Memorandum submitted by the Met Office
SUMMARY
— Adapting to climate change presents
new and complex challenges for science
Detailed projections at a local level present significant
challenges to today's science—yet deepening understanding
of regional and local changes in weather patterns is fundamental
to ensuring appropriate, targeted and cost-effective adaptation
strategies are developed.— Costly adaptation decisions
must be based on robust scientific evidence
Major investment decisions should be informed by
better regional climate information. Science advice should be
provided based on the best understanding we have now but adaptation
strategies and planning must remain flexible enough to respond
to new research and developing technologies that enable the delivery
of breakthrough science and increased capabilities.— Climate
change risk assessment is effectively based on a weather sensitivity
analysis
When weather sensitivities and particular vulnerabilities
are fully and expertly understood, and taken alongside the most
robust forecasts for change, adaptation plans can be most cost-effective.
— Weather forecast services can be an
important and cost effective method of responding to climate change
Flood prevention, for example, has significant costs
attached but we are already seeing, through the creation of the
Flood Forecasting Centre, how warnings can make a positive contribution
to an appropriate flood risk management strategy. Warnings will
also be vital in future heatwaves if we are to avoid a repetition
of 2003, which saw in excess of 30,000 lives lost across Europe.
— Developments in capability will make
increasingly important contributions
As capability continues to develop, seasonal and
decadal forecasts will increasingly contribute to planning by
informing adaptation timescales—especially where natural
climate variability overlays the long-term change in climate.
— National capability could be better
exploited
The Met Office is a valuable national capability
that could be better exploited across Government in a fully integrated
climate research programme.
Adapting to climate change presents new and complex
challenges for science
1. Although there is a general consensus
on the broad features of expected climate change, there are still
uncertainties, particularly when considering how the climate may
change locally. This, taken with the fact that historical climatologies
will not describe the future, means adaptation presents new and
complex problems for science to address.
2. The focus of climate science, and therefore
its development, has until recently been on mitigation. However,
it is now globally accepted that previous and current levels of
anthropogenic emissions will make some amount of climate change
unavoidable—regardless of future mitigation activities.
Strong mitigation, like that described in the UK Climate Change
Act, will reduce future climate change but it will not eliminate
it. Consistent mitigation and adaptation advice therefore are
needed in the UK and globally to underpin sound and ongoing decision-making.
3. The inability to use the past to judge
the probability of future severe weather events is especially
significant given that we are already seeing strong signs for
increased frequency and/or intensity of some types of severe weather:
the number and intensity of extreme winter rainfall events will
increase; summer showers are likely to be heavier; and the risk
of heatwaves such as the one experienced over Europe in 2003 has
doubled—with these likely to be commonplace by the 2040s.
4. Deepening understanding of the impacts
of a changing global climate on severe events and regional and
local weather patterns is fundamental in ensuring appropriate,
targeted and cost-effective adaptation strategies are developed.
However, detailed projections at this local level present significant
challenges to today's science—current global models have
a grid spacing of 150km (due to increase to 90km with the next
generation of models) and so there are severe limitations on providing
detailed local advice suitable for planning.
Costly adaptation decisions must be based on robust
scientific evidence
5. Although uncertainties exist, the strengths
and weaknesses of the body of evidence on climate change are well
understood by the Met Office. This depth of understanding is vital
if the UK is to avoid being paralysed under the weight of what
can appear to competing messages.
6. Similarly, failure to recognise climate projections
as containing uncertainties can be just as detrimental. The reality
in many areas is that decisions need to be based on a balance
of probabilities. Some conclusions are likely to be very well
founded and others less certain. Strategy and policy needs to
be developed in full recognition of the associated uncertainties
and, if required, to accommodate them directly.
7. Likewise, science advice should be provided
based on the best understanding we have now but adaptation strategies
and planning must remain flexible enough to respond to new research
and developing technologies that enable the delivery of breakthrough
science and increased capabilities.
8. Much of the investment that will be required
for adaptation is extremely expensive. With respect to infrastructure
in particular (where much of the activity will be required in
response to changing local, extreme events), it is vital that
costly adaptation decisions are based on robust scientific evidence:
to minimise costs, as well as risks to infrastructure and life.
For example, flood defence costs for the UK run to several hundred
million pounds per year, and are likely to rise.
