth	8.0	8.1	8.3	8.4	8.1	8.0
Falling drug prices	8.0	8.2	8.8	9.3	9.5	9.8
Healthy ageing	8.0	8.5	8.9	9.3	9.4	9.7

Data from chart 6.C
Percentage
Long-term care	2009-10	2019-20	2029-30	2039-40	2049-50	2059-60
High longevity	1.2	1.4	1.7	2.1	2.4	2.7
Low fertility	1.2	1.4	1.7	2.0	2.2	2.4
Low life expectancy	1.2	1.4	1.6	1.8	1.9	1.9
Low migration	1.2	1.4	1.7	2.0	2.2	2.3
Low population	1.2	1.4	1.7	1.9	2.0	2.0
ONS Principal	1.2	1.4	1.7	1.9	2.1	2.2
2.25 Productivity	1.2	1.4	1.7	2.0	2.1	2.3
1.75 Productivity	1.2	1.4	1.7	1.9	2.1	2.2
Constant health	1.2	1.4	1.6	1.7	1.8	1.9

Data from chart 6.D
Percentage
Education	2009-10	2019-20	2029-30	2039-40	2049-50	2059-60
High longevity	6.0	5.9	6.0	5.8	5.7	5.7
Low fertility	6.0	5.7	5.4	5.3	5.1	5.1
Low life expectancy	6.0	5.9	6.0	5.8	5.7	5.8
Low migration	6.0	5.9	5.9	5.8	5.7	5.8
Low population	6.0	5.7	5.4	5.3	5.1	5.1
ONS Principal	6.0	5.9	6.0	5.8	5.7	5.8
2.25 Productivity	6.0	6.0	6.0	5.9	5.7	5.8
1.75 Productivity	6.0	5.8	5.9	5.7	5.6	5.7

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