Memorandum submitted by the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) (ACC 30)

 

 

Summary

 

· Recent Government activity has responded to the challenge of adaptation and can now be considered to be on the right path to including adaptation in Government programmes.

· The initiatives prompted by the Climate Change Act, including the Adaptation Sub-Committee, the Climate Change Risk Assessment and the Reporting Powers,clearly demonstrate commitment and provide useful mechanisms.

· Much of this approach is predictably 'top-down'. Adaptation work in Government Departments needs to include more 'bottom-up' understanding to complement this initial 'top-down' approach.

· The Stern principle of investment now yielding benefits in due course is recognised but there is little evidence that this principle is informing current practice of resource allocation in Government or amongst most other agencies.

 

UKCIP

 

1. This submission to the EAC inquiry is based largely on UKCIP's work with a wide range of adaptation stakeholders in the UK, its understanding of the issues facing stakeholders, and the expertise that has been gained though this work. These introductory paragraphs provide a brief account of UKCIP's origins, aims and programme.

2. The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) helps organisations assess how they might be affected by climate change, so that they can prepare for its impacts. It is based at the University of Oxford, is principally funded by Defra, currently through a contract which ends in March 2011.

3. UKCIP was established in 1997 to help decision-makers generate the information they needed on climate change impacts to plan their response to climate change. A novel methodology was developed to provide this information, placing stakeholders at the heart of the research process. The approach has progressed from managing studies to facilitating the development of effective climate change partnerships and the provision of practical support for a wide range of stakeholders. Development has involved a shift in focus from natural systems to the built environment, and from impact assessments to risk-management and adaptation.

4. UKCIP's unique contribution has been in understanding adaptation practice and in sharing this understanding with stakeholders. So, theory informs practice, practice informs tools and guidance, and the application of guidance informs new theory.

5. UKCIP has gained an international reputation for its work which is probably distinguished by two main features: a) operating at arm's-length from government and b) working closely with stakeholders. These continue to provide UKCIP's distinctiveness and underpin its acknowledged success.

 

 

 

 

UKCIP Programme

 

6. UKCIP has been defined as a 'boundary organisation' that sits between and facilitates understanding between the three realms of 'science', 'policy' and 'stakeholders'.

7. The stated aims of UKCIP are to:

• improve knowledge and understanding of the impacts of climate change among stakeholders;

• help stakeholders to be better equipped to undertake adaptation to climate change.

8. The programme is now delivered by a team of 20 based in Oxford with an annual budget of around £1m. The present contract is due to end in March 2011 with the next contract being the subject of an ITT to be issued in mid-2010.

9. The following are the main stakeholders with whom UKCIP seeks to build adaptive capacity: Central Government; Devolved Administrations; Regional Governance and Regional Climate Change Impacts Partnerships; Local Governance; Private Sector; Research Community.

10. UKCIP's achievements are largely based upon the development of a set of 'tools' which support the UKCIP adaptation methodology. These include: the Risk Framework, the Adaptation Wizard, the Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP), the Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool (BACLIAT); Costing Tool; Socio-economic Scenarios; etc.

 

 

UKCIP relationship to Defra et al

 

11. UKCIP has always worked closely with Defra on adaptation issues. At the outset, UKCIP was answerable to just one or two Defra officers and this continued roughly until the end of 2007. Since its creation Defra's Adapting to Climate Change (ACC) team has quickly grown to its present complement of around 40. This is a powerful response by central government to increasing concerns for climate impacts but it has inevitably changed the relationship between UKCIP and Defra. Both parties are still exploring how to optimise this relationship. It is important that in this new relationship UKCIP is encouraged to retain its distinctiveness to complement this enhanced activity within government building on each others' strengths and expertise.

12. Important relationships also exist with other central agencies, for example English Nature and the Environment Agency. These agencies have increased their adaptation capacity and will be a vehicle for further partnership working in the future.

 

Central Government

13. UKCIP guidance makes an important distinction between a) Building Adaptive Capacity and b) Delivering Adaptation Actions. For Government Departments, Building Adaptive Capacity will be the more typical response. This will involve a wide range of initiatives including: surveys, research, impacts assessment, institutional review, policy review and development, training, adaptation options assessments, resource allocation, institutional change, etc. It is not clear that all Government Departments have appreciated the scope of such capacity building and particularly the necessary timescale and resources required.

14. This understanding may help departments to differentiate between two types of short-term priority-one involving the immediate defence of vulnerable systems, the other beginning the longer-term capacity building process outlined above.

15. Defra ACC has responded swiftly to the various requirements flowing from the Climate Change Act. The NAO review provides a quantitative understanding of progress on adaptation within OGDs which indicates that some Departments have begun to consider their resilience. This is to be welcomed.

