Memorandum submitted by the UK Climate
Impacts Programme (UKCIP)
SUMMARY
— Recent Government activity has responded
to the challenge of adaptation and can now be considered to be
on the right path to including adaptation in Government programmes.—
The initiatives prompted by the Climate Change Act, including
the Adaptation Sub-Committee, the Climate Change Risk Assessment
and the Reporting Powers,clearly demonstrate commitment and provide
useful mechanisms.
— Much of this approach is predictably
"top-down"'. Adaptation work in Government Departments
needs to include more "bottom-up" understanding to complement
this initial "top-down" approach.
— The Stern principle of investment now
yielding benefits in due course is recognised but there is little
evidence that this principle is informing current practice of
resource allocation in Government or amongst most other agencies.
UKCIP
1. This submission to the EAC inquiry is
based largely on UKCIP's work with a wide range of adaptation
stakeholders in the UK, its understanding of the issues facing
stakeholders, and the expertise that has been gained though this
work. These introductory paragraphs provide a brief account of
UKCIP's origins, aims and programme.
2. The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)
helps organisations assess how they might be affected by climate
change, so that they can prepare for its impacts. It is based
at the University of Oxford, is principally funded by Defra, currently
through a contract which ends in March 2011.
3. UKCIP was established in 1997 to help
decision-makers generate the information they needed on climate
change impacts to plan their response to climate change. A novel
methodology was developed to provide this information, placing
stakeholders at the heart of the research process. The approach
has progressed from managing studies to facilitating the development
of effective climate change partnerships and the provision of
practical support for a wide range of stakeholders. Development
has involved a shift in focus from natural systems to the built
environment, and from impact assessments to risk-management and
adaptation.
4. UKCIP's unique contribution has been
in understanding adaptation practice and in sharing this understanding
with stakeholders. So, theory informs practice, practice informs
tools and guidance, and the application of guidance informs new
theory.
5. UKCIP has gained an international reputation
for its work which is probably distinguished by two main features:
(a) operating at arm's-length from government and (b) working
closely with stakeholders. These continue to provide UKCIP's distinctiveness
and underpin its acknowledged success.
UKCIP PROGRAMME
6. UKCIP has been defined as a "boundary
organisation" that sits between and facilitates understanding
between the three realms of "science", "policy"
and "stakeholders".
7. The stated aims of UKCIP are to:
— improve knowledge and understanding of
the impacts of climate change among stakeholders; and
— help stakeholders to be better equipped
to undertake adaptation to climate change.
8. The programme is now delivered by a team
of 20 based in Oxford with an annual budget of around £1
million. The present contract is due to end in March 2011 with
the next contract being the subject of an ITT to be issued in
mid-2010.
9. The following are the main stakeholders
with whom UKCIP seeks to build adaptive capacity: Central Government;
Devolved Administrations; Regional Governance and Regional Climate
Change Impacts Partnerships; Local Governance; Private Sector;
Research Community.
10. UKCIP's achievements are largely based
upon the development of a set of "tools" which support
the UKCIP adaptation methodology. These include: the Risk Framework,
the Adaptation Wizard, the Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP),
the Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool (BACLIAT);
Costing Tool; Socio-economic Scenarios; etc.
UKCIP RELATIONSHIP
TO DEFRA
ET AL
11. UKCIP has always worked closely with
Defra on adaptation issues. At the outset, UKCIP was answerable
to just one or two Defra officers and this continued roughly until
the end of 2007. Since its creation Defra's Adapting to Climate
Change (ACC) team has quickly grown to its present complement
of around 40. This is a powerful response by central government
to increasing concerns for climate impacts but it has inevitably
changed the relationship between UKCIP and Defra. Both parties
are still exploring how to optimise this relationship. It is important
that in this new relationship UKCIP is encouraged to retain its
distinctiveness to complement this enhanced activity within government
building on each others' strengths and expertise.
12. Important relationships also exist with
other central agencies, for example English Nature and the Environment
Agency. These agencies have increased their adaptation capacity
and will be a vehicle for further partnership working in the future.
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT
13. UKCIP guidance makes an important distinction
between (a) Building Adaptive Capacity and (b) Delivering Adaptation
Actions. For Government Departments, Building Adaptive Capacity
will be the more typical response. This will involve a wide range
of initiatives including: surveys, research, impacts assessment,
institutional review, policy review and development, training,
adaptation options assessments, resource allocation, institutional
change, etc. It is not clear that all Government Departments have
appreciated the scope of such capacity building and particularly
the necessary timescale and resources required.
14. This understanding may help departments
to differentiate between two types of short-term priority—one
involving the immediate defence of vulnerable systems, the other
beginning the longer-term capacity building process outlined above.
15. Defra ACC has responded swiftly to the
various requirements flowing from the Climate Change Act. The
NAO review provides a quantitative understanding of progress on
adaptation within OGDs which indicates that some Departments have
begun to consider their resilience. This is to be welcomed.
16. The approach that has been adopted across
whole Departments may not penetrate sufficiently into the individual
divisions, agencies, etc. Our experience with all types of organisation
has been that the vulnerability to a changing climate is very
specific—specific to locality and specific to activity.
