Examination of Witnesses (Question Numbers
560-579)
MR QUENTIN
DAVIES MP, GENERAL
SIR KEVIN
O'DONOGHUE AND
VICE ADMIRAL
PAUL LAMBERT
15 DECEMBER 2009
Q560 Chairman: So you do not know
the answer.
Vice Admiral Lambert: No, it is
still part of work we are conducting.
Q561 Chairman: So there might be
a gap.
Vice Admiral Lambert: At the moment
I cannot say whether there is gap or not; it is still part of
work we are undertaking.
Mr Davies: We have got one refit.
Q562 Linda Gilroy: When we spoke
about the Illustrious carrying on before, we were told
that there would not be any additional cost because it was due
for a maintenance refit anyway.
Mr Davies: That is right.
Q563 Linda Gilroy: Is that under
reconsideration?
Mr Davies: No.
Q564 Linda Gilroy: So what would
be the problem about continuing?
Vice Admiral Lambert: As I said,
the full capability planned for Carrier Strike is we are making
sure, as we plot out the capabilities right across the piece,
that there is not going to be a gap, but I cannot give that assurance
at the moment.
Q565 Chairman: Minister, do you remember
telling this Committee that there was going to be no defence cost
to the country whatever by delaying the carriers?
Mr Davies: Yes, I do, and I said
"defence capability cost". I remember we had an exchange
about that. I did not say "financial cost". I would
have recognised if we had a financial cost, but there is no defence
capability cost.
Q566 Chairman: What about this gap
that we have just heard about?
Mr Davies: You must not interpret
Admiral Lambert's remarks as being to say that there is going
to be a gap. He has not completed the procedures to make sure
that there is not going to be a gap. As Mrs Gilroy has just said,
before we had an issue about delaying the new Carrier Programme,
we had already factored in a refit for Illustrious, which
takes forward capability for several years, and so I am confident
that we will be able to reassure you once Admiral Lambert has
completed his studies, but, as a cautious individual, until he
has completed his study he does not want to give you a more definite
response. Is that correct?
Vice Admiral Lambert: That is
absolutely right. It is the first time we have looked at all the
lines of development for both the current carrier programme and
the future carrier programme, and within that there is a complicated
programme of transition between different aircraft, different
ships, and until we have competed that work I would not like to
say that I can guarantee there would be no gap. It is working
away at the moment.
Mr Davies: The purpose of conducting
these studies is, by definition, that until you have completed
them you cannot give a certificate saying, "I am certain
that there will not be a gap."
Q567 Chairman: Do you not think this
is something you ought to have considered before the decision
to delay the carriers was taken?
Vice Admiral Lambert: Yes, but—
Q568 Chairman: Did you not consider
it?
Vice Admiral Lambert: Yes, we
did, but, again, as I said, we are looking at all the lines of
development and until that work is complete I cannot give that
assurance.
Q569 Chairman: Can you?
Mr Davies: Chairman, I have already
said that I believe that the Illustrious refit, which is
already in the programme, or was in the programme (it was already
provided for financially), will carry forward Illustrious'
life for quite a number of years, and that will take us, certainly,
beyond the time at which we are expecting to bring the new carriers
into service.
Q570 Chairman: You have just heard
the Admiral unable to give that assurance.
Mr Davies: He has not completed
his procedures, but I am reasonably confident that will happen.
Q571 Chairman: Why should you be
if he is not?
Mr Davies: I do not think he is
unconfident, but he has not completed his procedures. It is a
little bit like a doctor who will not issue a death certificate
until he has carried out an autopsy even though you may have a
pretty good guess as to why the patient died.
Q572 Mr Crausby: If there is a gap,
will you rethink the programme? I know you do not want to issue
a death certificate until you know why the patient has died, but
what a doctor is there to do is prevent the patient from dying.
Mr Davies: Absolutely.
Q573 Mr Crausby: So it seems to me
sensible that you would want to prevent the gap.
Vice Admiral Lambert: If at the
end of our analysis we find that there is a gap, we will look
to see what it is, what the risks are and whether we can cover
those risks. Our premise is that we want to ensure that capability
is maintained throughout that transitional period.
Q574 Chairman: Why on earth did you
not complete this analysis before making a decision to delay the
carriers?
Vice Admiral Lambert: The initial
analysis was done. What I am saying at the moment is we are doing
some deeper analysis to ensure that I can give that reassurance
that across all the lines of development there are no risks which
are likely to come good that could cause a gap, and that is working
away.
Q575 Chairman: What was the purpose
of the initial analysis?
Vice Admiral Lambert: The initial
analysis will look at individual programmes.
Q576 Chairman: What was the purpose
of the initial analysis that gave you some confidence of which
you are now not able to assure the Committee?
Vice Admiral Lambert: The initial
analysis will look just at single programmes. What we are doing
here is looking at a complicated transition of a number of programmes
across a whole series of lines of development, and it is normal
work that we would do with a complicated programme.
Q577 Chairman: It is perfectly normal,
is it, to have a gap in capability of something as large as aircraft
carriers?
Vice Admiral Lambert: No, it is
not, but I have said before our normal process, once we have made
any changes, is to go back and revisit the decisions to make sure
that we have not missed anything out, and that process is being
undertaken at the moment.
Q578 Chairman: But your default position,
then, is that you think you may have missed something out, because
otherwise you would say, "We are just double checking this,
but, no, we can give you that confident assurance." But you
have not said that.
Vice Admiral Lambert: I have said
that we are conducting the work at the moment.
Mr Davies: I think it does fall
into the category of, "We are just double-checking this."
Is that not the case?
Chairman: Perhaps you could conduct your
discussions back in the Ministry.
Q579 Mr Hamilton: The only point
I make—and I am looking at the route programme here, the
schedule that is in there (and Linda asked the question)—is
that apart from the gap that may or may not happen, there will
also be a cost implication if that is delayed again. Was that
considered when you decided to knock back the carrier again?
Vice Admiral Lambert: If there
is a risk, we will see what we need to do to cover that risk.
There may be a cost implication. There are other ways of covering
risks other than using finance.
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