16. The approach that has been adopted across whole Departments may not penetrate sufficiently into the individual divisions, agencies, etc. Our experience with all types of organisation has been that the vulnerability to a changing climate is very specific-specific to locality and specific to activity. A high-level review at departmental level will typically yield only generic risks. A more detailed assessment further down the organisation will yield a richer understanding that will invite consideration of practical adaptation responses. This will be the next stage for many Departments.

17. Government statements promote the idea of 'unavoidable climate change'. This recognises that the climate through to the 2040s is already determined by emissions made last century. This is a helpful concept as it promotes understanding of adaptation, but we have found that it does not invite serious consideration of the longer-term commitment to a changing climate that we will experience in the latter part of the century when the changes and impacts will be greater. It may help Departments initially to consider three broad timescales: current vulnerability; vulnerability to the 2040s; vulnerability beyond 2040 to 2100. This will not be a one-off exercise and such vulnerabilities must be the subject of further systematic review.

18. In addressing climate change there is general support for the integration of 'mitigation' and 'adaptation' agendas, particularly within central Government. UKCIP experience suggests that whilst this joined-up approach might appear intellectually sound, and remains a longer-term ambition, in practice it is not always helpful. It is still the case that generally, where the two climate change themes co-exist, the 'adaptation' component is marginalised. So, for example, the creation of DECC might have been seized as an opportunity to bring the two agendas together. In practice, at that time, the adaptation agenda might well have been marginalised, particularly given DECC's short-term mitigation priorities. It may be the case that adaptation is now sufficiently mature to co-exist with mitigation but this still needs careful consideration.

 

The Devolved Administrations

19. It appears that the prevailing culture of the wider political relationships between Westminster and the Devolved Administrations is limiting the potential for co-operation on adaptation work. Adaptation is a new topic for many, so, alternative approaches provide us with real opportunities for experiment, comparison and shared understanding. Such opportunities exist in the adaptation work of the Devolved Administrations both between the three DAs themselves and in both directions between the UK Government and the DAs. UKCIP is being encouraged by Defra and the DAs to ensure that tools are developed which are applicable in all settings and that examples of current practice are widely drawn. There is further scope here for co-operation at Government level to exploit the different adaptation experiences derived from the four different administrations.

 

Regional Governance and Regional Climate Change Impacts Partnerships

 

20. Because the climate and weather act locally, and therefore have local consequences, UKCIP has recognised the importance of work at a regional scale. It was instrumental in setting up Regional Climate Change Partnerships which now flourish in all English Regions and in two of the three DAs. Defra ACC has recognised the potential of these organisations and provided useful funds which have enabled enhanced co-ordinating/secretariat functions and some impressive stakeholder-led regional projects.

21. These partnerships will benefit from continued and increased support as they have created and sustain powerful networks of agencies in public and private sectors that are committed to dealing with resilience to a changing climate at a regional scale. The outputs from these partnerships are increasingly valuable. The partnerships are now co-operating, badged as Climate UK, to share their increasing understanding and work jointly on some projects.

22. The work of these partnerships is particularly important as the arrangements for formal regional governance in England are still very tentative and subject to radical change or removal. There is no evidence to suggest that Defra ACC will continue to fund the partnerships.

 

Local Government

 

23. Local authorities are regarded by many as the key delivery agents of adaptation. This reflects the fact that weather acts locally, that critical services, many of which are vulnerable to climate change, are delivered by local authorities and that local authorities have overall, statutory responsibility (with their LSP partners) for the well-being of local communities.

24. Initially the main driver for climate change work in local authorities was the Nottingham Declaration Partnership. Since 2006, the declaration has embraced adaptation as well as mitigation, UKCIP was an active partner, and the Nottingham Declaration website provided extensive guidance.

25. Since then the new Performance Framework has proved to be a greater influence through the National Indicator NI188 (Planning to Adapt to Climate Change). The use of a 'process-based' indicator has been particularly effective. Despite some high-level opposition Defra succeeded in securing this approach. Feedback on NI188 has been very positive. It is strongly recommended that a similar 'process-based' approach is adopted for the next round of the Performance Framework.

26. UKCIP has been an important part of the delivery team in a support programme for local authorities which is planned to continue to the end of the CSR. This has been delivered, in part, through a series of regional workshops, initially structured around the sequence of levels in NI188. This has provided the opportunity to appreciate the challenges faced by local authorities across the country and the various responses made. In general we have been impressed by the significant level of engagement amongst councils, particularly those that have signed up for NI188 as part of their Local Area Agreement.

27. Nevertheless, we have found that councils, particularly District Councils, have identified a serious lack of resources (ie staff) in taking forward this agenda. In some cases this has been resolved through partnership and co-operation between neighbouring authorities. This approach is to be commended and encouraged.