A high-level review at departmental level will typically yield
only generic risks. A more detailed assessment further down the
organisation will yield a richer understanding that will invite
consideration of practical adaptation responses. This will be
the next stage for many Departments.
17. Government statements promote the idea
of "unavoidable climate change". This recognises that
the climate through to the 2040s is already determined by emissions
made last century. This is a helpful concept as it promotes understanding
of adaptation, but we have found that it does not invite serious
consideration of the longer-term commitment to a changing climate
that we will experience in the latter part of the century when
the changes and impacts will be greater. It may help Departments
initially to consider three broad timescales: current vulnerability;
vulnerability to the 2040s; vulnerability beyond 2040 to 2100.
This will not be a one-off exercise and such vulnerabilities must
be the subject of further systematic review.
18. In addressing climate change there is
general support for the integration of "mitigation"
and "adaptation" agendas, particularly within central
Government. UKCIP experience suggests that whilst this joined-up
approach might appear intellectually sound, and remains a longer-term
ambition, in practice it is not always helpful. It is still the
case that generally, where the two climate change themes co-exist,
the "adaptation" component is marginalised. So, for
example, the creation of DECC might have been seized as an opportunity
to bring the two agendas together. In practice, at that time,
the adaptation agenda might well have been marginalised, particularly
given DECC's short-term mitigation priorities. It may be the case
that adaptation is now sufficiently mature to co-exist with mitigation
but this still needs careful consideration.
THE DEVOLVED
ADMINISTRATIONS
19. It appears that the prevailing culture
of the wider political relationships between Westminster and the
Devolved Administrations is limiting the potential for co-operation
on adaptation work. Adaptation is a new topic for many, so, alternative
approaches provide us with real opportunities for experiment,
comparison and shared understanding. Such opportunities exist
in the adaptation work of the Devolved Administrations both between
the three DAs themselves and in both directions between the UK
Government and the DAs. UKCIP is being encouraged by Defra and
the DAs to ensure that tools are developed which are applicable
in all settings and that examples of current practice are widely
drawn. There is further scope here for co-operation at Government
level to exploit the different adaptation experiences derived
from the four different administrations.
REGIONAL GOVERNANCE
AND REGIONAL
CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACTS PARTNERSHIPS
20. Because the climate and weather act
locally, and therefore have local consequences, UKCIP has recognised
the importance of work at a regional scale. It was instrumental
in setting up Regional Climate Change Partnerships which now flourish
in all English Regions and in two of the three DAs. Defra ACC
has recognised the potential of these organisations and provided
useful funds which have enabled enhanced co-ordinating/secretariat
functions and some impressive stakeholder-led regional projects.
21. These partnerships will benefit from
continued and increased support as they have created and sustain
powerful networks of agencies in public and private sectors that
are committed to dealing with resilience to a changing climate
at a regional scale. The outputs from these partnerships are increasingly
valuable. The partnerships are now co-operating, badged as Climate
UK, to share their increasing understanding and work jointly on
some projects.
22. The work of these partnerships is particularly
important as the arrangements for formal regional governance in
England are still very tentative and subject to radical change
or removal. There is no evidence to suggest that Defra ACC will
continue to fund the partnerships.
LOCAL GOVERNMENT
23. Local authorities are regarded by many
as the key delivery agents of adaptation. This reflects the fact
that weather acts locally, that critical services, many of which
are vulnerable to climate change, are delivered by local authorities
and that local authorities have overall, statutory responsibility
(with their LSP partners) for the well-being of local communities.
24. Initially the main driver for climate
change work in local authorities was the Nottingham Declaration
Partnership. Since 2006, the declaration has embraced adaptation
as well as mitigation, UKCIP was an active partner, and the Nottingham
Declaration website provided extensive guidance.
25. Since then the new Performance Framework
has proved to be a greater influence through the National Indicator
NI188 (Planning to Adapt to Climate Change). The use of a "process-based"
indicator has been particularly effective. Despite some high-level
opposition Defra succeeded in securing this approach. Feedback
on NI188 has been very positive. It is strongly recommended that
a similar "process-based" approach is adopted for the
next round of the Performance Framework.
26. UKCIP has been an important part of
the delivery team in a support programme for local authorities
which is planned to continue to the end of the CSR. This has been
delivered, in part, through a series of regional workshops, initially
structured around the sequence of levels in NI188. This has provided
the opportunity to appreciate the challenges faced by local authorities
across the country and the various responses made. In general
we have been impressed by the significant level of engagement
amongst councils, particularly those that have signed up for NI188
as part of their Local Area Agreement.
27. Nevertheless, we have found that councils,
particularly District Councils, have identified a serious lack
of resources (ie staff) in taking forward this agenda. In some
cases this has been resolved through partnership and co-operation
between neighbouring authorities. This approach is to be commended
and encouraged.
