Supplementary memorandum submitted by
Desertec
THE POTENTIAL
OF RENEWABLES
There is no question that renewables can meet
the UK's demands for energy, not just electricity, and anticipated
future demands (see below). Here is some of the evidence:
— A network of land-based 2.5-megawatt
(MW) turbines restricted to nonforested, ice-free, nonurban areas
operating at as little as 20% of their rated capacity could supply
more than 40 times current worldwide consumption of electricity
and more than five times total global use of energy in all forms.
There is additional potential in offshore wind farms. See Global
potential for wind-generated electricity (Xi Lua, Michael B McElroya,
and Juha Kiviluomac, Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences of the United States of America, June 22, 2009, doi:
10.1073/pnas.0904101106, http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/06/19/0904101106.full.pdf+html).
— The "economically competitive potential"
of wind power in Europe is three times projected demand for electricity
in 2020 and seven times projected demand in 2030. Offshore wind
power alone could meet between 60% and 70% of projected European
demand for electricity in 2020 and about 80% of projected demand
in 2030. See Europe's onshore and offshore wind energy potential
(European Environment Agency, 2009, http://www.mng.org.uk/gh/resources/Europes_onshore_and_offshore_wind_energy_potential.pdf).
The UK is one of the windiest parts of Europe.
— Renewable sources of power can provide
100 percent of the world's energy (not just electricity) and it
is technically feasible to make the transition by 2030. See "A
path to sustainable energy by 2030", an article by Mark Z
Jacobson and Mark A Delucchi in the November 2009 issue of Scientific
American, and Review of solutions to global warming, air pollution,
and energy security (Mark Z Jacobson, Energy & Environmental
Science, 2009, 2, 148-173). See also the interactive presentation
about this research: Powering a green planet: sustainable energy,
made interactive (Scientific American, November 2009). These articles
review research showing that there are more than enough renewable
sources of power to meet all of the world's energy needs, not
just electricity. In the scenario described in the Scientific
American article, wind supplies 51% of the demand worldwide, provided
by 3.8 million large wind turbines (each rated at five megawatts).
Although that quantity may sound enormous, it is interesting to
note that the world manufactures 73 million cars and light trucks
every year. An interesting conclusion of this research is that,
because there would be much less wastage of energy in a renewables
scenario, total world demand for power in 2030 would be 11.5 terawatts,
using renewables, compared with 16.9 terawatts if we were to stick
with conventional sources of energy.
— The variability of sources such as wind
power is much less of an issue than is sometimes suggested, as
described in Managing Variability (Greenpeace, WWF, RSPB, Friends
of the Earth, July 2009, http://www.trec-uk.org.uk/reports/milborrow_managing_variability_final_July_2009.pdf).
Fluctuations in wind strength can be managed technically and at
modest and declining cost, high proportions of wind power are
feasible in the UK's energy mix, and new technological developments
could allow for a steadily increasing use of wind power and the
phasing out of conventional carbon based fuels as a backup technology.
See also "Matching variable electricity supplies with variable
demands", http://www.trec-uk.org.uk/elec_eng/supply_demand.html.
— Photovoltaics (PV) could generate about
266 TWh in the UK—about 66% of the UK's present electricity
demand. See Renewable Energy and Combined Heat and Power Resources
in the UK", Tyndall Centre, 2002, http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/sites/default/files/wp22.pdf).
PV is quick and simple to install.
— Using concentrating solar power (CSP),
less than 1% of the world's deserts could produce as much electricity
as the world is using. Less than 5% of the world's deserts could
produce electricity equivalent to the world's total energy demand.
These calculations, which are quite conservative, are based on
research from the German Aerospace Centre (DLR). Although it would
be possible to obtain all the world's energy from deserts, there
are several reasons why Europe and the UK (and other regions and
countries) should use a variety of renewable sources of power,
as described in the TRANS-CSP report from the DLR which may be
downloaded via links from http://www.trec-uk.org.uk/reports.htm.
— The government's own plans for the growth
in renewables and energy conservation can ensure adequate generating
capacity in the UK until at least the mid 2020s. See Implications
of the UK meeting its 2020 renewable energy target (Pyry Energy
(Oxford) Ltd for WWF-UK and Greenpeace-UK, August 2008, http://www.mng.org.uk/gh/resources/Implications_of_UK_
renewable_energy_targetv1.0.pdf).
— There are several other reports on how
to decarbonise the world's economies via renewables and the conservation
of energy, without using nuclear power. A more comprehensive list,
with notes and download links, is on http://www.mng.org.uk/gh/scenarios.htm.
FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS
Electrification of road and rail transport in
the UK would add to the UK's demand for electricity but not as
much as one might think:
— In terms of energy, about 50% more electricity
would be needed (see Appendix 8 of "Energy UK" (http://www.mng.org.uk/gh/resources/energy_UK3.pdf).
The reason it is not more is that electric motors are very much
more efficient than internal combustion engines. Much of the energy
that we are using now for overland transport is simply wasted.
— In practice, the additional amount of
generating capacity that will be required is likely to be less
than 50%. This is for two reasons:
— It is likely that much of the charging
of electric vehicles will be done at night when there is likely
to be a lot of spare capacity from sources such as wind power.
To that extent, it does not add to the generating capacity that
would be required.
— The electrification of road transport
will facilitate the introduction of grid-to-vehicle technologies
allowing two-way flows of electricity between vehicles that are
on charge and the transmission grid. This will help to keep demands
for electricity in balance with supplies, thus helping to minimise
the amount of spare capacity that is required.
It seems likely that, in the future, there will
be increasing use of electrically-driven heat pumps to provide
space heating in buildings. But, with good insulation of buildings
and the use of technologies such as inter-seasonal heat transfer
(see, for example, http://www.howedell.herts.sch.uk/eco_issues/sustainable_elements.
pdf), residual needs for the heating of buildings should be small.
ENERGY COSTS
In weighing up the pros and cons of various
sources of power, there is a need to take account of the fact
that energy markets are distorted:
— In a report published in 2004 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3818995.stm)
the New Economics Foundation made a conservative estimate that
worldwide subsidies for fossil fuels amounted to about $235 billion
a year—and there seems not to have been much change since
then.
— The continued existence of subsidies
for oil, gas and coal is confirmed by recent reports that the
G20 countries intend to remove them (see, for example, http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE58O3RN20090925).
— Contrary to what is sometimes suggested,
nuclear power is heavily subsidised. The subsidies are described
in a report from the Energy Fair group that may be downloaded
via a link from http://www.nonukes.org.uk/home.
— There is still no global cap on emissions
of CO2 and schemes such as the EU ETS are not working
properly. For those kinds of reasons, the price of CO2
emissions is far too low.
Removal of these distortions would transform
our perception of what is or is not "economic". It is
likely that most renewable sources of electricity would be seen
to be cheaper than electricity from fossil fuels or nuclear power.Removal
of these distortions would mean that we could begin to wind down
the "arms race" of subsidies (see http://www.nonukes.org.uk/reducing-subsidies).
November 2009
|