Climate change risk assessment is effectively
based on a weather sensitivity analysis
9. If climate can best be described as the
typical weather conditions experienced over a long period in a
given area, then adapting to a changing climate is best thought
of as adapting to changes in local, regional and global weather
patterns. Climate change risk assessment is therefore, in effect,
an analysis of weather sensitivity. It is only when these sensitivities
and particular vulnerabilities are fully and expertly understood,
and taken alongside the most robust forecasts for change, that
adaptation plans can be most cost-effective.
10. In addition to human-driven climate change,
the climate varies naturally and so adaptation strategies must
accommodate both unavoidable climate change and natural climate
variability. This requires a deeper understanding of sensitivities
to climate change and variability, and an improved ability to
forecast climate change and climate variability and their impacts.
It is the combination of climate prediction and weather forecasting
capability that will ensure a coherent response to the challenges
presented by climate change.
Weather forecast services can be an important
and cost-effective method of responding to climate change
11. Weather forecasting and warning services
will provide an increasingly important element of adaptation strategies—particularly
where other responses prove inappropriate or too costly.
12. Flood prevention, as mentioned earlier, has
significant costs attached but we are already seeing, through
the creation of the Flood Forecasting Centre, how warnings can
make a positive contribution to an appropriate flood risk management
strategy. Warnings will also be vital in future heatwaves if we
are to avoid a repetition of 2003 which saw in excess of 30,000
lives lost across Europe.
13. As capability continues to develop,
seasonal and decadal forecasts will increasingly contribute to
planning by informing adaptation timescales—especially where
natural climate variability overlays the long-term change in climate.
14. A major impact of a changing global
climate is already being seen in food production, where changing
weather patterns will force changes in agricultural practices;
knowing how the climate in the UK will change locally—and
on what timescale—is vital to ensure our own agricultural
well-being.
15. Although the UK has its own domestic
challenges, not least in changing incidents of severe weather
and protecting our critical national infrastructure, it also has
a significant interest in international development. Water, food
and energy are resources already challenged in many parts of the
world—but science expertise is concentrated in developed
countries.
16. Strategic forward planning and assessment
of areas of current and future vulnerability are vital to ensuring
developing countries are best equipped to adapt to changing weather
patterns. Realistic projections of future climate change and its
impacts on a regional scale can play a role in long-term planning.
Forecasting climate variations on decadal and seasonal timescales
will help inform adaptation options and priorities.
Developments in capability will make increasingly
important contributions
17. Developing capability in forecasting
on all timescales is vital if every option in responding to the
challenges and opportunities presented by a changing climate is
to be exploited to its fullest.
18. Operational weather forecasting and warning
services have obvious and immediate uses and benefits but, with
climate extremes expected to become more frequent under future
climate change, seasonal forecasts will become increasingly important
as early warning tools for public and national infrastructure.
The Met Office is pushing the boundaries of science in this field
and we have already shown they are able to provide valuable advice
on both a domestic and international front: seasonal forecasts
are currently used to great effect in areas such as forecasting
North Sea winter wave heights and forecasting the wet season in
Africa.
19. A second breakthrough in capability
comes with decadal forecasting which is being developed by incorporating
initial environmental conditions into climate models. These forecasts
are specifically aimed at providing better guidance on short-term
climate variations on a regional scale, making them an ideal tool
in risk-based decision-making where probability of a likely outcome
is required.
20. One of the most important and well-known
examples of natural variability is the El Niño Southern
Oscillation. El Niño affects sea surface temperatures in
the tropical Pacific, causing them to swing from relatively warm
to relatively cool every few years, with consequential changes
to weather patterns around the world. Encouragingly, the Met Office's
decadal forecasting system predicts El Niño for the first
15-18sp;>months with more skill than climate models which do
not incorporate initial conditions.
21. Long-term climate projections are also
increasingly possible and will prove invaluable in planning and
prioritising funding—50-year projections, for example, are
vital when making decisions about large-scale infrastructure upgrades
and/or replacements, such as the Thames Barrier.
National capability could be better exploited
22. The Met Office employs around 400 of
the world's leading experts in climate science and undertakes
and facilitates significant research in the field. Importantly,
and uniquely, it is also able to integrate breakthrough developments
in science into fully operational climate and weather forecasting
services, quickly and with a true end-user focus. This makes us
ideally placed to lead coordination with research councils to
ensure a sensible programme of pull-though to operational services.
23. This national capability could be even better
exploited across Government. A fully integrated climate research
programme would ensure all parties are able to use and respond
to the same information base. Common issues would become apparent
thereby ensuring research was better targeted—with the risk
of multiple funding of core research eliminated. This pay once,
use many times approach would allow Departments to fund directly
only those services specifically required for their policy area.
2 November 2009
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