28. In terms of the support available to
councils, officers have made critical comparisons with the level
and quality of support provided by the Carbon Trust and Energy
Saving Trust for local authority work on mitigation. UKCIP has
been asked to make representations for similar levels of support
for adaptation.
THE PRIVATE
SECTOR
29. The relationship between Government
and business is notoriously challenging, particularly in identifying
how commercial drivers can be identified in new policy areas.
Adaptation is no different. So, UKCIP has developed messages that
distance the adaptation agenda from the mitigation agenda and
has worked with concepts such as: business risks; business continuity;
market threats and opportunities. Even so, engagement of the private
sector has been slow, with a few exceptions (eg water companies
and insurance) and UKCIP's networks with individual businesses
were characterised as limited to an "alliance of the willing"!
30. This culture has changed, even in the
last 18 months, and we are now approached for guidance by individual
businesses. These have tended to be the larger companies, often
with a global reach, and include several large multi-disciplinary
consultancies working on the built environment.
31. Nevertheless our main work has been
with business-facing organisations. This has included:
— a series of programmes with professional
institutions and trade associations (under the banner of "A
Changing Climate for Business");
— working on sectoral projects with selected
RDAs;
— working with the CBI Adaptation Working
Group on a new adaptation publication to be launched in Spring
2010;
— working with SMEs through business support
organisations such as Business Link, the Federation of Small Businesses;
and
— working with the Institute of Environmental
Management and Assessment (IEMA) including an extensive CPD programme
and a joint publication on adaptation in IEMA's Practitioner Guide
series.
32. The work with individual businesses
has largely been structured around the UKCIP Adaptation Wizard
and associated tools. Further tools are under development based
upon the increasing experience of working with individual companies.
33. Defra ACC now includes a small team
dedicated to working with business. The ACC work programme has
been developed alongside that of UKCIP that maximise the potential
of each team with complementary roles—ACC using its leverage
and influence at a policy level and UKCIP working on a 1-to-1
basis with individual companies.
34. UKCIP and ACC are working together with
the British Standards Institute (BSI) to prepare an adaptation
supplement to accompany existing business standards (such as ISO9000
and ISO14000).
35. As part of the wider programme with
OGDs, ACC will be working with the Department for Business, Innovation
and Skills (BIS) to develop and implement appropriate business
policies.
THIRD SECTOR
36. The third sector has just begun to consider
adaptation and we are aware of some recent initiatives in this
area. These include: a major research programme funded by the
Joseph Rowntree Foundation (Social Implications of Climate Change);
a set of four practical projects co-ordinated by the Baring Foundation;
and a taskforce jointly chaired by Defra, Department of Energy
and Climate Change and Cabinet Office ministers and third sector
representatives. The taskforce aims to identify specific actions
that Government and the third sector can take together to tackle
climate change, environmental problems and sustainable development
more broadly. The Department for Communities and Local Government
will also be represented on the taskforce. The secretariat for
the taskforce is being provided by Green Alliance and the National
Council for Voluntary Organisations (NCVO).
UK CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
(UKCP09)
37. The release of the latest climate projections
for the UK in the 21st century (UKCP09) has proved to be a major
catalyst for engaging stakeholders with the adaptation agenda
as well as providing a powerful technical resource for risk-based
decision-making. There are though several concerns with the new
data set.
38. The projections do not provide us with
direct information on the impacts and consequences of changing
weather. They only suggest how the weather might behave and much
work remains to be done in order to understand impacts and consequences,
and then to explore adaptation options.
39. The probabilistic format will in due
course facilitate sophisticated risk-based decision-making. However,
the format presents considerable complexity for mainstream stakeholders.
It may take several years for the adaptation community and general
policy-makers to agree on how best to use this considerable resource.
40. In particular it is important that expectations
are managed and that some significant policy implications are
investigated and resolved. Government departments do not appear
to have recognised the challenge of incorporating the probabilistic
data into policy and guidance. (For example DCLG responsibilities
on such as Building Regulations and Planning Policy Statements.)
41. The interface between the projections
and policy needs serious attention in many departments. Understanding
in this area is desirable before the brief for a further set of
climate projections is confirmed.
42. The evidence from climate-science, and
from international agreements on emissions, suggests the increasing
possibility of higher levels of emissions than represented in
the UKCP09 projections. We are being asked to provide projections
based upon these higher emissions, using the same format as UKCP09,
in order that stakeholders can understand the UK impacts of higher
global temperatures.
THE FUTURE
OF ADAPTATION
IN THE
UK
43. UK is in advance of other developed
countries in its progress on adaptation.
44. It has probably not yet built sufficient
public or general understanding and appreciation of the need for
adaptation, but this is a slow process and some progress is being
made.
45. There has been significant progress
in some areas in raising the profile of adaptation—work
with local authorities, the latest set of projections, the national
risk assessment, and UKCIP tools and resources are good examples.
46. Adaptation work in Government Departments
needs to include more "bottom-up" understanding to complement
the initial "top-down" approach.
47. It is important that that the distinctive
characteristics and achievements of the previous UKCIP programme
are recognised in defining its future programme and that appropriate
resources are committed to this cause.
10 November 2009
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