28. In terms of the support available to councils, officers have made critical comparisons with the level and quality of support provided by the Carbon Trust and Energy Saving Trust for local authority work on mitigation. UKCIP has been asked to make representations for similar levels of support for adaptation.

 

The Private Sector

 

29. The relationship between Government and business is notoriously challenging, particularly in identifying how commercial drivers can be identified in new policy areas. Adaptation is no different. So, UKCIP has developed messages that distance the adaptation agenda from the mitigation agenda and has worked with concepts such as: business risks; business continuity; market threats and opportunities. Even so, engagement of the private sector has been slow, with a few exceptions (eg water companies and insurance) and UKCIP's networks with individual businesses were characterised as limited to an 'alliance of the willing'!

30. This culture has changed, even in the last 18 months, and we are now approached for guidance by individual businesses. These have tended to be the larger companies, often with a global reach, and include several large multi-disciplinary consultancies working on the built environment.

31. Nevertheless our main work has been with business-facing organisations. This has included:

· a series of programmes with professional institutions and trade associations (under the banner of 'A Changing Climate for Business');

· working on sectoral projects with selected RDAs;

· working with the CBI Adaptation Working Group on a new adaptation publication to be launched in Spring 2010;

· working with SMEs through business support organisations such as Business Link, the Federation of Small Businesses;

· working with the Institute of Environmental Management and Assessment (IEMA) including an extensive CPD programme and a joint publication on adaptation in IEMA's Practitioner Guide series.

32. The work with individual businesses has largely been structured around the UKCIP Adaptation Wizard and associated tools. Further tools are under development based upon the increasing experience of working with individual companies.

33. Defra ACC now includes a small team dedicated to working with business. The ACC work programme has been developed alongside that of UKCIP that maximise the potential of each team with complementary roles-ACC using its leverage and influence at a policy level and UKCIP working on a 1-to-1 basis with individual companies.

34. UKCIP and ACC are working together with the British Standards Institute (BSI) to prepare an adaptation supplement to accompany existing business standards (such as ISO9000 and ISO14000).

35. As part of the wider programme with OGDs, ACC will be working with the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) to develop and implement appropriate business policies.

 

Third Sector

 

36. The third sector has just begun to consider adaptation and we are aware of some recent initiatives in this area. These include: a major research programme funded by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (Social Implications of Climate Change); a set of four practical projects co-ordinated by the Baring Foundation; and a taskforce jointly chaired by Defra, Department of Energy and Climate Change and Cabinet Office ministers and third sector representatives. The taskforce aims to identify specific actions that Government and the third sector can take together to tackle climate change, environmental problems and sustainable development more broadly. The Department for Communities and Local Government will also be represented on the taskforce. The secretariat for the taskforce is being provided by Green Alliance and the National Council for Voluntary Organisations (NCVO).

 

UK Climate Projections (UKCP09)

 

37. The release of the latest climate projections for the UK in the 21st century (UKCP09) has proved to be a major catalyst for engaging stakeholders with the adaptation agenda as well as providing a powerful technical resource for risk-based decision-making. There are though several concerns with the new data set.

38. The projections do not provide us with direct information on the impacts and consequences of changing weather. They only suggest how the weather might behave and much work remains to be done in order to understand impacts and consequences, and then to explore adaptation options.

39. The probabilistic format will in due course facilitate sophisticated risk-based decision-making. However, the format presents considerable complexity for mainstream stakeholders. It may take several years for the adaptation community and general policy-makers to agree on how best to use this considerable resource.

40. In particular it is important that expectations are managed and that some significant policy implications are investigated and resolved. Government departments do not appear to have recognised the challenge of incorporating the probabilistic data into policy and guidance. (For example DCLG responsibilities on such as Building Regulations and Planning Policy Statements.)

41. The interface between the projections and policy needs serious attention in many departments. Understanding in this area is desirable before the brief for a further set of climate projections is confirmed.

42. The evidence from climate-science, and from international agreements on emissions, suggests the increasing possibility of higher levels of emissions than represented in the UKCP09 projections. We are being asked to provide projections based upon these higher emissions, using the same format as UKCP09, in order that stakeholders can understand the UK impacts of higher global temperatures.

 

The future of adaptation in the UK

 

43. UK is in advance of other developed countries in its progress on adaptation.

44. It has probably not yet built sufficient public or general understanding and appreciation of the need for adaptation, but this is a slow process and some progress is being made.

45. There has been significant progress in some areas in raising the profile of adaptation-work with local authorities, the latest set of projections, the national risk assessment, and UKCIP tools and resources are good examples.

46. Adaptation work in Government Departments needs to include more 'bottom-up' understanding to complement the initial 'top-down' approach.

47. It is important that that the distinctive characteristics and achievements of the previous UKCIP programme are recognised in defining its future programme and that appropriate resources are committed to this cause.

 

November 2009