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8 Mar 2010 : Column 93W—continued

Prison Sentences

Mr. Burns: To ask the Secretary of State for Justice how many indeterminate sentences for public protection handed down (a) between 14 July and 31 December 2008 and (b) in 2009 were given with tariffs of fewer than 24 months. [320985]

Maria Eagle: I refer the hon. Member to the reply I gave him on 9 February 2010, Official Report, columns 944-45W.

Table 1 in that answer shows the number of offenders who have received an indeterminate sentence of imprisonment for public protection (IPP), if they are over 18 years of age, or a detention for public protection (DPP), if they are under 18 years of age, with a tariff of two years or less, as calculated from date of sentence to the date of tariff expiry. The figures shown are as notified to the National Offender Management Service (NOMS) at 5 February 2010.

The figures in that answer were taken from the Public Protection Unit Database (PPUD) in NOMS, and, as with any large scale recording system, it is subject to
8 Mar 2010 : Column 94W
possible errors arising from either data entry or processing. The PPUD is a live database, updated on a regular basis. As a result, snapshots taken in consecutive days will contain differences reflecting updates.

Mr. Burns: To ask the Secretary of State for Justice how many prisoners serving an indeterminate sentence for public protection have been in prison three or more years beyond their tariff; and how many of those prisoners are in an open prison. [320986]

Maria Eagle: As at 4 March 2010, there were 95 of prisoners serving an indeterminate sentence for public protection who have been in prison three or more years beyond their tariff. Of these, 10 were in open conditions. These figures include those prisoners being held within the juvenile and female estates.

The fact that a prisoner is held in custody past-tariff does not mean that he is being detained in custody unfairly. The tariff is the minimum period for punishment and deterrence which must be served before an indeterminate sentence prisoner may be considered for release.

However, whether the Parole Board will direct the release of tariff-expired indeterminate sentence prisoners depends on whether the board determines that it is no longer necessary, on the grounds of public protection, for that offender to be detained in custody.

The figures to answer each question were taken from the Public Protection Unit Database (PPUD) in the National Offender Management Service, and, as with any large scale recording system, it is subject to possible errors arising from either data entry or processing. The PPUD is a live database, updated on a regular basis. As a result, snapshots taken in consecutive days will contain differences reflecting updates.

Prisoners Release

Mr. Grieve: To ask the Secretary of State for Justice what estimate he has made of the size of the prison population in each month up to the end of 2015 following ending of the End of Custody Licence Scheme. [320059] [Official Report, 30 March 2010, Vol. 508, c. 7MC.]

Mr. Straw: The Ministry of Justice produces annual projections of the prison population in England and Wales, most recently in August 2009. These project the prison population under three different scenarios, based on different assumptions about future sentencing trends.

Other impacts included in the projections, such as those of legislation and processes, are applied equally to all scenarios. These cover the anticipated impacts of policy and process initiatives that have agreed implementation timetables. These assumptions and anticipated impacts have remained unchanged since 2008 projections.

End of Custody Licence (ECL) was introduced on 29 June 2007. Under this scheme a prisoner who was given a determinate custodial sentence between four weeks and four years can be released on licence up to 18 days before the end of their sentence.

Because there was no agreed timetable for its conclusion, its effect was included throughout the projection period. In the second half of 2009, the caseload of prisoners on ECL has been between 1,000 and 1,200:

http://www.justice.gov.uk/publications/endofcustodylicence.htm

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The scheme ends on 12 March this year as was recently announced. As result of this, it is expected that by the end of March 2010, the prison population will be 1,000 to 1,200 higher than was anticipated in the current published prison population projections.

This effect will carry on from March 2010 estimates onwards. Here are last year's projections plus 1,200:

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Number
	High	Medium	Low
2010
March	86,000	85,400	84,700
April	86,200	85,600	84,800
May	86,200	85,500	84,600
June	86,900	86,100	85,100
July	87,800	86,900	85,900
August	87,600	86,700	85,600
September	87,900	86,900	85,600
October	88,000	86,900	85,600
November	88,500	87,300	86,000
December	86,800	85,600	84,100
2011
January	87,700	86,400	84,800
February	88,000	86,600	84,900
March	89,000	87,600	85,800
April	88,900	87,300	85,500
May	89,200	87,500	85,600
June	89,800	88,100	86,100
July	90,400	88,600	86,500
August	90,400	88,500	86,400
September	90,500	88,600	86,400
October	90,600	88,600	86,400
November	90,800	88,700	86,400
December	88,600	86,400	84,000
2012
January	89,700	87,500	85,000
February	90,600	88,300	85,800
March	90,800	88,500	85,900
April	90,900	88,500	85,800
May	91,200	88,700	85,900
June	91,400	88,900	86,100
July	91,900	89,200	86,300
August	91,800	89,100	86,100
September	91,900	89,100	86,000
October	91,900	89,100	86,000
November	92,000	89,000	85,900
December	88,500	86,700	83,400
2013
January	89,500	87,700	84,300
February	90,400	88,500	85,100
March	90,600	88,600	85,100
April	90,600	88,500	85,000
May	90,900	88,700	85,100
June	91,100	88,800	85,200
July	91,500	89,200	85,400
August	91,400	89,000	85,200
September	91,500	89,000	85,100
October	91,500	89,000	85,000
November	91,600	89,000	85,000
December	89,400	86,700	82,600
2014
January	90,500	87,700	83,500
February	91,400	88,600	84,300
March	91,700	88,800	84,500
April	91,800	88,800	84,400
May	92,000	89,000	84,500
June	92,400	89,200	84,700
July	92,800	89,600	85,000
August	92,800	89,500	84,800
September	92,900	89,600	84,800
October	93,000	89,600	84,800
November	93,200	89,700	84,800
December	90,900	87,400	82,400
2015
January	92,000	88,400	83,400
February	93,000	89,300	84,200
March	93,300	89,500	84,300
April	93,400	89,500	84,300
May	93,600	89,700	84,400
June	93,900	89,900	84,500
Note: These figures will be revised in this year (2010) publication.

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